美国7月标普全球制造业及服务业PMI初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

尽管面临与美国迫在眉睫的贸易摊牌，欧元区经济仍在7月展现出韧性，私营部门活动以近一年来最快的速度扩张。 根据标普全球周四公布的数据，欧元区7月综合采购经理人指数（PMI）从6月的50.6升至51，高于分析师预期的50.7，进一步站稳荣枯线50以上。 这一增长主要得益于持续三年的制造业衰退接近尾声，同时服务业出人意料地加速增长。 与此同时，德国私营部门活动连续第五个月保持扩张，主要得益于制造业出现复苏迹象及服务业的企稳；法国私营部门活动连续第11个月出现萎 缩，受国内的政治僵局的影响。 欧元区7月PMI超预期扩张，经济韧性显现 对于欧洲央行而言，最新的PMI数据虽然带来一丝宽慰。 具体而言，欧元区7月新订单在连续13个月萎缩后趋于稳定，服务业新业务增加，但制造业新订单再次下降，出口订单也持续下滑。就业方面，欧 元区企业连续第五个月增加员工，主要得益于服务业的招聘，尽管德国和法国的员工数量仍在下降。积压工作量持续减少但速度放缓。 物价方面，投入成本通胀放缓至九个月低点，制造业成本持续下降。产出价格与6月持平，德国销售价格通胀放缓，但法国和欧元区其他地区加 速。库存和供应链方面，制造业采购活动降幅收窄，库存减少速度 ...

金十数据7月24日讯，标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示， 7月英国PMI数据显 示，在进入下半年之际，英国经济仍在艰难扩张。产出增长放缓，表明经济季度增长率仅为0.1%，未 来几个月的风险倾向于下行。7月产出增长乏力反映了订单情况恶化、商业信心低迷和成本上升等不利 因素，所有这些因素都与去年秋季预算案中宣布的政策变化的持续影响以及地缘政治不确定性的广泛不 稳定影响密切相关。 尤其令人担忧的是预算措施对就业的持续影响，7月员工人数再次大幅减少。疲软 的增长轨迹和就业岗位的持续减少将增加英国央行在8月会议上再次降息的压力。 英国7月PMI显示增长放缓 未来风险倾向下行 ...

智通财经7月24日电，德国7月制造业PMI初值为49.2，预期49.5；7月服务业PMI初值为50.1，预期50。 ...

Market Influence - Over a decade ago, Chinese economic indicators held little sway in overseas investment decisions, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) being the primary exception [1] - Currently, the focus on China's economic data, including CPI, M2, imports/exports, and unemployment rate, is second only to that of the United States [1]

印度7月服务业PMI初值 59.8，预期60，前值60.4。 ...

标普全球7月24日发布数据显示，日本7月标普全球综合PMI报51.5，日本7月标普全球服务业PMI报 53.5，日本7月标普全球制造业PMI报48.8。 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core price level is gradually recovering, with financial support for the real economy increasing, indicating a gradual accumulation of internal economic momentum under policy support [1] - In June 2025, the CPI rose from -0.1% to 0.1%, while the PPI decreased from -3.3% to -3.6% [1] - The manufacturing PMI increased from 49.5% to 49.7%, showing slight improvement in manufacturing activity [1] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The core CPI growth has been continuously recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, the highest in nearly 14 months [4] - Factors contributing to the core CPI recovery include rising gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [4] Group 3: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [7] - The decrease in PPI is attributed to slower construction in real estate and infrastructure, as well as an oversupply of industrial raw materials [7] Group 4: PMI Insights - The PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating seasonal recovery [10] - Among 21 surveyed industries, 11 are in the expansion zone, reflecting improved manufacturing sentiment [10] Group 5: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 3.7% in May, with real estate development investment declining by 12.9% [13] - The decline in real estate sales and investment growth is contributing to a negative feedback loop with falling housing prices and PPI [13] Group 6: Credit Performance - New RMB loans in June amounted to 22.4 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 6.2 billion yuan [16] - The strong credit performance is driven by multiple factors, including seasonal increases in lending and effective financial policies [16] Group 7: M2 Growth - M2 growth accelerated to 8.3% in June, the highest in nearly 15 months, with a notable narrowing of the M1-M2 gap [20] - The increase in M2 and M1 indicates improved financial support for the real economy, although M1 growth remains relatively low [20]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，6 月PMI为 49.7%，较上月上升 0.2 个百分点，连续三个月位于收缩 区间，6 月财新PMI 为 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点，与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。7月 14日，美威胁在50天内对俄原油实施二级制裁。18日工信部宣布将推动包括石化行业在内的重点 行业调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能的稳增长方案。供需端，农膜淡季，包装膜略有好转，下游 需求整体弱势。当前LL交割品现货价7220（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差-70，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.7万吨（+3.3） ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, with cost - demand game and tariff policies as the main logics, the market is expected to be volatile today due to factors like OPEC's continuous production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - For PP, also under the influence of cost - demand game and tariff policies, the market is expected to be volatile today considering OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with continuous production increase for four months. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current LL delivery spot price is 7210 (-50), showing a generally bearish situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2509 contract is - 11, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to factors such as OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new production capacity release and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The current PP delivery spot price is 7180 (-0), with a generally bearish situation. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2509 contract is 165, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.4%, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Spot and Futures Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7210 (-50), the 2509 contract price is 7221 (-63), and the basis is - 11 [4][10]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (-0), the 2509 contract price is 7015 (-52), and the basis is 165 [7][10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].