12月15日，人民币对美元汇率走强，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币于盘中升破7.05，在岸、离岸人民币汇率双双达到去年10月中旬以来的高点。 记者注意到，11月下旬以来，美元指数走软，人民币汇率逐步升高，目前离岸人民币、在岸人民币汇率均在7.05附近运行。12月15日银行间外汇市场人民币 汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0656元，下调18个基点。 对于人民币升值是否与美联储降息后中美利差收窄有关，王青对记者指出，12月以来10年期美债收益率上升17个基点，而10年期国债收益率保持稳定，中美 利差"倒挂"幅度反而有所扩大。这样来看，近期人民币对美元升值，与中美利差走势关系不大。 宏观经济是汇率基本盘。12月15日上午，国家统计局发布的数据显示，11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，全国服务业生产指数同比增长 4.2%，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%，国民经济延续稳中有进发展态势。 人民币汇率持续走强 数据显示，15日午后，离岸人民币对美元汇率拉升，最高至7.0460，一举突破7.05，并创14个月新高。 记者注意到，最新一轮较大幅度升值始于11月21日，期间人民币对美元汇率从 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货国债年报 短端宽松托底 长端博弈政策预期 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 20251215 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 2025年货币政策基调延续"适度宽松" ，但更强调精准施策与预期管理，货币政策从总量刺激转向结构性支持与存量效能 释放，重点支持科技创新、普惠小微与消费领域，同时重申防范资金空转与汇率超调 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese Yuan (RMB) exchange rate, particularly its movement around the psychological level of "7" against the US Dollar (USD) [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The RMB's effective return to the "6" range requires four core conditions: robust domestic economic fundamentals, a structurally weak US Dollar index, sustained net inflows of cross-border capital, and stable, flexible policy adjustments [1][6][13]. - The probability of the RMB breaking "7" in 2026 is considered feasible due to the narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential, the recovery of domestic asset attractiveness, and significant changes in the international balance of payments [1][11][12][13]. - Historical instances of the RMB breaking "7" and returning to "6" occurred between 2019 and 2022, lasting 3 to 5 months, indicating resilience and self-regulation in the foreign exchange market [5][7]. - The current conditions for the RMB to effectively break "7" include a narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential, increased attractiveness of domestic assets, diversification of export structures, and policy guidance forming a positive feedback loop [13]. Important but Overlooked Content - The RMB has remained above "7" due to weak domestic economic recovery post-pandemic and a significant inversion of the China-US interest rate differential, leading to depreciation pressures [10]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the US midterm elections and fluctuating China-US trade relations, could impact the RMB's exchange rate trajectory in 2026 [14]. - The anticipated RMB appreciation in the second half of 2025 is driven by systemic factors rather than short-term market sentiment, suggesting a sustainable upward trend [11][12]. - The forecast for 2026 indicates a likely range of 7.0 to 7.25 for the USD/RMB exchange rate, with potential for a temporary break below "7" but not a sustainable break unless economic conditions improve significantly [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation gap, a narrowing Sino-US interest rate gap favorable to the RMB, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. It is predicted that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.05 - 7.10. If the US core data is significantly weaker than expected or China's external demand continues to improve, the probability of a short-term upward movement of the RMB will increase, but the probability of breaking through 7.0 in the short term is relatively small [32][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity, Price, and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the new exchange USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and Sino-US interest rate differentials in different time periods [7]. Policy Observation - The adjustment direction of the counter-cyclical factor has returned to above 0% from negative. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Interest Rate Cuts and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 908.5 billion on December 3rd (remaining at a high level), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (-123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non-US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [16]. Macro - Federal Reserve Voting Seats - Stephen Milan holds a temporary seat, and the candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman will be determined before Christmas on December 25th. Raphael Bostic will retire early in February 2026, and the candidate is yet to be determined. The Supreme Court will rule in January 2026 on whether Trump has the right to dismiss Lisa Cook. The Federal Reserve passed the December interest rate decision with a 9:3 vote, cutting the federal funds rate by 25 bp to 3.50% - 3.75% [18]. Macro - Federal Reserve Chairman Candidates - The core competition is between Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett. Currently, market probabilities show that Hassett is leading, but Trump highly trusts Raphael Bostic. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Federal Reserve losing its independence," which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it is expected to trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Federal Reserve losing its independence," which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [20]. Core Charts - US Economy - The government has reopened, and attention should be paid to the impact on the economy during the shutdown period. In November, the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, inflation data is awaited, and the economic outlook has been revised upwards. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in October increased slightly [22]. Economy - US November PMI - In the manufacturing sector, new orders, employment, and delivery made negative contributions, while prices and output made positive contributions. In the service sector, prices made a positive contribution, while employment and imports made negative contributions [23]. Macro - Chinese Economy - There is a structural differentiation in the economy. Exports and imports rebounded in November. The reduction in working days in October dragged down the data for that month, and there is an expected slight rebound in November. The December Politburo meeting shows a swing in policy expectations [26]. Macro - November Export Rebound - The characteristics of re - exports continue. Exports to the US decreased by 28.58% (previous value: -25.17%), while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa were 8.17%, 7.97%, and 5.4% respectively (previous values: 10.96%, 14.3%, and 23.3% respectively). Most sub - items declined, but rare earths, electromechanical products, and automobiles still showed resilience. The market has a consistent optimistic expectation for exports, and attention should be paid to the impact risk if there is an unexpected downward revision [28]. 12 - month Politburo's Task Deployment for 2026 - There are changes in the task deployment for 2026 compared to 2025, including adjustments in the focus on domestic demand, science and technology/industry, reform, opening - up, risk prevention, and other aspects [30]. Comparison of Politburo Meetings - There are differences in the judgment of the economic situation, overall economic work requirements, macro - policy tones, consumption and investment, risk prevention focuses, and other aspects between the July 30, 2025 Politburo meeting and the December 8, 2025 Politburo meeting [31]. Macro - 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there are important time points such as the determination of the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, OPEC and FOMC meetings, the release of the government work report, the National People's Congress, the expiration of Powell's term, and the US mid - term elections, which will have an impact on the economy and policies [38].

Group 1: Core Insights - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has shown a continuous appreciation against the US Dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0753, marking a rise of 20 basis points from the previous day, indicating positive market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0638, appreciating by 55 points, with a trading volume exceeding 28.7 billion USD, reflecting increased market activity [1] - The offshore RMB also appreciated, closing at 7.0622, with the spread between onshore and offshore rates narrowing to 16 basis points, reducing opportunities for cross-border arbitrage [1] Group 2: Yearly Review - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, initially declining to 7.35 due to escalated US tariff strategies, but began to appreciate from October, with a cumulative increase of over 3.5% in the second half of the year [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 99.2, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating improved stability against a basket of currencies [3] Group 3: Driving Factors - Three main factors contribute to the strong performance of the RMB: 1. Decreasing inflation in the US, with a high probability (87.6%) of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December, which could reduce depreciation pressure on the RMB [4] 2. Improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, with a narrowing decline in PPI, a return of manufacturing PMI to expansion, and a 3.8% month-on-month increase in exports [4] 3. Enhanced policy tools, including improved counter-cyclical adjustments and expanded pilot programs for cross-border trade settlements in local currencies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a strong oscillation towards the end of the year, with a potential fluctuation center moving to between 7.05 and 7.10 [8] - The long-term outlook for the RMB remains optimistic, contingent on the effectiveness of domestic growth strategies and the pace of US monetary policy adjustments [8]

