Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Crude Oil Futures: Supply Glut, Geopolitical Instability - Author: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International oil prices fluctuated slightly in the week ending November 14, 2025. The prices rose in the first half of the week due to factors such as increased Chinese crude oil imports in October, a weaker US dollar, and the US government's progress in ending the shutdown, as well as ongoing sanctions on Russia and infrastructure attacks in Ukraine. However, they declined in the second half after the OPEC monthly report forecast a supply glut [2]. - Despite the downward pressure from the overall supply glut in the crude oil market, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy facilities introduce uncertainties and partially offset the downward pressure, leading to a volatile and fluctuating price trend in the short - term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level of 470 yuan/barrel for the 01 contract [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - As of November 14, 2025, SC2601, Brent, and WTI oil prices were 463.6 yuan/barrel, 64.39, and 59.39 US dollars/barrel respectively. SC2601 and Brent prices rose slightly from the previous weekend, while WTI fell slightly [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Crude Oil | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 463.60 | 460.60 | 3 | 0.89% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 65.19 | 65.12 | -0.07 | -0.08% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 64.29 | 63.70 | 0.59 | 0.93% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 59.81 | 59.67 | -0.03 | -0.05% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13651 | 211 | 1.55% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 427581 | 421168 | 6413 | 1.52% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 704 | 528 | 171 | 33.33% | Weekly | [4] Market Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of different crude oil products (SC, Oman, Brent, WTI), their spreads, as well as relationships with factors like the US dollar index. Also, charts display supply (OPEC and US production, US rig counts), inventory (OECD and US inventories), demand (refinery inputs, utilization rates in the US, China, Europe, and India), and cost - profit (refinery profits) aspects [6][12][18][25][33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - Copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the Shanghai Copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton and LME Copper 3M in the range of 10,720 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [4] - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. Although the short - term rise has slowed down, if domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the prices may strengthen further after consolidation. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton and LME Aluminum 3M in the range of 2,830 - 2,890 US dollars/ton [6] - Lead prices are expected to slow down in growth and enter a volatile state [8] - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10] - Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile state, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and overseas LME Tin in the range of 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [12] - Nickel prices are under fundamental pressure. The short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. If the nickel - iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough (around 115,000 yuan/ton), light - position long positions can be gradually established. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [15][16] - For lithium carbonate, the current market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. The short - term upside space may be limited without continuous driving forces. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in lithium - battery materials in December, battery production in the first quarter, and the equity market atmosphere. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is expected to operate in the range of 85,300 - 89,900 yuan/ton [19] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] - Stainless steel prices are expected to continue the downward trend under the background of high supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [25] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [28] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Fed rate - cut expectations weakened, leading to a correction in precious - metal prices. On Friday, copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME Copper 3M contract closed down 0.12% at 10,846 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 86,680 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 450 to 135,725 tons. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M changed from a discount to a slight premium. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased week - on - week, and warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 50,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 55 yuan/ton, and the trading sentiment warmed up. Inventories in Guangdong decreased, and the spot premium was 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 3,480 yuan/ton, narrowing week - on - week [3] - **Strategy View**: The US government reopened, but there are some headwinds at the geopolitical level. The impact on sentiment is expected to be limited. In terms of the industry, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight. After the price correction, the spot market has improved marginally. The short - term pressure on refined copper inventory accumulation is not large, and copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, market risk appetite weakened, and aluminum prices declined. LME Aluminum closed down 0.64% at 2,858 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,795 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai Aluminum weighted contract decreased by 4.4 to 784,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 65,000 tons. Domestic inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined. The market trading was still poor. The spot price of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at par with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand purchases. LME aluminum inventories decreased by 0.1 to 