鲍威尔还提到，在关于政策的讨论中，多数观点认为，当前通胀高于目标水平，就业处于目标水平，因 此政策应保持一定的限制性。事实上，通胀距离目标比就业更远，劳动力市场是目前拥有的最佳经济数 据，从辞职率、职位空缺数和失业率等指标来看，就业市场仍然稳固，许多就业指标与一年前的情况类 似。但市场仍存在下行风险，在下次会议之前，还有两份就业和通胀报告。 新华财经北京7月31日电（郭洲洋）美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，美联储主席杰罗姆· 鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，就当前美国经济状况、货币政策调整及未来展望进行了详细阐述。 鲍威尔指出，尽管当前充满不确定性，美国经济仍然处于稳健状态。失业率保持在较低水平，劳动力市 场已达到或接近最大就业状态。他认为，当前的货币政策立场让美联储有充足准备，在面对未来可能的 经济变化时能及时应对。 关于通胀，鲍威尔表示，通胀虽然较2022年高点回落，但仍略高于2%的目标。目前存在"追赶性通 胀"，这反映了过去的压力，且无法将关税对通胀的影响单独剥离出来，同时服务业通胀正在下降，商 品通胀正在上升。他特别指出，关税开始在消费者价格中体现，核心通胀中有0.3至0.4个百分点是由关 税因素导 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS economists predict that the Bank of England may raise its inflation and economic growth forecasts for the UK during the August meeting, following higher-than-expected inflation data in June [1] Group 1: Inflation Forecasts - The Bank of England is likely to adjust its inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 3.5% due to recent inflation data [1] - The adjustment reflects a response to the economic conditions and inflation trends observed in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Economic Growth Predictions - Following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter, the growth forecast for the UK may also see a slight upward revision [1] - UBS anticipates that assumptions regarding energy prices and the effective exchange rate of the pound will be adjusted, while the policy interest rate assumption is expected to remain largely unchanged [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward breakthrough of zinc prices from the range-bound consolidation has limited further upside potential, and the downward movement is also not smooth. The short - term directional signal is insufficient. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation of zinc is expected to continue until 2026. It is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1][2][7]. - In the third quarter, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline, while in the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level [1][7]. 3. Summary by Section Zinc Market Review - After the delay of extreme US tariffs and the repair of market panic, zinc prices in the Shanghai market filled the gap after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The expected economic soft - landing in the US and inflation expectations support zinc prices. However, due to the increase in domestic and overseas mine production, high prices of by - products, and pre - consumption caused by tariffs, the fundamentals have turned to supply increase and demand weakness, and the zinc price in Shanghai is under pressure at the 23,000 yuan integer mark [1]. - The shift of the zinc term structure from "B" to "C" indicates that the change from strong to weak fundamentals is being fully priced. Under the situation of weak reality and weak expectations, the term structure is flat. The profit space for short - selling is narrowed, and the loss from position transfer is also greatly reduced. In the third - quarter consumption peak season, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline [1]. Policy - level Impact on Zinc Prices - Tariffs: After the delay of high - level Sino - US tariffs, the supply of imported mines is relaxed, but the pre - demand caused by tariffs has overdrawn some future consumption space, and the domestic social inventory of zinc has gradually increased. Attention should be paid to the progress of the third - round Sino - US negotiations on August 12, and the market generally expects another 90 - day tariff delay [2]. - Anti - involution: In the short term, it has a supporting effect on zinc prices, but in the long - term, it has little impact on the upstream and downstream production capacity of zinc, and the situation of supply increase and demand weakness is expected to continue [2]. - Power sector: The long - term investment in the power sector is optimistic. Although the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station has limited direct demand for zinc, the supporting power grid and infrastructure construction can drive zinc consumption [2]. - Infrastructure: As of the beginning of the year, local special bonds have mainly been used to repay old debts, and the infrastructure has not strongly stimulated demand. With the weakening of the US dollar and the loosening of the domestic monetary policy in the second quarter, some infrastructure projects may be implemented during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2]. Domestic Refinery Raw Material Supply and Industrial Chain Profit Distribution - In June, the raw material inventory days of domestic refineries reached 29.7 days. The project approval of domestic lead - zinc mines has accelerated, and mines are expanding and resuming production. Refineries have a low acceptance of high - priced imported ingots, making it difficult for import ore traders to