Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, the decline of PPI widened, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The decline was mainly due to international input factors, seasonal decline in energy demand, and price drops in some raw material industries [1]. - China may reduce the import of American films in response to the US tariff measures [1]. - The industry credit spread showed a slight fluctuation [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Concerns about the impact of tariff conflict escalation on exports. The decline of PPI was affected by international input factors, seasonal energy demand, and raw material industry price trends [1]. - **Service Industry**: China may moderately reduce the import of American films and introduce more excellent films from other countries [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices fluctuated due to tariffs; prices of copper, zinc, and nickel dropped; cement and building material prices continued to fall [2]. - **Midstream**: PTA's operating rate increased, PX's operating rate declined recently, and the operating rates of polyester and urea were at a high level this year. The asphalt operating rate reached a three - year low [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were weaker than the same period. International flight frequencies increased, while domestic flight frequencies decreased compared to the same period [3]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The industry credit spread showed a slight fluctuation. The credit spreads of various industries had different trends, with some showing a decline and others showing an increase or remaining stable [4][47]. 3.4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: The prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, pork, etc. had different year - on - year changes, with some rising and some falling [48]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, silver, etc. mostly declined year - on - year [48]. - **Metals**: The prices of steel products such as rebar, iron ore, and wire rod had different trends, with some showing a slight decline and some remaining stable year - on - year [48]. - **Non - metals**: The prices of natural rubber, glass, etc. had different year - on - year changes [48]. - **Energy**: The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas had different trends, with some rising and some falling year - on - year [48]. - **Chemical Industry**: The prices of PTA, polyethylene, urea, etc. had different year - on - year changes [48]. - **Real Estate**: The cement price index, building material comprehensive index, and concrete price index had different year - on - year trends [48].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the financial attribute of copper is prominent, and its price is highly correlated with trade conflicts. The unexpected US tariff and strong fundamentals have pushed up the copper price. Investors are advised to operate with caution [1]. - In the long - term, the fundamentals of copper remain resilient, with potential supply reduction and increasing demand [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and closed higher today. The "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US initially caused market panic, but the suspension of tariffs on some trading partners for 90 days reversed the stock market trend. Overnight, the London copper price rose, and the Shanghai copper price also increased in the early morning and closed higher after oscillation. Currently, the macro - level noise is high, and the market's trading on tariff policies and economic uncertainties affects the copper market. However, the copper fundamentals are still strong in the long - run [1]. - On the supply side, as of April 3, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 26.26 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.65 cents per pound, showing a further weakening. There are rumors that top Chinese copper smelters propose a 5% - 10% production cut in Q2 2025. In March, the SMM China electrolytic copper output increased by 6.39 million tons month - on - month (a rise of 6.04%) and 12.27% year - on - year. The cumulative output from January to March increased by 27.45 million tons year - on - year (a rise of 9.4%) [1]. - On the demand side, the decline in copper price has boosted the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. In March 2025, the operating rate of Chinese copper foil enterprises was 71.82%, up 4.17 percentage points month - on - month and 11.38 percentage points year - on - year [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, closing at 75,300 yuan per ton. The number of long positions of the top 20 was 1,110,435 lots, an increase of 33,845 lots; the number of short positions was 1,130,619 lots, a decrease of 12,159 lots [3]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 50 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On April 9, 2025, the LME official price was 8,585 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 46 dollars per ton [3]. Supply Side - As of April 3, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 26.26 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.65 cents per pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 89,500 tons, a decrease of 7,900 tons from the previous period. As of April 7, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 123,200 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 211,900 tons, a slight decrease of 1,525 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 111,700 short tons, an increase of 4,518 short tons from the previous period [8].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a narrowing decline compared to the previous month's 0.7%[2] - The core CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from the previous month's 0.1%[2] - Food prices saw a year-on-year increase of -1.4%, improving from -3.3% in the previous month[4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in March, compared to a decline of 2.2% in the previous month[2] - The number of industries experiencing a PPI decline increased to 21 out of 32 in March, up from 17 in the previous month[6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, worsening from the previous month's 0.1%[2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The current recovery momentum for domestic prices is weak, primarily driven by the "old-for-new" policy effects in specific sectors[3] - The trade conflict with the U.S. is expected to exacerbate deflationary pressures on industrial products, impacting corporate profits and consumer confidence[9] - Policy reserves are sufficient, and further macroeconomic adjustments are anticipated to counter external shocks[10]

它们正等待（美国总统特朗普挑起的关税冲突）局势趋于稳定。 墨西哥比索兑美元涨幅收窄至0.4%，暂报20.61比索，北京时间22:06曾刷新日高至20.4713比索。 墨西哥股指维持1.8%的涨幅，持稳于日高51460.75点附近。 墨西哥总统辛鲍姆称，经济部长Ebrard将于4月8日会见美国商务部长卢特尼克。 墨西哥的大多数汽车制造商还不打算变更投资计划。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to the Sino - US tariff conflict having a significant impact on the market, and under the stimulation of news, the current market sentiment is weak. The futures price of palm oil may show a weak bottom - oscillating trend [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On April 7, affected by the intensification of tariff conflicts, BMD Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,182 ringgit/ton, down 3.4%, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low. The continuous palm P2505 contract gapped down on the first trading day after the holiday, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, down 5.39% from the settlement price, with a trading volume of 911,100 lots and an open interest of 291,100 lots. The P2509 contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 596 yuan/ton, the soybean - palm main contract spread was - 1,088 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm main contract spread was 509 yuan/ton [3]. - On April 7, the spot prices of palm oil at various ports were 9,330 - 9,480 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The import profit was - 743.12 yuan/ton, the basis weakened to - 11 yuan/ton, and the soybean - palm spot spread was - 1,360.26 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Market survey data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in March was 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from February, and the inventory may increase to 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February. Attention should be paid to the March supply - demand data released by MPOB this Wednesday. According to SPPOMA data, due to the reduction of labor during the Eid al - Fitr, the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first five days of April decreased by 35.47% month - on - month. Recently, the US tariff system has intensified, imposing an additional 24% and 32% tariffs on palm oil products from Malaysia and Indonesia respectively on the basis of 10%. Since the US imports less palm oil, this move may lead to more domestic soybean oil consumption. After the Ramadan in the production areas, palm oil enters the actual production - increasing period, and the inventory may gradually accumulate. Considering the recent decline in crude oil dragging down the biodiesel blending policy, the palm oil price is under pressure [9]. - According to Mysteel data, as of April 4, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.9216 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.22% (63,900 tons), among which the palm oil inventory was 373,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.27% (4,700 tons). The domestic palm oil has a rigid demand for transactions, with a low inventory, and there is a need for replenishment in the later period [9]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - Currently, domestic palm oil is mainly for rigid procurement. In the short - term, the Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market. The price of the P2505 contract on the futures market gapped down, breaking below the 60 - day moving average, showing a weak price trend. In the short - term, under the stimulation of news, the current market sentiment is weak, and the futures price of palm oil may show a weak bottom - oscillating trend [11].