Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - **Asphalt**: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - **Natural Gas**: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **PX**: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **PTA**: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Short Fiber**: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - **PET Bottle Chip**: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - **Styrene**: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - **Plastic PP**: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - **Glass**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Urea**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Methanol**: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - **Log**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Double - offset Paper**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Corrugated Paper**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Pulp**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - **Related News**: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - **Related News**: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - **Related News**: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - **Related News**: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - **Related News**: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - **Related News**: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - **Related News**: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - **Related News**: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - **Related News**: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - **Related News**: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - **Related News**: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - **Related News**: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - **Related News**: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - **Related News**: Log arrival volume changes [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - **Related News**: Market order and price change situation [44] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - **Related News**: Market price and demand situation [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - **Related News**: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - **Logic Analysis**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5*SP2509 - 2*RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - **Related News**: Styrene market situation [50] - **Logic Analysis**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - **Related News**: Thai rubber import policy [54] - **Logic Analysis**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]

Report Overview - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures PTA Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Research Team: Cotton Spinning Team - Analysts: Hong Runxia, Huang Shanghai - Contacts: Zhong Zhou, Gu Zhenxiang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of the PTA industry are acceptable, and prices will fluctuate within a range [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - PX: Last week, domestic PX production was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Due to the continuous decline in downstream polyester start - up, PX destocking slowed down. With the weakening support from the cost - end crude oil, PX prices gradually declined [2]. - PTA: Last week, PTA prices fluctuated and declined. The cost - end international oil prices weakened due to the expected increase in production. On the supply side, PTA start - up increased slightly, while downstream polyester load decreased slightly. PTA destocking continued, and the short - term fundamentals still had some support [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Last week, ethylene glycol prices fluctuated and declined. At the beginning, due to the decrease in domestic production and imported arrivals, domestic ethylene glycol prices continued to rise. However, due to downstream enterprises' resistance to high - priced goods and the expected decline in cost - end oil prices, the short - term price maintained a volatile operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Last week, short - fiber prices fluctuated following the raw material prices. At the beginning, affected by the decline in the raw material end, short - fiber prices declined. Then, due to producers and traders being bearish on the future market and willing to sell at low prices, the spot and futures prices were dragged down. However, due to the tight liquidity of some goods, the decline was limited [2]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 22, the PTA spot price was 4,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan or 0.04%. As of the 23rd, the PTA spot price increased by 20 to 4,880 yuan/ton. There was a game between cost and demand, and the market was re - balancing future supply and demand. The absolute price fluctuated at the lower end, the spot basis was relatively strong, and the trading on the trading side was active, with overall quiet trading [4][6]. 3.3 PTA Upstream - Crude oil: As of May 21, the WTI price was $61.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.08% from May 15; the Brent price was $64.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.59% from May 15. The main influencing factors were the ongoing differences in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the improved market expectations for demand prospects, as well as the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories [7]. - PX: The domestic PX production last week was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The spread between PX and naphtha and the spread between PX and MX increased. Due to the unplanned load reduction or shutdown of some enterprises, the spot tightness of PX continued, and the spot purchasing power increased. As of May 21, the average PX - N was $268.47 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $22.05 per ton, and the average PX - M was $110.37 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $8.95 per ton [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Last week, the domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and Jiayun's No. 2 line was shut down for maintenance near the weekend. Overall, the domestic capacity utilization rate increased slightly [15]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.66%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants was 55.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 55%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from the previous week [17]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - Last week, China's polyester industry's weekly production was 1,584,900 tons, an increase of 160 tons or 0.1% from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry was 90.