专家分析称，短期内人民币汇率预计将围绕7.0关口双向波动、稳中偏强运行，单边快速升值的行情概 率不高，即使继续升值，也将是温和的。 从全球资金的视角看，中国国债利率减去美债利率的差值越大时，意味着资金在中国获得的利息更多， 反之则为利差倒挂，资金流向美国的意愿更强。目前，中美利差仍然明显倒挂约230个基点，一旦近期 人民币升值趋势有所缓和，经营主体仍有动力持有美元。 面对上述复杂局面，近期中国人民银行货币政策委员会例会已明确强调"防范汇率超调风险"，需要注意 的是，汇率超调风险既包括贬值风险、也包括升值风险，不排除汇率升值过快后中国央行采取措施的可 能性。 中新社北京12月29日电 (陶思阅)近期人民币汇率持续走强，离岸人民币对美元即期汇率突破7.0关口。 综合来看，人民币此轮升值主要受美联储降息预期升温、美元指数走弱等因素共同推动。 业内专家认为，人民币汇率后续走势仍存在较大不确定性，这一局面由多重因素交织形成。 从外部环境来看，美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年结束，即将进行的权力交接，其核心远不止于人 事。谁将接棒鲍威尔，或预示着美联储未来货币政策的方向。美国正面临通胀和就业的艰难平衡，进一 步降息面临约束 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.31%报 4562.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 11.15%报 79.68 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.17%报 1018.1 元/克，沪银收涨 6.03%报 19204 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 26 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 2.86 | | | | | 吨，当前持仓量为 1071.13 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日减少 56.41 吨，当前持仓量为 163 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - situation shows that US Q3 GDP and consumption data strengthen the resilience of the US economy, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year. A domestic NDRC article boosts the sentiment of the entire non - ferrous sector, creating a strong bullish atmosphere. Fundamentally, the new production capacity in China and Indonesia continues to increase supply, and the previous shipping issues in the northwest are resolved, leading to a small increase in supply. On the consumption side, due to weak orders, environmental protection controls, and high aluminum prices, the off - season for downstream production deepens. Aluminum ingot inventory increases by 17,000 tons to 617,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increases by 1,500 tons to 124,500 tons. Overall, domestic policy announcements and the strong copper price drive the metal sector. After the Christmas holiday, US data may affect Fed expectations and amplify market sentiment fluctuations. The aluminum market sees increasing supply and decreasing demand, with social inventory gradually accumulating. The fundamentals provide limited support for high aluminum prices, but in the short term, sentiment dominates, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [2][7]. - For cast aluminum, last week's aluminum alloy operating rate was 59.8%. Due to high costs for secondary aluminum enterprises, some regions reduced production due to profit decline, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental protection factors, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. On the consumption side, considering factors such as the subsidy policy roll - back in 2026 and pre - emptive consumption demand, the sustainability of new energy vehicle orders in the later stage is uncertain. The exchange inventory increases slightly by 298 tons to 70,000 tons. Overall, under the influence of strong aluminum prices and high scrap aluminum prices, the cost support is strong, but due to poor consumption expectations and high inventory pressure, the upward momentum is weak, and the cast aluminum market is expected to remain volatile [2][8]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Transaction Data - The SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price rises from $22,250 to $22,495 per ton, an increase of $245 [4]. - LME aluminum inventory increases from 519,600 tons to 521,050 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increases from 76,188 tons to 77,059 tons, an increase of 871 tons [4]. - The spot average price rises from 21,730 yuan/ton to 21,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 21,968 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan/ton from last week; the South China spot weekly average price is 21,882 yuan/ton, up 254 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - In the US, Q3 real GDP initial value annualized quarterly growth rate is 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%, with strong consumer spending as the main driver. The core PCE price index rises 2.9%. In addition, US core capital goods orders and shipments in October both recover, while the consumer confidence index in December drops from 92.9 to 89.1 [5]. - The NDRC's article emphasizes strengthening management and layout optimization of industries such as alumina and copper smelting [5]. - The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry operating rate drops by 0.6% to 60.8% due to weak orders, environmental protection controls, and high aluminum prices [6]. - On December 25, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 617,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 124,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [6]. - The Friday spot price of cast aluminum alloy SMM is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last Friday; Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price is 21,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, for electrolytic aluminum, sentiment is expected to drive prices to remain strong in the short term, while for cast aluminum, it is expected to remain volatile [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports are about 147,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to November, the cumulative primary aluminum imports are about 2.358 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [10]. - Hydro Energi and Hafslund Kraft AS sign a new long - term power purchase agreement, with Hafslund supplying 1.75 TWh of electricity to Hydro from 2036 to 2040 [10]. - On December 22, the Mozambique's Confederation of Business Associations calls on the government to avoid the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant at all costs [10]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - third contracts, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium and discount, and various inventory and price seasonal change charts [12][15][19][21][23][25][27][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the lead price of the main SHFE contract rebounded. The US economic data showed strong resilience, and the employment data was moderate, leading to a slight increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weak US dollar, which was beneficial to the lead price. The lead concentrate market had little trading, and the processing fee was weakly stable. The scrap battery recyclers' reluctance to sell increased, and the quotation was slightly raised. The primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, and the supply improved marginally. The secondary lead supply was still tight due to environmental protection and raw material shortages. The terminal consumption acceptance declined after the end of the new national standard transition period and stricter supervision, and the spot trading was weak. Overall, the warm macro - sentiment and tight domestic spot supported the lead price rebound, but the open lead ingot import window and the expected transfer of overseas high - inventory pressure restricted the rebound height. In the short term, the lead price was expected to remain oscillating strongly, but the risk of a pullback after the New Year's Day holiday should be vigilant [3][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalog Transaction Data - From December 19th to December 26th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,880 yuan/ton to 17,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 675 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,984.5 dollars/ton to 1,999.