美国推出新一轮的单边关税政策 1 2025年4月2日，在美国的"解放日"中，美国政府宣布了国家紧急状态并推出了覆盖所有美国贸易伙伴 的"互惠"(reciprocal)关税政策。而在此之前，已经有多项针对其主要贸易伙伴（如中国，加拿大、墨 西哥等）的关税政策出台，部分已经进入执行状态。 在2024年，美国的进出口逆差超过了1.2万亿美元 1 ，在此情况下这一次的关税体现了两个特点，第 一为覆盖范围广——覆盖所有贸易伙伴，即使美国的贸易顺差国家也被加以10%的关税，第二为有针 对性的差异化税率，美国的主要贸易逆差国家和地区被加征更高的关税。 | 2 | | --- | 美国与中国的关税博弈自2018年始， 特朗普开始第二任期后再次升级 本文选自科尔尼 2025 年 4 月 8 日刊发的行业通讯，现全文分享。 中美作为全球最大的两大经济体，2024年中美双边贸易额约6800亿美元，其中美国对中国出口约 1600亿美元，美国从中国进口约5200亿美元，贸易逆差约3600亿美元 2 。 其中中国主要出口机电产品、纺织鞋服、金属制品等，美国主要出口机械电子、农产品、能源等，因 此这些行业中的企业受关税影响较大。 美国政府 ...

证券研究报告｜数据点评 2025 年 4 月 16 日 一季度宏观数据解读：经济韧性较强 无惧市场风浪 核心观点： 外部关税壁垒升级虽然对出口形成短期压力，但国内政策组合拳发 力下，经济内生增长动能逐步增强，国内经济极具韧性，对全球经 济波动有较强的抵抗性，有利于吸引全球资产配置中国市场。另外， 通胀的整体回暖向好，表现了稳增长，扩内需政策逐步落地的有效 性，对市场预期有正向促进作用。 一、宏观政策组合拳发力生效，国内经济增速有韧性： 一季度财政政策靠前发力，政府债券发行提速。3 月新增政府债券 近 1.5 万亿元，同比多增近 1 万亿元。特别国债发行 5000 亿元补充 银行资本，预计撬动 4 万亿元信贷增量。货币政策保持合理宽松， M2 增速稳定维持在 7.0%，信贷结构也在持续优化，小微企业贷款、 绿色贷款等重点领域得到了更大力度的支持。 GDP 增速表现亮眼。一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，这一成绩不仅高于 去年同期，更是在全球主要经济体中脱颖而出，展现出中国经济强 大的韧性和活力。工业增加值增长 6.5%，服务业增长 5.3%，固定资 产投资增长 4.2%，社会消费品零售总额增长 4.6%。3 ...

Core Insights - The policies aimed at boosting consumer demand are showing positive effects, with March's consumption market reflecting a favorable trend due to both policy and seasonal factors [2][6][12] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a smaller decline than the seasonal average, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and market stability [3][7][12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline, but some industries are witnessing positive price changes due to improved supply-demand structures [4][9][12] Consumer Market - In March, the CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing significantly compared to previous years [6][12] - Core CPI showed a notable recovery, increasing by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by rising service prices and industrial consumer goods prices [2][6][12] - The price of household appliances and gold jewelry has risen significantly, exceeding the average increase over the past decade [2][6] Industrial Production - The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by international input factors and seasonal declines in energy demand [4][12] - High-tech industries are experiencing rapid development, leading to improved supply-demand structures and positive price changes in certain sectors [4][9] External Factors - The U.S. has implemented a 10% baseline tariff on global imports and specific tariffs on 60 countries, including 34% on China, which may impact international trade dynamics [4][13][25] - Countries are responding differently to the U.S. tariff policies, with China retaliating and the EU preparing for negotiations [4][13] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate consumer demand and support economic recovery, including fiscal measures and monetary policy adjustments [22][23][24] - The focus will be on enhancing domestic demand, promoting equipment upgrades, and improving the overall economic environment [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff shocks on global capital markets, particularly focusing on the Chinese A-share market and the perspectives of major financial institutions like UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley regarding investment strategies in the current environment [1][2]. Group 1: UBS Insights - UBS analyst Meng Lei suggests that the recent movements in the A-share market may have already priced in potential negative impacts from tariffs, referencing historical data from 2018 where major indices experienced about a 3% decline on the first day of tariff news but stabilized thereafter [3][4]. - Current valuation levels in the A-share market provide a cushion against downside risks, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index and all A-shares having static P/E ratios of 11.7x and 13.8x, respectively, both below their five-year averages by 0.7 standard deviations [4]. - The market's stability requires significant net inflows of capital, with institutions like Central Huijin increasing their holdings in ETFs to support market stability [4][5]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs Perspective - Goldman Sachs' chief strategist Liu Jinjun emphasizes that U.S. tariffs affect the fair value of Chinese stocks through multiple variables, including direct income shocks to exporters and potential policy responses [6]. - Liu anticipates that the market may experience downward pressure until trade and policy uncertainties are resolved, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the short term [6]. Group 3: Morgan Stanley Analysis - Morgan Stanley's Laura Wang indicates that the A-share market is more resilient and should be viewed as a hedging or diversification option amid ongoing market volatility [7][8]. - Wang notes that the sensitivity of A-share investors to policy changes is lower due to the predominance of retail investors, which may lead to more stable performance compared to offshore markets [8].

