Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 220.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.5 billion yuan due to 242 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - Last week, the central bank's net liquidity injection was 102.1 billion yuan, with 182 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing on June 17 [1] - As the end of the quarter approaches, there has been a slight increase in funding stratification, but the overall liquidity remains loose, with overnight funding rates rising slightly [1] Group 2 - This week, the scale of reverse repos maturing will rise to 960.3 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds will increase to 789.8 billion yuan, the highest level since late April [2] - Concerns about cross-quarter liquidity may arise due to the concentration of government bond payments and the issuance of large amounts of certificates of deposit [2] - The central bank's liquidity support will be crucial for maintaining stability in the banking sector's liabilities as the quarter-end approaches [2] Group 3 - Recent actions by the central bank, including buyout reverse repos, aim to maintain ample liquidity, with expectations for social financing to continue to rebound [3] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, indicating a lack of incentive for commercial banks to lower rates further [3] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose liquidity stance to counter potential external demand pressures [3] Group 4 - Future policies will be adjusted based on economic changes, with potential for increased efforts to stabilize growth in the second half of the year [4] - The establishment of new policy financial tools is anticipated to boost investment by serving as project capital [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic cycle and asset pricing globally have deviated from traditional patterns, necessitating attention to three main themes: technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3][4] - The performance of global capital markets in the first half of 2025 was chaotic, with U.S. stocks experiencing fluctuations, European stocks performing well, and an increase in risk appetite for Chinese stocks [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - The three macro themes that dominated the economic landscape in the first half of 2025 were technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to continue influencing capital markets [1][13] - The Chinese bond market is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, with a notable decline in U.S. credit assets impacting global markets [1][11][12] - The real estate market in China is stabilizing but still requires time, as interest rates are not low enough to stimulate domestic demand [1][14] - The transformation of China's policy framework focuses on upgrading technology manufacturing, transitioning from traditional growth models, and reshaping the international payment system, rather than relying on short-term counter-cyclical stimulus [1][15] Additional Important Content - The sentiment in the bond market is currently positive, with expectations of further declines in bond yields due to the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates [5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are influencing market dynamics, although the exact impact remains uncertain [6] - The global fiscal landscape has entered a new phase, moving away from large-scale fiscal stimulus towards structural reforms and innovation [18] - The U.S. fiscal situation, characterized by a reduction in deficit rates, is causing market concerns about the sustainability of U.S. credit assets [21] - Japan and Europe are undergoing significant fiscal policy changes, with Japan tightening its monetary policy and Europe increasing fiscal spending [22] Market Performance and Expectations - The performance of U.S. credit assets is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025, influenced by trade war dynamics and the gradual tightening of Japan's monetary policy [30] - The Chinese bond market is anticipated to perform positively due to increasing pressures from declining exports and the real estate sector [31] - The stock market outlook is complex, with a recommendation against investing in cyclical sectors due to insufficient interest rate reductions to stabilize the real estate market [32] Conclusion - The current economic environment is characterized by a focus on liquidity-driven asset pricing, with significant implications for investment strategies in both domestic and international markets [1][11][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the combination of the end - of - quarter period and the large - scale issuance of local government bonds on the capital market at the end of June is complex, but if the central bank maintains a supportive attitude, the impact on the capital market may be relatively controllable [3][4] - The capital market has shown certain trends this week, such as the increase in the scale of repurchase transactions and the change in the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The capital gap index and the cross - quarter progress of various institutions also reflect the current capital situation [3][17] - Predictions are made for the issuance and net financing scale of government bonds in June and the third quarter, and corresponding investment suggestions are given for different institutions [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Capital Situation Review - The central bank's reverse repurchase had a net investment of 102.1 billion yuan this week, with 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Tuesday. The capital market remained generally loose, and the DR001 dropped below 1.4% [3][7] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase reached a record high of 8.7 trillion yuan on Thursday, with an average daily trading volume of 8.32 trillion yuan, the highest since August 2023. The overall scale of pledged repurchase also reached a new high of 12.56 trillion yuan this year [3][17] - The net financing of large - scale and joint - stock banks fluctuated and rebounded, while that of city - commercial banks remained relatively stable. The net financing scale of non - bank institutions was significantly higher than last week, mainly due to the large increase in the financing of product accounts such as funds, wealth management, and other products [3][17] - The new - caliber capital gap index first rose and then fell, and was still lower than last Friday. The cross - quarter progress of various institutions was at the lowest level in the past five years and continued to slow down compared with the average of previous years [3][17] - The excess reserve ratio in May increased by about 0.1 percentage points to 1.0% compared with April, but was still at the lowest level in the same period since 2019. There were also changes in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and government deposits [3][27] - The scale of banks' rigid financing of funds increased significantly this week, even higher than that of non - bank institutions, which may be a preparation for the concentrated payment of local government bonds and the end - of - quarter period next week [3][38] 3.1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 144.4 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 789.8 billion yuan next week, the highest since late April [3][40] - It is estimated that the net financing of national bonds in June is about 710 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds is about 630 billion yuan. The predicted issuance scale of government bonds in June is adjusted upwards to about 2.7 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.33 trillion yuan [3][44] - It is predicted that the issuance of national bonds from July to September will be 1.39 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan, and 1.48 trillion yuan respectively, with net financing of 630 billion yuan, 730 billion yuan, and 680 billion yuan respectively. The issuance of local government bonds from July to September is expected to be 1.20 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan, and 0.85 trillion yuan respectively, with net financing of 800 billion yuan, 660 billion yuan, and 440 billion yuan respectively [4][47] - Although factors such as the end - of - quarter period and the concentrated payment of government bonds may have a superimposed impact next week, if the central bank maintains a supportive attitude, the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is limited. Non - bank institutions can make decisions after the central bank's MLF operation attitude becomes clearer [4][52] 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The secondary interest rate of AAA - rated 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit dropped by 3.1 basis points to 1.64% this week. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased, with a net financing of 47 billion yuan [4][53] - The net financing scale of state - owned banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased, while that of joint - stock banks decreased. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased to 24%, and the issuance proportion of 3 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 27% [55][56] - The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 1.1092 trillion yuan, an increase of 53.9 billion yuan compared with this week [56] - The issuance success rate of rural commercial banks' certificates of deposit decreased slightly, while that of other banks increased. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city - commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [57] - The relative strength index of the supply and demand of certificates of deposit decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 41.0% compared with last week, still in a relatively strong range. The supply - demand index of 3 - month certificates of deposit increased, while that of 1 - month, 6 - month and above - term certificates of deposit decreased [69] 3.3 Bill Market - This week, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased. The interest rates of 3 - month and 6 - month national - share bills increased by 2 basis points and 1 basis point respectively to 1.01% and 1.05% [74] 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, bond interest rates fluctuated and declined, with the short - end performing strongly, and credit and perpetual bond spreads remaining generally stable [76] - The willingness of large - scale banks to reduce bond holdings decreased, mainly increasing their holdings of certificates of deposit and long - term policy - financial bonds. The willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings remained high, but there were differences among different institutions. The willingness of allocation - type institutions to reduce bond holdings increased, with differences among different institutions as well [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]

Core Viewpoint - The micro-cap stock index has recently reached a new high, but has shown significant pullback after a two-day market adjustment, indicating increased volatility in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Several public funds believe that the rapid recovery of micro-cap stocks over the past two months is driven by multiple factors, with liquidity being a primary driver [2][4]. - The micro-cap stock index has shown strong performance, with the CSI 2000 and Guozheng 2000 indices rising by 16.11% and 13.27% respectively since April 8, significantly outperforming larger indices [4]. - The central bank's emphasis on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy suggests that liquidity support for micro-cap stocks may continue, enhancing their market elasticity [4]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Limitations - Despite some public funds achieving good performance with micro-cap stocks, the limited capacity for these stocks to absorb large amounts of capital has led to restrictions on fund subscriptions [6][8]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, public funds held approximately 4.55 billion yuan in micro-cap stocks, representing only 0.08% of their total market value, indicating low holding concentration [7]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Future Trends - There are differing opinions among institutions regarding the future of micro-cap stocks, with some reports indicating that the factors supporting their collective rise are beginning to show signs of strain [3][9]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a "snowball" effect if the current trend of collective investment in micro-cap stocks exceeds their capacity, which could lead to significant market fluctuations [10]. Group 4: Optimistic Perspectives - Some analysts remain optimistic, suggesting that micro-cap stocks are primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamental factors, and that they may continue to outperform in the absence of a clear market trend [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market yield is expected to challenge the previous low, but it is difficult to break through. It is recommended to stop profit when approaching the key point. Specifically, it is suggested to allocate 10-year treasury bonds around 1.65% when there is an adjustment, and stop profit appropriately when approaching the key point of 1.6%. From a static perspective, attention can be paid to the allocation value of the 20-year treasury bond yield [2][6][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Yield Expected to Challenge the Previous Low - After a long period of credit expansion, the growth rate of social financing may be gradually peaking. It is expected that the growth rate of social financing will reach the annual high of about 9.0% from July to August, and then gradually decline to about 8.3% by the end of the year. The issuance of special refinancing bonds has a significant substitution effect on new RMB loans, and there is still about 40 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds to be issued this year, and its substitution effect on credit is expected to continue for some time [6][12]. - In June this year, the central bank's support brought abundant liquidity and a decline in the short end of the bond market, which made the long-term bonds not adjust deeply, and the bond market often rushes ahead in June. Under the loose capital situation, institutions generally continue the "rushing ahead" strategy of previous years, and the inter-bank leverage ratio has been rising, reaching 108.2% as of June 17. Historical experience shows that the bond market rush - ahead market is often triggered after the cross - quarter capital pressure is released [6][18]. The Previous Low Can Be Challenged but Difficult to Break Through, and It is Recommended to Stop Profit When Approaching the Key Point - The bond market is insensitive to small changes in the fundamentals. Firstly, in the context of high - quality development, the improvement of total factor productivity has increased its contribution to economic growth, reducing the demand for financing in economic growth. Since 2020, the multiple of nominal economy supported by unit social financing has increased from about 3 times to about 4.2 times in 2024. Secondly, considering the bond market valuation, at the current relatively low absolute level, a greater valuation increase is required for the interest rate to decline, making the bond market less sensitive to general weakening of the fundamentals [6][19]. - The restart of treasury bond trading is possible, but the time is not clear, and the probability of restarting when the bond market approaches the previous low may not be high. If the central bank restarts treasury bond trading, referring to the market from December 20 to December 25 last year, the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds can break through 1% at the lowest, which may directly drive the yield of long - term bonds to break below 1.6%, deviating from the current relatively desirable bond market yield level [6][24].