552,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M discount widened [5] - **Strategy View**: The reopening of the US government, combined with the expectation of tight overseas supply and low domestic inventories, led to a significant increase in positions and a sharp rise in Shanghai Aluminum. Currently, domestic aluminum - ingot inventories are relatively volatile, and overseas aluminum inventories are still at a low level, strongly supporting aluminum prices. Although the short - term decline in market risk appetite has slowed down the rise of aluminum prices, if domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, aluminum prices still have the hope of further strengthening after consolidation [6] Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead index closed down 0.91% at 17,501 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 123,600 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 20.5 to 2,068 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 158,500 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,425 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 100 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead - ingot futures inventory was 31,000 tons, the domestic basis was - 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was - 50 yuan/ton. LME lead - ingot inventories were 224,000 tons, and LME lead - ingot cancelled warrants were 95,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 24.26 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 94.4 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.193, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was - 315.86 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories slightly increased to 40,900 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: Lead - ore inventories increased slightly, but the TC of lead concentrates continued to decline. Waste - battery inventories increased slightly, and the supply of domestic lead raw materials remained tight. The profits of primary and secondary smelting were good, the operating rate of primary smelting remained high, and the operating rate of secondary smelting continued to rise. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises improved marginally. Overall, domestic lead - ingot social inventories increased marginally. Last week, lead prices tried to break through the 17,800 - yuan level again. However, with the hawkish remarks of Fed officials, the sentiment in the precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal markets declined, and the main long - position holders quickly reduced their positions. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Lead changed from long to short. It is expected that the growth rate of lead prices will slow down, and the prices will enter a volatile state [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc index closed down 1.39% at 22,455 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 226,700 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S fell 63 to 3,026 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 228,200 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,490 yuan/ton, the basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 70 yuan/ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 60 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 30 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc - ingot futures inventory was 71,800 tons, the domestic basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was - 55 yuan/ton. LME zinc - ingot inventories were 37,800 tons, and LME zinc - ingot cancelled warrants were 3,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 121.49 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 49.15 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.048, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, domestic social inventories slightly decreased to 157,900 tons [9] - **Strategy View**: Zinc - ore inventories increased slightly, but zinc ore remained in short supply during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, and the profits of zinc smelting were damaged. The supply of zinc ingots decreased marginally. The downstream operating rate remained stable, and the growth of domestic zinc - ingot social inventories slowed down. In the LME market, zinc - ingot warrants slowly increased, and the LME zinc monthly spread decreased marginally. With the hawkish remarks of Fed officials last Friday, the sentiment in the precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal markets declined, and the main long - position holders quickly reduced their positions. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc quickly declined. It is expected that zinc prices will be weak in the short term [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 291,450 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange futures increased by 234 tons to 5,498 tons. The upstream 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was quoted at 280,100 yuan/ton, down 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of supply, with the end of the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan, the operating rates of tin - ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces have stabilized, but the overall operating level is still at a historical low. The core reason is that the problem of tight supply of tin - ore raw materials has not been fundamentally resolved. Although the mining licenses in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, affected by the rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the export volume of tin ore is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the supply gap. According to customs data, in September 2025, China's import volume of tin - concentrate physical quantity reached 8,714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. In terms of demand, although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectation brought by emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers provides support for tin prices. In October, the operating rate of domestic tin - solder enterprises showed a slight warming trend. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished their inventories on dips [11] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile state. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and overseas LME Tin in the range of 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, nickel prices fell sharply. At 3 pm, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton, down 1.56% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, the overall trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was okay this week, and nickel - ore prices were stable with a slight upward trend. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was 52.8 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week; the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was 58 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. In terms of nickel - iron, prices fell rapidly. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 905.5 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 3.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [14] - **Strategy View**: The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures. First, refined - nickel inventories have been increasing since October, directly suppressing nickel prices. Second, nickel - iron prices have been falling rapidly since November, and the expectation of RKEF production lines switching to high - grade nickel matte has increased. The supply of refined nickel is expected to increase significantly. In addition, the demand for nickel sulfate is gradually weakening, and with the expected commissioning of the Indonesian MHP project, the supply of refined - nickel raw materials has been further supplemented. Considering that the current profit level of nickel - iron is already at an absolute low, it is expected that the short - term decline space of nickel prices is limited. However, it is also necessary to guard against the negative - feedback risk caused by the decline in nickel - ore prices. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel - iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough (around 115,000 yuan/ton), light - position long positions can be gradually established. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [15][16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On November 14, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 86,543 yuan, down 1.14% from the previous working day and up 7.34% for the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 86,200 - 87,300 yuan, with the average price down 1,000 yuan (- 1.14%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 85,200 - 85,700 yuan, with the average price down 1.16% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 87,360 yuan, down 0.55% from the previous closing price and up 6.15% for the week. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan. The CIF price of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was quoted at 1,040 - 1,070 US dollars/ton, with the average price up 0.48% from the previous day and up 12.23% for the week [18] - **Strategy View**: The current market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles and energy - storage batteries have reached new highs, and the high - level consumption has driven the bullish sentiment in the lithium - battery material and raw - material markets. In the short term, the domestic lithium - carbonate production is approaching the upper limit, the capacity utilization rates of all links in the industrial chain are at the annual peak, the lithium - salt spot is in short supply, and the inventory days have reached the lowest level since data records began. At the same time, the expected accelerated inventory reduction in the market has been fully traded, and the peak season is in

Core Insights - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors, with both U.S. and Brent crude oil contracts experiencing slight increases on the day but declines over the week [1] Oil Market Summary - The U.S. oil main contract closed at $59.84 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of 0.69% but a weekly decline of 1.87% [1] - The Brent crude oil main contract closed at $63.68 per barrel, showing a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly decline of 1.68% [1] - The oil market is currently experiencing a volatile upward trend due to geopolitical influences [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with international gold prices under pressure from a strong US dollar, while domestic prices in China are rising due to different market dynamics [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 1, 2025, international spot gold opened at $4036.48 per ounce and closed at $4001.93, down $34.59, while domestic gold prices in China rose, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold contract closing at 921.84 yuan per gram, up 0.39% [3]. - The price difference between domestic and international gold has reached a historical high of 205 yuan per gram, with domestic prices significantly higher than international prices when converted to RMB [3]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy changes, including a 25 basis point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening, which theoretically supports gold prices [5][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have not led to a significant increase in gold's safe-haven demand, as the market has partially absorbed these risks [5][8]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to 107.64, creating a "see-saw" effect with gold prices, as a stronger dollar typically suppresses gold [5][10]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that if gold prices fall below $3973 per ounce, there could be further downside potential to $3847 per ounce [9]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, with the RSI at 44.9, indicating continued short-term downward pressure on gold prices [5][9]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Supply - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, reaching 2292 tons by October 2025, a 12% increase year-on-year, supporting domestic gold prices [5][10]. - The domestic gold market is experiencing strong demand, particularly in the context of traditional consumption peaks, although seasonal demand is expected to decline in the coming months [8][14]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious of high premiums associated with gold jewelry and the potential pitfalls of leveraged trading in gold [12][14]. - The gold recycling market has seen prices fluctuate, with current recovery prices ranging from 888 to 913 yuan per gram, reflecting market volatility [7][14].

