| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...

区域宏观经济观察及信用债分析系列专题之二 地方经济发展有什么抓手 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 梁克淳 | | 执业证书： S0590525110038 | | | 邮箱： | liangkechun@glms.com.cn | 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国家部委为今年地方经济发展提供"充足弹药"：央行、财政部、发改委持续在政 策端发力、在资金端提供协同支持，目标就是为了更好激励地方政府积极落实与 "投资于物、投资于人"相关的项目建设，并秉持"因地制宜"原则而做好有效 投资；鼓励有较好就业基础、技术实力、出口优势的各类企业持续经营、扩大规 模，带动重点产业链及上下游产业发展，形成"产业集群"而保证当地居民连续 就业与区域经济稳健发展。与此同时，发改委正在研究制定"2026-2030 年扩大 内需战略实施方案"与"研究设立国家级并购基金"，或将利于地方政府使用地方 产业基金来布局更多新质生产力， ...

在外需承压的背景下，内需成为稳经济的"压舱石"。数据显示，2025年，广东举办了1800多场各类促消费活动，"广东优品购"带动销售超600亿元；广东省 重点建设项目1500个，全年完成投资11816亿元。 强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托。坚持扩大内需这一战略基点，广东坚持将惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，从供给端和需求端协 同发力，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，使内需成为广东拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 ●南方日报记者 宾红霞 唐子湉 昌道励 广东着力全方位扩大内需，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动。 "粤"过山海，"沪"唤而来。前不久，广东特色农产品进上海营销活动、"媒体+"广货行天下——广东年菜进上海营销行动在上海举办。而此前，"广货行天下 粤味贺岁来"广东特色农产品进北京营销活动在北京举行。这个春节，"广货"行遍祖国大地，为马年增添一番岭南风味。 2026年，"广货行天下"打响了广东消费"开门红"的第一炮。从家喻户晓的"广东粮、珠江水、岭南衣、粤家电"到圈粉全球的无人机、新能源车、潮玩文 创，"广货行天下"将广东的产业优势转化为市场胜势，推动广东积极参与国内国际双循环，在国家 ...

Economic Outlook - The 2026 National People's Congress (NPC) is expected to set the economic growth target at around 5%[9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target for 2026 is anticipated to remain at approximately 2%[9] - The fiscal deficit rate is likely to be maintained at around 4%[12] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions depending on economic growth and inflation trends[15] - The central bank's actions in 2025 included a 0.1 percentage point cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the RRR[15] Domestic Demand and Innovation - Expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are prioritized government tasks for 2026[16] - The government aims to promote technological innovation and the development of artificial intelligence as key focuses for the year[22] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, a downturn in the real estate market, and escalating geopolitical tensions[36]

本报告导读： 中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升与地 产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | | | 黄维驰(分析师) | | | 021-38032684 | | | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | ...

●贺立龙 强大国内市场是推进中国式现代化的战略依托。当前我国内需扩张的内涵发生深刻变化，亟须推动消费 结构优化和动力升级，不断形成扩大内需的新增长点。 人民至上引领的新内需动能 坚持人民至上，是"十五五"时期经济社会发展必须遵循的一项原则。《建议》强调，注重在发展中保障 和改善民生，在满足民生需求中拓展发展空间。内需扩容升级，本质上是人民美好生活需要的有形投射 与具象化满足。人民对更优质教育、更可靠医疗、更舒适居住、更丰富文化生活的向往，是内需扩张的 根本源泉。扩大内需必须与加大保障和改善民生力度同向而行。促进高质量充分就业，办好人民满意的 教育，切实提高居民可支配收入水平等，将为内需增长筑就坚实微观基础。 绿色转型催生的新投资赛道 习近平总书记指出，"绿水青山就是金山银山"。在"双碳"目标下，人民群众的绿色环境需求与国家层面 的能源安全要求，共同推动绿色转型从成本约束全面转向增长引擎，并催生出兼具巨大社会价值与长期 资本回报的新投资赛道。绿色新增长点的核心在于对传统能源系统和生产模式的系统性替代与升级。其 中，新型储能是解决新能源消纳难题、保障电网安全的关键环节。据国家能源局数据，截至2024年底， 全国已 ...

【导读】春节假期有奖发票"火了"，多地公布领奖情况 这个春节假期，有奖发票"火了"！ 近期，基金君在多个社交平台上发现，有大量网友晒出自己在各个平台有奖发票的中奖"成绩单"。 基金君在第一时间按照网友攻略试水，分别在微信、支付宝、银联云闪付三个渠道进行了三次抽奖，"战绩"分别为30元、50元、50元，中奖率颇高。还没 参加的朋友，可以赶紧试试。 此外，也有不少网友晒出自己的"中奖心得"及攻略，包括平台选择、城市选择、抽奖时段、发票金额等。 值得一提的是，除了线下消费获取发票外，消费者日常在各大平台、App上的消费记录，大多可通过补开发票的方式参与抽奖，大大提高了抽奖的频次和 效率。 另外，目前各大平台多将有奖发票活动置于首页或搜索关键字前列，消费者可轻易找到参与入口。 近期，多地政府部门陆续公布当地发放"红包"情况。例如，据合肥市商务局数据，截至2月17日，当地累计中奖用户数397280人，中奖发票张数为2094077 张，发放红包金额5945.51万元，有效提升了用户获得感与活动吸引力。 绍兴商务数据显示，2月14日—2月18日，市民累计上传发票近70万张，共领取奖金超848万元。 目前，主要参与平台有银联 ...

