UNforex 2月10日讯 随着美联储官员就特朗普政府关税政策公开表态，华尔街主要股指在刷新阶段性高 点后进入整理状态。关税对通胀和消费端的实际影响、劳动力市场放缓是否意味着经济动能降温，正与 即将公布的美国非农就业和CPI数据一道，成为市场重新评估政策预期的核心变量。 在政策分歧与通胀讨论交织的背景下，美股表现趋于克制。周一美股常规交易时段，道琼斯工业平均指 数小幅上涨并刷新收盘纪录，标普500指数与纳斯达克指数在科技股反弹带动下延续升势。进入盘后交 易后，美国股指期货整体小幅回落，标普500、纳斯达克100及道指期货均回调约0.1%。除科技板块 外，其余板块交投偏淡，反映出投资者在关键宏观数据公布前不愿显著增加风险敞口。 在周三非农就业报告公布前，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特提前对市场预期进行引导。他表 示，未来几个月新增就业人数的下降，主要反映人口增长放缓背景下的结构性变化，而非经济动能减 弱。根据市场一致预期，1月美国非农新增就业人数约为6.9万人，失业率预计维持在4.4%。哈塞特指 出，在生产率提升加快的情况下，维持失业率稳定所需的"盈亏平衡就业增速"已明显下降，就业数据的 解读框架正在发生 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, focusing on monetary policy and its implications for various asset markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Stance of Kevin Warsh** Warsh's monetary policy is characterized by a hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and opposing excessive quantitative easing. However, recent comments indicate a shift towards a more neutral position regarding AI's impact on inflation and neutral interest rates [1][3][4]. 2. **Impact of Warsh's Appointment on Global Asset Markets** Following Warsh's appointment, global asset markets experienced significant volatility as investors reassessed market dynamics based on his monetary policy background and experience [2]. 3. **Challenges in Asset and Balance Sheet Policy** Warsh is expected to maintain the current balance sheet policy without major adjustments. The Fed may slow down technical balance sheet expansion and face challenges in restarting balance sheet reduction and modifying regulatory terms [6][8]. 4. **Interest Rate Policy Adjustments** The likelihood of significant shifts in interest rate policy under Warsh is low. Current economic indicators show weak employment and inflation trends, limiting the Fed's ability to adopt a more hawkish or dovish stance [9][10]. 5. **Future Economic Conditions and Rate Cuts** In the absence of significant changes in economic fundamentals, the probability of substantial rate cuts is low. The Fed's decisions will depend on unemployment rates and other economic indicators [10][11][24]. 6. **Differences Between Warsh and Powell** Warsh's approach contrasts with that of former Chairman Powell, as he favors trend-based policy formulation over data dependency, which may lead to increased volatility in macroeconomic and asset markets [12]. 7. **Market Volatility and Underlying Causes** Recent market fluctuations are attributed more to deleveraging trades rather than Warsh's appointment. The bond market's response to Warsh has been relatively stable, indicating that professional investors do not expect drastic changes in monetary policy [13]. 8. **Commodity Market Trends** The commodity market is experiencing a long-term upward trend driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over fiscal sustainability, resembling the inflationary environment of the 1970s [20][22]. 9. **Oil and Precious Metals Price Projections** Oil prices are expected to rebound to $70-$75 per barrel, while gold and other precious metals are driven by investor concerns rather than cyclical pricing [17][18]. 10. **Dollar Index Forecast** The dollar index is projected to remain stable in the first half of 2026 but may weaken in the latter half due to potential changes in fiscal policy and market sentiment [27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Potential Major Events Impacting Markets** Several potential events could lead to significant market shifts, including global fiscal tightening, advancements in AI technology, changes in U.S.-China relations, and renewed central bank independence [22][23]. 2. **Long-term Neutral Interest Rate Considerations** The determination of the neutral interest rate involves both cyclical and structural factors, with current estimates around 3%. However, advancements in productivity due to AI could necessitate a reevaluation of this rate [29]. 3. **Political Influences on Financial Markets** The Trump administration's approach to influencing financial markets through administrative means rather than direct intervention in financial variables is noteworthy, as it aims to achieve political goals without disrupting market pricing [25][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the implications of Kevin Warsh's leadership at the Federal Reserve and its potential impact on various markets.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have an oscillating rebound, while silver is predicted to decline from its high level [2][6]. - The decline of the US dollar supports the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][13]. - Due to the losses in secondary lead production, attention should be paid to the lower support levels of lead [2][16]. - Tin is undergoing technical correction [2][19]. - It is recommended to hold a light position in aluminum before the holiday; alumina is expected to rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Platinum is in an oscillating consolidation phase, and palladium is trading within a box range [2][26][27]. - Nickel is affected by the exit of funds before the holiday, and the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia; in February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in stainless steel, and the cost support center is moving up [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of gold and silver showed significant increases. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 3.29%, and that of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 10.24%. The trading volumes of both decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased to varying degrees. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 31,354 kg [5]. - **News**: Before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 1.74%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper decreased, while that of London Copper also decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 3,044 tons, and that of London Copper increased by 1,025 tons [10]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds; the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association considered including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve; Glencore suspended major investment in a Canadian smelter; Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year; Capstone Copper will resume full - scale production at a copper - gold mine in Chile [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 0.47%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, while that of London Zinc increased [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 176 tons, and that of London Zinc decreased by 675 tons [13]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning" about lower - than - expected employment growth [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 0.45%. The trading volumes of both decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 4,968 tons, and that of London Lead decreased by 100 tons [16]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Tin and London Tin increased significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 6.61%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased, and that of London Tin also decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 379 tons, and that of London Tin decreased by 55 tons [20]. - **News**: The decline of US Treasury bonds widened; the memory price soared by up to 90% compared to Q4 2025; Tesla's Tao Lin said there is no specific date for FSD to be launched in China; Wang Yi will attend the first senior officials' meeting of APEC in 2026 [20][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The trading volumes of aluminum and alumina decreased, while that of cast aluminum alloy increased [23]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the inventories of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also changed [23]. - **News**: The Fed may reach an agreement with the US Treasury to clarify the balance sheet scale and adjust the bond - holding structure; the market expects the US core CPI to rebound in January [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium increased. The daily increase of platinum futures 2606 was 7.72%, and that of palladium futures 2606 was 6.74%. The trading volumes of both decreased [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium remained unchanged [26]. - **News**: US ships are advised to stay away from Iranian waters; the White House's Hasset predicted a decline in employment; the US Commerce Secretary was involved in a scandal; the EU proposed to include third - country ports in the sanctions against Russia; the UK government's communication director resigned; Alphabet planned to raise about 15 billion US dollars through bond issuance; OpenAI's Altman said ChatGPT's monthly growth rate exceeded 10% [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel increased. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 2,680, and that of the stainless steel main contract increased by 65. The trading volumes of both decreased [30]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses; China implemented export license management for some steel products; the Indonesian government planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore; the planned nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2026 was significantly reduced; some Indonesian mines faced potential fines for illegal land use; the Indonesian government would adjust the nickel production quota according to industry demand; a nickel - carrying ship sank; the Indonesian government approved the mining work plan and budget for 2026; a Swiss company planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; a Chinese company in Indonesia failed to submit an investment report [30][31][33].

