黄金白银双双崩塌：市场为何大跳水？ 去年年底，黄金还创下了历史新高，大家都觉得金银能保值，避险情绪特别浓郁。可是到一月底，行情突然变了样。短短两天，黄金和白银的价格猛然下 跌，直接刷新了几十年来最大单日跌幅纪录。 有人说，是因为全球经济状况不佳；也有人认为，大国之间的博弈越发激烈，导致避险资产的泡沫堆积到了极限。不过仔细观察时间点，就发现怪事情正发 生在1月30号那天。 就在这天，特朗普一锤定音，提名沃什做下一届美联储主席。外界普遍觉得他偏向于降息和缩表，也就是说让流动性再次大量涌入市场，狠狠收割贵金属泡 沫里的"韭菜"。 尤其是那些在美国本土的华尔街机构，早就谋划好了，趁着亚洲和欧洲还在睡觉的时候，悄悄抛售黄金，发起了突袭。 此刻，大部分亚洲、欧洲的银行体系都还在休市，散户和中小机构根本没有时间做出反应。等到第二天一早醒来，黄金价格已经跌得一塌糊涂，很多散户那 些点点本金和利润也跟着归零了。 你得知道，这可是相当于美国GDP的一半摆布，突然就没了。背后操盘的人是谁？特朗普！他刚宣布要换美联储主席，金融圈一时间都炸了锅。 新提名的那位一直倡导降息、缩减资产负债表，一消息一出，华尔街立即响应，趁着亚洲客户休市的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of reduced geopolitical tensions and resilient U.S. economic data, which has diminished safe-haven demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, spot gold has dropped by 2.4% to $4848.9 per ounce, previously falling over 3.6% below $4800 per ounce; spot silver has decreased by 14.14% to $76.146 per ounce, having plummeted over 17% below $74 per ounce [1] - Last Friday marked the beginning of a significant downturn, with silver prices crashing by 26%, the largest drop in history, while gold fell by 9%, representing the worst single-day performance in nearly a decade [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. economic data to watch includes JOLTS job openings and initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31 [1] - The strengthening U.S. dollar and stable U.S. Treasury yields have also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 3: Influential Factors - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump has been identified as a catalyst for market panic, as Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on inflation and support for quicker interest rate cuts [1] - Warsh's views on excessive quantitative easing and support for balance sheet reduction may influence the narrative around de-dollarization and fiat currency proliferation [1] Group 4: Historical Context - Historical analysis indicates that significant price increases in gold typically require around six months to digest, with the current rapid price increases leading to a necessary correction to alleviate overbought conditions [2] - The report highlights that gold experienced 55 record highs in the previous year and surged over 20% in less than a month at the start of this year, indicating an unsustainable rate of increase [2]

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 报道 在美股财报季关键时刻，科技股承受的压力尤为显著。 截至美国东部时间2月4日收盘，标普500指数收跌0.51%，报6882.72点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.51%，报 22904.58点，连续两日下跌后，纳指跌破100日均线；道琼斯工业平均指数涨0.53%，报49501.3点。 对于这一轮科技股抛售，软件板块的暴跌尤为显眼，英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋批驳称，软件产品是 工具，人工智能会使用这些工具，而不是重新发明它们。 可以确认的是，在科技股持续大涨过后，未来其他领域或有更好表现。沃尔夫研究首席投资策略师克里 斯·塞涅克提醒，市场正剧烈翻涌：一方面，投资者担忧美国企业在人工智能上的资本开支；另一方 面，又在与另一种"希望与憧憬"博弈——美国经济韧性可能推动市场行情从少数板块向更广泛领域扩 散。 尽管美股经历了连续三年大涨，已经处于历史高位，但市场仍然愿意给那些业绩优秀的公司良好的反 馈。 高盛策略师Ben Snider统计发现，在已发布2026年每股盈利预测的标普500指数成分股公司中，超过半数 公司给出的预测都高于分析师预期。这一比例也超过了历史平均水平40%。 但需要 ...

