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【BCR研究精选】日元走软背后的推手:高企能源成本与迟缓政策节奏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 02:18
能源成本上涨成为本轮日元贬值主因,并进一步削弱通胀承压下市场信心; 1. 中东紧张引发油价上涨,日元应声贬值 尽管中东局势冲击有限,但油价曾一度上涨,使能源进口大国日本的进口成本显著上升,进而成为压亏日元的重 要因素。日元自6月13日以来兑美元下跌2.4%,兑瑞郎也下滑1.4%。 2. 日本能源负担上升,贸易逆差扩大 作为几乎完全依赖进口石油的经济体,日本面对油价上涨时,外汇需求激增,削弱本币市场流动性。同时,国内 能源价格上涨加剧通胀压力,剌激日元处于弱势位置。石油成本上升导致进口全部用日元支付,这削弱了对日元 的正常需求。 3. 加息预期支撑日元,但仍存阻力 1月数据表明日本企业商品价格指数(CGPI)同比增长4.2%,创19个月新高,推动市场预计日本央行可能在5月或 7月调整负利率政策。短线内日元对美元有0.5%升值表现,显示市场对货币政策转向预期正在加温。 但与此同时,美国经济疲软、美元整体承压,美联储仍未释放明确降息信号,使得美元兑日元走势具有一定回弹 空间。此外,日本长期债市波动亦给日元带来不稳定预。 4. 政策干预与市场预期矛盾加剧 美国总统对日元汇率的公开批评,以及潜在对日本施压的货币政策言论 ...
【UNFX课堂】美国2025年6月就业报告解读:劳动力市场温和降温,支持美联储谨慎观望
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 02:18
美国劳工统计局(BLS)于2025年7月3日发布的《6月就业形势报告》显示,美国劳动力市场在年中呈 现出温和增长与基本稳定的态势。 这份报告的核心数据,特别是新增非农就业人数和失业率,为当前宏观经济环境和货币政策前景提供了 新的重要线索。 报告指出,2025年6月美国非农部门新增就业人口为14.7万人。这一数字与过去12个月的月均增长(14.6 万人)基本持平,表明就业增长速度保持在相对稳定的水平,但已显著低于前两年经济强劲复苏时期的 扩张步伐。 在薪资方面,私营非农部门平均时薪环比增长0.2%(8美分),至36.30美元。过去12个月的年化增长率 为3.7%。这一增速较前两年动辄5%以上的高点已明显回落,显示劳动力成本的上涨压力正在缓解,这 对控制通胀而言是一个积极信号。 不过,平均周工作时长略有下降0.1小时至34.2小时,这可能意味着企业对劳动力的总需求有所放缓。 从行业来看,6月的就业增长主要集中在对经济周期敏感度较低的领域,如州政府(特别是教育部门) 和医疗保健。联邦政府就业则继续呈现下降趋势。 其他多数主要行业的就业人数变化不大,这与整体温和的增长步伐相符。 综合来看,这份报告描绘了一个既非过热也 ...
美国6月非农超出预期,打消7月降息预期
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 02:15
热点报告——外汇期货 美国 6 月非农超出预期, 打消 7 月降息预期 | 走势评级: | 美元:震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期: | 2025 年 7 | 月 | 4 日 | ★ 美国 6 月非农超出预期,打消 7 月降息预期: 美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人,超出市场预期的 11 万人,过去 12 个月平均每月新增 14.6 万人,劳动力市场仍未明显恶化。4 月新 增就业人数由 14.7 万上修至 15.8 万,5 月由 13.9 万人上修至 14.4 万人,合计上修 1.6 万人。失业率意外回落至 4.1%,低于市场预期 的 4.3%;时薪环比增速 0.2%,同比增速 3.7%,略低于预期和前 值。数据公布后,美元指数和十年期美债收益率止跌回升,黄金现 货快速下跌,美股高开高走。 分行业而言,新增就业主要来自于:教育和医疗保健(5.1 万),休 闲和酒店业(2 万),政府部门(7.3 万)。裁员人数增加,专业和 商业服务裁员 7000 人,批发业裁员 6600 人,其他服务业裁员 5000 人,联邦政府继续裁员 7000 人,政府裁员的影响继 ...