Group 1 - The January inflation data in the US is expected to show a moderate month-on-month increase of 0.3% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with a year-on-year growth rate dropping to 2.5% [1] - Historical trends indicate that January inflation data often tends to be higher, with last January's CPI increase surpassing that of any other month [1] - Some Federal Reserve officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts due to the potential for higher inflation being attributed to the passing of tariffs to consumers [1] Group 2 - The interpretation of January's inflation data may be complicated by statistical anomalies, as January is typically a time when businesses raise prices [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts CPI data for seasonal effects, but many economists believe that "residual seasonality" still exists in the data [2] - A study from the Boston Federal Reserve indicates that since 1985, seasonally adjusted January inflation has averaged 0.03 percentage points higher than other months, which is significant for market implications [2] Group 3 - Signs suggest that the upcoming January inflation data may again be elevated, with Adobe reporting significant price increases in online shopping for various goods [3] - Economists note that retailers may pass on higher costs to consumers through post-holiday price adjustments, particularly in categories heavily reliant on imports [3] - The price increases attributed to tariffs and "residual seasonality" may not be mutually exclusive, as businesses could be using the opportunity to restore profit margins [3] Group 4 - Economists from Daiwa Capital Markets believe that the US will not experience runaway inflation in 2026, as consumer sensitivity to prices has become a major political issue [4] - Companies are responding to changing consumer behavior by lowering prices on popular brands to attract budget-conscious shoppers [4] - Executives are increasingly aware of the need to adjust pricing strategies in response to consumer demand shifts, indicating a more cautious approach to passing on price increases [4]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 属市场暴跌。交易员将沃什视为最终候选人中最坚定的通胀抗击者，这提高了对美 元构成支撑、削弱以美元计价黄金的货币政策预期。我们认为美国总统提名美联储 前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大 量的获利盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应， 引起了市场的踩踏。美国 12 月 JOLTs 职位空缺录得 654.2 万人，为 2020 年 9 月以 来新低。密歇根大学消费者信心调查：美国 1 年期通胀预期从 4%降至 13 个月低点 3.5%。美国的最新就业和通胀预期数据有利于推动降息。2 月 9 日美元指数收跌 0.78%，报 96.85。伊朗地缘风险持续发酵。2 月 9 日 COMEX 黄金在 5000 美元/盎司 上方窄幅波动、小幅上涨，COMEX 白银涨幅较大收盘站上 83 美元/盎司。金银暂时 未形成新的趋势方向。作为春节假期安排，上期所宣布自 2026 年 2 月 ...

