▲这是在广州番禺广汽智联新能源产业园拍摄的埃安智慧产线（2025年2月24日摄）。图/新华社 据新华社报道，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 会议指出，未来要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，保 持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国际 双循环，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 面对复杂多变的国内外经济环境，本次会议在延续以往"保持政策连续性和稳定性"的同时，明确提出 要"增强灵活性和预见性"，并强调宏观政策要"适时加力"，这一系列新提法，为理解下半年经济工作的 核心思路提供了重要线索，也为应对经济运行中的不确定性提供了更具前瞻性的政策框架。 整体来看，"稳"依然是基本盘。无论是政策的连续性稳定性，还是着力"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期"，都表明宏观决策的底座依然是牢固和坚实的。 但与此同时，随着外部政治经济环境的不确定性加剧、国内结构性矛盾依然存在，多重压力交织下，仅 有"稳"已不足以应对所有挑战。因此，政策工具箱中新增的"灵活性"与"预见性"，便 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that while the Chinese economy is stabilizing, persistent low prices are dragging down nominal economic growth, widening the gap between macro and micro economic conditions [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a year-on-year growth rate around 0% for 27 consecutive months, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, marking 33 months of negative growth [1] - The GDP deflator has recorded negative year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters, surpassing the seven quarters of negative growth during the 1998 Asian financial crisis [1] Causes of Low Prices - The low price environment is attributed to the pains of transitioning from old to new economic drivers. While the impact of durable goods and rental prices on CPI has eased, weakened income expectations are constraining service consumption growth, preventing a virtuous cycle of consumption expansion, price increase, and wage growth [1] - Supply fluctuations, weak domestic demand, and shrinking external demand are increasing downward pressure on PPI, particularly in midstream chemical products and downstream essential consumer goods [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests five key recommendations to address the low price situation, including increasing nominal fiscal deficit rates, implementing inflation-targeted monetary policies, and stabilizing real estate prices to mitigate liquidity risks for major property firms [2] - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing service consumption to alleviate persistent low prices, as service consumption tends to exhibit differentiated supply expansion and price increases, unlike the homogeneous supply of general goods [2][4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of macroeconomic regulation will be on strengthening the coordination of fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security policies to promote economic supply-demand balance and reasonable price recovery [4] - It advocates for the inclusion of a broad price index, covering general prices (CPI, PPI, and GDP deflator) and asset prices (housing and stock prices), into macroeconomic regulation targets, and encourages the use of unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment policies [4]

积极发挥财政政策推动发展"进"的关键作用。持续强化对教育和科技的支持，上半年教育、科学技术支 出同比增长5.9%、9.1%；完善各项惠企助企政策；进一步完善横向生态保护补偿机制……今年以来， 财政更加着力"增后劲"，推动高质量发展"成色"更足。当前，"十五五"规划正在谋划，要更加聚焦经济 社会发展的薄弱领域和关键环节，更加注重提升未来潜在增长率，优化财政政策供给，加强财政政策储 备，为高质量发展提供更加给力的"真金白银"和政策保障。 推动财政政策效能充分释放，还要加强政策协同、形成工作合力。加强财政政策与货币、就业、产业、 区域等政策的协同联动，这样才能"五指成拳"形成合力，放大政策叠加效应。要统筹财政政策与其他政 策制定和执行的全过程，提升政策目标、工具、时机、力度、节奏的匹配度，确保同向发力。各级相关 部门应加强沟通对接，确保把准政策意图，靶向精准施策，让政策落实"最后一公里"和政策制定"最先 一公里"更好贯通起来。 财政政策是宏观调控的关键工具。近年来，在世界经济复苏乏力的大背景下，财政政策在很多国家宏观 调控工具箱中的主体地位日益凸显，成为推动经济行稳致远的关键手段。 积极发挥财政政策护航经济"稳"的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive waiting; Treasury bonds - take profit, expect a weakening trend [6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - expect a strong - side oscillation; Coking coal and coke - expect an oscillatory trend [8][9][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - mainly wait and see; Nickel - short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [13][14][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - expect an oscillatory trend; Soda ash - try short positions with light positions; Caustic soda - expect an oscillatory trend; Styrene - expect an oscillatory trend; Rubber - expect a strong - side oscillation; Urea - expect an oscillatory trend; Methanol - expect an oscillatory trend; Polyolefins - expect a wide - range oscillation [21][23][25] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - expect a strong - side oscillation; Apples - expect a strong - side oscillation; Jujubes - expect a strong - side oscillation [33][34][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - expect a strong - side oscillation; Oils - expect a strong - side oscillation [37][39][42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different futures sectors are expected to have different trends, with some in an oscillatory state, some showing a strong - side or weak - side trend, and investors are advised to make corresponding trading decisions according to different situations [6][8][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index**: Affected by factors such as the US Treasury's borrowing plan, bond auctions, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and domestic policies, the index is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see defensively [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". Attention should be paid to whether subsequent policies can boost demand. It is recommended to take profit, and the market is expected to weaken [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the price drop on Monday, the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. Considering macro - policies and industrial supply - demand, it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - policies and supply - demand, the price has adjusted downward. Although there are concerns about future supply surplus, the current support from the steel and coal markets is still strong, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has a slow supply recovery and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand balance. Both are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally [10][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, domestic consumption seasons, and economic recovery expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [13] - **Aluminum**: Due to changes in the price and supply of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Nickel**: With an oversupply in the long - term and weakening support at the mine end, it is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Although the supply - demand gap is improving, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to have support and is recommended for range trading [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by trade negotiations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven market, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [21][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slow growth rate. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract may have support in the peak season. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is favorable. It is expected to oscillate [26] - **Rubber**: Affected by raw material prices, inventory, and macro - emotions, the price is expected to oscillate strongly after a short - term decline [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory pattern is neutral. It is expected to be weak first and then strong [29] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to face a certain correction [30] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by macro - emotions and cost factors, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the price range of different contracts [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: After the price increase, the inventory has shifted to the middle - stream, and the price is over - estimated. It is recommended to try short positions with light positions [32][33] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the supply - demand relationship has changed. Affected by market sentiment and supply - demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly [33] - **Apples**: With low inventory, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in a high - level range [34][35] - **Jujubes**: Affected by the growth situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short - term [35] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: With supply - demand pressure, the short - term is near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts and wait and see for the far - month contracts, and consider arbitrage opportunities [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand may increase seasonally, but the long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts and wait for buying opportunities for the far - month contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the mid - long - term supply is tightening. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by weather and supply - demand, and the mid - long - term has a supply gap. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as palm oil production and export, soybean growth, and rapeseed supply, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant role of fiscal policy in macroeconomic regulation, particularly in the context of a sluggish global economic recovery, highlighting its importance in stabilizing the economy [1][2] - In the first half of the year, national general public budget expenditure exceeded 14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with social security and employment expenditure reaching 2.4504 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The fiscal policy has shifted from "active" to "more active," with increased intensity and scale, including over 2 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds issued and 162 billion yuan allocated for long-term special government bond funds to promote consumption [1] Group 2 - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing support for education and technology, with expenditures in these areas growing by 5.9% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The fiscal policy aims to focus on weak areas and key links in economic and social development, optimizing fiscal policy supply to provide substantial financial and policy support for high-quality development [2] - The effectiveness of fiscal policy will be enhanced through better coordination with monetary, employment, industrial, and regional policies, ensuring a cohesive approach to policy implementation [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant narrowing of the trade deficit between China and the U.S. following the Geneva high-level economic talks, with a notable increase in export growth rates and a slight uptick in import growth due to base effects [1][2][3]. Export Analysis - In June 2025, China's total exports reached $325.18 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point rise from the previous month [1][3]. - The decline in exports to the U.S. has significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.13%, an improvement of 18.39 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - Exports to ASEAN countries continued to grow rapidly, while traditional export categories saw declines, with integrated circuits and automobiles showing strong growth [5][6]. Import Analysis - China's total imports in June 2025 amounted to $210.41 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, reversing from negative growth due to base effects [2][6]. - Imports from the U.S. decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, but this decline was 2.6 percentage points less than the previous month [2][6]. - The import growth rates from Japan and ASEAN were positive, while imports from traditional bulk commodities continued to face challenges [7]. Future Outlook - The external environment for trade is expected to remain complex and volatile, with potential risks and opportunities for export growth in 2025 [8]. - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges from the real estate market and global trade barriers may persist [8].