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 15 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio rose from 8.51 to 8.78, an increase of 0.27. The SHFE inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 9,725 tons to 248,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 1.79 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2602 rebounded strongly, closing at 17,555 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 4%. The LME lead continued to rebound, closing at 1,999.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.76%. In the spot market, as of December 26th, the Jiangxi lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 17,300 - 17,330 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract. The spot market had few circulating supplies, and the transaction was sluggish. As of December 26th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,725 tons. The SHFE inventory was 27,095 tons, a decrease of 780 tons from last week. As of December 25th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 1.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from Monday and 0.26 million tons from last Thursday [5] Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining flat month - on - month. In November, the lead concentrate import volume was 109,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year increase of 15.78%. The silver concentrate import volume was 181,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.13% and a year - on - year increase of 26.51%. The import volume of refined lead and lead products was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.04%. The export volume of refined lead and lead products was 3,675 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% [8] Related Charts - The content includes multiple charts showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, lead ingot premiums, price differences between primary and secondary lead, scrap battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][14]

沪铜狂飙掀起有色涨势热潮叠加美指下挫，隔周沪铝收涨0.6%，夜盘收报22520元/吨；宏观层面，市场 预计2026年美联储将降息两次，首次降息或于年中落地。美元指数周线下跌，进一步增强了以美元计价 的工业金属对海外买家的吸引力。美股市场在2025年持续走高，不断创下历史新高，投资者期待本周美 股能为这一强势年份完美收官。12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开，会议指出2026年将继 续实施更加积极的财政政策，向市场释放了利好信号。 基本面方面，海外铝供应存在扰动，而国内电解铝运行产能整体变化不大，供应压力有限。需求端，目 前已进入季节性消费淡季，受订单疲弱、环保管控以及铝价高企等因素影响，下游开工进一步下滑，铝 下游加工企业开工率持续走低。市场数据显示，上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比下降0.6 个百分点至60.8%。近期下游畏高情绪浓厚，现货贴水幅度持续加深，叠加新疆发运情况好转，在途库 存上升，对铝价上行空间形成压制。 综合来看，沪铝供需驱动不足、库存虽升但仍处低位，且氧化铝价格走强为铝价提供了成本支撑，预计 今日现货铝价或上涨。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-56688 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is positive for copper as the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals, domestic policy expectations are rising, and major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Fundamentally, global copper mine supply is restricted, and the growth rate of refined copper production is expected to slow down. Although the domestic demand growth rate may slow down, there will still be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market in 2026. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to continue an upward trend, and a long - position approach is recommended [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - The US inflation is slowing down, the labor market is weakening, and the rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals. In November, the US CPI slowed to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI slowed to 2.6% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [7][8] - In China, fixed - asset investment is slowing down, and policy expectations are rising. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real estate market, and the National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue in 2026 [10][11] - Major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Germany will increase its federal debt issuance by about 20% in 2026, Japan will launch its largest - scale initial budget, and the US will have additional fiscal expenditures of about $480 billion in 2026. The PPI shows an upward trend, and attention should be paid to the start of the replenishment cycle [12][14] 3.2 Supply - The growth rate of global copper mine production is expected to be limited. In 2025, the growth rate of global copper mine production was adjusted down to 1.4% due to production cuts in some mines, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.3% due to new and expanded production capacities in some countries [19][20] - In China, the supply of copper concentrates is in short supply, imports are increasing year - on - year, and port inventories are relatively low. From January to November 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and as of mid - December 2025, port copper concentrate inventories decreased compared with the same period last year [22][23] - By - products improve the loss situation of smelters, and copper concentrate supply is tight, putting pressure on processing fees. In 2025, the TC of imported copper concentrates was in the negative range, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at 0 [25][26] - The growth rate of global refined copper production is expected to slow down in 2026. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 due to limited copper concentrate supply. China's CSPT will cut the capacity load of mine - copper by more than 10% in 2026, affecting about 1 million tons of global refined copper supply [27][30] - The refined copper market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", with significant import inversion and a decline in net imports. