Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the impact of the US-China trade conflict on various industries and macroeconomic conditions. Core Points and Arguments - **Global Supply Chain Constraints**: The US faces significant challenges in adjusting global supply chains in the short term, leading to persistent price increases that cannot be resolved through supply adjustments alone. This may require agreements with other trade partners or domestic subsidies for mitigation [1][3][4] - **Tariff Measures**: The US's imposition of tariffs is driven by economic, political, and social factors. The short-term goal is to address trade deficits and increase tax revenue, while the long-term goal is partial decoupling and maintaining global dominance, making complete tariff removal unlikely [1][5] - **China's Tariff Strategy**: China has adopted a strategy of suspending or canceling certain tariffs based on negotiation outcomes, making it one of the countries with the highest tax burdens globally due to tariffs related to fentanyl and investigations [1][5] - **Projected Revenue from Tariffs**: Assuming US imports reach $3 trillion in 2025, a 10% tariff could generate at least $200 billion in additional revenue, not accounting for potential future tariff increases on certain trade partners [1][6] - **Trade Negotiation Phases**: The current phase of US-China trade negotiations is the second stage, with expectations of continued tariff increases. The first phase saw China implement comprehensive countermeasures that exceeded market expectations [1][7][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs**: The imposition of tariffs leads to decreased total output and increased prices in consumer countries initially, followed by rising interest rates and inflation. In producer countries, initial output declines are offset by falling prices and rising real wages [2] - **Sector Resilience**: Sectors with low trade correlation, such as consumer goods, services, and consumer banking, are expected to remain stable. Import substitution sectors like agriculture and certain chemicals show potential, while automotive parts and consumer electronics may receive exemptions [3][9] - **Commodity Price Trends**: Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with domestic policy support potentially weakening, leading to price volatility. Interest rates are expected to have limited downward pressure, and exchange rates may fluctuate around the 7.2 mark [10] - **Investment Strategy**: In the current economic environment, it is recommended to focus on domestic demand sectors while maintaining a defensive investment posture. A small allocation to aggressive sectors is suggested to capitalize on market volatility [11]

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者挖掘基 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 2025年的春天，全球资本市场在特朗普政府的"关税风暴"中剧烈颠簸。 全球股市曾在单周蒸发10万亿美元、黄金一度冲上3500美元/盎司……市场用脚投票，诠释了何为"不确定性定 价"。 今日凌晨，全球投资者的目光再度聚焦中美对话的瑞士日内瓦。 午后3点，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合 声明》超预期出炉，关税冲突首次出现了重大缓和信号。 来源：新华社、中国政府网 当关税疑云终于迈出了实质性进展，大类资产将如何重新定价？ 历史不会简单重复，但资产配置的底层逻辑始终如一： 在周期的波动中寻找确定性，用分散化应对不 可预测的冲击。 01 本轮关税冲突全复盘 ——大国博弈之下的"跌宕起伏" 要理解此刻的变局，需回溯这场关税战的完整脉络。 这场始于2025年2月的较量，本质上是两个超级大国对于全球产业链话语权的终极角逐。 回顾自特朗普1月20日正式上任以来关税政策，大致可以划分为三个阶段。 第一阶段（2-3月）：威胁与试探 特朗普政府率先发难，波及的国家有我国、加拿大和墨西哥。同时，针对特殊行业如钢铁和铝，特朗普 方也单独制定了相关 ...

双降落地资产反映相对平淡，4月外贸转口补充对美出口 ——资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 2025 - 5 - 1 1 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 目 录 CONTENTS 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-29） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P30-46） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P47-48） | 日期 | 10年中债 | | 10年美债 | | 美元指数 | | 人民币 | | 标普500 | 上证指数 | 中证商品 | 原油 | | 黄金 | 铜 | 集运欧线 | 螺纹 | 豆粕 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 目 录 CONTENTS 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-29） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P30-46） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P47-48） 双降落地资产反映相对平淡，4月外贸转口补充对美出口 逻辑与观点：资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 ——资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 2025 - 5 - 1 1 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 ◆ 上周观点与策略：观点与策略：关税冲突初步反应在PMI数据上，那么央行4月份买断式回购+MLF续作等额对冲是否显得滞后于经济数据，适度宽松的货币政策为何落地这么迟？我们认为 这一问题的核心在于，全年经济增速目标5.0%+一季度数据5.4%超预期，叠加今年财政政策靠前发力明显，央行货币政策可以适度延后。国际环境方面，关税政策存 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][29]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry is expected to enter a new cycle driven by geopolitical conflicts, enhancing China's military trade focus and opening international markets for Chinese military products [5][3]. - The ongoing tariff conflicts highlight the comparative advantages of the military industry, with increased emphasis on self-sufficiency and potential growth in military investments [5][3]. - The fundamental changes in the military sector are solidifying the basis for industry growth, with a focus on quality and quantity improvements as the military approaches its centenary goals [5][3]. - There is a recommendation to increase attention on military stocks, particularly those related to precision-guided weapons, underwater capabilities, AI/robotics, and traditional aircraft supply chains [5][3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 6.33%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.92% [6][3]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense sector included Chengxi Aviation (59.26%), Hwa Wo (48.85%), and Lijun (36.49%) [6][14]. - Conversely, the bottom five performers were Platinum (−4.26%), Lingyun (−4.00%), and Guangdong Hongda (−2.52%) [6][15]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 75.10, indicating it is in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 65.46% since January 2014 [15][19]. - The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to be at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [15][19]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists key valuation targets, including companies like Feili Hua, Tianqin Equipment, and Aerospace Electronics, with projected earnings growth and PE ratios indicating potential investment opportunities [21][24].

