Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. stock market, gold, and cryptocurrencies experienced a collective surge following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a potential openness to interest rate cuts due to rising risks in the labor market and economic growth [1][8]. - Major U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.98%, S&P 500 up 1.64%, and Nasdaq up 1.97% during Powell's speech [1]. - Large tech stocks also rose, with Tesla increasing by over 5% [2]. Group 2 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw an increase of 2.72%, with notable gains from Chinese companies: NIO up over 13%, Kingsoft Cloud up nearly 10%, XPeng up 5%, and Alibaba up nearly 4% [3]. - Spot gold prices rose over 1% to $3374.48 per ounce, while silver prices increased over 2% to $38.965 per ounce [5]. - Cryptocurrencies experienced a collective rise, with Bitcoin reaching $115,860 (up 2.27%) and Ethereum rising to $4,614.22 (up nearly 8%) [7][8]. Group 3 - Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite high tariffs and tightening immigration policies, but there are signs of significant slowdown in the labor market and economic growth [8]. - He noted that while inflation remains a concern, the rising risks in the labor market may lead the Fed to consider rate cuts in September [8]. - The Fed's revised long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement included the removal of the "average inflation targeting" and a return to a more flexible inflation target [9].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current economic situation suggests an increase in downside risks to employment, which may necessitate interest rate cuts [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions and Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy changes, with the labor market close to maximum employment and inflation having decreased significantly from pandemic highs [5][6]. - Powell noted that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "peculiar balance" due to a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, indicating rising downside risks to employment [3][8]. - GDP growth has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending [8]. Labor Market Insights - Recent employment reports show a slowdown in job growth, averaging only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months, significantly lower than the projected 168,000 jobs per month for 2024 [7][8]. - Despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, it remains historically low, with other labor market indicators showing little change [7][8]. Inflation Dynamics - Powell highlighted that short-term inflation risks are tilted upward, while employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging scenario for monetary policy [4][10]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with the PCE price index rising by 2.6% over the past year, and core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [8][9]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether the price increases from tariffs will lead to sustained inflation, although long-term inflation expectations remain stable [9][10]. Monetary Policy Implications - The current policy rate is closer to neutral, allowing for cautious consideration of policy adjustments based on evolving economic data and risk assessments [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve's framework emphasizes the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices, with recent revisions aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability [11][15]. Framework Review and Adjustments - The review of the monetary policy framework reflects changes in economic conditions over the past five years, acknowledging the need for flexibility in response to evolving challenges [15][19]. - Key changes include the removal of language emphasizing the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining characteristic of the economic environment, and a return to a flexible inflation target framework [16][17]. - The revised consensus statement aims to clarify the approach to balancing employment and inflation targets during periods of conflict [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential need for policy adjustments due to a shift in risk balance, highlighting a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth and weakening consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current U.S. GDP growth is noticeably slowing, reflecting a decline in consumer spending [1] - The latest data shows that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in July, while the core PCE price index increased by 2.9% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve will abandon the flexible average inflation targeting framework adopted in 2020, removing references to the effective lower bound on interest rates [1] - Powell stated that the labor market is in a "peculiar balance," with the policy interest rate at a moderately tight level [1] - The Fed is cautious in considering policy adjustments due to stable unemployment rates, aiming to prevent transient price increases from evolving into persistent inflation [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Following Powell's speech, traders estimated a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the speech [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts before the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts as early as next month, indicating a shift in economic outlook due to a possible significant slowdown in the labor market and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the balance of risks is changing, with the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates [1][3]. - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady this year, citing a robust labor market and uncertainty regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer and is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising questions about whether these price increases will lead to persistent inflation risks [2][4]. - He expressed greater confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but warned that rising costs could lead to a wage-price spiral if workers successfully negotiate higher wages [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, with the probability now exceeding 90%, up from about 75% before his remarks [5]. - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, while the dollar index fell below 98 [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts believe Powell's dovish stance indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, driven by labor market weaknesses rather than tariff-induced price increases [7][8]. - Powell's commitment to data-driven policy decisions reflects a response to political pressures, emphasizing that monetary policy will not follow a predetermined path [8].