raise prices. The domestic TC of imported ore has increased, and the profit of mines is high, with room for short - selling mine profits on the futures market [4]. Impact of LME Deliverable Inventory Concentration on Shanghai Zinc - On July 18, the LME zinc price rose by 3.16%, the largest daily increase this year. The market is concerned about the squeeze - out risk. The net position of LME zinc investment funds has changed from short to long, and the external market has a strong trend, which has an obvious pulling effect on the domestic market. Short - term sharp decline of zinc prices is difficult. However, the long - position of investment funds on the LME has been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks [5]. Zinc Price Rebound and High - level Hedging Pressure - There is still a demand for high - level industrial hedging. When the zinc price in Shanghai is above 23,000 yuan, the entry of hedging positions brings downward pressure. Speculative funds tend to believe that the rebound high of zinc is in the range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton [6]. Overall Market Outlook - In the third quarter, zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there is high pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1 - The equity market has recently reached new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, leading to disturbances in the bond market due to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has risen sharply to 1.73% as of July 25, marking a year-to-date high, driven by rising inflation expectations and changes in the funding environment [1] - Citic Securities attributes the recent bond market pullback to increased inflation expectations, high previous market congestion, and marginal changes in the funding environment [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities predicts that the bond market may have already passed its most challenging phase, with expectations of improved funding conditions supported by the central bank's actions [1] - The central bank's proactive measures, including a net injection of 100 billion yuan through MLF and a significant reverse repo operation, indicate a commitment to stabilizing the funding environment [1] - The bond market is expected to benefit from the central bank's continued support, particularly for mid-to-short-term and credit bonds [1] Group 3 - Huian Fund's research team notes that after significant redemptions, the central bank's large net injection has stabilized market sentiment, leading to cautious short-term expectations for interest rates [2] - Investors are advised to consider short-duration bond funds, which are less affected by interest rate fluctuations, as a preferred option for managing liquidity needs [2] - Specific funds, such as Huian Yongli 30-day holding period short bond fund and Huian Yongfu 90-day holding period medium-short bond fund, have consistently achieved positive returns since their inception [2] Group 4 - For investors looking to participate in equity markets while managing risk, the Huian Quality Selected Bond Fund, which focuses on high-quality central enterprise credit bonds and dividend-quality stocks, is recommended [3] - This fund has a unique performance benchmark designed to balance returns from quality credit bonds and stocks, aiming for stable growth [3] - The fund is currently available for subscription across major channels, appealing to investors seeking steady progress [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling over 1%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by more than 2% [1] - Over 4,100 stocks declined, while more than 1,100 stocks rose [1] Bond Market Performance - The 30-year government bond futures saw an intraday increase of 0.6%, currently reported at 118.6 points. The 10-year bond rose by 0.18% to 108.335 points, the 5-year bond increased by 0.1% to 105.66 points, and the 2-year bond rose by 0.05% to 102.354 points [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi, 511130) experienced a rapid surge, increasing by 32 basis points with a trading volume exceeding 3.8 billion yuan and a turnover rate of over 25% [1] Interest Rate Trends - According to Minsheng Securities, the bond market has shown significant adjustments recently, with the 10-year government bond yield rising over 10 basis points to approximately 1.75% [1] - Historical patterns indicate that similar rapid increases in yields often occur during periods of policy tightening or improved economic expectations. Although inflation expectations have risen, the increase in bond yields is primarily attributed to unexpected continuous rises in commodity prices, leading to emotional shocks in the market [1] Future Outlook - It is anticipated that the short-term upward space for bond yields will be limited. If inflation expectations continue to rise, it may put pressure on bonds. Given the substantial government bond issuance in the third quarter, the central bank may consider early debt purchases, which could restrict significant yield increases [2] - In August, the expected range for the 10-year government bond yield is projected to be between 1.65% and 1.80%. Investors are advised to focus on downside risks during trading opportunities [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi, 511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are difficult to fall back due to the shift from inflation expectations to economic recession expectations after Trump took office, and the high sentiment of gold prices makes them still prone to rise and difficult to fall. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices due to stronger tariff concerns [10][13]. - Today, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision, Powell's speech, the US July ADP, and the eurozone's second - quarter GDP. Gold prices have rebounded, and the premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 1.8 yuan/gram. The domestic commodity market has recovered, and gold prices are oscillating. Silver prices have also rebounded, but the rebound is limited, and the market is waiting for the expiration date of the trade agreement. The support for silver prices still exists [4][5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Trump set a new deadline for the ultimatum to Russia, most domestic futures rose, and gold prices rebounded. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, while major European stock indexes closed up across the board. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield down 8.75 basis points to 4.322%. The US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808. COMEX gold futures rose 0.46% to $3325.30 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Most domestic futures rose, and silver prices rebounded. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, while major European stock indexes closed up across the board. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield down 8.75 basis points to 4.322%. The US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808. COMEX silver futures rose 0.43% to $38.39 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.86, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipt is 30,258 kilograms, unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 1,208,269 kilograms, with a daily increase of 21,015 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Australia's second - quarter CPI - 13:30: France's preliminary second - quarter GDP - 16:00: Germany's preliminary unadjusted second - quarter GDP - 17:00: The eurozone's preliminary second - quarter GDP - 20:15: The US July ADP employment number (the "small non - farm") - 20:30: The US preliminary second - quarter GDP, and the US Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing report statement - 21:45: The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision - 22:00: The US June pending home sales index - Time TBD: The US President's Digital Asset Working Group's release of the cryptocurrency policy report - Next day 02:00: The Fed's release of the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement - Next day 02:30: Fed Chairman Powell's regular press conference - Next day 05:30: The Central Bank of Brazil's interest rate decision [15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on July 29, 2025, the long position was 217,535, an increase of 246 or 0.11% from the previous day; the short position was 67,745, an increase of 3,292 or 5.11% from the previous day; the net position was 149,790, a decrease of 3,046 or 1.99% from the previous day [31]. - **Silver**: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on July 29, 2025, the long position was 387,020, a decrease of 14,545 or 3.62% from the previous day; the short position was 285,323, a decrease of 16,893 or 5.59% from the previous day; the net position was 101,697, an increase of 2,348 or 2.36% from the previous day [33].

新加坡金融管理局强调，当前的货币政策立场与中期物价稳定的目标相符，因此决定维持现有的货币政 策设置不变，以支持经济平稳过渡并应对可能出现的挑战。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京7月30日电新加坡金融管理局（MAS）表示，将继续维持新加坡元名义有效汇率政策区间 的现行升值幅度不变，同时保持货币区间的宽度和中点稳定。 新加坡金融管理局指出，尽管全球和新加坡本地经济展现出一定的韧性，但随着前期投资活动效应的逐 渐消退，预计经济增长势头将在2025年下半年有所放缓。此外，贸易冲突、金融或地缘政治冲击的潜在 升级也可能进一步拖累全球经济，并影响新加坡的增长前景。 对于通胀预期，新加坡金融管理局预测2025年全年核心通胀率和消费者物价指数（CPI）通胀率将平均 保持在0.5%至1.5%之间。短期内，通胀压力应能得到有效控制，然而未来几个季度的通胀前景仍面临 上行和下行风险。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行将于本周四公布利率决议和经济前景展望报告。市场普遍预计日本央行将 基准利率维持在0.5%不变，并可能会上调本财年的通胀预测。在美日贸易协议减少一些不确定性后， 投资者正在寻找今年再次加息的迹象。 本次会议的主要焦点将是日本央行今年是否会再次加息。目前市场预计年底前加息的可能性约为75%。 据知情人士此前透露，在日美贸易协议消除了一个关键的不确定性因素后，日本央行官员有可能考虑再 次加息。 由于仍需评估关税的实际影响，日本央行目前不会考虑突然加息。日本央行副行长内田真一上周表示， 尽管该协议是一个重大突破，但不确定性仍然很高。 不过，市场对日本央行再次加息的预期升温，10月成为下一次加息的潜在时间点。上周，德意志银行证 券和巴克莱证券均将加息预期提前至10 月。 美国和日本于7月22日意外达成贸易协议，将大部分关税定为15%。此前，欧盟和美国也达成了类似的 协议，缓解了人们对全球经济的担忧。 知情人士透露，日本央行官员认为此次谈判的结果大致符合预期，因此可能无需对日本央行的整体经济 展望做出重大调整。 日本央行在4月份的展望报告中表示，由于关税的影响，经济增长预计会暂时停滞，之后会有 ...

