Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1290.5, up 2.38%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No.5 coking coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. The macro - level policy adjusted the tariff on US imports. Fundamentally, the mine's operating rate declined for three consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, with neutral inventory and seasonal increase in total inventory. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. [2] - On November 6, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1776.5, up 2.07%. The third round of price increase for coke in the spot market was implemented. Macro - level data showed that 21 troubled real - estate enterprises in the Chinese mainland had debt restructuring approved or completed. Fundamentally, the molten iron output continued to decline seasonally, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1290.50元/吨，环比上涨22.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1776.50元/吨，环比上涨23.50元。JM期货合约持仓量为984216.00手，环比增加45197.00手；J期货合约持仓量为49120.00手，环比减少135.00手。焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 57205.00手，环比增加14755.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5144.00手，环比增加470.00手。JM5 - 1月合约价差为54.50元/吨，环比下降9.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为135.50元/吨，环比下降6.50元。焦煤仓单为400.00张，环比减少500.00张；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，环比无变化。[2] Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1170.00元/吨，环比上涨5.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1830.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元。俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货价格为158.50美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元。京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1710.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元。京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1860.00元/吨，山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1610.00元/吨，环比上涨40.00元；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1330.00元/吨，环比无变化。JM主力合约基差为319.50元/吨，环比上涨18.00元；J主力合约基差为53.50元/吨，环比上涨31.50元。[2] Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤日产量为27.50万吨，环比增加1.00万吨；精煤周库存为295.00万吨，环比增加10.60万吨。产能利用率为0.38%，环比增加0.01%。原煤月产量为41150.50万吨，环比增加2100.80万吨。煤及褐煤月进口量为4600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨。523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为186.30万吨，环比减少4.00万吨。16个港口进口焦煤周库存为513.89万吨，环比增加6.71万吨。[2] Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤周总库存为1052.70万吨，环比增加23.00万吨；焦炭周库存为59.87万吨，环比增加1.23万吨。全国247家钢厂炼焦煤周库存为796.32万吨，环比增加13.36万吨；焦炭周库存为629.05万吨，环比减少4.11万吨。独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.96天，环比增加0.19天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.57天，环比增加0.50天。炼焦煤月进口量为1092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；焦炭及半焦炭月出口量为54.00万吨，环比减少1.00万吨。炼焦煤月产量为3975.92万吨，环比增加279.06万吨；焦炭月产量为4255.60万吨，环比减少4.10万吨。独立焦企产能利用率为73.44%，环比下降0.03%；独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元。[2] Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.73%，环比下降3.00%；高炉炼铁产能利用率为88.59%，环比下降1.33%。粗钢月产量为7349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨。[2] Industry News - 国务院关税税则委员会自2025年11月10日13时01分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施，一年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。郑商所发布动力煤期货2611合约有关事项公告，交易保证金标准为50%，涨跌停板幅度为10%，非期货公司会员或者客户单日开仓交易的最大数量为20手。泰国商业部外贸厅对原产于中国的热轧钢板反倾销案发起反规避调查。瑞典央行维持政策利率在1.75%不变。[2]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory accumulation inflection point, and with weak macro sentiment, rubber prices have further declined. If raw material supply in the main producing areas goes smoothly, there is room for further decline; if not, the rubber price is expected to run between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 5th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,350 yuan, down 250 yuan (-1.71%) from the previous day. The all - milk basis decreased by 225 yuan (-81.82%), and the Thai standard mixed rubber quote dropped by 50 yuan (-0.35%) [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan (-3.23%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan (-11.76%), and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan (21.43%) [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451.50 (unit not clear), down 26.00 (-5.45%); Indonesia's was 195.00, down 3.40 (-1.71%); India's was 81.70, up 2.70 (3.42%); and China's was 122.30, up 8.60. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires was 73.41, down 0.26, and that of all - steel tires was 65.34, down 0.24. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295.40 (in ten thousand pieces), up 9.10% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of November 5th, the bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 (3.57%), and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 2,015 (4.73%) [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For soda ash, the price is trending weakly, with obvious over - supply. The operation should be bearish. For glass, in the short - term, the market has support, and short - term long opportunities for low - level rebounds can be captured. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On November 5th, the South China glass quote was 1,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.83%); the glass 2601 contract was 1,097 yuan, down 8 yuan (-0.72%); and the 01 basis increased by 8 yuan (32.00%) [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The 01 - 4 spread of soda ash decreased by 6.0 yuan (-5.41%). The soda ash 2601 contract was 1,195 yuan, up 6.0 yuan (0.50%); and the 2605 contract was 1,282 yuan, up 2.0 yuan (0.17%) [3]. - **Supply**: In late October, the soda ash开工率 was 86.89%, down 1.72%, and the weekly output was 75.76 (in ten thousand tons), down 1.71%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume was 88,540.00 tons, down 750.0 tons (-0.84%) [3]. - **Inventory**: As of late October, the glass factory - warehouse inventory was 6,579.00 (in ten thousand heavy boxes), up 4.72%; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 170.20 (in ten thousand tons), up 2.54%; and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 67.69 (in ten thousand tons), down 3.18% [3]. - **Real Estate Data Month - on - Month**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the log futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The inverted price between the domestic and foreign markets provides some support for the import cost, limiting the downward space of the market [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On November 5th, the log 2511 contract was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.0 yuan (0.26%); the 11 - 01 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - **Import Cost Calculation**: The import theoretical cost was 812.97 yuan, up 6.84 yuan (1%) [4]. - **Supply**: From November 3rd - 9th, 2025, 17 ships carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 2 ships (13% week - on - week), with a total arrival volume of about 57.1 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 7.7 (in ten thousand cubic meters) (16% week - on - week) [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31st, the national coniferous log inventory was 288 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 4 (in ten thousand cubic meters) from the previous week. The daily average log delivery volume was 6.28 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 0.16 (in ten thousand cubic meters) [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 yuan/ton, long positions can be considered. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of the November contracts [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On November 5th, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) decreased by 135 yuan (-23.89%) [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 25 yuan (-6.25%), and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan (-14.29%) [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In the month, the national industrial silicon production was 45.22 (in ten thousand tons), up 7.46%; Xinjiang's production was 23.56 (in ten thousand tons), up 15.94%; Yunnan's was 5.38 (in ten thousand tons), down 9.60%; and Sichuan's was 5.19 (in ten thousand tons), down 1.91%. The national开工率 was 61.94%, down 9.98% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: As of the reporting period, Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.03 (in ten thousand tons) (-0.28%), Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 (in ten thousand tons) (1.47%), and the social inventory decreased by 0.10 (in ten thousand tons) (-0.18%) [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In November, the supply pressure eases, but the demand also decreases, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. In terms of trading strategies, on the futures side, long positions can be taken when the price approaches the lower limit of the range; on the options side, put options around 50,000 can be sold to earn premiums; on the equity side, photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, and related stocks can be held [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 5th, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock remained unchanged at 52,200.00 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 360.00 yuan (23.76%) [6]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price was 53,352 yuan, down 360 yuan (-0.67%); the near - month - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 25 yuan (-1.15%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 14.24 (unit not clear), down 3.33%, and the polysilicon production was 2.82 (in ten thousand tons), down 4.41%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 13.40 (in ten thousand tons), up 3.08%, the import volume was 0.13 (in ten thousand tons), up 28.46%, and the export volume was 0.21 (in ten thousand tons), down 28.16% [6]. - **Inventory Change**: As of the reporting period, the polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (in ten thousand tons), up 1.16%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93 (unit not clear), up 2.49% [6].