音频由扣子空间生成 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 在选举年，美国总统特朗普将自己定位为共和党在生活成本问题上的核心发言人，但路透社对其演讲的分析显示，这位总统反复宣称通胀已被击败， 却极少承认许多美国人仍感受到的生活压力。 自去年12月以来的五场经济演讲中，特朗普近20次宣称通胀已被击败或大幅下降，近30次称物价正在下跌，这些说法与经济数据及选民日常体验相 悖。其余大部分时间，他都在表达不满和谈论其他问题，包括移民问题、索马里是否算一个国家，以及对政敌的攻击。 综合来看，这些演讲展现出特朗普正艰难调和其核心主张——已解决生活成本危机——与现实之间的矛盾：过去一年通胀率接近3%，选民购买日常食 品的支出仍在增加。例如，自特朗普一年前上任以来，碎牛肉价格上涨18%，研磨咖啡价格上涨29%。 美国CPI依旧顽固 共和党战略家向路透社表示，在11月中期选举（届时国会控制权将面临争夺）前，特朗普在这一选民最关注的议题上传递的混乱信息，可能给他本人 及共和党带来信誉危机。民调显示，选民对特朗普处理经济的方式极为不满。 共和党战略家罗布・戈弗雷（Rob Godfrey）称："他不能再发表明显错误的言论，尤其是牺牲那 ...

美国总统特朗普最新表示，他提名的美联储主席能够使美国经济实现15%的增长率。这一目标极为乐 观，却也凸显出沃什若通过参议院提名确认，将面临巨大压力。 这些言论显然表明，特朗普坚信沃什若成功上任，能在中期选举前为美国经济注入增长动力——中期选 举历来对在任美国总统而言都是一场严峻考验。 同时，这也意味着沃什未来的履职之路将如走钢丝般艰难，需在多方压力间寻求平衡。 此番言论还表明，特朗普并不担心通胀问题。通常情况下，在经济增长率达到或接近15%的水平时，通 胀率会大幅上升，而目前美国通胀率仍然高企。 根据美联储去年12月发布的经济预测，官员们的中位数预期是2026年仅降息一次。不过，投资者仍预计 今年会有两次降息。 目前尚不完全清楚特朗普所指的是同比增速还是其它度量指标。美国经济今年预计增长2.4%，过去五 十年平均年增长率为2.8%。自1950年代以来，国内生产总值（GDP）增速超过15%的情况屈指可数，其 中包括2020年第三季度，当时企业在新冠疫情解封后重启。 特朗普在寻找新主席的过程中曾表示，他将选择一位支持降息的候选人。他最终选择提名前美联储理事 凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席，考虑到沃什此前的鹰派立场 ...

特朗普把美联储主席人选与"15%经济增长"直接挂钩，释放出对更宽松货币政策的强烈偏好，同时沃什 上任后的政策表现将被置于极高的政治与市场预期之下。 据彭博，特朗普在接受Fox Business采访时表示，如果其提名的沃什获确认并"做到了他有能力做到的工 作"，美国经济"可以增长15%，我认为甚至更高"。相关采访片段于周一播出，完整版预计周二播出。 对市场而言，15%的增长目标本身极为激进，其更现实的含义在于，特朗普希望沃什通过降息在中期选 举前为经济加速，同时对通胀再抬头的担忧显著降低。 但沃什能否尽快走马上任仍存变数，参议员Thom Tillis已表示，在特朗普政府继续推进对鲍威尔的调查 期间，将阻止任何美联储人事确认。 "15%增长"目标：远超目前主流预期 特朗普在采访中称，沃什在其上一次遴选美联储主席时是"第二人选"，并强调沃什"会很伟大，是高质 量的人"。但他提出的15%增长目标，远高于当前主流预期。 彭博指出，特朗普公开推动更低利率，并打破数十年来的惯例，对美联储独立性提出质疑。这一背景意 味着，即便沃什最终获确认，其政策空间也将处于更强的政治聚光灯下。 确认程序的不确定性：Thom Tillis的 ...

金十数据 特朗普声称，他提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什能推动美国经济实现15%的增长。这一目标极其乐 观，凸显了沃什若获得任命将面临的巨大压力。特朗普同时指责鲍威尔的任命是重大失误。 美国总统特朗普表示，他提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）能够刺激经济增长率达到 15%。这一目标极其乐观，但同时也凸显了沃什如果获得确认担任该职务将面临的压力。 特朗普在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，沃什是他上次遴选美联储主席时的"亚军"，并称当年选择杰 罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）担任美联储主席是一个重大错误。 特朗普在谈到鲍威尔时说："我的财政部长非常、非常想要他。我对他感觉并不好，但有时你会听从别 人的意见，这是个错误，真的是个重大错误。"特朗普的完整采访预计将于周二播出。 鲍威尔是在拜登任内获得连任的，但此后成为了特朗普的攻击目标。特朗普极力推动降低利率，并打破 了数十年的先例，对美联储的独立性提出质疑。 这场行动可能会推迟沃什的到任。来自北卡罗来纳州的即将退休的共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）已誓言，只要特朗普政府继续其对鲍威尔的调查，他将阻止任何美联储人选的确认。 ...

美联储米兰：关税并非推动通胀的主要因素。 来源：滚动播报 ...