降息降准终于来了。但为什么是在这个时候呢？ 今年以来，国家多次提及降息降准，却一直未落地，引发诸多猜测。此前我们曾提到，中美之间的降息节奏，关键要看美国美联储的动作。若美联储不降 息，我国率先降息，会拉大中美利差，进而导致资金外流。当前市场流动性严重不足，若降息节奏过快，尤其在美国之前降息，即便释放流动性，也可能无 法弥补资金出逃造成的缺口。 我国提前降准降息，主要基于以下原因：其一，当前市场流动性不足，已出现通缩迹象，必须释放流动性；其二，银行储蓄过高，今年一季度银行居民存款 增加 9 万多亿。自 2022 年 3 月美国降息后，我国居民存款持续上涨，目前人均居民存款超 11 万，总计达 140 多万亿。大量资金未进入市场流通，导致 M1 与 M2 的剪刀差不断扩大，反映出市场活力不足。尽管上个月数据显示剪刀差正在缩小，但此时降准降息，正是推动资金从 "死钱" 变为 "活钱"，促进市场 流通、提升经济活跃度的好时机。 当前，美债收益率不断上涨，我国国债收益率则呈下降趋势，降息降准后，我国国债收益率可能进一步下降，中美利差会进一步拉大。但值得注意的是，美 债利率上涨是因被抛售导致，这意味着资金正在撤离美国市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by a weaker USD and a thawing in China-US trade relations, with future focus on tariff negotiations and US economic data impacting the USD index [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown a "short-term rapid appreciation," influenced by the weakening of the USD and narrowing China-US interest rate differentials [1] - The relationship between the RMB exchange rate and both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is observed to be vaguely positively correlated, while the exchange rate is strongly correlated with the China-US interest rate differential [1] - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB has contributed to the recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation phase has ended, leading to potential fluctuations [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis Insights - From a technical perspective, the RMB exchange rate is currently in a phase of oscillation after the rapid appreciation, which may cause disturbances in market trends [1] - The analysis indicates that if the RMB rebounds to certain levels, it may signal further downward movement, while a return to specific thresholds could indicate reduced downward space [1][23] - The PCR indicator, which tracks short-term market timing, has shown a slight increase, indicating a high-risk zone, suggesting that if it remains elevated, a market adjustment may be imminent [1]

Core Viewpoints - The article analyzes the current real exchange rate of the RMB from the perspectives of export demand, capital flow, and exchange rate determination theory, concluding that the RMB is currently reasonably valued and may experience short-term fluctuations within a specific range [1][5]. Group 1: Export and Trade Demand - The actual effective exchange rate indicates that the RMB has released downward pressure, supported by strong export performance and trade surpluses, with current account surpluses projected at $253 billion for 2023 and $422 billion for 2024 [2]. - Since 2024, the RMB has depreciated less against the USD compared to other non-USD currencies, and the RMB exchange rate index against a basket of currencies shows an upward trend [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Investment Demand - The estimated RMB exchange rate midpoints based on the China-US interest rate differential and risk premium are 7.50 and 7.35, respectively, indicating potential short-term depreciation pressure [3]. - The negative correlation between the China-US interest rate differential and the RMB exchange rate has been high at 93.2% since 2022, suggesting that the equilibrium exchange rate may range from 7.4 to 7.6 [3]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Determination Theory - The BEER (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) model is deemed more effective for estimating the RMB's equilibrium exchange rate, which is projected to be between 7.3 and 7.4, with a central value of 7.35 [4]. - The relative purchasing power parity theory suggests a long-term appreciation potential of the RMB to around 6.8, while absolute purchasing power theory indicates a possible undervaluation of nearly 40% [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain around the equilibrium midpoint of 7.30, with short-term fluctuations anticipated between 7.20 and 7.35, influenced by international balance of payments, market behavior, and sentiment [5]. - Recent manufacturing PMI data indicates a stable economic environment, with the manufacturing sector showing resilience and potential for recovery in PPI readings [6].