KVB PRIME:观望就好!美国或将经历“更长时间的高通胀”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 01:13
Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Atlanta Fed President Bostic highlight a cautious approach towards U.S. economic policy amid uncertainty, advocating for patience and a wait-and-see strategy to avoid detrimental adjustments in interest rate policy [1][3]. Economic Policy and Uncertainty - Bostic emphasized that making significant adjustments to monetary policy in the current uncertain environment is unwise, noting that the resilience of the U.S. macroeconomy provides a buffer for policymakers [3]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged this year, indicating a wait for more key economic signals before making decisions [3]. Tariff Policy and Inflation - Bostic is particularly focused on the impact of tariff policies, suggesting that price increases due to tariffs may manifest gradually rather than as a sudden spike, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations over time [4]. - He warned that if his assessment is correct, the U.S. economy could face prolonged high inflation pressures, which would pose significant challenges for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [4]. Labor Market Observations - Despite a positive employment report for June, Bostic noted subtle changes in the labor market, such as a slowdown in hiring, indicating a gradual softening of the labor market [4]. - He strongly advised the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remain patient and wait for clearer economic conditions before making decisions to avoid unnecessary market volatility [4]. Government Debt Concerns - Bostic pointed out that the rising U.S. government debt levels will have significant implications for policymakers, as high debt servicing costs could crowd out resources for other important economic activities [5]. - He highlighted that the recently passed tax and spending bill could increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over ten years, raising concerns about the potential impact on fiscal policy and interest rates [5]. - Bostic expressed worry that if financial markets perceive the U.S. government debt as a rising risk, interest rates may move independently of Federal Reserve policy, creating substantial challenges for monetary policy formulation [5].
美股三大指数齐涨创新高!标普500第七次破纪录,英伟达市值逼近3.9万亿
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-04 01:08
Market Performance - The US stock market experienced strong performance on July 3, with all three major indices rising. The S&P 500 index increased by 51.94 points, or 0.83%, closing at 6279.36 points. The Nasdaq Composite index climbed 207.97 points, or 1.02%, ending at 20601.10 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 344.11 points, or 0.77%, closing at 44828.53 points. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set new closing records, marking the S&P 500's seventh record close of the year and the Nasdaq's fourth record close of the year. Due to the public holiday, the US stock market closed early with relatively light trading volume [1]. Technology Sector - The technology sector was the main driver of the market's rise, with several leading tech stocks recording significant gains. Nvidia's stock price rose by 1.3%, reaching a historic high with a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion. The company briefly surpassed the $3.9 trillion market cap threshold, coming close to Apple's record for the highest global market capitalization. Amazon's stock increased by 1.59%, Microsoft by 1.58%, and Meta Platforms by 0.76%. Apple saw a 0.52% increase, while Alphabet rose by 0.5%. Tesla was an exception in the tech sector, closing down by 0.1% [3]. - Nvidia's strong performance was supported by multiple factors. OpenAI recently announced it would not adopt Google's TPU chips on a large scale and would continue to rely on Nvidia's GPUs and AMD's AI accelerators for its model training and inference work. OpenAI's reasoning was that these two chip manufacturers' products are "performance-validated" and have "existing supply agreements." This statement sent a positive signal to the market, indicating that Nvidia and AMD will remain core suppliers for OpenAI, potentially limiting Google's growth in the AI hardware market share [3]. Employment Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, providing significant support for the stock market. In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000 jobs, far surpassing analysts' expectations of 110,000, representing a 33% increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and increased by 3.7% year-over-year, indicating a moderate wage growth trend that helps alleviate inflationary pressures [4]. - Employment growth showed structural characteristics, with government sector employment increasing by 73,000 jobs, primarily driven by state and local education positions. Healthcare added 39,000 jobs, and social assistance increased by 19,000 jobs. The federal government saw a reduction of 7,000 jobs due to layoffs. Additionally, employment data for the previous two months was revised upward, with April's figures adjusted from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000, totaling an upward revision of 16,000 jobs [4]. - The strong employment data impacted expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Before the data release, traders estimated a 25% probability of a rate cut in July. Following the report, market expectations for a short-term rate cut quickly diminished. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the likelihood of a July rate cut fell to single digits, and the expectation for a 25 basis point cut in September decreased from 74% a week prior to 68% [4].