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [32][33] 3.3 Demand - Driven by supply - capacity expansion and demand increase, China's copper product output increased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper products increased by 8.8% year - on - year [36][37] - The output of refined copper rods increased. New capacity, demand growth, and substitution effects contributed to the increase in output in 2025. The output of recycled copper rods decreased, driving some demand to refined copper rods [38][39] - The output of copper strips slightly decreased, while the output of copper foils increased significantly. The demand for copper strips is expected to be differentiated, and the demand for copper foils is driven by energy - storage and new - energy vehicle consumption [40][41] - The output of copper tubes was affected by air - conditioner production scheduling, with a significant year - on - year decline in the fourth quarter. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper tubes decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [43][44] - Real - estate demand dragged down the performance of copper rods. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper rods decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [46][47] - The demand for power - grid construction increased significantly, while the growth rate of power - source investment slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative power - grid investment increased by 7.17% year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [48][50] - The growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down in 2026. In 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China increased significantly, but in 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to policy adjustments, grid - absorption pressure, etc. [51][53] - The global wind - power industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2026. In 2025, the new installed capacity of wind - power in China increased significantly, and from 2026 - 2028, the average annual growth rate of onshore and offshore wind - power is expected to be high [54][55] - The domestic real - estate market is expected to be stabilized. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, and in 2025, the decline in real - estate indicators narrowed [56][58] - The growth rate of home - appliance consumption is expected to slow down in 2026. Although there is still policy support in 2026, the growth rate will slow down both domestically and overseas [60][61] - The production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow significantly in 2025. In 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to the change in vehicle - purchase tax policy [63][68] 3.4 Inventory - Global copper inventory shows obvious regional differentiation. High prices will suppress demand in the short term, leading to an increase in social inventory. As of mid - December 2025, domestic electrolytic copper and bonded - area electrolytic copper inventories increased compared with the same period last year [71][72] - There is a concern about a short squeeze in the LME copper market. In 2026, there will be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market. The growth rate of global refined copper production will slow down to 0.9% in 2026, and the demand growth rate will slow down to 2.1%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 150,000 tons [73][74]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term due to a combination of factors including a warm macro - market sentiment, a weakening geopolitical support for rubber prices, good but weakening terminal consumption, and increasing seasonal inventory accumulation [8][9][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures (RU2605) oscillated upward, with the price ranging from 15,130 to 15,890 yuan/ton. As of December 26, 2025, it closed at 15,780 yuan/ton, up 590 points or 3.88% for the week [6][15]. (2) Spot Price - As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,130 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. (3) Basis and Spread - As of December 26, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai - Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main contract futures price was - 480 yuan/ton, an expansion of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared to last week [27][30]. 2. Important Market Information - The US economic situation shows mixed signals, with strong Q3 GDP growth but a decline in consumer confidence. China's economic policies focus on market construction and industry regulation, and the industrial economy shows steady progress with some fluctuations in corporate profits. The automobile industry has growth in production and sales, especially in the new - energy vehicle segment, and the heavy - truck market has strong performance due to policy support [31][33][34]. 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries decreased by 1.95 tons or 1.82% compared to the previous month. The monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 77.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, and the cumulative output was 816.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China increased by 8.6% month - on - month [41][44][47]. 4. Demand - Side Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. As of November 30, 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings decreased year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month [56][60][63]. 5. Inventory - Side Situation - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber futures inventory increased by 6,770 tons week - on - week. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased continuously, with an increasing inventory accumulation rate [84]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber production is in the peak season, with an expected increase in raw material supply in overseas main - producing areas. The domestic production is decreasing as the domestic areas stop tapping. The import volume of rubber in China increased year - on - year. The cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia weakens the geopolitical support for rubber prices. - Demand: The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. The finished - product inventory is rising, and the all - steel tire price is under pressure. The automobile production and sales increased in November 2025, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires increased slightly in the first 11 months of 2025. The demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken as the weather gets colder. - Inventory: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and the total inventory in Qingdao all increased last week [85][86]. 7.