一位明年拥有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC投票权的官员本周一再强调面临通胀风险，最新表态呼吁谨 慎降息。 美东时间10月2日周四，达拉斯联储主席洛根（Lorie Logan）表示，对待进一步降息，美联储必须"格外 谨慎"，因为通胀仍高于联储的目标水平，而且呈上升趋势。她在得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校商学院研究 生院的发表讲话时说： "我们对未来的降息措施必须格外谨慎，确保政策调整得当，避免过度宽松，最终不得不收 紧政策，那将会给稳定物价带来极大的困难。" 洛根认为，当前美国的通胀"高于我们2%的目标"，并预计，特朗普政府的关税将在未来几个月推高通 胀。 洛根表示，上月美联储的降息决策为防范劳动力市场急剧恶化提供了适当的保险。媒体指出，洛根在讲 话中暗示，她可能不会支持美联储本月末的FOMC会议再次降息。洛根说，目前的货币政策"看起来并 未超过适度限制性"，鉴于美联储仍需抑制通胀，这种政策立场是合适的。 洛根的表态强化了美联储内部对降息步伐存在分歧的预期，并可能影响市场对年内进一步宽松政策的定 价。 实现通胀目标可能需要劳动力市场进一步放缓 洛根讲话前两天，她刚刚阐述了个人立场，提到达到通胀目标需要付出更大的代价。 本 ...

Joining us this morning is Dan Niles, founder, portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management. What a morning to have you, Dan. Good to see you. >> Good to see you, too, Carl.>> Sounds like you think this one shutdown. I mean, uh, could last longer than the one in 18. >> Yeah, but it really doesn't matter, Carl.You go back and you look at the one in 18 and during the entire tenure of that shutdown, as I wrote about, the S&P was up 10%. So, I think everybody knows this is going to get ultimately resolved. ...

Group 1 - In September, U.S. employers announced layoffs of 54,064, a decrease of 37% from August and a 26% drop from the same month last year [1] - Year-to-date layoffs reached 946,426, the highest since the pandemic in 2020, and the fifth highest in the company's 36-year history [1] - Year-to-date layoffs increased by 55% compared to the same period last year and are 24% higher than the total for 2024 [1] Group 2 - The services sector announced the most layoffs in September, totaling 6,290, a significant rise from 1,862 in August and 2,996 in September 2024 [1] - Year-to-date layoffs in the services sector reached 61,590, reflecting a 64% increase year-on-year [1] - The energy sector reported 5,807 layoffs in September, bringing the year-to-date total to 14,811 [1] Group 3 - Major reasons for layoffs include DOGE behavior, market and economic conditions, and technological updates, with 293,753 layoffs attributed to DOGE behavior and 208,227 to market conditions [2] - Employers plan to add 204,939 new positions this year, a 58% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to fewer seasonal hiring plans [2] - The number of seasonal hiring plans tracked last month was 100,800, significantly lower than 401,850 at the beginning of October 2024 [2]

不出所料，美国联邦政府宣布"停摆"。 因两党在医保相关福利等方面的分歧，美国会参议院9月30日未能在政府资金耗尽前通过新的临时拨款法案。美东时间10月1日零时起，美国联邦政府时隔近 七年再次"停摆"。 美国政府"关门"，进一步加剧经济压力 美国国会预算办公室估计，政府停摆期间，每天可能有大约75万联邦雇员被迫休假。 美国副总统万斯警告称，如果联邦政府"停摆"持续时间较长，可能会引发裁员。白宫发言人莱维特声称，联邦政府裁员很可能发生。 美国联邦政府"停摆"的消息引发全球舆论的热议。有趣的是，有网友翻出了特朗普14年前接受采访的"打脸"视频——在视频中，特朗普直言，"政府停摆有 人觉得怪民主党，有人觉得怪共和党，但我认为被指责的人应该是总统。" 虽然在美国,"驴象之争"不断上演，政府关门也不是什么新鲜戏码。 但不少人担忧，这次停摆将比往常更持久，从而加重本已脆弱的经济压力。 这也导致昨日出炉的"小非农"就业报告备受市场关注。 当地时间10月1日，美国9月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅。该数据低于所有经济学家的预估区间，也进一步放大了经济降温的信 号。 ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查德森表 ...

美国政府自10月1日起停摆，两党并未在最后一刻达成协议。 根据高盛测算，如果出现停摆，可能导致约40%联邦雇员（约90万人）强制休假，并且所有联邦雇 员的薪资将在资金恢复之前延迟发放。 然而，美股在当日并未受到影响， 反而有所反弹，人工智能（AI）设备概念股大涨，英特尔、 Vertiv大涨超7%，标普500指数当日突破6700点大关，涨0.34%，道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克指数 分别涨0.09%和0.42%。即使在季节性糟糕的9月，美股也走出不俗表现，季节性向来不错的10月 备受瞩目。 多位资深美股交易员对第一财经表示，停摆的总体财政影响较小，以往的政府全面停摆通常仅持续数 日，但需要提醒的是，若美国政府陷入停摆，包括非农就业数据（本周五）在内的经济数据或被推迟 发布，恐引发市场的混乱。不过，当前市场仍沉浸在降息、经济数据尚可、AI狂潮持续的积极气氛 中，多家投行对标普500给出了超7000点的目标价。 2025.10. 02 本文字数：2686，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 韦薇 政府停摆影响几何 此前，美国国会仍未通过临时拨款法案，当时各大机构就提及，这意味着美国政府新财年（10月1日 开始）关门 ...