煤炭周报 资料来源：Wind，民生证券研究院预测;（注：股价为 2025 年 5 月 9 日收盘价） 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 分析师 周泰 执业证书： S0100521110009 节后市场短期调整，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 05 月 10 日 ➢ 假期港口累库，需求淡季下煤价短期调整，筑底逻辑未变。关税冲突以来， 实体用电需求下降，叠加电煤淡季和五一假期影响，电厂日耗同环比下降，同时 伴随大秦线检修结束，假期期间日运量已恢复至 120 万吨水平，港口加速累库， 终端库存较高且采购意愿偏弱，在此影响下，节后煤价向下调整，5 月 9 日报收 635 元/吨。展望后市，电煤需求仍弱势运行，非电化工耗煤需求近两周环比增幅 明显，持续性有待观察，因目前港口库存高企，煤价向上动力不足；但同时供给 端来看，持续跌价压力或通过市场机制倒逼高成本煤矿减产，4 月我国煤炭进口 量同环比分别减少 743/91 万吨，当前进口煤仍倒挂较多，预计后续进口量或延 续下滑趋势，现货价和长协价持续倒挂下，港口长协合理区间下限 570 元/吨的 价格也将对现货煤价形成支撑，因此煤价下行压力亦有限。当前港口供需矛盾 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomically, the global manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction zone for two consecutive months, increasing global economic downward pressure. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may bring new breakthroughs in tariff conflicts, which could affect market sentiment. Operationally, silicon - manganese should be treated as a running market, with the sector under pressure and auxiliary materials stopping their decline, while the significant reduction in manganese ore port inventory provides cost support [6]. - Overseas, the EU may propose to buy $56 billion worth of US products to end the trade war, certain auto parts from Canada and Mexico are exempt from a 25% tariff, and the EU plans to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, supply - side production is at a loss, dampening production enthusiasm. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 9.47% this period, but the arrival volume of manganese ore in May is expected to increase. Downstream hot - metal production shows signs of peaking and falling, and price fluctuations may intensify after the decline in demand. The spot production profit in Inner Mongolia is - 230 yuan/ton, and - 410 yuan/ton in Ningxia. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' steel procurement in May [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Macroeconomic aspect: The global manufacturing PMI in April was below 50% for two consecutive months, increasing global economic downward pressure. The Sino - US economic and trade talks from May 9 - 12 may bring new changes to tariff conflicts [6]. - Overseas aspect: The EU may buy $56 billion of US products, auto parts from Canada and Mexico are tariff - exempt, and the EU plans to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [6]. - Supply - demand aspect: Supply - side production is unprofitable, with low production enthusiasm. Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 9.47% this period, but the arrival volume in May is expected to increase. Downstream hot - metal production may peak and fall. Inner Mongolia's spot production profit is - 230 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 410 yuan/ton. Steel mills' May steel procurement should be monitored [6]. - Technical aspect: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - Strategy suggestion: The sector is under pressure macroeconomically, while auxiliary materials stop falling. The significant reduction in manganese ore port inventory provides cost support. Silicon - manganese should be treated as a running market [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - As of May 9, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 635,300 lots, a net increase of 22,200 lots. The monthly spread was 68, a decrease of 10 [12]. - As of May 9, the manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 119,697, a decrease of 4,519. The price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts was 276, an increase of 126 [16]. Spot Market - As of May 9, the average ex - factory price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Supply and Inventory - This week (May 8), the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel grades (70%) was 125,861 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from last week. The national silicon - manganese production (99%) was 172,025 tons, a decrease of 5.90% from last week. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week, and the daily average output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1,540 tons [26]. - As of May 8, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national capacity) was 207,100 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons [29]. Upstream - As of May 8, the price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period, and the price of Australian manganese ore was 40 yuan/ton - degree, an increase of 3 yuan/ton - degree [35]. - As of May 6, the electricity price for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kWh, and in Inner Mongolia, it was 0.42 yuan/kWh, unchanged [35]. - As of April 25, 2025, the port inventory of imported manganese ore was 3.671 million tons, a decrease of 384,000 tons. The global shipment volume of South African manganese ore was 641,100 tons, an increase of 41.83% from last week and 30.91% from the same period last year. The global shipment volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 60,700 tons, a decrease of 61.04% from last week and 82.06% from the same period last year [40]. - As of May 9, the spot production cost in the northern region of silicon - manganese was 5,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was 6,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was - 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton [47]. Downstream - As of May 9, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last week and 111,400 tons from the same period last year [53]. - On April 17, the silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS was 5,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from March, and the ferrosilicon tender price was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from March [53].