据报道，美联储官员柯林斯表示，通胀面临上行风险，劳动力市场面临下行风险。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-22 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 逐 | 全 | 美 | 制 | 现 | 风 | 美 | 但 | 份 | 降 | 望 | " | 大， | 体 | 对 | 的 | 加 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有 | 尔 | 调 | 月 | 要 | 行 | 不 | 场 | 增 | 4， | 单 | 霍 | 9 | 期 | 纪 | 化 | 下 | 市 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with a government deficit reaching $1.83 trillion, indicating a rapidly deteriorating economic situation [1][2][3] - In the previous year, U.S. government revenue was $4.92 trillion, while expenditures totaled $6.75 trillion, leading to an alarming deficit [2] - Despite the economic challenges, former President Trump has made contradictory statements, claiming "victory" in various aspects of the economy, which contrasts sharply with the reality of the national debt and deficit [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's administration attempted to implement cost-cutting measures by forming a "government efficiency department" led by Elon Musk, but this initiative failed within three months due to backlash from bureaucratic and interest groups [5][7] - The administration's plan to impose a 10% tariff on $4.11 trillion of imports was met with resistance from allies, who refused to bear the financial burden, leading to complications in the tariff strategy [7][9] - Retailers in the U.S. have begun raising prices on imported goods due to increased costs from tariffs, contributing to a resurgence in inflation, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [11][15] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has maintained a tight monetary policy to combat inflation, resulting in rising loan rates that are causing financial strain on small and medium-sized enterprises [15] - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" plan, which aimed to support key industries, has been criticized for primarily benefiting Wall Street giants and energy companies while cutting healthcare subsidies for ordinary citizens [15][20] - The U.S. is seeking financial support from allies like Japan and the EU, but these countries have expressed their own economic pressures and are unwilling to provide assistance [17][20] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has expressed a desire to strengthen economic cooperation with China, hoping for increased purchases of U.S. agricultural products and bonds, but China has reduced its holdings of U.S. debt by over $20 billion [20][22] - China's response to U.S. economic overtures has been clear: it demands an end to confrontational policies before considering any financial support, highlighting the inconsistency in U.S. policy [22][24] - The fundamental issue facing the U.S. economy lies in its dual standards of policy, seeking cooperation while simultaneously imposing restrictions on other nations, which is unlikely to resolve the ongoing economic crisis [22][24]

如果美联储降息的步伐不如市场所预期的那样迅速，或者完全放弃降息的想法，那么美国股市在进一步 走高的道路上可能会遇到阻碍。华尔街的目光已集中在周五杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会美联储主席鲍威尔 的讲话上。尽管交易员们推测，就业增长放缓可能为美联储转向更鸽派立场打开大门，但更高的风险在 于，在一系列超出预期的通胀数据出炉后，鲍威尔仍然对政策路径守口如瓶。 StoneX Group的高级顾问Jon Hilsenrath表示："鲍威尔的处境确实很艰难。他可能会承认9月降息看起来 是大概率时间，但不会给出一系列降息的时间表，因为美联储应对通胀的工作尚未完成。"Jon Hilsenrath表示，鲍威尔可能会暗示他倾向于在9月降息25个基点，但由于关税与通胀的不确定性，他不 大可能会释放更多信息。 话虽如此，鲍威尔近年来确实利用这一场合发表过一些影响市场的政策声明。例如，鲍威尔在去年的杰 克逊霍尔央行年会上表示，降息的"时机已经到来"。这一表态推动标普500指数当天上涨了1%以上。而 在2022年，鲍威尔警告称，美联储将需要保持货币政策的限制性，以对铜通胀。这一鹰派言论导致标普 500指数当天暴跌3.4%，且在随后一周又下跌3.3 ...

金十财经 . 以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示："我以开放的心态参加每一次 会议 。但根据我目前掌握的数据和信息，如果会议是明天举行，我认为没有理由 降低利率。" 堪萨斯联储主席施密德在表示："我认为我们目前的政策处于一个非常好的位置，除非有非常明确的数据，否则现在不应轻易调整政策。" 金融市场目前押注美联储将在下月会议上将基准利率下调25个基点，鲍威尔可能会释放相关信号。 7月就业数据意外疲软，加上5月和6月的就 业数据被大幅下修，进一步增强了市场对降息的预期。 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 三位美联储官员周四对下月降息的预期泼下冷水，投资者则在为美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔央行年会的演讲做准备。 高盛表示，他们不认为鲍威尔周五的讲话会明确表示9月将降息，但预计他会向市场传达他可能支持降息的立场。 截至发稿，利率期货定价美联 储今年将降息约47个基点，9月降息的可能性为70.4%。 美联储决策者面临的挑战在于，尽管劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，这通常会支持降息，但通胀仍高于美联储设定的2%目标，而且由于特朗普政府 大幅提高 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation includes ongoing flood - prevention, geopolitical tensions, and hawkish signals from the Fed. Supply - demand shows high iron - water production and increased coking coal inventory. Technically, the coking coal main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to market sentiment decline caused by exchange position limits [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The flood - prevention situation remains severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August. In July, China's rebar production was 1.5182 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative production from January to July was 11.3387 million tons, also a 2.3% year - on - year decrease. Overseas, there are geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water production is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The coking coal inventory has shifted downstream, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the exchange's second position limit in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the futures price is expected to weaken in the short term. The coking coal main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the contract position decreased by 3,482 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke monthly spread decreased by 25 points. The number of registered coke warrants remained unchanged, and the futures ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.01 points [9][11][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, and the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia Wuhai also remained unchanged. As of August 22, the coke basis increased by 43 points to - 184 yuan/ton. In July, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal production was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Upstream**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.17%, an increase of 0.04%. The daily coke output is 523,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons. The coke inventory is 394,700 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory is 8.2394 million tons, a decrease of 54,700 tons. The available days of coking coal are 11.8 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 196,700 tons to 8.5733 million tons, a 13.28% year - on - year increase. The port coke inventory decreased, and the steel mill coke inventory also decreased [36][38][42]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 15.58% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a 21.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 17, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.2773 million square meters, a 1.32% month - on - month decrease and a 12.33% year - on - year decrease. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities increased by 8.00% month - on - month, and that of second - tier cities decreased by 14.70% month - on - month [44][46][49]