Market Performance and Government Shutdown - The market is not expected to be significantly affected by the government shutdown, with historical trends indicating that the S&P 500 tends to perform better in the following 12 months after such events [2][3] - Current market movements show an upward trend despite the shutdown [3] Jobs Report and Federal Reserve Actions - There is a belief that the upcoming jobs report will show weaker results, which could pressure the overall US economy [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meetings, as the market is pricing in these cuts for October and December [6][8] AI Infrastructure Spending - The market is expected to benefit from AI infrastructure spending, with a positive outlook for the year due to this and the anticipated rate cuts [10][11] - Concerns about potential overvaluation of AI-driven companies may arise in 2026, but currently, there is optimism about staying invested [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Companies like Apple and Amazon are highlighted as strong investment opportunities, particularly in the context of AI [13][14] - Coreweave is identified as a momentum trade within the AI sector, benefiting from its role in data centers [16][17] - Gold (GLD) is recommended as a strong investment due to increased demand amid economic uncertainty [18] - Royal Caribbean is favored in a lower rate environment, while Tesla is suggested as a potential buy if there is a significant pullback [19][20]

Group 1: Tariff Impacts on Industries - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals has raised concerns among global pharmaceutical companies, particularly as Pfizer received a three-year exemption, leading to questions about preferential treatment [1] - The new tariffs on heavy trucks (25%), kitchen cabinets (50%), and furniture (30%) are expected to significantly increase costs for American consumers, with some estimates suggesting that home renovation costs could rise by 30% due to the tariffs on imported cabinets [2][3] - The service industry, particularly Hollywood, is facing unprecedented challenges with a proposed 100% tariff on films, which could drastically reduce box office revenues and increase ticket prices [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Adjustments - Pharmaceutical companies are reacting to the tariff situation, with executives from Merck and Johnson & Johnson frequently visiting Washington to discuss their concerns over the tariff exemptions granted to Pfizer [3][5] - The furniture market is experiencing turmoil, with manufacturers in Vietnam and China recalculating costs due to the new tariffs, and some retailers adjusting prices to reflect the anticipated increases [4][5] - The wood market is also affected, with Canadian softwood lumber producers facing additional tariffs, leading to production cuts and increased prices for American builders [3][6] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex situation where tariffs could push inflation higher, yet current inflation pressures are reported to be lower than expected, complicating monetary policy decisions [3][4] - Fed officials are divided on the need for further rate cuts, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach while others express concerns about the fragile labor market [2][5] - The Fed's upcoming meetings are set against the backdrop of new tariffs, with potential implications for employment and inflation forecasts [6]

本月早些时候，美联储将基准利率目标区间下调了25个基点，至4%至4.25%之间，并预计在年底前逐步降息。该央行表示，降息旨在降低就业市场 不断上升的风险，同时仍将货币政策维持在有助于降低通胀压力的水平。 美联储官员在货币政策下一步走向的问题上存在分歧 。柯林斯在采访前的一次演讲中表示，她支持9月份的宽松政策，如果数据支持，她对进一步降 息持开放态度。 来源|财联社 美国波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯周二表示，她对货币政策的展望与央行最新预估中显示的渐进式宽松路径一致。 她认为大幅降息存在风险 。 作为今年联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的票委，柯林斯在接受采访时表示， 避免快速降息的原因在于通胀构成的持续威胁，即使在就业市场出现疲 软迹象的情况下也是如此 。 "我们必须平衡通胀方面的风险，"柯林斯称。"劳动力市场方面是否存在风险？是的，我认为我们所看到的疲软就是证据，"但在制定利率政策时，这 两个因素都需要加以权衡。 柯林斯在采访中还指出，通胀的许多方面都如官员们所希望的那样有所缓和，但特朗普政府的关税推高了关键价格，目前尚不清楚这将如何影响价格 压力。她还警告称，在经历了数年持续的高通胀之后，公众的预期仍有可能转 ...

Core Insights - The government shutdown is expected to prevent the release of the monthly employment report on Friday, which is crucial for investors and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor has an emergency plan stating that economic data will not be released as scheduled if the government is shut down [1] - A spokesperson from the Department of Labor confirmed that the report on weekly initial jobless claims, scheduled for Thursday, will also not be published [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen for four consecutive days, reaching a historic high of $3,875.53 per ounce, driven by traders preparing for a potential U.S. government shutdown, which may increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 47%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [1] - Central bank purchases and increased holdings in gold ETFs following the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts have supported the rise in gold prices [1] - September saw the highest monthly inflow into gold ETFs in three years, according to Bloomberg data [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Commentary - Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated that further rate cuts may be appropriate this year due to a weak labor market, while cautioning about persistent inflation risks [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson warned of the dual pressures of a cooling labor market and rising inflation, complicating the economic outlook [1] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - As of the report, spot gold prices increased by 0.3% to $3,872.21 per ounce, following a 0.7% rise on Tuesday [1] - Silver prices rose by 1.7% to $47.4317 per ounce after a previous decline of 0.6% [1] - Both platinum and palladium prices also experienced increases [1]