随着凯文·沃什被提名出任下一届美联储主席，"沃什时代"的货币政策走向成为全球市场焦点，市场此前对 降息的乐观预期正逐步降温。近日，又一位美联储高官公开释放鹰派信号，暗示不支持过早启动降息进 程，核心担忧在于当前通胀仍有粘性，过早宽松可能导致通胀反弹。这一表态进一步凸显，"沃什时代"的 降息之路注定困难重重，美联储在通胀与经济增长之间的平衡愈发艰难，市场多空博弈持续升温。 此外，政治压力与市场现实也构成双重制约。美国总统特朗普持续施压美联储，要求快速降息以提振经 济、助力选情，降低联邦政府债务利息支出，但沃什始终强调美联储的独立性，不愿因政治诉求牺牲通胀 控制目标。同时，当前美债规模高企，若贸然降息，可能削弱美元信用、引发资本外流，而缩表与降息的 并行，更可能加剧市场流动性波动，进一步增加降息的实操难度。 市场各方对"沃什时代"的降息前景分歧显著，中立呈现多元博弈态势。乐观派认为，随着通胀持续降温， 核心CPI逐步逼近目标，美联储内部分歧将逐步缓解，沃什可能调整政策节奏，在年内启动温和降息，以 应对经济增长压力；部分机构则预期，若就业市场出现恶化，降息窗口可能提前打开。 谨慎派则与发声高官观点一致，认为通胀粘性 ...

据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1113.78元/克，下跌0.64%。 国际黄金价格报5037.0美元/盎司，上涨1.74%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 全球监管收紧杠杆压制短期投机 作者：观察君 芝商所将黄金期货保证金从6%上调至8%，直接触发多头强制平仓，引发"下跌-平仓"恶性循环放大跌 幅。国内同步收紧相关业务规则，银行上调积存金门槛、实施动态限额，交易所调整保证金比例与涨跌 停板，挤压高杠杆投机空间，短期投机资金集中出逃加剧了本轮金价巨震。 央行购金与去美元化托底长期价值 全球央行持续大规模购金，中国央行连续14个月增持，68%受访央行明确2026年将继续加仓，叠加全球 去美元化提速，黄金储备市值首次超过美债规模。德意志银行维持金价冲击6000美元/盎司的看涨预 期，机构普遍认为短期回调不改长期牛市逻辑，基本面支撑未发生本质变化。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 美联储主席提名引发预期反复 美联储前理事沃什被提名为新主席后，市场初期过度解读其鹰派倾向，担忧其推动缩 ...

