Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical turmoil overseas has led to the selling of US assets, and the situation remains unclear, causing the market's risk - aversion sentiment to rise [2][4] - The domestic A - share market is in a stage where the management actively cools down the market to consolidate the foundation for a slow - bull market. With abundant domestic funds, there is no risk of a systematic crisis [4] - During the annual report performance disclosure period, industries with industrial support, policy catalysts, and performance support should be selected. Attention should be paid to the technology and cyclical industries. In the technology sector, AI, power, energy storage, robots, computing power, and storage are recommended; in the cyclical sector, chemicals and non - ferrous metals are recommended. The index has support in the range of 4000 - 4050, and the subsequent direction is expected to be upward [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - Trump listed 365 achievements at the press conference on the first anniversary of his return to the White House, compared himself to Buffett through his wife, considered "taking back" the Panama Canal, refused to attend the G7 meeting in Paris, and considered involving Machado in Venezuelan affairs. He also claimed that the US would have no trade deficit next year and proposed to replace the "Peace Committee" at the UN [6] - The European Parliament froze the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement [7] - The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, which will increase its gold reserves to 700 tons [8] - The US Supreme Court did not rule on the challenge to Trump's global tariff legitimacy, and the next ruling window is in a month [8] - Regarding the Greenland issue, Canada's military simulated a US "military invasion" scenario, Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, the US planned to cut about 200 NATO - related positions, a Danish pension fund announced to liquidate US Treasury bonds, and Trump P - mapped Greenland, Canada, and Venezuela into the US territory [8] - He Lifeng attended the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting and visited Switzerland [9] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it had received an invitation from the US to join the "Peace Committee" [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [11] - Shanghai released an action plan to strengthen the linkage between futures and spot markets and enhance the level of non - ferrous metal commodities [12] - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance implemented an interest subsidy policy for loans to small, medium, and micro enterprises [13] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Price Performance**: The prices of major stock index futures contracts generally showed a downward trend. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.33%, and the corresponding futures contracts IF2602, IF2603, IF2606, and IF2609 all declined, with the decline ranging from 0.32% to 0.47% [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of various futures contracts changed to different degrees. For example, the trading volume of the CSI 500 futures contracts increased by 47,043 lots, and the open interest increased by 12,541 lots [16] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Index Performance**: On Tuesday, the broader market showed a volatile trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.79%. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, real estate, transportation, and building decoration led the gains, while communication, military industry, computer, and power equipment also had certain increases [3] - **Market Style Impact**: Different market styles had different impacts on major indexes. For example, in the Shanghai 50 index, the cyclical style had a daily contribution of - 0.02%, and the financial style had a daily contribution of 0.20% [37] - **Valuation Situation**: The report presented the valuation and historical quantile data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, which can help investors understand the market's valuation level and position [39][42] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which can reflect the market's liquidity situation [50]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. With low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure, the short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain weak, but there is a risk of an oversold rebound. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises, as well as the production reduction of caustic soda producers [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Analysis - From January 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the alumina start - up rate increased by 0.09% week - on - week to 85.83%. From January 9th to 15th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 88.43% week - on - week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 58.76% [1] - As of January 15th, the factory warehouse inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 512,100 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.41% and a year - on - year increase of 99.64% [1] - The caustic soda purchase price of Weiqiao has been continuously reduced. Since January 18th, it has been reduced by 15 yuan, with an ex - factory price of 630 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance have implemented an interest - subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro - enterprises' loans, established a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extended the implementation period of the fiscal interest - subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is currently in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. The short - term decline is due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons. The futures price has hit new lows, and the short - term supply - demand is weak, but an oversold rebound should be guarded against. The main downstream alumina has rebounded recently, and the electrolytic aluminum industry is operating stably. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises, as well as the production reduction of caustic soda producers [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The futures market of methanol maintains a volatile trend, and the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily - level has not been effectively broken. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities after a decline. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, and it is prone to a low - level rebound. Attention should be paid to the changes in sentiment due to frequent macro news [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 96,900 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in South China decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory this week was mainly due to the small total unloading volume, with 96,100 tons of explicit outer - ship unloading and 125,000 tons of non - explicit inclusion. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while that in other social storage areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to less unloading. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased with a small amount of imports and domestic trade arrivals and stable提货 in the mainstream storage areas. In Fujian, with imports and domestic trade supplementing the supply and downstream consumption on - demand, the inventory fluctuated little [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. Multiple departments including the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small, medium and micro enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest - subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market of methanol maintains a volatile trend, and the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily - level needs to be focused on in the short term. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter, and buying opportunities after a decline can be appropriately paid attention to. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state and is prone to a low - level rebound. Attention should be paid to the changes in sentiment due to frequent macro news [3].