以下文章来源于36氪未来消费 ，作者贺哲馨 36氪未来消费 . 在这里看到消费的未来。36氪旗下官方账号。 一份幸存者样本的探讨 。 文 ｜ 贺哲馨 编辑 ｜ 乔芊 来源｜ 36氪未来消费（ID：lslb168） 封面来源 ｜ pexels 根据特朗普政府4月2日公布的关税清单，美国将对中国、柬埔寨、越南、印尼等多个国家加征超过30%的"对等关税"，这些国家是美国乃止全球服装鞋帽 的主要进口来源地。 话音一落，包括耐克、阿迪达斯、lululemon、斯凯奇等运动公司的股价应声下挫，奢侈品公司更是集体跌到谷底。美国是全球最大的时尚和奢侈品消费 市场，每年消化全球800亿美元的纺织品，更是全球快时尚和运动品牌的命脉。 截至发稿，仅有少数几个国家和地区对所有美国进口产品实施零关税，来换取特朗普政府的"从轻处罚"，这一表态无助于上述公司修复股价，徒令消费者 感到担忧，那些挂在货架上的廉价T恤衫会不会成为历史？对于企业而言，又将否迎来新的游戏规则？ 复杂的供应链 待多元化的采购模式 "当东莞的纺织厂开始安装自动裁床时，越南的工人正在学习操作兄弟牌缝纫机——这像是一场接力赛，只是没人知道终点在哪里。"一位从业二十年的纺 ...

关税战下，时尚企业幸存者样本探讨。 作者 | 贺哲馨 编辑 | 乔芊 根据特朗普政府4月2日公布的关税清单，美国将对中国、柬埔寨、越南、印尼等多个国家加征超过30%的"对等关税"，这些国家是美国乃止全 球服装鞋帽的主要进口来源地。 话音一落，包括耐克、阿迪达斯、lululemon、斯凯奇等运动公司的股价应声下挫，奢侈品公司更是集体跌到谷底。美国是全球最大的时尚和奢 侈品消费市场，每年消化全球800亿美元的纺织品，更是全球快时尚和运动品牌的命脉。 截至发稿，仅有少数几个国家和地区对所有美国进口产品实施零关税，来换取特朗普政府的"从轻处罚"，这一表态无助于上述公司修复股价，徒 令消费者感到担忧，那些挂在货架上的廉价T恤衫会不会成为历史？对于企业而言，又将否迎来新的游戏规则？ 复杂的供应链，待多元化的采购模式 "当东莞的纺织厂开始安装自动裁床时，越南的工人正在学习操作兄弟牌缝纫机——这像是一场接力赛，只是没人知道终点在哪里。"一位从业二 十年的纺织业顾问曾这样向36氪描述当下的产业迁徙。 从18世纪英国曼彻斯特的棉纺厂，到21世纪越南胡志明市的工业区，纺织叶的生产线如同候鸟般不断寻找新的落脚点。2008年金融危机后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Make in India" initiative is driving a 6% year-on-year growth in smartphone shipments in 2024, primarily fueled by the export growth of Apple and Samsung, which together account for approximately 94% of India's smartphone exports [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Samsung maintains its leading position in India's smartphone manufacturing with a 7% year-on-year growth in shipments, supported by a 13% increase in exports [4][7]. - Foxconn Hon Hai's shipments in India grew by 19% year-on-year, driven by the strong performance of iPhone 14, iPhone 15, and iPhone 13 models [4][7]. - Tata Electronics emerged as the fastest-growing smartphone manufacturer in India in 2024, with a remarkable 107% year-on-year growth, largely attributed to the iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 [4][7]. Group 2: Future Projections - The Indian smartphone manufacturing sector is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, bolstered by government initiatives and the diversification of global supply chains [5][6]. - The local value addition in smartphone manufacturing is anticipated to increase continuously, making India an attractive manufacturing hub due to its large domestic market and low labor costs [5][6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Vivo ranks second in the market with a 14% year-on-year growth, benefiting from the expansion of offline retail channels and a strengthened distribution network [7]. - OPPO faced challenges in 2024, with a 34% decline in shipments due to intense market competition and increased reliance on contract manufacturing [7]. - Dixon became the largest manufacturer in the overall mobile device market, driven by partnerships with Transsion and Motorola, achieving a 39% year-on-year growth in smartphone shipments [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing tariff disputes between the US and China, indicating a need for both countries to find a dynamic balance based on mutual interests amid escalating tensions [1][2] - It emphasizes that despite a 30% decline in China's exports to the US due to tariffs, the Chinese economy demonstrates resilience through domestic demand expansion, market diversification, and supply chain restructuring [2][4] - The future of China-US trade is expected to shift towards a "Global South" framework, compensating for short-term adjustments in trade relations [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Quantitative Analysis of Tariff Impact - Tariffs have led to changes in trade volume and structure, with a projected 30% decline in actual trade scale when adjusted for inflation [4][5] - Three scenarios for future trade are outlined: optimistic (5%-7% annual growth), neutral (2%-3% annual decline), and pessimistic (10%-15% annual decline) [4][5] - The report notes that tariffs have accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains, with significant investments in Mexico and Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [5][8] 2. Economic Resilience of China - The contribution of exports to GDP has decreased from 11% in 2017 to 6% in 2024, with domestic consumption becoming the main growth driver [10][11] - China's self-sufficiency in semiconductors has improved from 15% in 2018 to 35% in 2024, showcasing advancements in technology and innovation [11] - Regional economic strategies, such as the Yangtze River Delta integration, have strengthened domestic supply chains and reduced reliance on foreign components [11] 3. Future Development Trends in China-US Trade - The report discusses the potential for a new trade system under the "Global South" framework, with significant increases in exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets [12][14] - It highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and trade policies to stabilize the economy and mitigate the effects of tariffs [14] - The ongoing tariff disputes are expected to lead to a cautious approach in future negotiations, with both sides seeking a new balance in trade relations [15][18]

