Core Viewpoint - The aluminum price is experiencing sustained high-level fluctuations, with the average daily price of A00 aluminum at 20,700 yuan/ton as of August 15, remaining stable month-on-month and increasing by 8.89% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Macro Factors - The extension of the tariff suspension period between China and the U.S. for another 90 days has reduced risk aversion sentiment [1] - Weak U.S. employment data suggests an increased probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a more positive market sentiment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is under pressure from seasonal demand, but inventory levels remain low year-on-year [1] - Supply-side fluctuations are limited, while demand-side seasonal pressures persist, with terminal orders being average and maintaining just-in-time procurement [1] - Social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Future attention should be paid to potential adjustments in U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and their impact on market sentiment [1] - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions is crucial, as the market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation in the short term [1] - As demand gradually recovers from the seasonal downturn in September, there is an expectation of a stronger market driven by consumption and inventory reduction [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].

Group 1: Market Overview - The current bull market has seen 3,451 companies surpass last year's high, with 2,424 of them recording over 20% gains this year, indicating a strong market trend [1] - The total market capitalization of 124 secondary industries has increased from 87.17 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 102.45 trillion yuan, a growth of 15.28 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Sector Contributions - The top ten sectors contributing to market capitalization growth include state-owned banks, chemical pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, consumer electronics, securities, communication equipment, automotive parts, components, industrial metals, and general equipment [2][3] - The banking sector (state-owned and joint-stock banks) contributed over 1.68 trillion yuan, while the medical sector (chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and devices) contributed approximately 1.44 trillion yuan, making them key drivers of the bull market [3] Group 3: Emotional Triggers - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a ten-year high, with significant resistance expected in the 3,700-3,750 point range due to historical sell-offs [5][7] - Recent news about a 1.1 trillion yuan decrease in household deposits and a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank financial institution deposits has sparked speculation about capital moving into the stock market, although this conclusion may be premature [7][8] Group 4: Future Market Divergence Points - The expiration of the "temporary suspension window" for US-China tariffs may introduce new market volatility, as recent negotiations have led to a 90-day delay in implementing tariffs [9] - The upcoming IPO of Yushu Technology, valued at 12 billion yuan, is expected to attract significant investment, with estimated frozen funds ranging from 35 billion to 50 billion yuan [10]

Group 1: Consumer Loan Subsidy Policy - The central government has introduced a subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and service industry loans, referred to as "national subsidy" in the consumer loan sector [2][3] - The subsidy rate is set at 1 percentage point for both personal consumer loans and service industry loans, aimed at reducing credit costs for residents and businesses [2][3] - The policy targets consumption in key areas such as home appliances, automobiles, education, and healthcare, with specific conditions for loans to service industry entities [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, both showing a decline compared to June [4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to the first half of the year [4] - The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted external challenges such as trade protectionism and extreme weather affecting economic performance [4] Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - As of the end of July, the total social financing scale reached 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [5] - The increase in bond financing has significantly contributed to the growth of social financing, with government bond net financing up by 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [5] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [5][6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3700-point mark, reaching a high of 3704.77 points, marking a significant recovery in the A-share market [7] - The number of new stock accounts opened in July surged by 71% year-on-year, reflecting increased investor enthusiasm [7] - Analysts suggest that the upward momentum in the stock market is supported by clear policy backing and the influx of new capital [7] Group 5: Trade Relations - The U.S. and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, while retaining 10% tariffs on certain goods [8] - This agreement follows a series of trade talks aimed at reducing tensions and enhancing cooperation between the two nations [8] - The ongoing discussions indicate a willingness to engage in dialogue to resolve trade issues, although challenges remain [8] Group 6: Healthcare Policy - The National Healthcare Security Administration has published a list of drugs that passed the preliminary review for inclusion in the national medical insurance and commercial insurance innovation drug directories [9] - A total of 534 drugs were approved for the basic medical insurance directory, while 121 drugs were approved for the commercial insurance innovation directory [9][10] - The introduction of the commercial insurance innovation drug directory aims to support high-value innovative drugs and facilitate their market entry [10] Group 7: Taxation Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have released a draft for public consultation regarding the implementation of the Value-Added Tax Law, set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [11][12] - The draft aims to clarify regulations and enhance the operability of the tax system, although expectations for loan interest to be tax-deductible were not met [11][12] - The implementation of the VAT law is seen as a crucial step in establishing a comprehensive legal framework for taxation in China [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pessimistic sentiment has slightly recovered, with the main contract experiencing wide - range fluctuations. Given the large recent volatility, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. In the context of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 SCFIS, NCFI and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period. On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period. Also on August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The eurozone's July services PMI preliminary value reached 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The eurozone's July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than June's 0.2 and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022. In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The US July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3][4]. 3.3 Trade and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.4 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 32,100 lots, and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day. The market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the possible stabilization of market freight rates, the long - short game is intense, and the market fluctuates widely. Except for the main contract, other contracts have risen. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - takers, a light - position long attempt can be made around 1300 for the 2510 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines temporarily or make a light - position attempt. - **Long - term strategy**: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. 3.6 Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - and down limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. 3.7 Shipping Industry Forecast - After a 6% growth in global container shipping volume in 2024, it is expected to grow by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025 after scrapping 100,000 TEU of capacity each year in 2023 and 2024. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 3.1 million TEU in 2024, 1.8 million TEU in 2025, and 1.6 million TEU in 2026. Currently, there are 9.3 million TEU of ship orders globally, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, higher than 27% in 2024 [5].