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $63.4 and $59.3 per barrel, respectively, with increases of $1.4 and $1.0 compared to the previous week [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.63 million barrels per day, showing a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day week-on-week [2] - Active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 2 to a total of 420, while active fracturing fleets rose by 3 to 175 [2] Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 410 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels. Changes from the previous week include decreases of 1.4 million barrels and 0.96 million barrels in total and commercial inventories, respectively, while strategic inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels and Cushing inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels [1][2] Refinery Activity - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 15.73 million barrels per day, up by 600,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [2] Oil Trade Dynamics - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 5.92 million, 4.20 million, and 1.72 million barrels per day, respectively, with imports increasing by 390,000 barrels per day and exports decreasing by 260,000 barrels per day [2] Refined Product Overview - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $78, $95, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.1, +$2.0, and -$5.1 [3] - Refined product inventories for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 220 million, 120 million, and 40 million barrels, respectively, with decreases of 2.15 million, 1.48 million, and 1.49 million barrels week-on-week [4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 959, 463, and 164 thousand barrels per day, with increases of 24, 4, and decreases of 7 thousand barrels per day, respectively [5] Refined Product Demand and Trade - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 845, 385, and 172 thousand barrels per day, with no change in gasoline, a decrease of 39 thousand barrels per day in diesel, and an increase of 3 thousand barrels per day in jet fuel [6] - Gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 80, 1.21 million, and 1.14 million barrels per day, with changes of -30, +190, and +230 thousand barrels per day, respectively [6] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended for investment include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, and others [6]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 943.00 CNY per gram, with a decline of 4.89%, reaching a high of 966.64 CNY and a low of 933.08 CNY [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bearish [1] Group 2 - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S.-Russia relations regarding the Ukraine conflict, adds uncertainty to the market [3] - President Trump has expressed no intention to hold a "meaningless meeting" with President Putin, emphasizing the need to freeze the current front lines as a key condition for a ceasefire [3] - The Kremlin has rejected Trump's proposal, indicating that the anticipated second summit is now uncertain [3] - Despite Trump's hope for a ceasefire, his overall assessment of the conflict is pessimistic, which may negatively impact global market risk appetite [3] - Russia reiterated its peace conditions through diplomatic channels, reflecting the complex geopolitical factors influencing market sentiment [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 1000 CNY and 1030 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 929 CNY and 940 CNY per gram [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the weekly data of the oil and petrochemical industry, including the price, inventory, supply, demand, and import - export of crude oil and refined oil, as well as the performance of the oil and petrochemical sector and related listed companies. It also provides data on the oil service sector. The international oil price has declined, and the report presents detailed data changes in various aspects of the oil market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Price**: Brent/WTI crude oil futures had weekly average prices of $62.0/$58.3 per barrel, down $3.0 each from the previous week. Russian Urals was at $58.6 per barrel, down $2.2, and ESPO was at $61.0 per barrel with no change [2][9]. - **Inventory**: US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.2/4.1/0.2 billion barrels, with week - on - week changes of +428/+352/+76/ - 70 million barrels respectively [2]. - **Production**: US crude oil production was 13.64 million barrels per day, up 0.1 million barrels per day. The number of active crude oil rigs was 418, unchanged, and the number of active fracturing fleets was 175, also unchanged [2]. - **Demand**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.13 million barrels per day, down 1.17 million barrels per day, and the refinery crude oil utilization rate was 85.7%, down 6.7 percentage points [2]. - **Import and Export**: US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 5.53/4.47/1.06 million barrels per day, with week - on - week changes of - 0.88/+0.88/ - 1.75 million barrels per day respectively [2]. 3.2 This Week's Oil and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Sector Performance**: The report shows the performance of the oil and petrochemical sector and its sub - industries, including the decline in the oil and gas exploration, refining and trading, and oil service engineering sub - sectors [15][18]. - **Listed Company Performance**: The report provides the valuation data of related listed companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation, PetroChina, Sinopec, etc. [9]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Price**: Analyzes the price and price difference of various crude oils, such as Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and ESPO, and their relationship with the US dollar index and LME copper price [9][30][33]. - **Inventory**: Studies the inventory of US crude oil, including total inventory, commercial inventory, strategic inventory, and Cushing inventory, and their relationship with oil prices [42][47][52]. - **Supply**: Focuses on US crude oil production, the number of oil rigs, and fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices [59][61][63]. - **Demand**: Analyzes the crude oil processing volume and utilization rate of US refineries, as well as the utilization rate of Chinese refineries [67][69][72]. - **Import and Export**: Tracks the import, export, and net import volume of US crude oil and petroleum products [78][80][81]. 