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. The different trends of production and capacity utilization were mainly due to the maintenance of some polyester factories during the week, but the inclusion of Xin Fengming's new plant at the end of last week and the increased load of Xin Fengming and Hengyi's new plants this week [22]. 3.7 Terminal Weaving - Last week, the comprehensive start - up rate of major domestic weaving production bases was 57.65%, the same as the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. Currently, the tail orders of domestic summer clothing fabrics are being gradually delivered, and subsequent orders are declining. With unclear new foreign trade orders, the off - season atmosphere in the market is becoming more obvious, and the inventory of grey fabrics has slightly increased. The local market still mainly consists of small - batch orders, and the sustainability of the overall order quantity remains to be observed [24]. 3.8 Market Outlook - PX: Affected by the expected increase in crude oil production, the cost support weakened. With the continued maintenance of domestic and overseas plants, it is expected that the weekly PX production will increase slightly, and PX prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [25]. - PTA: With the weak support from crude oil at the cost end, although some plants are planned to restart, overall production will increase. Downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the destocking of supply and demand slows down. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton [25]. - Ethylene Glycol: With the weak international crude oil prices and weak cost support, and considering the supply - demand pattern, it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,350 - 4,500 yuan/ton [25]. - Short - fiber: With the decline in PTA prices at the raw material end and the narrowing of processing fees, and the weak terminal demand, it is expected that short - fiber market prices will fluctuate and consolidate within a range [25]. 3.9 Strategy Suggestion - Enterprises should conduct hedging based on costs.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Sinopec, New Natural Gas, and Zhongman Petroleum [5]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are influencing oil prices, with the situation remaining tense as Israel prepares for potential actions against Iran [1][9]. - OPEC+ is considering further production increases, which may hinder oil prices from breaking through current levels despite the upcoming peak demand season [2][10]. - The U.S. oil production and refinery processing rates are on the rise, with crude oil production reaching 13.39 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels week-on-week [3][11]. - The report suggests two main investment themes: focusing on resilient oil companies with strong dividend yields and those in the growth phase of natural gas production [3][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The geopolitical landscape remains unstable, particularly regarding Israel and Iran, which could impact global oil demand [1][9]. - OPEC+ is discussing a potential increase in oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for July, which could affect market prices [2][10]. - The U.S. has seen an increase in both crude oil and gasoline inventories, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3][11]. Market Performance - As of May 23, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, down 0.96% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $61.53 per barrel, down 1.54% [2][38]. - The report notes a decline in the dollar index, which may influence oil prices, alongside a rise in Northeast Asia's LNG prices [2][10]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are highlighted for their strong earnings potential and high dividend characteristics [3][12]. - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for major companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The market may show a long - term back structure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of bauxite suspension in Guinea, bauxite price expectations, and domestic alumina capacity changes. For now, arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [14][15][16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [21][24]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [27][28]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on lead prices. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [34][35]. - Nickel prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [38][40][43]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [47][48][49]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [53][54][55]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline. Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [59][60]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be bearish. Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [63][65]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [68][69][70]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 77,920 yuan, down 0.22%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 6,043 lots to 525,000 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Alumina**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 32 yuan/ton to 3,216 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. Positions increased by 19,583 lots to 511,400 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20,270 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 3,682 lots to 520,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 1,119 lots to 227,500 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai showed a slight improvement in trading [26]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract fell 1.21% to 16,685 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Lead index increased its position by 7,829 lots to 73,000 lots. Spot prices decreased [30]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 rose 40 to 123,400 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 687 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [45]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,320 yuan/ton or 0.87%. Positions decreased by 4,639 lots to 54,185 lots. Spot prices decreased [52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly and strengthened slightly, closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Spot prices generally decreased [56]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. Spot prices remained stable [61]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [66]. 