Group 1 - Warren Buffett emphasized the importance of international trade and criticized the use of tariffs as a weapon, suggesting that prosperity in other regions enhances U.S. security and prosperity [1] - Buffett expressed concerns about the current tariff conflicts and the U.S. government's deficit and dollar status, advocating for trade based on each country's strengths [1] - Despite concerns over tariffs, Buffett downplayed recent market volatility, comparing it to historical declines that did not indicate fundamental issues within Berkshire Hathaway [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government implemented a 25% tariff on imported automotive parts, which has drawn strong criticism from the automotive industry, warning of increased prices and disrupted supply chains [3] - New policies aim to avoid additional tariffs on imported cars and reduce tariffs on foreign parts used in U.S. car production, potentially allowing for refunds on previously paid tariffs [4] - The U.S. has a significant disparity in Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rates compared to the EU, with U.S. passenger cars and light trucks facing rates of 2.5% and 25%, respectively, while EU rates are considerably higher [5] Group 3 - In response to the new tariff policies, multinational automakers like Volkswagen and Audi have adjusted their pricing strategies and paused shipments from Mexico, indicating a swift reaction to the regulatory changes [7] - Other luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari, and Porsche are also planning to increase prices for their models in the U.S. market due to the new tariffs [7]

Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, international gold prices exhibited a "deep V" trend, initially dropping to the $3200 mark due to unexpected news such as the breakdown of Japan's tariff negotiations and Trump's expansion of tariffs, but quickly rebounding to over $3400 per ounce as risk aversion increased [1] - The gold ETF (159937) saw a nearly 1% increase, achieving a transaction volume exceeding 400 million yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 45% in the past year [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with Chairman Powell indicating no urgency to adjust rates, despite rising uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings, with expectations of fewer than or equal to two rate cuts within the year [2] - The market remains volatile, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and the unclear outlook for U.S. stocks, with a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the dollar [2] - Recent economic data showed a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter decline in U.S. GDP, indicating the impact of tariffs, while personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.8% [3] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) closely tracks domestic gold prices with an annualized tracking error of only 0.3%, allowing investors to avoid storage and authentication costs while trading through a securities account [4]

特朗普（资料图） 据环球时报报道，从比尔·盖茨到蒂姆·库克，再到摩根大通的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，连日来，美国的科技巨头、华尔街精英纷纷对巴菲 特决定今年年底前卸任以及对关税冲突的批评做出回应。当地时间3日，一年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州 举行。该年会是分析经济形势、盘点市场走势的重要年度经济活动。此次年会正值全球经济受关税政策影响增长乏力之际，因而尤为受 到关注。现年94岁的巴菲特在年会收官讲话中正式宣布他将于年底卸任公司首席执行官。 这一举动将标志着一个时代的结束，也引发了人们对这家世界上最大的公司之一、财富创造机器未来走向的疑问。巴菲特表示，一旦阿 贝尔接任，他将对伯克希尔的所有决策拥有 "最终决定权"，包括资本配置的各个方面。巴菲特称，在某些情况下，他仍会 "留在公司， 并且可能会派上用场"。他还向股东们保证，自己无意出售任何伯克希尔的股票，将保留公司全部股份（约1600亿美元）。 巴菲特（资料图） 据美联社报道，巴菲特在长达五个小时的问答环节结束后宣布了这一消息，且没有回答任何相关问题。巴菲特表示，董事会成员中唯一 知道此事的只有他的两个孩子霍华德·巴菲特和苏茜·巴菲特。多年 ...