中信证券研报称，虽然沃什2025年多次提及降息+缩表的政策方向，但考虑到1月美国资金市场流动性 压力才明显有所缓解，当前准备金占GDP比重仍为10%左右，美联储持有资产占GDP比重为20%左右， 已接近疫情前2018年的水平，整体准备金充裕程度有限。若沃什担任下一任美联储主席，且若沃什上台 后快速启动缩表，届时美国资金市场或将再次面临流动性压力问题，因而整体而言，我们认为当前美国 金融市场环境不具备缩表的条件。 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The general trend of inflation narrative remains unchanged, and the current sharp decline in precious metals does not change this trend [1][2] - Domestic policies clearly promote inflation, and the global geopolitical situation remains tense, which may drive up inflation [2] - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations, and different commodity sectors have different investment opportunities and risks [3] Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and the market priced in the "review of Fed independence", causing silver to fall by over 30% and gold to fall by 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980 [1] - The core driver overseas is Trump's policies, with the core appeal of nominating Warsh being to cut interest rates, lower credit card rates, and boost the real estate market [1] - Fed Governor Milan said the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year [1][5] Inflation and Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized measures to boost consumption and regulate "involution - style" competition [2] - On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [2] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued 5 important policy documents to support various types of loans [2] - On February 3, 2026, the Central No. 1 Document was released to promote rural revitalization [2][5] Geopolitical and Trade - Trump said negotiations on Greenland are about to reach an agreement [2] - On February 2, Trump announced that the US and India had reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18%, and India reducing tariffs and non - tariff barriers to zero and promising to buy over $500 billion worth of US energy products [2][5] - Trump said the US is negotiating with Iran, and the Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor said a "negotiation framework" is taking shape [3][5] Commodity Analysis - The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unrelieved, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment [3] - OPEC+ plans to keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, with Trump hoping to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [3] - In the chemical sector, methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [3] - For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases; for the black sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on precious metals at low prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump signals a clear shift towards a hawkish monetary policy, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, pausing rate cuts for several meetings and adhering to a data-driven decision-making framework [1] - Warsh's past tenure emphasizes inflation control and monetary policy independence, contrasting with the dovish stance of some current Fed members [2] - If confirmed, Warsh is likely to refocus the Fed on dual objectives of inflation and employment, potentially accelerating balance sheet reduction and delaying rate cuts until mid-2026 [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The hawkish expectations have strengthened the US dollar, which has regained key resistance levels, while commodity and emerging market currencies face depreciation pressures [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields have risen, reflecting market concerns over persistent inflation and tightening policies, although the yield curve inversion has eased somewhat [3] - Commodity markets show divergence, with gold prices weakening under the dual pressure of a strong dollar and rising real interest rates, while oil prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and demand concerns [3] Group 3: Capital Flows and Global Impact - Global capital is flowing back to the US market, increasing pressure on emerging markets facing capital outflows and potential debt default risks due to currency depreciation [4] - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and strong differentiation among asset classes, with investor risk appetite shrinking [4] - The future direction of Fed policy will depend on key variables, including core inflation trends, US economic data performance, the Senate confirmation process for Warsh, and liquidity constraints from balance sheet reduction [4] Group 4: Outlook - Until the Fed's policy framework is fully clarified, markets will continue to navigate the dynamics of balance sheet reduction and rate cut expectations, with a strong dollar likely to persist [5] - Investors should monitor Fed policy developments and US economic data closely to mitigate risks associated with emerging market currencies and debt, while seizing opportunities in dollar and safe-haven assets [5] - Central banks worldwide need to prepare for policy adjustments to address challenges from capital flows and currency volatility, ensuring financial stability [5]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 港股 2 月投资策略 优于大市 预计沃什的缩表交易不会持续，继续看好春季行情 3、消费领域：消费板块估值处于过去十年 1%分位数，市场预期过低且 后续有持续的改善空间，该板块的胜在稳健，而且走势相对独立，受国 际局势动荡影响较小； 4、能源：大宗商品的涨价将从贵金属、金属，逐步蔓延到能源、航运 等领域，也值得关注，尤其是能源资产价格尚处在低位，并且可以对冲 地缘局势的不确定性； 5、创新药：创新药业绩平稳，值得继续持有，后续一旦出现新 BD 项目 的释放，板块还有修复空间。 风险提示：地缘政治的不确定性，美国关税政策的不确定性，海外降息 幅度的不确定性，部分行业竞争格局的不确定性。 美国：沃什提名后引发了反向交易。当市场预期全年降息的逻辑过于一致 时，沃什的提名引发了缩表的预期并带来了美元指数的反弹。我们认为 当下为此担忧还尚早，由于美国上半年的时薪、消费、就业压力均较大，且 上半年通胀的压力不大，故而降息的必要性依然较高；另外，关于缩表的更 多信息要到 5 月份主席换届之后才将逐渐清晰。 今年 1 月份，美股上涨幅度显著小于新兴市场，因此我们认为将美元指数的 反弹看 ...

Group 1 - The latest price of London gold is 1131.77 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of 28.69 yuan, or 2.60%, compared to the previous trading day [1] - The opening price for the day was 1102.94 yuan per gram, with a daily high of 1134.28 yuan and a low of 1094.88 yuan [1] Group 2 - Mizuho Securities highlights that Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve Chair, advocates for reducing the central bank's balance sheet, which may require a more interventionist approach in daily monetary market operations [2] - The current reserve levels are nearing their limits, and a reduction in the balance sheet could lead to issues in the federal funds market, increasing volatility and undermining the Fed's control over short-term interest rates [2] - Warsh's previous tenure at the Fed and his calls for reducing the central bank's financial footprint are noted, with the Fed's asset portfolio having surged from approximately $800 billion two decades ago to a peak of $8.9 trillion in June 2022, before decreasing to $6.6 trillion [2] Group 3 - If the Fed under Warsh continues to reduce its balance sheet, it is suggested to replace the federal funds rate with the overnight repo rate as a key short-term benchmark, which would require more active Fed intervention to stabilize volatility [3] - The recommendation includes encouraging counterparties to utilize the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) more frequently, which allows banks to borrow cash against collateral like U.S. Treasuries [3] Group 4 - Gold experienced a strong rebound on Tuesday, maintaining an upward trend across Asian, European, and American trading sessions, closing with a significant bullish candlestick [4] - A previous trading strategy involved executing a long position at 4912 and closing at 4945 for profit, with the initial target set at breaking the 5000 mark, but the decision was made to secure profits early due to market fluctuations [4] - Despite the recent rebound, the short-term trend remains bearish, indicating that the current rise is merely a corrective move, with expectations of a return to a downward trend once the rebound momentum wanes [4]