Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3306, showing a consolidation trend after profit-taking due to easing trade tensions following U.S. President Trump's tariff policy changes [1][2]. - Short-term outlook suggests gold prices may remain within the range of $3260 to $3380, with potential for a breakout above $3500 if the Federal Reserve signals stronger rate cuts or if trade tensions escalate again [1][2]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3260 and $3268, with a bullish outlook maintained as long as these levels hold [4]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have dipped to $63.16, reflecting market concerns over potential global economic recession due to unpredictable tariff strategies from the U.S. [5][6]. - The oil market is facing downward pressure from rising inventories and potential OPEC+ production increases, with a bearish sentiment prevailing unless trade tensions ease or demand shows signs of recovery [5][6]. - Short-term trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $60.0 to $61.0 and support levels at $57.0 to $56.0 [6].

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation is overall easing, and global oil demand is declining, while OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, leading to a higher probability of a price reduction in the next round of refined oil price adjustments [1][4] - Domestic refined oil prices have undergone nine rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "three increases, four decreases, and two stasis," resulting in a year-to-date decrease of 425 yuan/ton for gasoline and 410 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [2] - The recent price adjustment coincides with the "May Day" holiday, allowing private car owners to travel at lower fuel costs [2] Group 2 - During the current pricing cycle, the international oil price change rate has been narrowing, with the average price of reference crude oil at 64.82 yuan/barrel and a change rate of 0.65% as of April 30 [4] - Despite some upward pressure on international oil prices due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian liquefied petroleum gas and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies are overshadowing global economic growth and fuel demand prospects [4] - The next price adjustment window will open on May 19, with expectations of a price reduction due to the overall easing of geopolitical tensions and OPEC+'s stance on increasing production [4]

智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内第二次搁浅。 4月30，国家发改委发布消息称，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，本次国内汽、柴油 价格（标准品）不作调整。相关价格联动及补贴政策按现行规定执行。价格执行时间自今日24时起。 本轮是2025年第九次调价，也是年内的第二次搁浅。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈现"三涨四跌两搁浅"的格 局。 据卓创资讯测算，4月29日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率0.66%，预计汽柴油上调30元/吨，因本周期内原油 变化率对应的汽柴油零售限价调整幅度不足50元/吨，不满足50元/吨的调价必要条件。 本计价周期以来，国际原油价格走势震荡下行，国内测算的原油变化率正值区间不断回落。 图片来源：隆众资 讯 下一轮成品油价存在下调概率。 隆众资讯表示，展望后市，全球经济面临衰退风险，市场对需求前景仍不乐观，且美国与伊朗谈判进展顺利、俄乌和谈 也出现转机，地缘局势整体趋于缓和。此外，欧佩克+维持增产立场，也打压业者心态。整体来看，预计下一轮成品油 调价下调的概率较大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠分析认为，未来美联储大概率维持高利率，且美国贸易政 ...

数据显示，4月29日上海0#锌锭现货价格报价22970.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（22550.00元/吨）升 水420.00元/吨。 （4月29日）今日全国锌价格一览表 期货市场上看，4月29日收盘，沪锌期货主力合约报22550.00元/吨，涨幅0.16%，最高触及22610.00元/ 吨，最低下探22465.00元/吨，日内成交量达103421手。 分析观点： 广州期货研报：美方对中方的对等关税征收态度发生松动，表示将降低关税或实行关税分级政策，中方 对待美方滥收关税行为表示坚决抵制，中美市场近期公布经济数据表现超预期，交投市场对全球经济衰 退担忧减弱，市场交易情绪回暖。秘鲁ANTA锌矿遭遇事故影响生产，海内外TC价格保持，矿端远期有 较大增量预期，但从部分地区报的TC水平上看，矿端暂未进入供应宽松周期，国内精炼锌供应相对紧 张，3月冶炼开工环比小幅走增但同比数据为负，现货某高端牌号缺货，整体市场报出较高升水，周度 社库出现小幅累増，下游需求上看，镀锌开工较好，氧化锌、锌合金开工情况平平。锌价供应未有明显 超预期增量，需求旺季缓慢修复，在远期供应过剩的压力之下，短期价格反弹但上方空间有限， | 规格 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, providing market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each [5][8][10]. - Overall, the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships, with different commodities showing different trends and investment opportunities [6][8][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. The government plans to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - Although external environment is favorable for bond futures, current bond yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risk increases, domestic asset valuations are low and policies have hedging space [8]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests waiting for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The US consumer confidence index and inflation expectations have certain impacts [10]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and tariff environment are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for new long - entry opportunities [10][11]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. Valuations are low, and there are signs of technical support. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, prices slightly adjusted. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. Valuations are relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand has improved to some extent. There are signs of a technical bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, prices declined. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is gradually improving. It is recommended to consider call options on manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities on silicon iron [18][19]. - **Copper**: Last trading day, prices rose. The cooling of tariff disputes and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June support prices. It is expected that prices will be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [48][49]. - **Tin**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, price fluctuations have intensified. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and demand is good. It is expected that prices will fluctuate, and risk control is needed [50][51]. - **Nickel**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply side has cost support, but demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [52]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Last trading day, prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and costs are expected to decrease. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds [53][55]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated upward. The increase in net long positions of speculators and the increase in the number of oil and gas rigs are noteworthy. The Sino - US negotiation and OPEC's production policy are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [20][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, prices followed crude oil and fluctuated higher. The high - sulfur fuel oil market may enter the peak demand season, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable. Due to the sanctions on Russia, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and costs are stable. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [26][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, prices showed mixed performance. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile [29][30]. - **PVC**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers weakly, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [31][33]. - **Urea**: Last trading day, prices declined. Agricultural demand will weaken seasonally, and new production capacity will be released. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile in the short term [34][35]. - **PX**: Last trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance reduces supply, and downstream demand improves. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [36][37]. - **PTA**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, demand improvement is less than expected, and costs provide support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, inventory removal is difficult, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [39][40]. - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and costs provide limited support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, prices rose. Raw material prices recover, supply increases slightly, and demand improves. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [42]. - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term [43]. - **Glass**: Last trading day, prices declined. Production lines are at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that the market sentiment will be weak [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, prices declined. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, demand from the alumina industry is limited, and the market turns weak again [45]. - **Pulp**: Last trading day, prices declined slightly. Inventory accumulates, downstream start - up rates vary, and the market is weak and volatile [46]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. Argentine weather is favorable for soybean harvesting, and domestic soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call options on soybean oil at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Domestic imports increase, and inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [58][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Inventory shows different trends. It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [61][62]. - **Cotton**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated. The spring sowing of Xinjiang cotton is almost completed, and weather is a key factor. Textile exports are affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds in the long - term [63][68]. - **Sugar**: Last trading day, domestic sugar prices rose slightly, and international sugar prices rose significantly. Indian sugar production is lower than expected, and domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to wait and see [70][72]. - **Apple**: Last trading day, prices rose significantly. Inventory is low, consumption is good, and spot prices are strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [74][75]. - **Pig**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, consumption is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [76][78]. - **Egg**: Last trading day, prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [79][80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Last trading day, prices rose. Corn supply is still under pressure in the short term, but the bottom is supported. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Log**: Last trading day, prices rose. Log prices decline, inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot market provides weak support for the futures market [84][85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information indicating the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and China's economic recovery potential, it is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on China's equity market. After event shocks, China's economy and assets will still operate according to their own laws, and the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. - The long - term value of gold is still promising. It is advisable to temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand fundamentals, valuation, and technical aspects, such as short - term trading, waiting for opportunities, or temporary observation in the face of complex market conditions. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts down 0.40%, 0.17%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The external environment is favorable, but yields are low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 futures主力 contracts were down 0.16%, 0.53%, and 0.04% respectively, while the CSI 1000 futures主力 contract was up 0.65% [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the current domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 784.28, down 5.67%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 8,199, up 0.31% [12]. - **Analysis**: The long - term value of gold is still promising. Temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars, Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of billets, ribbed bars, and hot - rolled coils are in specific ranges [16]. - **Analysis**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but short - term seasonal demand may support prices. The valuation is low, and there is support at the previous low. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder are given [18]. - **Analysis**: The increase in demand and the decrease in supply support prices. The valuation is relatively high in the black series. Investors can focus on buying at low levels and take profit on rebounds [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded sharply [21]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke has improved. The spot price increase is limited. There are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [21]. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.82%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 0.32%. The spot prices are stable [23]. - **Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The supply - demand imbalance is gradually improving. Consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese - silicon and short - covering opportunities for silicon - iron [24]. Crude Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly [25]. - **Analysis**: The macro - level changes are large, and the geopolitical risks are high. The resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly, following crude oil [28]. - **Analysis**: The macro - level changes are large, and the cost of crude oil drives the price up. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, and the trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to temporarily observe [28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract rose 2.96%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was stable [30]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [30][32]. