1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.13%, with volume and open interest contracting. In the current situation, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level with few real - world contradictions. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily decline of 0.06%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the expectation of policy benefits is fermenting. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil price continues to fluctuate at a high level. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated and rebounded, recording a daily increase of 0.14%, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. At present, after the end of the "exemption period", the tariff disturbance reappears, and the market sentiment weakens. The iron ore price has fallen after fluctuating at a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable. In the short term, the iron ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Tariff announcement**: US President Trump announced on July 7, 2025, that the US will impose tariffs on products from Indonesia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Tunisia starting from August 1, 2025, with rates ranging from 25% to 36% [6]. - **Excavator sales**: In June 2025, 18,804 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to June 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [7]. - **Iron ore production of Ferrexpo**: Due to the Ukrainian government's suspension of the VAT refund policy, Ferrexpo's operating cash flow was under pressure in Q2 2025. The company reduced the pellet production line from two to one, resulting in a significant decline in iron ore production [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The national average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 2 yuan. The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of hot - rolled coil in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports increased by 1 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the SGX swap and the Platts Index decreased [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price was 3,063 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 954,572 lots, a decrease of 271,730 lots, and the open interest was 2,168,547 lots, a decrease of 28,783 lots [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price was 3,191 yuan, a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume was 341,788 lots, a decrease of 148,639 lots, and the open interest was 1,593,691 lots, an increase of 8,136 lots [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price was 733.0 yuan, an increase of 0.14%. The trading volume was 233,496 lots, a decrease of 57,393 lots, and the open interest was 655,157 lots, an increase of 7,312 lots [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as the seasonal inventory of 45 ports [18][19][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has little change. Supply continues to rise to a high level this year, while demand remains weak in the off - season. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply and demand are mainly stable. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Policy benefits are expected, but the price may switch to the industrial logic. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [36]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the inventory has increased again. The terminal consumption of ore has declined slightly. The supply has shrunk. The ore price is likely to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA60 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices have declined in a volatile manner [2]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. During the off - season, steel prices continue to face pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The view is to pay attention to the support of the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weakening market sentiment and the decline of steel prices in a volatile manner. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment, and steel prices have declined from high levels. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Steel mills' production is active, and rebar output continues to rise, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows a stable performance overall, and although high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, they are still at a low level in the same period, and off - season demand remains weak. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

2025 年 07 月 08 日 商 品 研 究 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 宏观方面，特朗普征税函第一波,日韩等 14 国 25%到 40%不等，8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。（华 尔街见闻） 微观方面，据 SMM 了解，Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂 2025 年中谈判结果 TC/RC 敲定为 0.0 美元/千 吨及 0.0 美分磅，远超市场预期。（SMM） 巴拿马政府：逾 3.3 万公吨铜精矿已从关闭的 Cobre Panama 铜矿运出。（SMM） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,270 | -0.58% | 79390 | 0.15% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,784 | -0.69% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern, with the price of iron ore expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term view on the iron ore 2509 contract is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be in a state of oscillation, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern leading to a weakly oscillating ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have weakened. During the off - season, more steel mills are undergoing inspections, and the terminal consumption of ore has begun to decline but remains at a high level for the year, providing some support for the ore price. At the same time, port arrivals have increased, but miners' shipments have continued to decrease significantly. After the end of the fiscal year, overseas ore supply has significantly shrunk, and domestic ore production has stabilized, resulting in a contraction of ore supply. After the "exemption period" ends, tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment. With the supply - demand dual - weak situation, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable, and the short - term ore price is likely to be under pressure and oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a barbell strategy focusing on dividends and micro-cap stocks, which is expected to continue outperforming in a macro environment characterized by low interest rates and ample liquidity. The long-term strategic allocation center for dividends and micro-cap stocks is around 70:30, effectively reducing drawdowns and enhancing returns [2][6][49]. - In the first half of 2025, the report identifies strong trend sectors that have not yet overheated, suggesting attention towards city commercial banks in the dividend sector, retail pharmacy and chemical pharmaceuticals in the healthcare sector, and other agricultural processing, express delivery, and specialized retail markets in the consumer sector [7][54]. Group 2 - The report notes that the broad market indices, such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500, have been in a prolonged sideways movement with low volatility, while thematic rotations have accelerated. Key themes include AI technology breakthroughs, gold price fluctuations due to tariff disturbances, and the performance of new consumption leaders driven by globalization [4][20]. - The report highlights that active equity funds have outperformed passive index funds, with active equity funds yielding approximately 5.5% compared to 2.6% for passive index funds as of June 18, 2025. The report also notes significant inflows into money market funds and mixed bond funds, reflecting a shift towards lower-risk investments in a declining interest rate environment [5][24][29].

Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000 and the revised previous value of 144,000[11] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[11] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9% and revised previous increase of 3.8%[11] Government vs. Private Sector Employment - Government jobs contributed nearly half of the new employment, with 73,000 jobs added, significantly higher than the previous month's 7,000[15] - Private sector employment weakened, with service sector jobs dropping from 141,000 to 68,000, indicating potential economic pressure from tariff disruptions[18] - Retail sector employment rebounded slightly, adding 2,000 jobs compared to a loss of 7,000 in the previous month[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, down from 62.4% in the previous month, with a notable decline in youth employment willingness[27] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.7% from 7.8%[32] - Permanent unemployment decreased by 29,000, while temporary job losses also declined, suggesting stability in the job market[32] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the unsustainable rise in government employment and the risk of weakening non-farm data, the probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in the second half of 2025 is significant[20] - Market expectations indicate a 60% chance of a rate cut in September 2025, with only a 5.2% chance in July[22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that COMEX gold prices are expected to steadily break through $3,300 per ounce, with a potential to reach $3,500 per ounce under extreme risk scenarios [1] - In the third quarter, if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, WTI oil prices may hit $75 per barrel due to transportation bottlenecks and seasonal demand [1] - By the fourth quarter, as demand weakens and OPEC+ resumes supply increases, WTI oil prices are projected to return to around $60 per barrel [1] Group 2 - The report highlights three major uncertainties for the second half of 2025: first, tariff disruptions, where U.S. tariff policies may reshape international order and global power structures, leading to potential re-imposition of tariffs post-agreement [1] - Second, credit reconstruction is noted, with the U.S. debt reaching $36.1 trillion and over 30% of short-term external debt, raising liquidity risks and questioning the dollar's credit system [1] - Third, geopolitical risks are emphasized, particularly with the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, which could lead to increased oil prices and global shipping costs, resulting in new structural re-evaluations of asset prices [1] Group 3 - In terms of global macroeconomic outlook, the report suggests that major economies are experiencing structural deceleration rather than typical recession, with the U.S. economy expected to transition slowly and steadily [2] - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in the second half of 2025, likely in September and December, unless inflation remains resilient or growth data is strong [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In May, the year - on - year profit of industrial enterprises above designated size dropped to -9.1%, a significant decline from April. The year - on - year decline of PPI in May was 3.3%, and the drag on profits increased compared to April. After excluding price factors, the growth rate of single - month operating income declined marginally, indicating that the support from quantity factors also weakened in May. The resonance of internal and external demand fluctuations and the widening decline of PPI under the influence of tariffs led to a further decline in the profit growth rate in May [2][25]. - Looking ahead, the "rush - to - export" effect has weakened since June. The internal driving force of the economy in the second quarter shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the economy in the second half of the year faces high - base disturbances, so the necessity of domestic demand policy stimulus increases. The lower price base and the gradual expenditure of fiscal funds may help repair the price side of corporate profits. The importance of domestic demand stimulus becomes prominent as the export elasticity may weaken and the external tariff policy environment faces uncertainties in August [2][28]. - In the third quarter, the existing domestic demand policies such as consumption and investment may be further strengthened, and the quantity factors may improve marginally. At the same time, the PPI base will be lower in the second half of the year. Coupled with the stimulus of domestic demand and the formation of project expenditures and physical work volume by previous fiscal funds, the drag of prices on corporate profits is also expected to narrow [28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Perspective: Downstream Consumption Policy Support Catalyzes, while Upstream and Mid - stream Face Disturbances - **Upstream**: Mining industry profits are still under pressure, with most industries seeing an expansion of profit decline, but the energy supply industry continues to grow positively. For example, the profit decline of coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, and ferrous metal ore mining industries widened; the profit of non - ferrous metal ore mining industry increased, and the profit of the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased slightly [8][16]. - **Mid - stream**: Equipment manufacturing is better than material processing, and it continues to grow slightly. The pressure on the material processing industry persists, with the year - on - year decline expanding. The profit growth rate of mid - stream equipment manufacturing decreased, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate at +0.1% [17]. - **Downstream**: There is a structural differentiation between essential and optional consumption, and the electronics equipment industry still performs strongly. The profit of essential consumption turned negative year - on - year, while the profit of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery and the beverage industry maintained growth. Most of the optional consumption industries had weak year - on - year profits, but the electronics equipment industry still performed well [18]. 