3.2 Important Information - **Copper**: Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter has resumed operation ahead of schedule and is expected to reach full - capacity production in December. As of May 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions in China increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected that supply and demand will be weak next week [3]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea Axis mining area has been shut down, and the recovery time is unknown. The Guinea transitional authorities have designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas. Alumina production increased week - on - week, and inventories decreased [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: EU - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. Global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons. China's primary aluminum production in April was estimated to be 3.621 million tons. Aluminum inventories decreased, and imports reached a record high [19][20]. - **Zinc**: As of May 22, zinc inventories in seven major regions in China decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Lead**: Due to continuous losses in the secondary lead smelting enterprises, waste battery purchase prices in many regions have been significantly reduced. As of May 22, lead inventories in five major regions decreased [31][33]. - **Nickel**: In March 2025, the global refined nickel production was 317,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 39,400 tons. From January to March, the supply surplus was 123,000 tons [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's stainless steel exports decreased by 5% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10% month - on - month. As of May 22, stainless steel inventories increased slightly [46]. - **Tin**: In April, the production of integrated circuits, electronic computers, and washing machines showed different trends. African tin mines are gradually resuming production [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The US has launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from multiple countries [57][58]. - **Polysilicon**: In April, China's total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The US is negotiating tariffs, and the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fees is approaching. The spread between Comex and LME is driving the flow of electrolytic copper. Although there is short - term pressure on spreads after delivery, the inventory is still far below the safety level, and demand remains resilient [4]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea policy may reduce the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and bauxite prices are expected to rise. Alumina production increased, but inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is stable. LME aluminum inventories are decreasing, aluminum imports are increasing, and consumption is growing. Aluminum inventories are at a low level, which may support the price difference [21]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and inventories are decreasing [27]. - **Lead**: Secondary lead smelters are still in a loss state, which supports lead prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upward space of prices [34]. - **Nickel**: In the first quarter, there was a surplus of refined nickel. Although nickel ore prices support nickel prices, the supply is expected to increase after May, and demand will enter the off - season [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [47]. - **Tin**: African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tension is expected to ease. The demand side has not improved significantly, and prices are mainly driven by the macro - environment [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. Inventories are high, which suppresses prices [59]. - **Polysilicon**: In May, polysilicon production and silicon wafer production decreased, and inventories are expected to decrease. The spot price is weak, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [63][65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [68]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [24]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuate within a range. Try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [28]. - **Lead**: Fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [35]. - **Nickel**: Weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [41][42][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48][49]. - **Tin**: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [60]. - **Polysilicon**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [69][70].

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑 市场要闻与数据 在原油上涨和主流供应商减合约消息下，周三PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。 市场分析 成本端，市场近期关注点在宏观和地缘上反复切换，目前暂无消息指引，油价拉锯盘整，继续关注美伊核谈和俄 乌谈判方面进展。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-13.25美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 67,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 73,000 tons, an 8.96% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 599,000 tons, a 0.50% increase; the sample - enterprise inventory was 247,600 tons, a 6.53% decrease; the main - port inventory was 132,000 tons, a 0.75% decrease [8]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,615 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [7]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 7,760 - 7,970 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned output for May is 94,800 tons, a 0.62% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: The silicon - wafer output last week was 12.42 GW, a 0.56% increase; the inventory was 194,400 tons, a 7.22% increase. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 54.3 GW, a 6.94% decrease from the previous month. The battery - cell output in April was 65.55 GW, a 14.35% increase; the external - sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.91 GW, a 76.56% increase. The production of battery cells is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 60.84 GW, a 7.18% decrease. The component output in April was 59.4 GW, a 16.47% increase; the expected component output for May is 53.03 GW, a 10.72% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 51.3 GW, an 11.74% increase; the European monthly inventory is 41.28 GW, a 14.35% decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type materials in the industry is 36,330 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 170 yuan/ton [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 35,215 - 36,505 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost support has increased, and the supply - side production plan has decreased [7][8]. - Basis: On May 21st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory situation is mixed, with an increase in social inventory and decreases in sample - enterprise and main - port inventories. Bearish [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. Polysilicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost is stable, and although the supply - side production plan is decreasing, the demand is expected to recover in the medium term [10][11]. - Basis: On May 21st, the price of N - type polysilicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history. Neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the longs decreased. Bullish [11]. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract down 1.32%, the 02 contract down 1.09%, etc. [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon also showed a downward trend, with the price of East - China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon down 1.15% [18]. - Inventory data showed changes in different regions, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts increased, and the prices of various silicon - related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some having small fluctuations [20]. Downstream Market Analysis Organic Silicon - DMC production: The daily production capacity utilization rate was 60.11%, remaining unchanged from the previous period and lower than the historical average [41]. - Price and cost: The price of DMC and other organic - silicon products remained stable, and the cost and profit situation showed certain characteristics, with the profit of DMC at - 301 yuan/ton [18][41]. - Inventory: The monthly inventory of DMC was 105,000 tons, a 7.49% decrease [18]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: The daily price of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,400 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply and demand: The monthly production of primary - aluminum - based aluminum - alloy ingots increased by 4.45%, while the monthly production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 5.28% [18]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots was 13,900 tons, a 5.44% decrease [18]. Polysilicon - Cost: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained stable at 36.33 yuan/kg [20]. - Price: The prices of various polysilicon products showed a downward trend, with the price of granular silicon down 1.52% [20]. - Supply and demand: The supply and demand situation showed certain changes, with the monthly supply increasing by 6.66% and the monthly consumption increasing by 7.03% [20]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, and the domestic component inventory increased by 11.74% [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical conflicts and uncertain macro - economic factors. Brent is expected to trade in the range of $60 - 70 per barrel in the medium - term [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by cost and low inventory, with a relatively optimistic outlook during the peak season, and the BU2506 contract is expected to trade between 3400 - 3600 [7]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental outlook [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing seasonal power - generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - Natural gas prices in the US are expected to be volatile and weak, while in Europe, they are expected to be volatile and strong [14][15]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the third quarter, with prices expected to be well - supported [16][18]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - Short - fiber prices follow the trend of raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - The bottle - chip market has improved trading volume, but the processing fee may still be under pressure [24]. - PVC is in a short - term price - oscillation state and a long - term supply - surplus situation; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [27][28]. - Plastic and PP are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the medium and short - term [29]. - The price of soda ash is expected to decline due to cost reduction and lack of significant driving factors [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and enter the off - season, with mid - term concerns about cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34]. - Methanol is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [37]. - Urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory state, with a focus on policy changes [39]. - The corrugated and box - board paper market is expected to rebound due to tariff relaxation, but policy continuity and other factors need to be monitored [40][41]. - The double - offset paper market continues to be weak, with slow demand release [43]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short - term but faces challenges in the long - term [44]. - For natural rubber, the RU 09 contract should hold short positions, and the NR 07 contract should be observed [47]. - For paper pulp, the SP 07 contract should be observed [49]. - For butadiene rubber, the BR 07 contract should be observed, and relevant spreads and options should be operated according to specific strategies [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2506 settled at $62.56, down $0.13 (- 0.21%); Brent2507 settled at $65.38, down $0.16 (- 0.24%); SC2507 rose 3.2 to 464.6 yuan/barrel, and 3.2 to 467.8 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Israel is reported to be preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities; the EU and the UK imposed new sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to short - term price volatility, and the long - term supply surplus pressure is difficult to resolve [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation is strong, and medium - term is weak; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options are on hold [3][4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2506 closed at 3523 points (- 0.51%) at night; BU2509 closed at 3450 points (- 0.17%) at night [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and South China have different trends, affected by supply, demand, and crude oil prices [4][5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost support and low inventory support the price, and the peak - season outlook is optimistic [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4236 (- 0.19%) at night; PG2507 closed at 4160 (- 0.36%) at night [7]. - **Related News**: The market in South China, East China, and Shandong has different trends, affected by supply and demand [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost increases, supply rises, and demand in the off - season is weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and weakness [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 3031 (- 0.13%) at night; LU07 closed at 3525 (- 1.04%) at night [10]. - **Related News**: China's fuel oil imports increased in April; Russia's exports increased; Saudi Arabia may increase crude oil power - generation [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; FU 9 - 1 positive spread takes profit, and LU 7 - 8 reverse spread enters at high prices [13]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH closed at 3.427 (+ 10%); TTF closed at 36.979 (+ 4.98%); JKM closed at 12.595 (+ 5.09%) [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: US inventory accumulation is higher than average, with supply and demand changes; European prices are affected by geopolitics and supply reduction [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: US natural gas is volatile and weak, while European natural gas is volatile and strong [15]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6668 (- 1.24%) during the day and 6706 (+ 0.57%) at night [15]. - **Related News**: Northeast PX device starts maintenance; polyester production and sales are weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term start - up rate changes little, and the supply - demand situation is tight in the third quarter [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4732 (- 0.92%) during the day and 4750 (+ 0.38%) at night [16]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak; some PTA devices have start - up and restart changes [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the third - quarter supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4413 (+ 0.34%) during the day and 4416 (+ 0.07%) at night [18]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak; some MEG devices have start - up and shutdown changes [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 closed at 6506 (- 0.58%) during the day and 6506 (0%) at night [20]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices follow raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; on hold for arbitrage; on hold for options [20][21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 closed at 6022 (- 1.08%) during the day and 6028 (+ 0.10%) at night [21]. - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes are mostly lowered [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices follow raw materials, with improved trading volume but processing fees under pressure [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [24][25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices are slightly adjusted, and caustic soda prices rise slightly [25]. - **Related News**: Shandong alumina manufacturers increase the purchase price of caustic soda [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is in a short - term oscillation and long - term surplus situation; caustic soda demand has uncertainties [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: PVC is short - sold on rebounds; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling; on hold for arbitrage and options [27][28]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fall in some regions, and PP prices have slight fluctuations [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being realized, and demand is weak, so they are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices in the medium and short - term; on hold for arbitrage and options [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closes at 1280 yuan/ton (- 0.3%), and the SA9 - 1 spread is 6 yuan/ton [29]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash enterprises start maintenance, and the market is lightly adjusted [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is expected to decrease in the short - term, but the market trades the post - maintenance surplus situation, and demand is weak [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cost reduction leads to price decline; short soda ash and long glass; on hold for options [32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closes at 1025 yuan/ton (0.69%), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 56 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related News**: Glass prices in different regions have different trends, and the LPR is lowered [33][34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices are in a bottom - seeking trend, with supply decline and inventory pressure in the off - season [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are volatile and weak; long glass and short soda ash; on hold for options [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures close at 2269 (- 0.53%) at night [34]. - **Related News**: Northwest methanol signing volume decreases [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is high, imports will increase, and domestic supply is loose, so it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures close at 1849 (+ 0.11%) [37]. - **Related News**: Urea production and inventory changes, and export policies are discussed [38][39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term long on pullbacks; 91 positive spread layout at low prices; sell put options [39][40]. Corrugated and Box - Board Paper - **Related News**: Paper prices rise, and waste yellow - board paper prices rise [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tariff relaxation promotes export recovery and price rebound, but factors such as policy continuity need to be monitored [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The market is stable, with weak demand [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak, with slow demand release and stable cost support [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and import and arrival data change [43][44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term is expected to be stable, but the long - term faces challenges from real - estate demand and inventory [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe for single - side trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; on hold for options [45]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09, JRU10, NR07, TF08, and BR07 all decline [45][46]. - **Related News**: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Thailand's rubber exports and Japan's inventory have changes [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the RU09 contract; observe the NR07 contract; on hold for arbitrage and options [47]. Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP07 contract closes at 5424 (+ 0.26%) [48]. - **Related News**: Two major state - owned enterprises in the pulp industry adjust management, which may enhance pricing power [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: CME wood prices and domestic paper - industry inventory have negative impacts on SP [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP07 contract; on hold for arbitrage [49]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR07 closes at 12095 (- 0.45%) [50]. - **Related News**: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene inventory and tire exports have impacts on spreads [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR07 contract; reduce positions and observe the BR2507 - NR2507 spread; sell and hold the BR2507 put 11200 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's high [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has its own market situation, trend, and influencing factors, and the report gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend intensity ratings for each commodity [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Rubber - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume decreased, the open interest of the 09 contract increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The spot - futures basis and the difference between different months showed certain changes. The prices of some foreign - sourced rubbers decreased [6]. - **Industry News**: In April 2025, automobile production and sales showed a year - on - year increase, and new - energy vehicle exports maintained high growth [8]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: The price of butadiene has corrected, and the market is under pressure to fluctuate. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume, open interest, and trading value of the futures market decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The prices of various types of synthetic rubber in the spot market decreased, and the price of butadiene also declined [9]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in Chinese sample enterprises decreased. The domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the price increase space of butadiene rubber was limited [9][12]. Asphalt - **Market Trend**: It is in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume of futures increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The prices of spot asphalt in different regions changed, and the refinery's operating rate and inventory rate decreased [13]. - **Market News**: The weekly output of domestic asphalt decreased, and the inventory of sample factories and social warehouses decreased [26]. LLDPE - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations, with pressure in the later period. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][27]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed slightly. The spot prices in different regions decreased [27]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Although the export of plastic products provides short - term support, the supply pressure of polyethylene is large, with high production and high inventory. The demand in the later period is weak, and the trend is under pressure [28]. PP - **Market Trend**: The price decreased slightly, and the trading volume was average. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][31]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed slightly. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [31]. - **Spot News**: The domestic PP market weakened, the futures price declined, and the market trading atmosphere was flat [32]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: The rebound is difficult to sustain. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][34]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 09 contract and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong are provided, along with the basis [34]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The downstream demand for caustic soda lacks continuous driving force, the supply is high, and there is new production capacity in the future. It is in the demand off - season, and the supply needs to be reduced to balance supply and demand [36]. Pulp - **Market Trend**: It is in a fluctuating state. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][39]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume and open interest of futures decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The domestic and international prices of different types of pulp changed [40]. - **Industry News**: The pulp market was weak, the spot price decreased slightly, and the port inventory was high. The price of household paper was weak, and the demand was in the off - season [41][43]. Glass - **Market Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][44]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price increased, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly [44]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market was weak, the price was adjusted downward, and the market was waiting and watching [44]. Methanol - **Market Trend**: It is under pressure to fluctuate. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][47]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price, trading volume, and trading value decreased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions decreased [48]. - **Spot News**: The methanol spot price index decreased, the prices in many regions decreased, the enterprise inventory increased, and the downstream demand was limited. The port inventory decreased last week, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [50]. Urea - **Market Trend**: It is in a high - level fluctuating state. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][52]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price increased slightly, the trading volume and trading value decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices of factories and traders were stable or decreased slightly [53]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of urea enterprises decreased. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with a balance between long and short positions, with support below and limited upward space due to policy control [54][55]. Styrene - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][56]. - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different contracts of styrene decreased, and the profit margins of non - integrated and integrated operations decreased. The difference between different months changed [56]. - **Spot News**: The price of pure benzene is still weak, the supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient. The inventory of styrene is low, and the downstream production and sales showed short - term improvement [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market has little change. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][58]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable [60]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable, the supply decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was average, with a short - term stable trend expected [60]. LPG - **Market Trend**: The short - term support is strengthening, and attention should be paid to the rebound of the domestic market. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][62]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The differences between different prices changed, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased [62]. - **Market News**: The expected prices of Saudi CP in June and July decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans in the market [69][70]. PVC - **Market Trend**: There is still pressure in the later period. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][72]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price, spot price, basis, and the difference between the 9 - 1 months are provided [72]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The current PVC production and inventory are high, the production reduction is difficult, the export competition pressure is high, and the domestic demand is weak [72][73]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: The fuel oil had a small increase during the day session and entered an adjustment phase. The low - sulfur fuel oil weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas market rebounded slightly. The trend intensity of both is rated as neutral (0) [2][76]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipts of different contracts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed. The spot prices in different regions also changed [76]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: It is in a high - level fluctuating state. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits on the 6 - 8 backwardation spread and hold the 10 - 12 backwardation spread. [2][78]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and trading volume - to - open - interest ratios of different contracts changed. The freight rate indexes of European and US - West routes showed different trends [78].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and potential investment opportunities and risks for each sector. Short - term and long - term outlooks are presented, with specific trading strategies recommended for certain commodities. Summary by Commodity Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Short - term may show an oscillatory upward trend supported by seasonal demand and geopolitical factors, but the mid - term supply - demand pressure limits the upside. Watch the resistance levels of Brent at $70/barrel and SC at 510 yuan/barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore 380 cracking has strengthened, but there are opportunities for domestic FU cracking to weaken. LU cracking lacks continuous support and has shifted to an oscillatory pattern [21]. - **Natural Gas (LPG)**: The price may decline in the short - term due to supply pressure and weakening PDH operation rate, but pay attention to the recovery of chemical demand [23]. - **Bitumen**: Profit is relatively prominent, with expected decline in production capacity utilization. Northern demand is increasing, while southern demand is affected by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in an oscillatory adjustment phase. Gold has strong support at $3000/ounce, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Domestic consumption may weaken after mid - May. Maintain short positions above 78,000 yuan for the 2507 contract [4]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory reduction has slowed down. Pay attention to the resistance at 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: Although there are concerns about supply, the overall situation is still one of oversupply. Wait for short - selling opportunities after the market sentiment calms down [6]. - **Zinc**: Supply is in the recovery stage, while demand is weak. Maintain a short - allocation view in the range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: Consumption in May was better than expected, but there are concerns about substitution. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak adjustment phase. The NPI price has declined, and the market is waiting for a new short - selling opportunity [9]. - **Tin**: The long - term trend is under pressure due to supply and demand concerns. Hold short positions near 265,000 yuan or the MA60 moving average [10]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Supply is becoming more abundant, and the spot price of soybean meal is weak. Be cautious about short - selling in the short - term and look for long - term buying opportunities [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: U.S. soybean oil policy has fluctuations. Domestic soybean oil faces pressure from large - scale arrivals, and palm oil is in a production - increasing period. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range [36]. - **Corn**: The price is oscillating weakly. There is a large supply of circulating grain, and the substitution advantage of wheat is emerging [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Hogs**: The supply is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the spot price may decline, putting downward pressure on the futures price [39]. - **Eggs**: The production capacity is expected to increase until September. The price is seasonally weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term [40]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The U.S. cotton planting rate has increased, and Brazil has raised its production forecast. Domestic cotton imports are low. The price is affected by Sino - U.S. negotiations. Consider a bull - spread option strategy [41]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian production may increase, and domestic inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to oscillate [42]. - **Apples**: The market is focused on new - season production estimates. The fruit - setting rate may be low, but the production is still uncertain. Wait and see for now [43]. - **Wood**: The price is running weakly. Supply pressure has decreased, but demand is in the off - season. Wait and see [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price has increased slightly. Port inventory has decreased significantly, but demand is still weak. Consider light - position buying on dips [45]. Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are oscillating, and the major indexes may wait for new drivers. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - U.S. economic and trade negotiations [46]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The over - sold recovery of the bond market is almost complete. The bulls may oscillate within a range. Consider a curve - steepening strategy [47]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The short - term focus is on the actual implementation of freight rate increases. The mid - term depends on the improvement of supply - demand through U.S. demand. Adopt an inter - period arbitrage strategy [20].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年5月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3615元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月19日，华东不通氧现货价8850元/吨，09合约基差为650元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.9万吨，环比增加0.50%,样本企业库存为247600吨，环比减少6.53%,主要 港口库存为13.2万吨，环比减少0.75%。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 6、预期: 供给端排产有所减少，处于历史平均水平附近，需求复苏处于低位，成本支撑有所上升。 工业硅2509：在8025-8235区间 ...