扩大设备更新贷款财政贴息政策支持范围、制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计划……1月20日， 一系列旨在激发经济发展动力活力的政策密集发布，释放出鲜明信号：坚定发展信心，主动作为、锐意 进取，确保实现"十五五"开好局、起好步。 一路行来，中国经济穿越惊涛骇浪，实现新的跨越。"十四五"圆满收官，"十五五"着墨起笔。 不断成长壮大的超大规模市场，夯筑起中国经济应对变局、开拓新局的坚实底气。以优化支持范围、补 贴标准和实施机制为重点，2026年"两新"政策在元旦前就已发布，首批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消 费品以旧换新资金也已下达，有望更好释放政策效能，激活超大规模市场活力潜力。 加快发展新质生产力，是抢占新一轮科技革命和产业变革的制胜之举。1月7日，《"人工智能+制造"专 项行动实施意见》对外发布，围绕创新筑基、赋智升级等7项重点任务推出一系列具体措施。时隔9天， 1月16日，《优质中小企业梯度培育管理办法》修订发布，将科技型中小企业纳入优质中小企业梯度培 育范围，引导企业持续提升发展质量。 经济发展是供给和需求相互作用、共同推动的过程。制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案、研 究设立国家级并购基金 ...

新华社北京1月21日电 题："十五五"开局之年，中国经济在夯基蓄势中砥砺奋进 新华社记者魏玉坤 扩大设备更新贷款财政贴息政策支持范围、制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计划……1月20 日，一系列旨在激发经济发展动力活力的政策密集发布，释放出鲜明信号：坚定发展信心，主动作为、 锐意进取，确保实现"十五五"开好局、起好步。 一路行来，中国经济穿越惊涛骇浪，实现新的跨越。"十四五"圆满收官，"十五五"着墨起笔。 站在承前启后的历史交汇点上，习近平总书记为做好"十五五"开局之年经济工作指明方向：我们要 坚定信心、用好优势、应对挑战，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 历史车轮滚滚向前，其时已至，其势已成。"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全 面发力的关键时期。2026年是"十五五"开局之年，良好的开局就是成功的一半。 开年以来，政策"组合拳"因势推出，目标指向明晰：既着眼解决供强需弱的突出矛盾，也重在塑造 竞争合作新优势，变发展潜能为新的动能，变科技成果为新的经济增量，在夯基蓄势中推动高质量发 展。 宏观政策贵在精准有效。从优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策、出台规模5000亿元的民间投资专 项担保计划，到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but due to the long upper shadow line of the closing K - line, there is a risk of correction. The short - term trend of styrene is strong, but also with a long upper shadow line at the close, and it is necessary to be cautious of a correction. Overall, a cautious bullish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes due to frequent macro news [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The 300,000 - ton/year styrene plant of Tangshan Xuyang had a malfunction and stopped production. The inventory is mainly for contract delivery, and there is no external quotation for now [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.12% to 74.26% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 4.07% to 57.59% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the weighted operating rate of the downstream of pure benzene increased by 2.14% to 74.50% [1] - As of January 19th, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 8.33% compared with last week [1] - From January 9th to 15th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but due to the long upper shadow line of the closing K - line, there is a risk of correction [3] - The short - term trend of styrene is strong, but also with a long upper shadow line at the close, and it is necessary to be cautious of a correction. It has just broken through the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line and then pulled back. The trend near the pressure level should be continuously monitored, and an overall cautious bullish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes due to frequent macro news [3]

全年经济总量迈上140万亿元新台阶、制造业增加值连续16年位居全球第一、年末常住人口城镇化率比 上年提高0.89个百分点……2025年,我国交出一份高质量的发展答卷。 新的一年,如何落实中央经济工作会议精神,推动"十五五"实现良好开局?国务院新闻办公室1月20日举行 新闻发布会,国家发展改革委相关负责人回答记者提问。 谋划推进一批 标志性引领性重大工程 "经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成,经济运行稳中有进,发展韧性进一步彰显,民生政策更有温度,交出了一 份高质量答卷。"在总结过去一年经济发展成果时,国家发展改革委副主任王昌林这样概括。 "展望2026年,我们认为消费与投资、科技与产业、城乡与区域都将释放出巨大的发展潜能。"国家发展 改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈说。 从点上看,新技术新产品新场景蔚然成势。周陈表示,我国新能源、新材料、航空航天等新的经济增长点 正在蓄势待发。"目前我们正在谋划推进一批'十五五'时期的高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程。"周陈 说。 坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上。王昌林表示,要坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向,推动重点 产业提质升级,大力培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业,深入开展"人工智能 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1129.00 | +5.00↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1683.50 | +10.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 649591.00 | -15352.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 40095.00 | -134.