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 657.8 billion, 107.8 billion, and 175.5 billion respectively, with net financing of 262.1 billion, -43.0 billion, and 73.6 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 236.8 billion with a net financing of 166.7 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 307.6 billion and net financing of 106.8 billion [1] - Three new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 2.1 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market experienced slight strengthening amidst fluctuations, influenced by factors such as liquidity, central bank reverse repo announcements, US-China negotiations, and geopolitical conflicts [2] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank conducted net liquidity absorption, with a tightening of funds as the tax period approached, leading to an increase in R001 and R007 rates by 1.4 basis points and 3 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic indicators show that domestic demand needs improvement, with a temporary decline in export data. Production remains stable, but domestic demand is weak, and prices for residents are trending downward, while geopolitical conflicts are pushing up prices for oil and other commodities [4] Overseas Market - US CPI and PPI data fell short of expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation has not fully materialized, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.41%, down 10 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The A-share market saw most broad-based indices decline slightly, with the Wind All A index down 0.27%, the Wind Micro-cap index down 0.07%, the CSI 300 down 0.25%, and the Sci-Tech 50 down 1.89%. Average daily trading volume increased to 1.37 trillion, with a weekly average increase of 162.8 billion [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The current 10-year government bond yield has returned to the 1.65% level mentioned by the central bank governor in May, with bond fund durations at historical highs. Concerns remain about the central bank's ability to maintain liquidity support, and the bond market may be sensitive to potential negative factors in the short term. However, the ongoing US-China negotiations suggest that high tariffs may persist, and the central bank is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a potential new round of interest rate declines anticipated after June [7]

Group 1 - The book "The Power of Money" by Paul Sheard discusses various aspects of money, including its creation, government debt concerns, destructive effects of money, and the potential of cryptocurrencies to disrupt existing monetary systems [2][4][24] - Sheard emphasizes the common misunderstandings and controversies surrounding money, suggesting that many people's perceptions are flawed and need clarification [2][5] - The relationship between the real economy and the monetary economy is complex, with money being essential for economic health, contrary to the traditional view that money is neutral [4][10] Group 2 - Money is fundamentally a social construct, gaining value through collective acceptance, and modern money is fiat currency, backed by government trust rather than physical commodities [5][7] - Central banks play a crucial role in money issuance, typically using commercial banks as intermediaries to inject money into the economy [7][8] - Government debt, primarily in the form of national bonds, is often misunderstood; unlike personal or corporate debt, government debt can be sustained due to the government's long-term existence and creditworthiness [10][12] Group 3 - The destructive potential of money is highlighted, particularly in the context of financial crises, where liquidity can vanish suddenly, leading to severe economic impacts [15][16] - The concept of liquidity is multifaceted, affecting how assets are traded and the stability of financial markets, especially during crises [16][17] - The U.S. dollar remains the dominant international currency, but its status is being challenged by geopolitical factors and the U.S. government's actions, leading to discussions about alternative currencies [22][23] Group 4 - Cryptocurrencies, while not yet a serious challenge to sovereign currencies, are gaining attention for their potential to disrupt traditional monetary systems and prompt central banks to innovate [24][26] - The emergence of cryptocurrencies has led to a reevaluation of payment systems and monetary policy, as they present both opportunities and risks for central banks [26][27] - The book provides a broad analysis of money, acknowledging that the discussion around it is vast and complex, with many dimensions yet to be explored [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report From June 9 - 13, 2025, the central bank slightly net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase but announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on June 16, showing its care for liquidity. The money market was loose with DR001 breaking below 1.40% during the week. From June 9 - 15, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields declined, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. Although there will be multiple tests on the money market in mid - to - late June, such as large NCD maturities, tax payment disturbances, MLF maturities, and cross - quarter funds, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose due to the central bank's care [2][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank's Liquidity Injection**: From June 9 - 13, 2025, the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan and withdrew 930.9 billion yuan through reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. 