中国经济网深圳12月18日讯 12月14日，由平安期货、平安证券联合主办的 2026 全球交易者大会暨 中国平安第七届全国期货实盘大赛颁奖典礼，在深圳福田举行。 本次大会，有近500位交易者从全国各地赶来，齐聚在此，只为寻找一束确定的光，全球交易者大 会也一直致力于帮助众多交易者完成一场从孤军奋战到协同进化的深层蜕变。平安期货总经理袁建峰指 出，平安期货始终坚守"以客户为中心"的初心，在市场环境变化中践行有温度的风险管理服务，以专业 服务助力交易者行稳致远，践行为客户创造价值的承诺。 当时代浪潮裹挟速度加快，平安期货也将肩负起风险识别、风险管理、风险应对的责任担当，打造 客户信赖首选的智慧衍生品服务，为居民财富管理与实体经济发展提供更精准、更有力的"金融力量"。 平安基金权益投资基金经理周思聪表示，在第四次科技革命深入演进的背景下，AI、算力、半导 体、创新药等领域迎来关键时刻。其中中国创新药行业在技术周期、政策周期和利率环境的三重支撑下 厚积薄发，2026年整个行业依然存在贝塔行情，且个股的阿尔法行情也将起步。 平安期货研究所所长李晨阳结合海内外政治经济格局变化，指出贵金属长期上行格局未改，同时紧 扣 "反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of policies is expected to shift from external trade competition to domestic economic development in 2026, which could positively impact the stock market if economic performance is stable [4][8][9]. Policy Shift - The upcoming year is the first year of the five-year plan, indicating a high probability of significant policy announcements and support for economic growth [8]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with increased fiscal efforts to support domestic economic construction [8]. AI Market Analysis - Current valuations in the U.S. AI market are at historical highs, but conditions for a bubble burst, such as weakened liquidity and high leverage, have not yet been observed, making it premature to discuss a bubble collapse [10][12]. - Despite high valuations, major tech companies continue to show strong cash flow and growth rates, indicating that while a bubble exists, its timing for a potential burst is uncertain [11][12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to allocate 50% of their portfolio to non-U.S. markets due to the peak performance of U.S. stocks and anticipated depreciation of the U.S. dollar [13][15]. - The upcoming change in the U.S. Federal Reserve leadership may lead to more accommodative monetary policies, increasing pressure on the dollar's value [15]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is considered severely undervalued, with recent strengthening indicating the beginning of an appreciation trend, potentially reaching 7.05 against the dollar [16][17]. - The actual exchange rate of the yuan has depreciated by over 25% in recent years, despite strong export performance, suggesting significant room for appreciation [17]. AI Sector Investment - Continued investment in leading Chinese AI companies is recommended, as the technological gap between China and the U.S. is narrowing [18][19]. - The trend of large tech companies transitioning to AI-focused operations is expected to become more pronounced [19]. Commodity Market Outlook - The demand for commodities is anticipated to remain strong due to the resource needs driven by AI development and the economic cycle entering its mid-to-late phase [21][23]. - The performance of precious metals and industrial metals is expected to continue to strengthen, supported by the capital-intensive nature of AI technologies [22][23].

证券日报网讯 12月16日，凌玮科技在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司产品生产用的主要原材料 硅酸钠属于大宗商品，价格受国内外供需市场的影响，其价格上涨会对公司的毛利率造成一定的影响， 但为最大限度地降低硅酸钠价格上涨带来的风险，公司将采取以下应对措施：（1）拓展硅酸钠采购的 备选供应商，降低采购成本；（2）根据市场行情与客户协商调整价格，抵消硅酸钠价格上涨的不利影 响；（3）加强精益管理，优化生产工艺流程，降低生产成本。 （编辑 王雪儿） ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 甲醇：震荡反弹 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,067 | 2,074 | - 7 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,057 | 2,077 | -20 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 1,012,146 | 975,203 | 36943 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 482,389 | 558,910 | -76521 | | 期货市场 | | 仓单 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 合成橡胶：震荡中枢上移 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 期货研究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 10,720 | 10,710 | 10 -31953 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 123,845 | 155,798 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 89,834 | 86,990 | 2844 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 661,588 | 831,987 | -170399 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -70 | -60 | -10 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | （民营） | -110 | -100 | -10 | | 现 ...