同时对A股和港股的创新药板块利好，因海外投融资活动增加便于国内创新药企业拓展海外市场。 视频制作/实习生 吕辰聪 文/北京青年报记者 朱开云 据报道，美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间降至 3.5%至3.75%，符合市场预期。 这是美联储货币政策会议自9月以来连续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降 息。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，此次降息会进一步收窄中美利差，人民币有望保持强势，国内货币政 策将获得更多操作空间，可把握窗口期下调政策利率、降低实体经济融资成本。 摩根士丹利基金此前分析，美联储降息周期重启利于海外资金回流A股及港股市场。 编辑/李涛 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘佳 北京报道 美联储2025年宽松周期持续深化，年内已累计完成75个基点降息。 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储结束了本年度最后一次议息会议，如期宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调25个基点。至此年内第三次降息落地，利率最终定格于3.5%—3.75% 区间。 在多位受访专家看来，美联储此次25个基点的降息幅度虽符合市场普遍预期，但决策背后的内部分歧尤 为值得关注。当天参加表决的12名美联储官员中，有3人投票反对，这是2019年9月以来议息会议反对票 数量最多的一次，凸显了美联储内部对通胀和就业风险平衡的政策博弈。会后公布的利率点阵图也显 示，政策制定者维持2026年再降息一次的预期，预计到明年年底通胀率将放缓至2.4%左右。 值得注意的是，在美联储此次降息前夕，中央政治局会议已为2026年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增 效"的总基调，并明确将继续实施"更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，为国内经济发展和政 策调整预留出充足空间，彰显出我国宏观调控的战略定力。 上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，我国货币政策仍坚 持"以我为 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth cut since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee stated that while U.S. economic activity is expanding moderately, job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate rose in September, and inflation remains elevated, indicating a high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the federal funds rate is now within a neutral range and that further observations of economic conditions are warranted, attributing inflation above the Fed's target mainly to tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that the resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle will facilitate the return of overseas funds to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, benefiting the innovative pharmaceutical sector as increased overseas investment activities will aid domestic companies in expanding into international markets [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has implemented two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% [1][3] - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% probability of a further 25 basis point cut in December, with major investment banks predicting a "hawkish cut" approach [4][5] - The recent labor market data shows a significant decline in private sector employment, indicating structural weaknesses, while inflation pressures are easing [4][5] Group 2 - The easing of external monetary policy constraints will provide China with more operational space for its monetary policy, although the core principle of "taking the lead" will remain unchanged [6][7] - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential due to the Fed's rate cuts is expected to support the Chinese yuan, with potential for further policy rate reductions in China [6][7] - The impact of the Fed's rate cuts on global markets will vary, with potential benefits for equity markets and risks for bond markets due to internal factors [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is approaching a critical policy window as the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third consecutive cut due to a weak U.S. labor market [1][3]. Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has already implemented two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%—4.00% [1][3]. - Market expectations for a third rate cut are high, with a nearly 90% probability predicted by the CME FedWatch Tool [3][4]. - The concept of "hawkish rate cuts" suggests that while the Fed will lower rates, it will signal a higher threshold for future cuts to prevent excessive market optimism [4]. Economic Indicators - Recent data shows a surprising decrease of 32,000 in U.S. private sector employment for November, the largest drop since March 2023, indicating structural weakness in the labor market [4]. - Inflation pressures are easing, with the core PCE price index rising by 2.8% year-on-year in September, suggesting manageable production-side inflation [4]. Implications for China - The Fed's rate cuts are expected to alleviate monetary policy pressures on major global economies, providing China with more room for monetary policy adjustments [6][7]. - The narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential could support a stronger RMB, allowing for potential policy rate reductions in China to lower financing costs for the real economy [7][8]. Market Reactions - The anticipated Fed rate cuts are likely to influence global equity, currency, and bond markets, with the dollar index expected to weaken, benefiting non-U.S. currencies [9][11]. - The Chinese stock market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3900.50 points, reflecting a slight decline [10]. - Bond markets are experiencing varied impacts, with domestic bond yields influenced by both Fed policies and internal supply pressures [11].