Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

Group 1 - The long-term support level for the monthly chart is at 3230, indicating a bullish outlook [2] - The weekly chart shows a support level at 3750, also suggesting a medium-term bullish sentiment [2] - The daily chart indicates a resistance level at 4105, reflecting a short-term bearish trend [2] - The four-hour chart identifies a key threshold at 3993, with prices expected to oscillate upwards in the short term [2] Group 2 - The long-term resistance level for the monthly chart is at 63.40, indicating a bearish outlook for oil [4] - The weekly chart shows a support level at 60.70, suggesting a medium-term bullish sentiment for oil [4] - The daily chart indicates a resistance level at 59.40, reflecting a short-term bullish trend for oil [4] - The four-hour chart identifies a critical range between 60.60 and 70, with prices above this range treated as bullish in the short term [4] Group 3 - Key economic data and events to watch on November 3, 2025, include various manufacturing PMI reports from China, Switzerland, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US, as well as construction spending data from the US [4] - Notable speeches from Federal Reserve's Daly and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem are scheduled, along with the US Treasury's fourth-quarter financing estimate [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation" as the short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases while the medium - and long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The PMI data in October showed weakening, and the lack of effective domestic demand remains. In the long run, a loose monetary environment is needed, and the central bank's stance provides support for treasury bond futures. However, the short - term need for an overall interest rate cut is not strong, so the short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the short - term movement range is limited, mainly in oscillation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The driving factors include the weakening of October's manufacturing PMI data, the problem of insufficient domestic demand, the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run, and the low short - term need for an overall interest rate cut [5].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,906, down 1.43% for the day and up 29.15% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.37% to 5,908, with a year-to-date increase of 32.23% [1] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.47% to 4,640, with a year-to-date rise of 17.94% [1] - The Dow Jones Index rose slightly by 0.09% to 47,562, with a year-to-date increase of 11.80% [1] Currency and Commodity Overview - The Renminbi Index increased by 1.23% over the past month and 1.47% over six months, currently at 97.550 [2] - Brent crude oil price is at $64.55 per barrel, down 2.24% month-on-month but up 7.01% over six months [2] - Gold prices rose by 3.65% in the last month, currently at $4,001.04 per ounce, with a 21.63% increase over six months [2] Hong Kong Market Review - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 26,000 points and experiencing three consecutive days of losses [5] - Major declines were noted in technology stocks, with Alibaba dropping over 4% [5] - The overall trading volume in the main board decreased to over 257.6 billion HKD [5] A-share Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% to 3,954 [6] - The ChiNext Index fell over 2%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.14% [6] - The A-share market has ended a five-month upward trend, with October showing a slight increase of 1.85% for the Shanghai Composite Index [6] US Market Overview - US stock indices reversed previous declines, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.1% and the S&P 500 rising by 0.3% [7] - Notable performances included Amazon's cloud computing business exceeding expectations, driving its stock price up nearly 10% [7] - The Nasdaq Index increased by over 0.6%, marking a three-week consecutive rise [7] European Market Overview - European stock markets showed weakness, with the DAX Index falling nearly 0.7% to 23,958 [8] - The UK FTSE 100 Index ended a nine-day rise, closing at 9,717, down over 0.4% [8] - Overall, European markets are digesting mixed corporate earnings amid moderate inflation data [8] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, up from 3.1% in Q2 [15] - The software industry in mainland China reported a revenue increase of 13% year-on-year, reaching 11.11 trillion RMB [19] - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in October reached 441,706 units, a month-on-month increase of 11.5% [21]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 中国10月RatingDog制造业PMI 50.6，前值51.2。 ...

Core Insights - Australia's October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value stands at 49.7, unchanged from the previous value of 49.7 [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing sector in Australia remains in contraction territory as indicated by the PMI value below 50 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the manufacturing PMI for October has decreased to 49% from 49.8% in September, reflecting a weaker performance compared to seasonal levels in previous years [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index has slightly increased to 50.1% from 50% in September, partially due to disruptions from holiday scheduling and a reduction in working days impacting production activities [1] - Overall, the October industrial production and export readings may be affected by holiday scheduling disruptions, while consumption indicators could see marginal improvement [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the PMI indicators remain in a weak range, suggesting that counter-cyclical policies need to be strengthened to boost the manufacturing sector's performance [1]

Group 1 - The article outlines key economic indicators and events scheduled for November 2025, including U.S. employment data and manufacturing indices [2][3] - It highlights the release of various economic reports such as the U.S. trade balance for September and the ADP employment report for October [2][3] - The calendar includes significant dates for central bank meetings, including the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision and the Bank of England's rate announcement [2][3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's October CPI and PPI, which are critical for assessing inflation trends [2] - It notes the importance of the U.S. non-farm payroll report and unemployment rate for October, which are key indicators of labor market health [2][3] - The article also references the OPEC monthly report and its implications for the oil market, alongside weekly EIA crude oil inventory data [2][3]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.0%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is notably higher than the seasonal average decline of 0.4 percentage points observed from 2020 to 2024[2][5] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%[5][15] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest level since the introduction of high tariffs in April 2025[5][20] - Small enterprises experienced a notable decline in PMI, falling 1.1 percentage points to 47.1%, while large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%[6] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 50.1%, slightly up from 50.0% in the previous month, driven by holiday consumption[2][28] - The service sector showed improvement, with indices for transportation, retail, and entertainment exceeding 60%, indicating strong performance in consumer-related services[28] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, but new orders and business activity expectations increased, suggesting a potential recovery in infrastructure activities[34] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the construction sector may benefit from the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond issuance, which could support infrastructure investment[4][34] - The overall economic environment remains cautious due to external trade uncertainties and domestic demand stability, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries[16][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that market volatility is primarily driven by marginal changes in policy intentions rather than personal feelings, highlighting the importance of understanding policy direction in the bond market [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49, significantly below expectations (49.6) and the previous value (49.8), indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [6]. - The stock market experienced fluctuations, while the bond market showed a positive sentiment early in the day, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.802% and dropping to around 1.792% [6]. - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 355.1 billion yuan for 7 days, with a net injection of 187.1 billion yuan after 168 billion yuan matured [4]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The interbank funding rates showed a slight decline, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.46% [4]. - The weighted rates for various repo codes indicated a mixed trend, with R001 at 1.41% (up 4 basis points) and R007 at 1.49% (down 6 basis points) [5]. - The current interest rate corridor is noted to be between 1.2% and 1.9%, suggesting a potential narrowing of the corridor width, which may imply a reduction in the adjustment range for rates [7]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The article mentions a significant decline in profits for major liquor companies, with the top five brands experiencing nearly a 20% drop, reflecting broader economic challenges [7]. - The sentiment in the liquor industry is contrasted with the bond market, suggesting that while the liquor sector faces difficulties, the bond market may continue to perform steadily [7].