摘要周五欧洲早盘，黄金于4265至4264美元区域吸引逢低买盘，价格触及10月21日以来新高。从更广泛 基本面来看，大宗商品整体偏向上行。 当下，交易员正密切关注联邦公开市场委员会有影响力成员的讲话，以期寻找短期交易机会。 周五欧洲早盘，黄金于4265至4264美元区域吸引逢低买盘，价格触及10月21日以来新高。从更广泛基本 面来看，大宗商品整体偏向上行。 现货黄金已强势突破楔形形态，短期涨势或延续至4312-4343美元/盎司。当前与此前上涨波段构成看涨 旗形，目标指向4480美元，保守目标为4343美元。关键支撑在4260美元，失守则可能回撤。日线级别， 黄金突破重要阻力，重返历史高点概率大增。下一步关注4194美元支撑，若失守需警惕回落，否则多头 仍主动。 市场预期美联储2026年将进一步降息，致使美元维持在周四接近两个月低位的弱势状态，这对不生息的 黄金构成持续利好。 截至北京时间16:24，现货黄金报4295美元/盎司，日内涨0.32%。 同时，俄乌和平谈判停滞，地缘政治风险依旧存在，成为推动避险黄金连续第四日走高的又一因素。 不过，股市整体积极的基调或抑制黄金多头激进押注，限制其进一步上涨空间。尽 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尚无驱动，低位盘整 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 10 日 【行情分析】 大宗商品行情回暖，尿素高开低走后日内偏强。现货报价涨跌互现，市场 价格受期货走向影响，低价收单有转好。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿 素出厂报价范围多在 1630-1680 元/吨，低端价格在河南地区。基本面来看，上 游装置停车与复产并存，气头装置依旧在陆续减产停产中，日产数据尚未有明 显大幅减少。下游冬储肥及出口订单陆续走货，保持稳定需求增量。复合肥工 厂目前新单成交不畅，原料价格上涨之下，利润受挤压，发运前期订单为主。 本周预计开工负荷将继续回升，但目前已接近近年同期的开工高点，回升空间 不足，后续对尿素支撑以稳为主。本期库存继续去化，环比去化 4.36%，目前 的供需逻辑相对紧平衡，预计短期内库存依旧呈现去化趋势。宏观视角暂无明 显提振，微观基本面尚有韧性，短期偏强，关注美联储议息对大宗商品的影 响。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1650 元/吨开盘,高开低走，日内震荡偏强， 最终收于 1645 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅+0.06%，持仓量 142791 手（-7855 手）。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 9, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and many other commodities like coke, fuel oil, and SC crude oil also had significant declines. On the other hand, polysilicon rose over 3%, and some commodities such as live pigs and fiberboard had gains over 1%. Different futures varieties showed various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market news [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 9, domestic futures main contracts were mostly down. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and commodities like coke, fuel oil, SC crude oil, etc., dropped over 2%. In terms of gains, polysilicon rose over 3%, and live pigs, fiberboard, and container shipping to Europe routes rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026 due to low copper concentrate processing fees. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, some smelters are under maintenance, and production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut meeting, market sentiment is cautious [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. The news of Nigeria's mining suspension had little impact on the fundamentals. In November, production continued to grow, and it is expected to increase by about 3% in December. Downstream production growth has slowed, and the inventory reduction process has slowed down. It is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and some countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, and US oil inventories have increased. The US is at a high - production level. Geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Libya may cause supply disruptions. The market is worried about demand, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. It is expected to trade in a low - level range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: Last week, the operating rate increased slightly, and December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries is at a low level. Crude oil prices are weak, and it is expected that asphalt futures prices will trade in a weak range [13]. - **PP**: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period. On December 9, the enterprise operating rate increased, and the production ratio of standard products rose. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [14][15]. - **Plastic**: On December 9, the operating rate increased. As of December 5, the downstream operating rate decreased. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. India's policy changes have limited impact, and export orders have decreased. Social inventories are high, and it is expected to trade in a weak range [18]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened low and closed low, dropping over 2% on the day. The price of some spot products decreased. At the end of the year, imported coal impacts the domestic market. Coal production is at a high level, but some factories may reduce production. Inventories are not well - transferred, and the iron - water output decreased. The market is in a weak state [19][20]. - **Urea**: Opened low and closed low, trading weakly on the day. Spot prices are stable on the surface but decreasing in reality. The supply of gas - based plants decreased, and the cost support is weak. Downstream demand is not strong, and the inventory reduction rate will slow down. The market has some support from exports and winter storage [21].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have retreated from historical highs as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, focusing on potential hawkish signals from policymakers [1] Group 1: Market Trends - LME copper prices experienced a decline of 1.7% [1] - Year-to-date, LME copper prices have increased by over 30% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday [1] - Any indications that the pace of rate cuts will slow down in 2026 could negatively impact risk assets, including commodities [1]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国地产基金百人会） 著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，12月4日在接受彭博社以及日前和CNBC的对话中，谈及了美 联储降息、人民币汇率、AI科技等话题，并且对2026年的市场行情进行了展望。 洪灝指出，无论谁接任美联储主席，都将面临回购市场流动性紧张的局面，因此降息并扩表是必然选 择。 市场预期未来一年将有多次降息， 贵金属价格已反映宽松预期，他预测白银可能涨至80-100美元/盎司。 对于如火如荼的AI产业，洪灝则指出了一则风险，如果企业依赖信贷融资进行资本支出将是未来一个 潜在问题。 洪灝表示，美元处于长期下行趋势，大宗商品将因美元走弱和通胀预期保持强势。 人民币实际有效汇率被低估，有望升值至6.9以下，带动中国资产重估，明年A股可能表现优于H股。 此外，房地产市场调整已持续近五年，但行业仍需时间出清，救助规模或需约10万亿元。 展望2026年，洪灝表示，明年作为五年规划首年，政策支持力度可能加大，流动性环境改善，中国市场 或有望上涨20%以上。 投资报（liulishidian）整理精选了洪灝分享的精华内容如下： 无论谁出任美联储主席 降息并扩表是必然选择 主持人：围绕美联储 ...