Report Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: It shows characteristics of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with high inventory in Hangzhou. The fundamentals are generally balanced but weak. The significant decline in hot metal production weakens the support for raw materials. It has limited upward and downward drivers, maintaining a range - bound operation in the medium term. Currently, it has fallen near the previous low, testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Both apparent demand and production have rebounded, and inventory has decreased slightly but remains higher than the same period in previous years. The large decline in hot metal production weakens the demand support for raw materials. It operates in a range in the medium term and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: This week, there is a significant week - on - week decrease in hot metal due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and loss - driven maintenance of some steel mills. Steel mill maintenance has increased, and the sustainability of maintenance needs to be monitored. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ore has increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. With the exhaustion of short - term macro - positive factors, the ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [1][6]. - **Coke**: The third round of price increase is expected to be fully implemented, and there are differences in the market regarding the fourth round. Recently, the profits of coke enterprises have improved slightly but are still mostly in a loss state. The hot metal production has declined from a high level, and the steel mill inventory is at a moderately low level, with short - term replenishment enthusiasm. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it follows the coking coal price in a range - bound operation [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: On the supply side, the coal mine operating rate has decreased slightly due to safety inspections and underground problems. There is still uncertainty in Mongolia's political situation, and the subsequent port traffic needs to be monitored. The exchange has issued an opinion announcement on the delivery quality standard, but the applicable contract is not clear, and it has limited impact on listed contracts. Currently, coal mine shipments are still good, and the short - term supply - demand pattern remains tight, with prices expected to be strong [1][12]. - **Silicomanganese**: The production area supply is still at a high level in the same period, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase compared to the previous period. The price of manganese ore has risen slightly, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price, but it is still cautiously bearish [1][16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The production area supply remains at a high level, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has increased significantly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the re - warehousing situation after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have become loose, and there is upward pressure on short - term coal prices, so it is treated bearishly [1][16]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3024 with a decline of 20; Rebar 05 is at 3094 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is at 3133 with a decline of 11. Hot Rolled Coil 01 is at 3253 with a decline of 12; Hot Rolled Coil 05 is at 3260 with a decline of 12; Hot Rolled Coil 10 is at 3283 with a decline of 13. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also show certain declines [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For rebar, it has limited upward and downward drivers, maintaining a range - bound operation in the medium term and may fluctuate at low levels near the support of 3000. For hot - rolled coil, it operates in a range in the medium term and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Not provided in the given text. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish. Due to production reduction disturbances and increased supply, the ore price is under pressure [7]. Coke - **Price Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1753.0, up 24.0 from the previous value; the 01 basis is - 108, down 24.0. Other contract prices and basis also show corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions have increased to varying degrees [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and there are differences in the fourth - round price increase [10]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1268.5, up 15.5 from the previous value; the 01 basis is 331, down 15.5. Other contract prices and basis also show corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions remain stable [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and prices are expected to be strong [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 5776, up 22; Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5560, up 50. Spot prices in different regions and basis also show corresponding changes [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For silicomanganese, it is cautiously bearish as the cost side provides some short - term support. For ferrosilicon, it is bearishly treated due to loose fundamentals and upward pressure on coal prices [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodities market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on supply - demand, and details on capital flows and macro - economic data. It offers insights into the palm oil, soybean, and other related markets both internationally and domestically, as well as key economic indicators from the US and China [1][3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 01 was 4122.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.84% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Brent crude oil contract 01 on ICE closed at 63.55, down 1.24% from the previous day and 0.86% overnight [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil contract 12 closed at 59.64, down 1.31% from the previous day and 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT soybean contract 01 closed at 1134.50, up 1.27% from the previous day and 0.58% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 100.17, down 0.04% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8740, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8350, with a basis of 204 and a decrease of 18 from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 3030, with a basis of - 10 and an increase of 21 from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Areas Weather - In central Brazil, showers will be active until next week, which is beneficial for crops. In South Rio Grande do Sul/Paraná, there will be regional showers until Thursday, scattered showers on Friday, and regional showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday and near to below normal from Friday to Saturday [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31 increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high [7]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons due to increased domestic inventory, weak food industry demand, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds [8]. - Analysts expect that as of the week ending October 30, US 2025/26 soybean export sales will net increase by 400,000 - 2 million tons, soybean meal by 50,000 - 450,000 tons, and soybean oil by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 12,300 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons or 47% compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 132,100 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons compared to the previous day [13]. 