美国信用评级下调，黄金反弹陷入震荡，期市本周方向怎么看？期货资深研究员Leo将分析当前黄金、 原油及其他热门期货品种的市场行情，洞察品种基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播间。 相关链接 金十期货正在直播 ...

周四，据智通财经，伊朗最高领袖顾问称，伊朗愿承诺永不制造核武，换取美解除制裁，油价跌超3%。继韩国讨论外汇政策后， 日本在野党列出美日贸易谈判筹码，美元跌而日元涨。 另外，由于市场预期中美贸易休战后经济前景改善，美联储降息时间将晚于预期，美债收益率因此攀升，30年期美债收益率逼近 5%大关，10年期美债收益率升破4.5%关口。美债收益率高企，打压大宗商品，金银铜集体跌超1%。 大宗商品方面，WTI原油日内跌幅超3%，报60.60美元/桶；布伦特原油日内跌幅超3%，报63.97美元/桶。 地缘政治局势趋缓、美债收益率高企，打压大宗商品，金银铜油集体下挫。另外贸易谈判乐观进展也削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。 现货黄金周三跌逾2%后延续跌势，周四再跌逾1%至3150美元下方，创下一个多月以来的最低水平。 欧股开盘下跌。 印度股市维持涨势，特朗普称，印度此前提出取消对美国的所有关税。 美债收益率走低。 美油和布油均跌超3%。现货黄、现货银、伦铜、纽铜均跌超1%。 美元指数跌约0.3%，美元兑日元跌约0.7%，日本在野党列出美日贸易谈判筹码，即买美债、进口日企在美生产的 汽车。 英国经济第一季环比增长0.7%，为四个季度最佳 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

晨报 成材 成材：需求偏低迷 钢价冲高回落 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：上周（5 月 5 日-5 月 11 日），10 个重点城市新建商品房成交 （签约）面积总计 145.48 万平方米，环比增长 13.2%，同比下降 17.7%。 奥维云网线上市场监测数据显示，4 月白电各品类中，冰箱、冰柜、洗衣 机、独立式干衣机和空调线上零售额规模同比分别为+1.0%、-0.8%、 +10.8%、+45.0%和+34.8%。5 月 13 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平 均成本为 3334 元/吨，日环比增加 8 元/吨，平均利润为-87 元/吨，谷电 利润为 18 元/吨，日环比增加 12 元/吨。5 月 13 日，唐山迁安普方坯资 源出厂含税下调 20，报 2950。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日冲高回落。5 月 12 日，中美"日内瓦经贸联合声明"的发 布在宏观层面上形成利好，大宗 ...

Core Insights - UBS's high-net-worth clients are increasingly withdrawing from dollar assets and shifting towards gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese assets [1] - The tension in US-China trade relations is prompting investors to diversify their previously "US-centric" asset allocations [1] - There is a notable increase in investments in alternative assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies as volatility is expected to persist [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Commodities may continue to move in a volatile manner with differentiated trends among varieties. Favorable factors include China's introduction of a package of policy measures to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and improve domestic demand, and the China - US high - level economic and trade negotiations easing market concerns. Unfavorable factors are the Fed's possible continued wait - and - see stance, complex overseas geopolitical factors, and increased risks of crude oil production increase due to internal disagreements within OPEC+ [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART ONE: Main Views - **Commodities Outlook**: The start of high - level economic and trade negotiations between China and the US can ease market concerns, but the Fed's new stage of assessing "dual risks", complex overseas geopolitical situations, and OPEC+ internal disagreements pose challenges to the overall commodity trend [3]. - **Influencing Factors and Logic**: This week, domestic commodities continued to fluctuate, with industrial products oscillating and agricultural products weakening slightly. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, and the US economy showed a "strong service, weak manufacturing" structure with a record - high trade deficit. Domestically, a package of financial policies was introduced to support the economy, and the domestic consumer market remained resilient during the May Day holiday [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Fed Policy**: On May 7, the Fed announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, with unchanged balance - sheet reduction. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see stance in the short term as the key to US economic growth and inflation lies in tariff policies [4][8]. - **Economic Data**: The US April ISM services PMI was 51.6, while the manufacturing PMI contracted for two consecutive months to 48.7. In March 2025, the US trade deficit was $140.5 billion, a 14.0% month - on - month increase, highlighting the structural contradictions in US trade policies [4][11][12]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Consumer Market**: During the 2025 May Day holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous, with the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year. Domestic consumption, especially service consumption, remained resilient [4][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: On May 7, a package of macro - monetary policies was announced, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. These policies are expected to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and support long - term economic transformation. The April domestic manufacturing PMI fell back to the contraction range due to external demand contraction [4][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of May 9, PTA factory, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively. The 30 - day moving average of vehicle manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales showed certain growth rates [29][35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: As of May 9, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index showed certain trends [37].

大宗商品方面，国际金价大跌。现货黄金向下触及3260美元/盎司，日内跌2%。 今日，离岸人民币盘中突然拉升。美元对离岸人民币汇率一度跌逾200点，随后跌幅有所收窄，截至 9:36报7.2289。 美股期货开盘上涨并持续走高，纳斯达克100指数期货涨逾2%，标普500指数期货涨1.4%，道指期货 涨1%。 ...

金十期货正在直播 鲍威尔多次强调观望，黄金高位震荡，商品期货下一步怎么走？期货资深研究员Leo将分析当前黄金及 其他热门期货品种的市场行情，洞察品种基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播间。 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is influencing the gold market, leading to fluctuations in prices as traders seek opportunities in futures markets [1] Group 1 - The live analysis by a senior futures researcher, Leo, will focus on the current market trends for gold and other popular futures commodities [1] - Insights will be provided on the fundamental aspects of these commodities and their future price movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on the current state of the gold market, with a specific mention of gold bulls returning to a price level of 3350, and an analysis of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting's impact on commodity futures [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The live broadcast will feature insights from a senior futures researcher, Leo, who will analyze the current market trends for gold and other popular futures [1] - The discussion will include an examination of the fundamental aspects of futures commodities and a forecast of the future direction of the commodity market [1]