858.2 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature from June 16 - 20. The central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on June 16, resulting in a net injection of 20 billion yuan in June. On June 17, 182 billion yuan of MLF will mature. June 16 is the tax declaration deadline, followed by 2 days of tax payment disturbances [6]. - **Money Market Conditions**: From June 9 - 13, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.43% respectively, down 3.4 and 2.7 basis points compared to June 2 - 6. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.56% respectively, down 3.0 and 0.9 basis points. From June 9 - 12, DR001 broke below the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of 1.40% [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From June 9 - 15, the government bond net payment scale was about 6.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 69 billion yuan compared to June 2 - 8. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds was about 41.5 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about - 35.1 billion yuan. From June 16 - 22, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 433.4 billion yuan, with treasury bonds at about 265.9 billion yuan and local government bonds at about 167.5 billion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The money market in June is expected to remain stable. Despite multiple challenges in mid - to - late June, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose because of the central bank's care for liquidity [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield Changes**: As of June 13, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.6327% and 1.6355% respectively, basically unchanged and down 2 basis points compared to June 6. The 1 - year NCD yield was 1.6700%, down 1 basis point compared to June 6 [9]. - **Maturity Scale**: From June 9 - 15, the net financing of NCDs was about - 162.3 billion yuan. From June 16 - 22, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 1.0216 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale maturity trend [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From June 9 - 13, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.03%, compared with 107.66% from June 3 - 6. On June 13 and June 6, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.10% and 107.68% respectively [10].

Core Insights - MIND Technology, Inc. experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 10.6% following the release of its fiscal first quarter earnings, underperforming the S&P 500 index which fell only 0.5% during the same period [1] Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, MIND reported a net loss of $0.12 per share, a decline from breakeven earnings per share in the same quarter last year, attributed to lower sales volume and increased operating expenses [2] - Revenues for the quarter were $7.9 million, representing an 18.4% decrease from $9.7 million in the prior year, resulting in a net loss of $1 million compared to a net income of $1 million in the year-ago quarter [2] - Adjusted EBITDA turned negative at $0.2 million, down from a positive $1.5 million a year earlier, indicating a significant drop in operational profitability [3] Gross Profit and Margins - Gross profit for the quarter was $3.3 million, down 21% from $4.2 million in the same quarter last year, driven by lower sales volume and reduced absorption of fixed manufacturing costs [4] - Gross margin decreased from approximately 43.6% in the prior-year quarter to around 42.2%, showing some resilience despite the revenue decline [4] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses increased by 14.4% year over year to $4 million, primarily due to a rise in general and administrative costs, including non-recurring items related to the reorganization of U.K. operations and third-party consulting for tax strategy [5] Cash Flow and Liquidity - MIND generated $4.1 million in cash flow from operations, a significant improvement from a $4.8 million outflow in the same quarter last year, ending the quarter with a cash balance of $9.2 million and working capital of $22.8 million, indicating improved liquidity [6] Management Commentary - CEO Rob Capps described the quarter as a predictable step-down following a record fourth quarter, with results affected by delayed deliveries due to supply chain bottlenecks and customer-side logistics issues [7] - Management expects these shipments to be recognized in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, potentially reversing some of the first-quarter revenue shortfall [7] - Capps expressed confidence in the company's long-term trajectory, citing ongoing investments in operational optimization and liquidity improvements, along with a strong backlog and healthy pipeline of opportunities [8] Factors Influencing Revenue - Revenue was significantly impacted by shipment delays, with approximately $5.5 million in orders completed but not recognized due to timing issues with third-party component deliveries or customer logistics [10] - Elevated G&A costs were influenced by one-time expenses related to international restructuring and tax advisory services, further affecting operating income [11] Guidance - Management reiterated expectations for a stronger second quarter as delayed shipments are recognized and new opportunities arise, citing strong market tailwinds and customer demand as positive indicators for the remainder of fiscal 2026 [12] Other Developments - MIND is nearing completion of an expansion project at its Huntsville, TX facility, which will enhance its ability to provide repair and manufacturing services [13] - The Seamap product line continues to see broad deployment, creating future aftermarket service opportunities [13]