3.3.4 International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5% [14]. - The US ADP employment in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 [14]. 3.3.5 Domestic Macroeconomic News - On November 5, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0901, up 16 points (yuan depreciation) [16]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan due to 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [16]. 3.4 Capital Flows - On November 5, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 4.605 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 132 million yuan, including 1.087 billion yuan for agricultural product futures, 937 million yuan for chemical futures, and 773 million yuan for black - series futures, while metal futures had a net outflow of 2.664 billion yuan. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 4.278 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net outflow of 30 million yuan [20]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No specific information provided in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, the southwest region is reducing production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The current industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. With its low valuation, there may be upward space if there is policy support [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with high inventory pressure. Although production has started to decline recently and may decrease further in November, downstream production schedules may also weaken. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was volatile. The main contract 2601 opened at 8900 yuan/ton and closed at 9020 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.06%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 232,849 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,195 lots, an increase of 372 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton [1]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. In November, the supply change mainly lies in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions, with the combined production in these two regions expected to decline by more than 50%, and the national total supply is expected to drop below 400,000 tons (a 12% decline) [1]. Consumption - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. Affected by a sharp price increase of a Shandong monomer factory last week, some other monomer factories slightly increased their quotes by 100 - 300 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price remained at a low level [2]. Strategy - Short - term range trading is recommended. For dry - season contracts, one can go long on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 53,500 yuan/ton and closing at 53,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 125,062 lots (128,876 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 175,236 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (a 1.16% month - on - month increase), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW (a 2.49% month - on - month increase). The weekly polysilicon production was 28,200 tons (a 4.41% month - on - month decrease), and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW (a 3.32% month - on - month decrease) [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will significantly decline [5]. Strategy - Short - term range trading is recommended. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited downside on corrections, and there is potential for an upward breakout if the social inventory drawdown progresses smoothly. The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum is not in surplus, and consumption is showing good growth, with the potential for a real peak consumption season in November - December. For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. For aluminum alloy, the report is also cautiously bullish [6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; East China aluminum spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,160 yuan/ton, with the spot premium unchanged at - 160 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium is - 145 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 5, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opened at 21,395 yuan/ton, closed at 21,395 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,440 yuan/ton and a low of 21,235 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 193,349 lots, and the open interest was 225,136 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,194 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 550,450 tons, down 2,125 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 5, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,985 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,995 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 318 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 5, 2025, the main alumina futures contract opened at 2,765 yuan/ton, closed at 2,772 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a decrease of 0.11%, with a high of 2,780 yuan/ton and a low of 2,752 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 216,397 lots, and the open interest was 421,899 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 5, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil - grade scrap aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical scrap aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 58,700 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,120 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 120 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland overseas has reduced production due to an electrical equipment accident, affecting about 200,000 tons of production capacity. Even with the expectation of new and restarted production overseas, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is not in surplus. In terms of consumption, although the peak consumption season has been mediocre in terms of social inventory, the aluminum - water ratio has reached a record high of 77%, indicating good consumption growth and is expected to enter the real peak consumption season in November - December. The smooth progress of Sino - US negotiations is a positive factor, and there are still macro - positive factors. Aluminum price corrections are unlikely to be deep. Attention should be paid to the pace of social inventory drawdown. If the drawdown is smooth, there is potential for aluminum prices to rise [6] Alumina - A northwest aluminum plant purchased 10,000 tons of alumina at a price of 2,990 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The bauxite shipment from Guinea is expected to resume, and the Ningba Mine has started barge operations to ship 1.5 million tons of inventory. The supply pressure of bauxite remains. The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward - looking alumina due to rich profits and winter - storage demand, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The cost side still has a small downward space, and the reduction in ore prices has not improved the alumina smelting loss. The supply side has not seen large - scale production cuts, and there is still an expectation of new production capacity. Currently, there are few positive factors and expectations in the fundamental data [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and cautiously bullish on aluminum alloy. Arbitrage: Long the near - term and short the far - term in SHFE aluminum [9]

山东小果客商增加，河南红枣价降采购下滑 农产品日报 | 2025-11-06 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8940元/吨，较前一日变动+79元/吨，幅度+0.89%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1440，较前一日变动-79；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-640，较前一日变动-79。 近期市场资讯，晚富士产区入库工作继续进行，西部入库陆续接近尾声。山东地面交易伴随质量下滑价格略有偏 弱，好货价格维持稳硬，果农顺价卖货为主，栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.5元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，以质论价。甘肃入库工作收尾，果农入库略加快；陕西产区入库工作陆续开 展，果农一般货源入库增加。目前交易价格来看，陕西洛川产区晚富士70#以上半商品3.8-4.5元/斤附近，70#以上 统货3.4-3.8元/斤，订园价格3.5-3.8元/斤主流。多以质论价。甘肃静宁产区70#以上山地商品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a pattern of high inventory and oversupply, with nickel prices expected to remain in low - level oscillations. A significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter may lead to a nickel price rebound [1][2]. - The stainless - steel market shows weak demand recovery and loose cost support, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, a - 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,448 (+577) lots, and the open interest was 115,164 (-3296) lots. The price fluctuated within a range of about 1,390 yuan, with a significant narrowing compared to previous days. The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 1,977 tons to 32,929 tons, and the LME nickel inventory, although unchanged at 252,750 tons, had a cumulative increase of 20,300 tons in the past month and an 8.79% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is a gap between supply and demand, and market sentiment is cautious. In the Philippines, increased rainfall and the typhoon "Seagull" may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the large price drop, spot trading was good, and the spot premium of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,555 yuan/ton and closed at 12,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 90,380 (-21,042) lots, and the open interest was 74,412 (-4,171) lots. Affected by Shanghai nickel and the black - metal sector, the price showed a weak oscillation, with a fluctuation range of about 100 yuan, further narrowing from the previous day [2][3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism intensified, spot prices were generally lowered, but trading remained weak. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 919.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The fundamentals of pure benzene remain weak as port inventories rise again, indicating weak downstream提货 demand, while domestic pure benzene operating rates have bottomed out and rebounded [1][3] - For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, factory inventory pressure eases, port inventories start to decline, and the port basis rebounds slightly with improved low - level trading [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, spot - M2 paper - cargo spread, and inter - period spreads of pure benzene and EB [8][11][16] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover various production profits and price spreads such as naphtha processing fee, pure benzene's FOB and CFR price spreads, and styrene's non - integrated production profit and import profit [20][23][32] 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [39][41][44] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [50][52][54] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products [58][62][71] Strategies - Unilateral: None [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Go long on the spread of EB2512 - EB2601 at low levels [4] - Cross - Product: None [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report The current market shows a situation where spot prices of lithium carbonate have slightly declined, and the futures market is oscillating. With continuous inventory reduction and a change in the basis after a significant drop in the futures price, both the spot and futures markets are supported by the consumer side. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may shift from reduction to accumulation, leading to a potential decline in the futures market [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 78,440 yuan/ton and closed at 79,140 yuan/ton, a -0.45% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 515,731 lots, and the open interest was 453,260 lots, down from 457,374 lots the previous day. The current basis is 1,800 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,830 lots, a change of 340 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 78,700 - 82,300 yuan/ton, a -400 yuan/ton change from the previous day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,900 - 78,700 yuan/ton, also a -400 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 925 US dollars/ton, a -20 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Lithium salt plants are operating at a high utilization rate, with both spodumene and salt - lake production ends maintaining over 60% utilization. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November will remain at the same level as in October [1]. - **Demand**: The power market for new energy vehicles (both commercial and passenger) is growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [1]. - **Company News**: On November 5, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. reported that its 40,000 - ton lithium salt project is in the trial - operation stage, and the annual production target of 3,000 tons is expected to be exceeded. Its subsidiary, Lan Ke Lithium Industry, has a total production capacity of about 40,000 tons after technological upgrades [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [3]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are provided [4].