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose from a revised 95.2 in June to 97.2 in July, indicating a gradual stabilization since April's decline [1] - The "present situation index" decreased by 1.5 points to 131.5, reflecting increased concerns about the current job market, while the "expectations index" increased by 4.5 points to 74.4, although it remains below the 80 threshold that typically signals a recession [1] - Only 14.3% of consumers rated the current business conditions as "bad," a slight decrease from 15% in June, while those rating it as "good" fell from 20.5% to 20.1% [1] Group 2 - Consumer confidence improvements were primarily driven by individuals aged 35 and older, with all income levels showing positive trends except for households earning less than $15,000 [2] - Concerns about tariffs remain high among consumers, with inflation expectations slightly decreasing to 5.8% in July from 5.9% in June, despite increased mentions of "high prices" and "inflation" [2] - Confidence in the stock market has improved, with 47.9% of respondents expecting stock prices to rise in the next 12 months, up from 37.6% three months prior [2] Group 3 - Consumers expect interest rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards to rise, with the expectation for credit card rates being the most pronounced [3] - The assessment of household financial conditions remains stable but shows signs of fatigue, with a decrease in the proportion of consumers expecting a recession in the next 12 months, although it remains above 2024 levels [3] - There has been a decline in the willingness to purchase cars and homes, while service consumption intentions have decreased for the second consecutive month, particularly in dining out and travel-related expenses [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure as the A-share market rises above 3600 points, with significant declines in government bond futures and yields across various maturities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - On July 29, government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.78% and the 10-year main contract down 0.25% [2][5]. - Since early July, the 30-year government bond futures have seen a cumulative decline of over 2%, while the 10-year futures have dropped nearly 1% [5]. - Major interest rates on bonds have generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 3.05 basis points to 1.9535% [6]. Group 2: Factors Affecting the Bond Market - The bond market's weakness is attributed to strong performance in equity and commodity markets, tightening liquidity, and expectations for macroeconomic policy changes [3][4][8]. - The "anti-involution" narrative has led to rising inflation expectations, challenging the previous low-demand, low-inflation logic that supported the bond market [9][10]. - The recent tightening of liquidity has increased the sensitivity of trading institutions to negative news, amplifying market volatility [10][12]. Group 3: Redemption Pressure on Bond Funds - There is a rising pressure for redemptions in bond funds, with concerns that this could lead to significant declines similar to those seen at the end of 2022 [14][15]. - Over the past week, more than ten funds have had to adjust their net asset values due to large redemptions [15][16]. - Despite the recent adjustments in bond fund net values, the overall scale of bond ETFs has been increasing, reaching over 500 billion yuan by July 18 [18][19]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current redemption pressures are more about proactive profit-taking rather than a panic sell-off, indicating that the overall selling scale remains manageable [21]. - The market is expected to remain volatile, with key factors to watch including the stabilization of risk assets and potential new policies from the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting [22].