后市展望 - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures oscillated upward last week. In the future, the macro - market sentiment is warm, which supports the rubber price. However, on the fundamental side, the supply is expected to be loose, the geopolitical support for rubber prices weakens, the terminal consumption is good but may weaken, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. Therefore, the market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [87][88]. 8. Views and Operating Strategies - This week's view: The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. - Operating strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider range trading; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long 01 and short 05 positive spread opportunity; for options, wait and see [89][90].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the A - share market showed a general upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight - day consecutive increase. The trading volume of the two markets expanded, indicating active market trading [1]. - Different futures varieties have distinct price trends and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some varieties are affected by supply and demand, international market conditions, and policy expectations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 26, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to close at 3963.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54% to close at 13603.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.14% to close at 3243.88 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated on December 26, closing at 4657.24, a month - on - month increase of 14.7 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 26, the coke weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1707.9, a month - on - month decrease of 15.6. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1104.8 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 11.0 [2][3]. - For coke, port spot prices were stable, supply was increasing as coking plants actively operated, but demand was weak as steel mills had low profitability and only made necessary purchases. For coking coal, prices in some regions changed, supply was tightened due to a coal mine accident, and demand was weak as steel mills had a low acceptance of high - priced coal [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the holiday, the US sugar market had light trading volume and closed slightly lower on December 26. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract continued to fluctuate and consolidate at night. As of November 30, the sugarcane crushing volume in northern and northeastern Brazil was 32.5 million tons, a 9.4% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a narrow - range fluctuation and closed slightly higher at night on December 26. As of December 26, the inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [5]. Palm Oil - Due to the continuous strengthening of crude oil, palm oil became a more attractive raw material for biodiesel. On December 26, palm oil futures in Malaysia and the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the weekly line showed the first positive line in three weeks. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 25 increased by 41.25% compared to the same period last month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the sowing of soybeans in Brazil was almost completed, and the sowing progress in Argentina reached 70%, leading to a high yield expectation that limited the rebound of US soybean prices. However, China's purchase plan provided support. Domestically, on December 26, the M2605 main contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The supply - demand relationship of soybean meal remained loose, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On December 26, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11645 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The short - term supply pressure was relieved as group pig enterprises completed their annual targets and farmers were reluctant to sell. The demand was strong due to curing and New Year's Day stocking. The short - term price was expected to be strong, but the long - term supply pressure still existed [5]. Shanghai Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut pushed up the copper price. The demand in traditional fields was weak, but the new energy and AI industries provided support. However, there was a risk of a high - level correction [5]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 778, with a low of 771, a high of 781, and closed at 776.5 on December 26, with a reduction of 139 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [5][6]. Iron Ore - On December 26, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up 0.71% at 783 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals decreased, port inventories increased, and terminal demand was low in the off - season. However, steel mill profitability improved, and iron water output increased slightly. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - On December 26, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down 0.03% at 2995 yuan. The capacity utilization rate increased, inventories accumulated, and shipments increased. The downstream demand was stable, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate [7]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14475 yuan/ton at night on December 26. Cotton spinning enterprises replenished stocks as needed, and the inventory increased by 227 lots. The prices of different types of cotton from different regions were provided [7][8][9][10]. Steel - The domestic steel market was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The core contradiction was between short - term policy - driven sentiment and long - term fundamental pressure. Steel production was affected by environmental protection and low profitability, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the macro - expectations for next year [10]. Alumina - The impact of seasonal factors on imported ore from Guinea weakened, and port inventories increased slightly. Supply was expected to decrease under policy guidance as the industry had high - level production and excess inventory. Demand was stable as domestic electrolytic aluminum production was steady [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The low price of alumina ensured good smelting profits for aluminum plants, and the overall production was active. Supply increased slightly as some electrolytic aluminum projects were put into operation. Demand weakened in the off - season, and inventories accumulated slightly. Affected by positive macro - expectations, the aluminum price remained high and fluctuated [11].