周二，热门中概股盘中走强，腾讯音乐(TME.US)涨超12%，奇富科技(QFIN.US)涨超6%，BOSS直聘 (BZ.US)、京东(JD.US)、网易(NTES.US)涨超2%。消息面上，今早，中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明 发布，双方同意：自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天，同时保留按该行政令规定对这些 商品加征的剩余10%的关税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese concept stocks experienced a significant increase in trading, with Tencent Music rising over 12% and Qifu Technology increasing over 6% following the announcement of a joint statement from the US-China Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tencent Music (TME.US) saw a rise of over 12% [1] - Qifu Technology (QFIN.US) increased by over 6% [1] - Other notable stocks included BOSS Zhipin (BZ.US), JD.com (JD.US), and NetEase (NTES.US), each rising by over 2% [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Announcement - A joint statement from the US-China Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks was released, indicating that from August 12, 2025, the implementation of a 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days [1] - The statement also mentioned that the remaining 10% tariffs on these goods will still be subject to the provisions of the existing executive order [1]

原油方面：昨日晚间（8月11日），乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，与莫迪讨论了对俄罗斯石油的制裁问 题，我们同意计划于9月在联合国大会上举行会晤并制定互访计划。据相关媒体报道，15日俄美在阿拉 斯加会谈结束后，普京将会邀请特朗普来俄罗斯参加下一轮会谈。此消息表明，俄美之间的谈判仍有诸 多不确定因素，但前景依旧向好。供应端来看，OPEC+已经确定在9月继续维持54.8万桶增产力度，且9 月将提前完成220万桶的原定增产计划。需求端来看，欧美夏季出行高峰还在继续，季节性利好因素仍 在，延缓了油价下跌速度。叠加中美关税顺利延期，减少了利空压力，短期内油价可能出现短暂反弹。 8月12日市场速览 ：1、中美关税顺利延期90日。2、特朗普在社交媒体上高调宣布，黄金不会被征收关 税。3、特朗普团队将鲍曼、杰斐逊和洛根纳入美联储主席候选人之列，有望今年秋季宣布美联储主席 人选。 技术面：昨日日线收小阳线，有一定的见底效果。1小时来看，市场仍处在下跌趋势，价格盘整至60日 均线之上，但仍在120均线下方运行，关注未来价格能否反弹，今日多空分水岭在64.50美元一线。 美元指数：据白宫有关人员透露，美国总统特朗普正在考虑让美联储两位副主 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel market showed a mainly oscillating trend this week. The influence of the macro - level has weakened, and the cost support of ferronickel is prominent. The support from nickel ore fundamentals has loosened to some extent. In the new energy sector, the prices are relatively firm. It is expected that nickel will oscillate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will oscillate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [2][4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly. It closed at 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4th, and finally closed at 121,180 yuan/ton after oscillating during the week. The main contract of stainless steel had a similar trend, closing at 12,925 yuan/ton on August 4th and 12,985 yuan/ton at the end of the week [2]. 3.2 Industrial Performance - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel maintained a premium at 123,050 yuan/ton with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,440 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP adjusted to - 1.5%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 13,050 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling dropped to around - 3.07%. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron adjusted to 918.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure nickel on the SHFE was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,212 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 954,000 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,415 tons [3]. 3.3 Core Logic - **Macro and News**: The influence of the macro - level has faded, and the short - term supply - demand logic of fundamentals dominates. Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the US dollar index and non - farm payrolls data affect the market. There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September [4]. - **Supply - Side**: In the Philippines, the main mining areas are in the seasonal high - production period, with stable production and shipping. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has a slight upward shift, and the premium remains at 24. The benchmark prices of downstream products are differentiated [4]. - **New Energy**: In the long - term, the development of solid - state batteries in the new energy sector meets expectations and is moderately bullish. In the short - term, prices are firm, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment [4]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel has been strongly correcting this week, approaching the 122,000 - yuan level at the beginning of the year. The supply side has a strong willingness to hold prices, and traders generally expect prices to rise and replenish stocks in advance, while downstream steel mills are still waiting and watching [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated strongly this week, and the inventory has decreased in recent weeks. The spot market has tried to increase prices, but the acceptance of high - price resources is limited, and the trading volume has not improved significantly. Some steel mills may increase production in August, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand continues [4]. 3.4 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 37.88%, and the open interest decreased by 17.3% [5][6]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,985 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 29.10%, and the open interest decreased by 18.62% [7]. - **Nickel Spot Price**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel all decreased by 200 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.16% [8]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,086 tons to 40,572 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,020 tons to 212,232 tons, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 954 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,415 tons [9].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from government bonds starting August 8, which may increase issuance pressure on government bonds[1] - The attractiveness of interest rate bonds is expected to decrease, potentially driving institutional funds towards risk assets[1] - Short-term interest rates may decline due to the increased value of existing bonds, while medium to long-term rates will depend on economic fundamentals and policy direction[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The weighted average interest rate for new commercial loans in Q2 was reported at 3.09%[2] Group 3: International Trade and Tariffs - The US has implemented a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products effective August 1, impacting market dynamics[2] - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%[2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are approximately 45%[2] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of liquidity and changes in monetary policy that could affect investment behavior[3]