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract and 20 - rubber主力 contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [33][34]. PVC - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract rose 0.60%, and the spot price was basically stable [35]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. The market is expected to be volatile [35]. Urea - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell 0.56%, and the price in Shandong Linyi decreased [38]. - **Analysis**: The agricultural demand is off - season, the new production capacity is released, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak in the short term [38][39]. PX - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509主力 contract rose 2.91%, and the spreads decreased [40]. - **Analysis**: The PX devices are under maintenance, the downstream PTA starts to decline, and the cost support is enhanced. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [40][41]. PTA - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509主力 contract rose 2.51%, and the price in the East China market is given [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply and demand fundamentals have little contradiction, and the external crude oil price strengthens. It is expected to run volatilely and operate following the cost [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 1.27%, and the price in the East China market is given [43]. - **Analysis**: The coal - based devices are under maintenance, the supply is reduced, but the high inventory limits the rebound. It is expected to run at the bottom and operate cautiously [43][45]. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506主力 contract rose 1.94% [46]. - **Analysis**: The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is improved. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [46]. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506主力 contract rose 1.68% [47]. - **Analysis**: The raw material price recovers, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve slightly. It is expected to run with the cost and pay attention to cost changes [47]. Soda Ash - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of soda ash closed at 1373 yuan/ton, up 3.39% [48]. - **Analysis**: The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream procurement is not active. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [49]. Glass - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of glass closed at 1154 yuan/ton, up 2.21% [50]. - **Analysis**: The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the market sentiment is weak due to tariff impacts [50]. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of caustic soda closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 0.65% [51]. - **Analysis**: Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, and the profit improves. The alumina has limited positive drivers, and the market turns weak again [52]. Pulp - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of pulp closed at 5402 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inventory accumulates slightly, the downstream starts vary, and the market is affected by tariff news. It is expected to be volatile at a low level [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力 contract rose 1.14% to 68980 yuan/ton [54]. - **Analysis**: The macro - events affect the market, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to run weakly [54][55]. Copper - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upwards [56]. - **Analysis**: The Sino - US tariffs are expected to be reduced, and the copper price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to take long positions [56][57]. Tin - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin rose 1.11% to 261480 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis**: The tin price fluctuates due to tariffs. The supply and demand factors are intertwined. It is expected to run volatilely, and control risks in the short term [58][59]. Nickel - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell 0.55% to 125120 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs. The supply is tightened, and the cost is supported, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to control risks and observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell significantly, and the spot prices decreased [61]. - **Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract was flat, and the soybean oil main contract rose 1.19%. The spot prices increased [63]. - **Analysis**: The trade concerns ease, the supply is loose, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. Observe for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil [63][64]. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil closed up, and the domestic import volume increased in March [65]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to temporarily observe [67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed rose for the second consecutive day. The domestic import volume of rapeseed oil increased, while that of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in March [68]. - **Analysis**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69]. Cotton - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external cotton rose overnight [70]. - **Analysis**: The tariffs affect the demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds for the far - month contracts [72][73]. Sugar - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly, and the external raw sugar fell slightly [74]. - **Analysis**: The international raw sugar is affected by multiple factors, and the domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to observe [76][77]. Apples - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [78]. - **Analysis**: The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [78][80]. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The national average price of live pigs was flat. The futures主力 contract fell 0.93% [81][82]. - **Analysis**: The group - farmed pigs' planned output in April has limited increase, and the consumption is in the off - season. The spot price may be supported in the short term, and the far - month contracts may be affected by cost expectations [82]. Eggs - **Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas was flat. The cost and profit are in a narrow - range oscillation [83]. - **Analysis**: The supply of eggs is expected to increase in April, and the consumption is in the off - season. Consider the opportunity for reverse spreads [83][84]. Corn - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the corn主力 contract rose 0.35%. The spot prices in the north and south ports are given [85]. - **Analysis**: The domestic corn supply surplus eases, and the demand increases slightly. The short - term supply pressure exists. It is recommended to observe [85][86]. Logs - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of logs closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [87]. - **Analysis**: The tropical cyclone affects the shipment, and the spot price is weak. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate demand is weak [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war between the US and China has a significant impact on the non - ferrous metals market, with macro factors bringing continuous influence. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and tariff impacts [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE copper 05 contract rose 0.16% to 75,970 yuan/ton. Tariff issues initially led to a sharp decline in copper prices and then a rebound. Fundamentally, downstream restocking was active when prices fell, but copper concentrate supply was still tight. Satellite data showed a significant decline in global copper smelting activities in March. The previous tight supply expectation in China may change. In the long - term, tariff impacts may lower market demand and the copper price center may shift down. Next week, SHFE copper will maintain a wide - range and relatively strong oscillation, and interval trading is recommended [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and trading was weak. Sellers tried to maintain prices, while downstream buyers pressed prices and made few purchases [8] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,840 tons to 92,209 tons, and LME copper inventories increased by 4,650 tons to 212,475 tons [18] Aluminum - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE aluminum 06 contract fell 0.61% to 19,595 yuan/ton. Ore supply improved and prices declined. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 4.9 million tons to 86.15 million tons, and inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 3.443 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 35,000 tons to 4.4079 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates decreased, and inventory declined on Monday. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy changes [3] - In the spot market, aluminum prices fell, trading was not good, sellers tried to maintain prices, and downstream demand slightly recovered. In the afternoon, the market turned to a wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was limited [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,524 tons to 101,189 tons, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 825 tons to 439,325 tons [18] Nickel - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel 05 contract rose 1.05% to 124,240 yuan/ton. The US consumer confidence index declined, and tariff policies damaged the global trade environment. Nickel ore costs increased, and supply was affected by rainfall in the Philippines. In March, national refined nickel production increased by 39.12% year - on - year, with an oversupply situation. Nickel iron prices corrected, and the oversupply pattern expanded. In April, 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The market was in the off - season. Sulfuric acid nickel costs increased, but demand was weak. As nickel has fallen close to the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] - In the spot market, nickel prices rose. The ccmn Yangtze River Composite 1 nickel price was 123,400 - 127,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 125,450 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan from the previous day [15] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 237 tons to 25,884 tons, and LME nickel inventories decreased by 1,554 tons to 202,818 tons [18] Tin - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE tin 05 contract fell 0.31% to 258,990 yuan/ton. The upcoming resumption of production in Congo put pressure on prices. In March, domestic refined tin production increased by 7.3% month - on - month. Tin concentrate imports from January to February decreased by 13% year - on - year. Indonesian refined tin exports increased in February. The semiconductor industry was expected to recover. Inventories were at a medium level. It is expected that price fluctuations will increase, and interval operation is recommended, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 05 contract being 240,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [7] - In the spot market, tin prices fell, and trading was limited as merchants mainly waited and saw [16] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 146 tons to 9,670 tons, and LME tin inventories decreased by 245 tons to 2,845 tons [18] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead) Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices fell. Zinc price declines stimulated restocking, and spot premiums strengthened, but trading sentiment was weak, and restocking volumes were limited [12] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts increased by 775 tons to 7,658 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased by 5,275 tons to 112,025 tons [18] Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, with overall flat consumption [13][14] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 58,378 tons, and LME lead inventories increased by 8,225 tons to 265,550 tons [18] Alumina - On April 15, alumina prices in different regions remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market was lightly traded, sellers maintained prices, and downstream buyers mainly pressed prices for rigid - need purchases [10][11]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On April 14, A-share's three major indexes continued to rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.76% to close at 3262.81, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.51% to close at 9884.30, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to close at 1932.91. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.2775 trillion yuan, a decrease of 71.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3759.14, a month-on-month increase of 8.62 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 14, the weighted index of coke rebounded weakly, closing at 1565.7 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 15.9. The weighted index of coking coal was weakly sorted, closing at 958.4 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.8. The implementation of US tariffs has weakened market sentiment, and the decline in coke enterprise inventories has narrowed. There is still a risk of decline in steel exports in the long term. The overall supply of coking coal has increased, but the high port inventory has kept prices under pressure [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by concerns about a global economic recession and a decline in US sugar prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on April 14. Brazilian sugar production in mid - late March decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [1]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains and technical factors, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted on the night of April 14, closing slightly higher. In March, the retail sales of the passenger car market were 1.94 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. Thailand's southern region is expected to have rainstorms from April 14 - 19 [2]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean oscillated on April 14. The US soybean export inspection volume met market expectations. Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 89.09%, and its output increased by 16 million tons year - on - year. Argentina's soybean harvest was delayed due to rainfall. Domestically, the soybean meal futures price oscillated and closed up on April 14. In March, China imported 3.503 million tons of soybeans, and 17.109 million tons from January - March, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. It is expected that the total import of Brazilian soybeans in the second quarter will exceed 30 million tons [2][3]. Live Pigs - On April 14, the live pig futures price first rose and then fell. The market is in the off - season of demand, and the supply is relatively loose. However, some farmers are reluctant to sell, and there is bottom - fishing in the second - fattening market. The cost of feed may rise due to tariffs, but in the medium term, the market is still in a pattern of loose supply and demand [4]. Palm Oil - On April 14, palm oil oscillated slightly at a low level. As of April 11, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [4]. Soybean Oil - The position of the Y2509 contract increased. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil rose. CONAB expects Brazil's soybean output to increase by 13.6% in the 2024/25 season. Brazil's soybean harvest is coming to an end, but rainfall may affect it. Argentina's rainfall is conducive to the harvest. China's recent soybean imports are low, but it is expected to increase in late April [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The position of the OI2505 contract decreased. The spot price in Dongguan rose. The profit of imported rapeseed crushing has narrowed, and the arrival of imported rapeseed will decrease after April [6]. Shanghai Copper - Due to the easing of the global trade situation and the weakening of the US dollar index, combined with the continuous decline of domestic refined copper social inventory, Shanghai copper continued to rebound [6]. Iron Ore - On April 14, the iron ore 2509 contract oscillated and closed up. Last week, the shipping volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased for three consecutive periods, and the port inventory continued to decline. The iron water output has reached a high level, and the follow - up upward space may be limited. The short - term iron ore will oscillate [8]. Asphalt - On April 14, the asphalt 2506 contract oscillated and closed up. Last week, the asphalt refinery's operating rate increased month - on - month but remained at a low level. The shipment volume decreased after three consecutive periods of increase. The overall demand release is limited, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The short - term asphalt will oscillate [8]. Cotton - On the night of April 14, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased. India's cotton output in the 2024/25 season is expected to decline [8]. Logs - On April 14, the log 2507 contract oscillated. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. From January - March, the import volume of logs and sawn timber decreased by 10% year - on - year. The port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term market will oscillate [9]. Steel - On April 14, the rb2510 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3242 yuan/ton. The macro - level is full of news, and the tariff game continues. The demand for rebar in April is not strong, and the project funds are not in place. The inventory is in the seasonal destocking cycle, and the follow - up destocking speed is a key concern [10]. Alumina - On April 14, the ao2505 contract closed at 2830 yuan/ton. The trade war sentiment has eased, and industrial products generally rose on April 14. Alumina rebounded after a previous decline. The supply pattern of alumina is still loose, which may restrict its upward space [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On April 14, the al2505 contract closed at 19,690 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy has entered a short - term calm period, but still needs attention. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has limited growth, and it is in the destocking stage. The downstream is actively purchasing, which supports the aluminum price [11][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable on April 14. The downstream has a high proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied materials, with weak demand for spot purchases. The market is cautious and mostly on the sidelines [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's export data, the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on various industries, and the overall market sentiment regarding trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. It highlights the strong export growth in March and anticipates challenges in the upcoming quarters due to tariff pressures and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5]. Export Data Analysis - China's March exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 3% in the previous month and a drop of 7.6% in the same month last year. This growth is attributed to a low base effect from last year and a rush to export before potential new tariffs are implemented [3][4]. - The export growth is particularly notable in trade with the EU, where exports rose by 9.7%, and with ASEAN countries, which saw a 5.9% increase [4]. Tariff Implications - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Rutnik indicated that new tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronics could be implemented in about a month, which may further impact China's export performance [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the export growth will face significant negative feedback in Q2, estimating a year-on-year decline of 5% to 10% due to the anticipated tariffs [4]. Market Reactions - The A-share market showed a collective increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.76% and significant trading activity in sectors like cross-border e-commerce and consumer goods [7]. - Goldman Sachs has lowered its target for major Chinese stock indices, citing unprecedented levels of U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns over a potential global economic recession [9]. Company Performance - Several companies reported significant expected profit growth for Q1, including Jinjiang Shipping with a projected increase of 182% to 194% year-on-year, and Shenzhou Huachuang with an expected increase of 68% to 100% [10]. - Companies like Jinhe Biological indicated that their products exported to the U.S. are currently subject to a 20% tariff, but they plan to adjust prices to cover costs [10]. Investment Sentiment - The article notes a shift in investment sentiment, with sectors like textiles, coal, and non-ferrous metals gaining traction, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors are experiencing declines [20].

期货热点追踪 特朗普"关税讹诈"引发全球经济衰退恐慌，油价崩盘只是开始？ 相关链接 ...