今年以来，银价涨幅高达约180%。 地缘政治风险升温提振了避险资产需求，以及市场对美联储2026年进一步降息的预期均利好银价。 此外，市场对白银供应短缺的担忧日益加剧也助推银价上涨。分析指出，全球白银市场已连续五年处于结构性赤字状态，实物库存正在迅速枯竭， 主要交易所的库存水平大幅下降。市场正面临一场实时的供应挤压，而非仅仅是避险情绪推动的上涨。 现货白银跌幅扩大至近5%，此前一度涨超6 %。 | 旅店 | 白银/美元 | | | | S 7 Q | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | XAG | | | | | | | | 75.51 | | 今井 | 80.11 該局 | 83.99 | 最低 | 74.94 | | | -4.83% -3.83 | | 总手 | -- 持仓 | | 日增 | | | | 结算 | | 昨结 | 79.34 | | | 申示 | | | 分时 五日 | 園K | 日K | | 日K | 亜名▼ | | | | 83.99 | | | | 5.86% 卖1 | 75.53 | | 0 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continues to impact various markets, causing uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and commodity markets [1][11][18]. - Market sentiment and trading volumes are affected by holidays such as Christmas and New Year, leading to relatively light trading and narrow - range fluctuations in some markets [1][2]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some commodities are expected to be affected by supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and cost factors, resulting in price fluctuations and investment opportunities [25][36][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key issue in the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" regarding territory remains unresolved. After Christmas, overseas market trading is light. On Friday, gold price rose 1%, and silver price soared 10% due to a short - squeeze. The short - squeeze may be nearing its end. With the New Year's holiday approaching and the exchange increasing margin requirements, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [1][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as the territorial issue remains unresolved, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the market is trading lightly, the year - end seasonal performance of US stocks is strong, and the market risk appetite remains high. US stocks are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan. The problem of fragile institutional trading behavior is being alleviated, and long - term bonds are in the process of bottom - building. It is not recommended to chase short - term varieties. Long - term varieties are suitable for allocation when interest rates rise, and trading positions can buy on dips and exit quickly [20][21]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The market sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to allocate evenly in long positions of each stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of December 20 - 26, 2025, the actual soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills decreased. In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased. Although palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in December, the supply pressure is gradually easing. It is recommended to wait for further signals of supply pressure release before going long on palm oil. For international and domestic soybean oil, there are potential factors for price increases, but the impact may be limited due to sufficient inventory [25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills in January 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year. The domestic market is mainly affected by customs policies and national reserves. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to these two factors, which will mainly affect the unilateral trend of the March contract and the 3 - 5 spread [27][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease by 5%. Thailand's sugar production progress is slow, and the international sugar market's supply - demand may tighten in the first quarter. However, the overall supply surplus expectation limits the upward driving force. Domestically, new sugar production is accelerating, and the upward space of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas market's driving effect and the terminal's stocking demand [31][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season. As of December 11, the weekly signing data of US upland cotton was strong, but the export signing progress for the 25/26 season still lags. Zhengzhou cotton has increased in position and broken through previous highs, mainly due to speculation on the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the rise of chemical fiber futures prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream transmission situation and the risk of a decline due to capital withdrawal [34][36][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate. The de - stocking speed of the five major steel products has not changed significantly, and the finished products have not yet entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the export policy changes at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [41][42]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro and capital factors continue to drive copper prices up, and the short - term upward momentum is not weak. The fundamental situation deviates from the capital situation. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and a long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term [45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the inventory is rising. In the off - season of demand from January to February, polysilicon may be "priced but not traded", but the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips and hold positions carefully [47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in some regions has changed slightly, and the inventory is increasing. The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to sell short on rebounds [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The spot price difference of lead is in a discount state. The supply of recycled lead may be tightened due to environmental protection. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the inventory is declining. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased, and the demand has recovered slightly. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in January. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and easy to rise but difficult to fall in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A company has terminated a nickel project. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the nickel production quota and the tax - calculation formula, which may increase the smelting cost. The nickel market is currently in surplus, and it is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits and pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [59][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply may decline slightly in January, and the demand side has many production - reduction and maintenance news. It is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits, not chase the high, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [64][65]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. The expected reduction of quota supply in 2026 is expected to support the price in the long - term, but short - term profit - taking by some investors may suppress the upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia has extended the export ban on gasoline and diesel to February 2026. Geopolitical conflicts and supply - surplus expectations are disturbing the market. Oil prices are expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the process of verifying the surplus [68][69][70]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of polyester bottle chips have risen, and the market trading atmosphere is good. With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previously overhauled devices, the processing cost pressure may increase. The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the rise of polyester raw materials [71][73].