Group 1 - The current market is characterized as a "slow bull" phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3500 points, indicating a lack of potential for a "crazy bull" market [1][2][8] - The market is in the sixth cycle since 2005, showing a disconnection between the Shanghai Composite Index and macroeconomic short cycles, reflecting a weak macroeconomic backdrop [10][20] - The management is actively working to prevent a repeat of the brief "crazy bull" markets seen in 2006-2007 and 2014-2015, which could lead to prolonged bear markets [10][20] Group 2 - The outlook for 2025 suggests a prolonged "slow bull" market, with a focus on time over height, influenced by long-term capital inflows, particularly in dividend-related sectors like banking and insurance [4][20] - The investment logic for upstream industries is challenging due to weak PPI, while downstream industries are expected to perform better, aligning with domestic consumption policies [4][20] - The consumer sector may face significant differentiation, with new consumption segments likely to attract more capital, depending on the strength of policy support [20][21] Group 3 - The 2025 market is expected to operate under a combination of the new "National Nine Articles" and a "four trillion" investment trend, with a high probability of a "slow bull" market [21] - Key areas of focus for 2025 include technology, green initiatives, consumption, and infrastructure, as highlighted in the government work report [21] - The market is anticipated to experience slight upward fluctuations in July, supported by long-term capital inflows, particularly in dividend sectors [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Liu Yuanchun emphasizes the need for macroeconomic governance to incorporate a new dimension of "coordinating macro regulation with micro governance" to address the issue of "involution" in competition, thereby solidifying the micro foundation for high-quality development [1][2] - The primary concern of the current macroeconomic environment is the persistently low price levels, which are influenced by both structural issues on the demand side, such as the decline in real estate investment, and complex supply-side shocks [1] - A significant supply shock driven by technological advancements and economies of scale has been observed, with labor productivity in China increasing by nearly 90% over the past decade, and costs for new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells significantly decreasing [1] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "involution" in pricing has led to a decline in corporate profit margins, with many industries experiencing worsening financial indicators despite technological upgrades, resulting in a situation where costs decrease but profits decline even faster [1][2] - To address the challenges of low prices and "involution," a comprehensive initiation of micro governance is necessary, shifting from a reliance on industry self-discipline to a new model of "government-led, industry-coordinated, and enterprise-implemented" policies [2] - The "2025 China Macroeconomic Situation Analysis and Forecast Mid-Year Report" highlights that the main short-term contradiction in China's macroeconomic operation is the imbalance between supply and demand, which has spread from the production side to the demand side, impacting key areas such as the labor market and real estate market [2]

他表示，我国的产业政策长期优先于竞争政策，进而导致一定的微观层面失序，因此，目前正处于一个 时代的拐点，就是产业政策必须重新定位，让竞争政策走到舞台中央，形成宏观调控与微观治理协同发 力的新格局。 当前工业行业普遍存在"成本下降，但利润下降得更快"的现象。针对这一困境，要破解低价与"内卷"现 象，必须全面启动微观治理。 7月5日上海财经大学举行的2025中国宏观经济年中论坛上，刘元春表达了上述观点。他表示，中国的微 观治理有两大类政策： 一是产业政策，二是竞争政策。我国的产业政策长期优先于竞争政策，进而导 致一定的微观层面失序，因此，目前正处于一个时代的拐点，就是产业政策必须重新定位，让竞争政策 走到舞台中央，形成宏观调控与微观治理协同发力的新格局。 "反内卷"已经成为我国政策的工作重点。2024年7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议，首次提出要强化 行业自律，防止"内卷式"恶性竞争。 2024年底召开的中央经济工作会议提出五个"必须统筹"，也就是必须统筹好五个关系，包括有效市场和 有为政府、总供给和总需求、培育新动能和更新旧动能、做优增量和盘活存量、提升质量和做大总量。 刘元春建议，宏观经济治理要在当前五个统 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a long-term mechanism to stimulate consumption, shifting from subsidy-driven approaches to institutional innovation [8] - It highlights the importance of reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to boost marginal consumption tendencies [8] Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The article emphasizes the transition from subsidies to institutional innovations as a means to create a sustainable consumption stimulus mechanism [8] - It suggests that continuous efforts to reduce financial burdens and enhance income for residents are fundamental to improving consumption [8] Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about the potential rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.6%, analyzing the implications of tariffs and the associated risks of economic downturns [11] - It discusses the inflationary effects of tariffs and the upward risks of employment weakening, indicating a need for vigilance in economic policy [11] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article reports on the Senate's passage of the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to lead to a new round of fiscal easing in the U.S. [13] - It provides a detailed breakdown of the fiscal implications of the act, including various tax cuts and their projected impacts on the budget [14] Group 4: Economic Policy Insights - The second quarter monetary policy committee meeting highlighted the need for continued support for the real estate market and key sectors [15] - The meeting concluded that macroeconomic adjustments should focus on maintaining stable economic growth and reasonable price levels, with an emphasis on flexible monetary policy [15] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The June PMI data indicates a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, although corporate expectations have declined [17] - The article suggests that while the overall economic environment shows improvement, attention should be paid to changes in microeconomic expectations [17] Group 6: International Trade Developments - The article notes that the U.S. has officially signed a trade agreement with China, which may have significant implications for international trade dynamics [19]