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -86396.00 | +23778.00↑ ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,286 | +10↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1449160 | -36985↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -12,725 | +1177↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, supply - side开工率and production decline, manganese ore port inventory slightly accumulates, silicon - manganese inventory decreases but remains high; demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types drops, and steel mill hot metal production declines. Cost support weakens, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. [2] - For silicon - iron, the fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, both at low levels in the same period, and the inventory is neutral. With the support of semi - coke, it is relatively resistant to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价is 5,786.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价is 5,556.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量is 613,881.00 hands, up 15,542.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量is 410,165.00 hands, up 1,189.00 hands. [2] - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 12,303.00 hands, down 1,024.00 hands; Silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 27,919.00 hands, up 697.00 hands. [2] - SM5 - 3月合约价差is 38.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF4 - 3月合约价差is - 12.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan. [2] - SM仓单is 35,895.00 sheets, down 248.00 sheets; SF仓单is 0.00 sheets, down 10,007.00 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,370.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan. [2] - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,300.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. [2] - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly) is 5,735.00 yuan/ton, up 9.17 yuan; SF主力合约基差 (daily) is - 256.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan. [2] - SM主力合约基差 (daily) is - 116.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of South African high - iron manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 31.55 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) is 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The average price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 36.45 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.30 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) is 820.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly) is 421.80 million tons, up 4.30 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 36.06%, down 0.75%; silicon - iron enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 29.21%, down 0.42%. [2] - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly) is 190,575.00 tons, down 455.00 tons; silicon - iron supply (weekly) is 98,700.00 tons, down 400.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 372,800.00 tons, down 9,700.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 63,750.00 tons, down 5,160.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.52 days, down 0.32 days; silicon - iron national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.41 days, down 0.39 days. [2] - The demand for manganese - silicon in five major steel types (weekly) is 115,815.00 tons, down 84.00 tons; the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (weekly) is 18,481.70 tons, down 27.10 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 78.84%, down 0.47%; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 85.48%, down 0.56%. [2] - Crude steel production (monthly) is 6,818.00 million tons, down 169.10 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and crack down on low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. [2] - Mysteel: A steel mill in East China has tendered for silicon - manganese at a price of 5,830 yuan/ton, with a cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 5,720 yuan in Jiangsu and 5,650 yuan in Tianjin. [2]