3.2 Cost Side: Slight Increase in Expenses, Marginal Slight Improvement in Profit Margin - From January to May, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 85.61 yuan, an increase of 0.24 yuan year - on - year and 0.07 yuan compared to January - April. The expense per 100 yuan of operating income was 8.29 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan year - on - year but an increase of 0.01 yuan compared to January - April, indicating a slowdown in the pace of cost reduction. The cumulative operating income profit margin from January to May was 4.97%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points year - on - year but an increase of 0.10 percentage points compared to January - April. Although the profit efficiency is still a drag compared to the same period last year, it has improved marginally [1][20]. 3.3 Inventory: Actual Inventory May Increase Passively - As of the end of May, the finished - product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.65 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the end of April, and the nominal inventory growth rate declined slightly. After considering price factors, the actual inventory growth rate after excluding PPI was 6.8%, an increase from 6.6% in April. Since the sales - to - production ratio slowed down in May, indicating weak actual demand recovery, the actual inventory may have increased passively. The turnover days of finished - product inventory from January to May were 20.8 days, an increase of 0.1 days year - on - year but a decrease of 0.2 days compared to January - April, indicating a slightly faster turnover rhythm. The average collection period of accounts receivable was 70.5 days, an increase of 3.7 days year - on - year but a decrease of 0.2 days compared to January - April, indicating that the policy of promoting the settlement of arrears has compressed the collection period [23].

Group 1 - On June 18, the total net inflow of industry-themed ETFs reached 1.042 billion yuan, with the total market size of 3.52 trillion yuan across 1,119 stock ETFs [1] - Notably, 14 stock ETFs had net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top performers being the Hang Seng Technology ETF and the Dividend Low Volatility ETF, each attracting over 300 million yuan [1] - The net inflow for ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Technology Index was 520 million yuan, while those tracking the Dividend and Non-Bank Financial Indexes saw inflows of 440 million yuan and 410 million yuan, respectively [1] Group 2 - Over the past five days, net inflows into the Sci-Tech 50 Index products exceeded 3.8 billion yuan, and the Hang Seng Technology Index products saw inflows over 2.7 billion yuan [2] - On June 18, the Huaxia Fund's Credit Bond ETF and Sci-Tech 50 ETF had net inflows of 2.923 billion yuan and 274 million yuan, respectively, with their latest sizes being 17.165 billion yuan and 81.987 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - On June 18, broad-based ETFs experienced slight outflows, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3] - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery are seen as favorable for dividend strategies, with strong dividend capabilities from state-owned enterprises [3] - The performance of sectors such as precious metals and innovative pharmaceuticals is expected to remain relatively strong, despite potential inflationary pressures from increased tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant inflow of funds into industry-themed ETFs, with a total net inflow of 1.042 billion yuan on June 18, indicating strong investor interest in specific sectors [1]. Fund Inflows - On June 18, the total scale of 1,119 stock ETFs in the market reached 3.52 trillion yuan, with 14 ETFs experiencing net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1]. - The top performers included: - Hang Seng Technology ETF with a net inflow of 340 million yuan [2]. - Dividend Low Volatility ETF with a net inflow of 318 million yuan [2]. - Sci-Tech 50 ETF with a net inflow of 274 million yuan [2]. - Multiple broker and financial technology ETFs also saw inflows exceeding 150 million yuan [1][2]. Recent Trends - Over the past five days, the inflow into the Sci-Tech 50 index products exceeded 3.8 billion yuan, while the inflow into the Hang Seng Technology index products surpassed 2.7 billion yuan [3]. - Leading fund companies continue to see substantial inflows, with Huaxia Fund's credit bond ETF and Sci-Tech 50 ETF recording net inflows of 2.923 billion yuan and 274 million yuan respectively on June 18 [3]. Market Outlook - The article notes a slight outflow from broad-based ETFs on June 18, indicating potential market volatility [4]. - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery are seen as favorable for dividend strategies, with strong dividend capabilities from central state-owned enterprises [4]. - The article also mentions that sectors like precious metals and innovative pharmaceuticals are performing relatively well, with expectations that tariff impacts on A-shares will diminish over time [4].