Core Insights - The "Lucky Invoice" initiative gained significant popularity during the Spring Festival, with many users sharing their winning experiences on social media [1][17] - Various platforms, including WeChat, Alipay, and UnionPay, have been utilized for participating in the lucky draw, showing a high winning rate [7][23] - The initiative aims to stimulate consumer spending and enhance user engagement through cash prizes and incentives [12][16] Summary by Sections Participation and Platforms - Consumers can participate in the lucky draw by uploading invoices from both offline and online purchases, increasing the frequency and efficiency of participation [9][25] - Major platforms involved include UnionPay, Douyin, JD.com, Alipay, and WeChat, with easy access to the "Lucky Invoice" section [9][25] Government and Economic Impact - Local governments have reported substantial engagement, with cities like Hefei reporting 397,280 winners and a total prize distribution of 59.45 million yuan by February 17 [12][28] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to boost consumption, with the central government allocating 100 billion yuan in subsidies over six months, including over 1 billion yuan during the Spring Festival [16][32] Policy and Implementation - The program is being piloted in approximately 50 cities, with specific guidelines on minimum invoice amounts and prize distributions set by local authorities [13][29] - The initiative is expected to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate economic recovery during a critical period for the market [16][32]

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are focusing on domestic demand and AI-driven sectors as key investment opportunities in the current market environment, with a particular emphasis on consumer sectors and technology applications [1][2][4]. Group 1: Domestic Demand Focus - Fund managers are optimistic about the domestic consumption sector, highlighting a potential turning point driven by the release of household wealth and an upgrade in high-end consumption and service demand [2][7]. - The investment strategy emphasizes identifying companies benefiting from domestic demand expansion and those showing profit recovery amid a "de-involution" backdrop, which could significantly influence market indices [2][7]. - Traditional industries, such as liquor and real estate, are being closely monitored for potential investment opportunities, especially as some real estate companies show signs of recovery [2][7][8]. Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The recovery and expansion of offline commercial sectors are seen as critical investment themes, supported by a stable online-to-offline market transition and lower commercial real estate rents [3][8]. - High-end consumer goods, particularly in outdoor sports and cosmetics, are gaining traction, with domestic brands showing competitive advantages through innovation and market understanding [3][8]. - The international expansion of Chinese consumer brands is shifting from price competitiveness to cultural and service-based differentiation, enhancing their global appeal [3][8]. Group 3: AI and Technology Sector - AI remains a crucial structural investment direction, with expectations for significant applications in hardware and software, particularly in consumer electronics and robotics [4][9]. - The ongoing technological advancements and increased capital expenditure from major players are expected to sustain the momentum in the tech sector through 2026 [4][9]. - Investment opportunities in AI applications, smart driving, and semiconductors are anticipated to grow, despite potential market fluctuations [4][9].

Core Insights - The central economic work meeting in December 2025 emphasized the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" for economic work in 2026, with Guangdong launching the "Guangdong Goods Going Global" spring initiative to enhance the visibility and influence of local products [1] Group 1: Current Status of "Guangdong Goods" - The concept of "Guangdong Goods" has evolved from traditional products to include modern innovations such as drones, electric vehicles, and 5G smartphones, while traditional products like clothing and furniture have undergone brand rejuvenation [1] - Guangdong's foreign trade reached a record high of 9.49 trillion RMB in 2025, accounting for 20.9% of the national total and contributing 24.1% to national foreign trade growth [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of "Guangdong Goods" - The national open policy has provided a fundamental guarantee for the international expansion of "Guangdong Goods," aligning with central government initiatives to boost consumption and supply quality products [3] - Guangdong's manufacturing system has shown resilience amid global economic adjustments, with over 530 local enterprises participating in international trade exhibitions, highlighting their significant role in the global supply chain [3] Group 3: Strategies for Advancement - Improving product quality is essential, focusing on establishing a comprehensive quality control system and fostering "champion" enterprises in niche markets to create differentiated competitive advantages [4] - Reducing product costs through supply chain collaboration, digital transformation, and leveraging economies of scale is crucial for enhancing competitiveness [5] - Enhancing after-sales service systems to provide comprehensive support and improve brand loyalty in global markets is a priority [5] Group 4: Environmental and Market Expansion Strategies - Emphasizing green transformation to align with international environmental standards and promote sustainable development in manufacturing is vital [7] - Expanding international markets by integrating Lingnan culture into product design and marketing strategies can enhance global competitiveness [8]