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Price**: Analyzes the price and price difference of refined oils such as gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US, China, Europe, and Singapore, and their relationship with crude oil prices [87][90][114]. - **Inventory**: Monitors the inventory of refined oils in the US and Singapore, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [128][132][137]. - **Supply**: Focuses on the production of refined oils in the US, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [145]. - **Demand**: Analyzes the consumption of refined oils in the US, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene, and the number of airport security checks for passengers [148][150][154]. - **Import and Export**: Tracks the import, export, and net export volume of refined oils in the US, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [157][161][163]. 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [172][176][177]. 3.6 Recommended Listed Companies Recommended companies include CNOOC/China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina/PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec/China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Development Co., Ltd. (600968.SH). Companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical & Electrical Equipment Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - **Options trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - **Geopolitical factors**: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - **Macro and market sentiment**: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - **US EIA inventory data**: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - **India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion**: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the fuel oil futures showed a downward trend after breaking through support levels, with overall trading sentiment being bearish. Affected by the significant decline in the international crude oil market and the weakening of the fundamental supply - demand structure, the price center of fuel oil futures has clearly shifted downward. The main trading logic this week revolved around increased global supply, slowing demand growth, and weakened cost support. Meanwhile, macro - risk events such as the "shutdown" of the US federal government further intensified market concerns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market:** The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,781 yuan/ton this week, down 86 yuan/ton or 3% from the settlement price of the previous trading week. The highest price this week was 2,835 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,776 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 775,015 lots, and the open interest was 230,600 lots, a decrease of 4,649 lots [3] - **Variety Price:** The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data:** The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week. The current basis level is in the lower range of recent months, indicating that the spot market faces greater price pressure compared to the futures market. The low basis level reflects that the spot market is more resistant to declines than the futures market and also shows the futures market's pessimistic expectation of the long - term fundamentals [9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts:** This week, the changes in the fuel oil warehouse receipt data on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were limited, remaining generally stable. The low level of warehouse receipts helps reduce the physical delivery pressure on the futures market and provides some support for the prices of near - month contracts [11][12] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information:** The benchmark price of fuel oil is 5,363 yuan/ton, down nearly 2.1% compared to the beginning of this month. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST is 433 US dollars/ton, down 3.8% compared to the beginning of this month [13] 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the fuel oil market is expected to be mainly driven by geopolitical factors and crude oil costs. In terms of international supply, OPEC+ plans to expand the production increase scale in November, and the resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region of Iraq, combined with the increased inflow of goods after the end of the summer electricity peak in the Middle East, clearly indicate an abundant supply pattern in the Asian fuel oil market. In the future, close attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, the Fed's monetary policy (interest rate cut expectations), geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations that may affect the fuel oil market [14]

Core Insights - The report by Beijing Yihe International Information Consulting Co., Ltd. provides a comprehensive analysis of the sulfur recovery market, focusing on global and Chinese markets, aiming to support decision-making for market participants [1][9] - The audience for the report includes policymakers, investors, industry analysts, researchers, and corporate management, highlighting its broad applicability for strategic planning and investment decisions [4] Market Dynamics - Major players in the sulfur recovery market include large chemical companies, environmental protection firms, and waste management companies, leveraging advanced technologies to drive industry growth [6] - The sulfur recovery industry chain encompasses multiple stages, including raw material supply, production processing, market sales, and after-sales services, with upstream supply heavily reliant on oil and gas production [6] Growth Projections - The sulfur recovery market is expected to maintain a positive growth trend, with an average annual growth rate projected until 2025, particularly in China due to the implementation of environmental policies and rising industry standards [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in driving industry growth, particularly new waste recovery technologies that can lower production costs and enhance product quality [7] Challenges and Competition - The market faces challenges such as intensified competition from new entrants, which complicates the market environment, and the need for continuous innovation in quality and technology to remain competitive [7] - Regulatory policies play a crucial role in market stability, necessitating that companies closely monitor policy developments to adjust their business strategies accordingly [7] Geopolitical Influences - The sulfur recovery market is increasingly affected by geopolitical factors, including policy changes, trade tensions, and uneven resource distribution, which can lead to fluctuations in raw material prices [8] - Different regional markets exhibit diverse demand patterns, with North America and Europe seeing rising demand due to stricter environmental regulations, while the Asia-Pacific region, especially China, experiences significant demand growth driven by rapid industrialization [8] Policy Environment in China - China's policy environment significantly impacts the sulfur recovery industry, with recent government initiatives promoting resource recovery and circular economy practices, providing a favorable framework for market growth [9] - Companies are encouraged to engage with policy developments actively to leverage potential benefits from regulatory changes [9]