每周思考总第619期 《 A股仍在政策窗口期 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月9日累计收益6.11%。 上周市场重回上行，沪深300指数涨幅1.39%，上证综指周涨幅1.56%，中证500指数周涨幅 2.63%。 上周我们标题观点提示"A股节奏以我为主"，实际A股在海外美股标普单周大跌3%背景下， 依旧实现中阳反弹，与我们预判吻合 。 基本面上，1-2国内进出口平稳，美欧关系出现间隙。 国内方面，上周继续披露1-2月多项经济数 据，进出口整体保持高度韧性符合我们预期，此前已发布的PMI数据预示了2月关税对中国经济影响 依旧在可控范围内，周末发布的物价数据虽双双低于市场预期，但考虑到春节期间物价季节波动因 素，数据趋势仍有待后续再确认，全国两会也给出全年经济目标及财政赤字指引，国内经济整体平稳 可控；海外方面， 上周我们提到了俄乌停战谈判对全球地缘政治关系的深刻长远影响，简要更新谈 判进程，美方宣布暂停对乌军援，俄方加大进攻力度并基本保卫乌军库尔斯克方面突进主力1万人， 战场形势的发展与我们上周给出的推演基本完全一致 ，以上都是 ...

Overview - The report highlights the importance of inclusive access in the built environment, emphasizing that accessibility is not only a compliance obligation but also a social mission [30][31][32] - It notes that by 2070, nearly 60% of the global population will reside in urban areas, necessitating accessible environments to accommodate diverse needs [30][31] - The report identifies the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework that includes universal accessibility provisions alongside structural resilience, fire safety, and sustainability [45][46] Introduction - The introduction discusses the evolution of accessibility standards in response to the needs of individuals with varying abilities, particularly following significant social movements post-World Wars [38][42] - It outlines the challenges faced by diverse populations, including the elderly, children, and individuals with disabilities, in accessing built environments [30][31][32] - The report emphasizes the role of global efforts and legislation in shaping accessibility standards to meet the needs of all users [36][42] Goals - The report aims to provide a universal accessibility checklist designed to assist building professionals in enhancing accessibility in the built environment [45][46] - It serves as a practical tool for policymakers and regulatory bodies to evaluate and improve existing accessibility regulations [45][46] - The checklist is intended to be used in conjunction with other modules focusing on fire safety, green building, and structural resilience [47][48] Guidelines for Using the Checklist - A systematic approach is outlined for reviewing accessibility regulations, guiding practitioners through a series of steps to ensure comprehensive evaluations [49][50] - The report stresses the importance of including experts familiar with accessibility issues in the review process to enhance the quality of assessments [50][51] - It provides a framework for identifying gaps in existing regulations and offers technical recommendations for improvement [64][66] Key Concepts in Universal Accessibility Components - The report identifies six key components of universal accessibility in building codes, including access routes, emergency egress, and facilities [72][73] - Each component is broken down into subcomponents, detailing specific requirements for ensuring accessibility in various building types [76][77] - The report emphasizes the need for clear and precise language in regulations to facilitate effective implementation and compliance [57][58]