黄金今日行情走势要点分析(2025.7.4)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 00:55
黄金周四(7月3日)开盘冲高3366附近后受阻回落,在下探3342附近企稳,欧盘前上涨至3363/3364附近受阻转跌。美盘受数据影响急跌下探3311,随后反 弹3338附近受阻回落,尾盘维持在3323-3335区间震荡,日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 1、非农数据对黄金市场的影响 美国6月非农就业数据新增就业岗位14.7万个,远超市场预期的11万个。尽管失业率从4.2%下降至4.1%,但私营部门岗位增幅仅为7.4万个,创下2024年10月 以来最小增幅。受非农数据强劲的影响,黄金在数据后急跌下探3311。 另外,美元和美债收益率上升,削弱了市场对美联储提前降息的预期,进而降低了黄金的吸引力。 2、美联储货币政策路径的重新审视 美联储基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%,非农数据强劲及特朗普政府新政潜在通胀压力,使美联储继续观望可能性加大。美国财长贝森特表示,若美联储近期不 降息,9月可能需更大规模降息应对经济变化,但短期内美联储谨慎态度对黄金利空。 另外,特朗普政府计划秋季寻找美联储主席鲍威尔接替人选,新任主席提名可能带来政策风格转变,加剧货币政策不确定性,影响黄金短期波动。 3、特朗普政策的不确定性加剧市场 ...
6月就业数据远好于预期 2年期美债收益率盘前飙升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 13:36
Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]
Moneta外汇:美国6月就业增长预期放缓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 11:00
www.monetamarkets.com FOREN | INCES | CONNECTITIES | SHIRE CHINE CHINE CHILI Moneta外汇认为,尽管美国劳动力市场过去一年来展现出强劲韧性,但最新市场预期显示,就业增长正面临逐步降温的局面。6月份的非农就业报告即将出 炉,投资者普遍预计新增岗位将有所减少,而失业率可能升至4.3%,创下三年半以来的新高。 R KETA A MONETA i FORE PO H 2:10: RUITD Xtreme Next Ba (@Alti-Asset MONETA A 4 MONETA AN HN 图库提体系 版上最美的图像 Tool, 冲刺激的航空部落 无需交易经营 门槛上手 保局 - 美元静可加入 82 89,00 名世界级信号游,按偶年度交易策略 全面明散据十分流模式,收益看得见统,更安心 般时提交 / 取消订单,自由掌控交易 同时跟单多个糖味,打造多元化投资组合 分散风险,资金配置更安心! 理在就下载 MM APP 发射鼻手邪起, 板松学理交易电热! 日 Moneta外汇表示,从结构来看,这种放缓主要反映出企业在当前经济政策背景下对未来 ...
【BCR市场焦点】加息落幕后的博弈:美元陷入拉锯战
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 07:50
【BCR汇市观察】美元反弹受限?美联储观望期内,多空焦灼再升级 2025年进入下半年,美元指数(DXY)仍在高位区间震荡。尽管美国经济基本面依然稳健,但市场对美联储货币 政策的不确定预期、全球避险资金流向变化,以及各国央行去美元化动作,正在削弱美元的结构性优势。 一、政策博弈加剧 美元涨势趋缓 今年以来,支撑美元的三大因素——相对利差优势、美国经济韧性和避险买盘,正在经历不同程度的挑战。 二、全球货币竞逐 美元独强格局遭挑战 在美元走强时期,其他主要货币的反弹常被视为"技术性修复",但目前的情形已不同。 1. 欧元:通胀顽固,降息步伐料慢于美联储 1. 美联储"按兵不动"削弱加息溢价 自去年12月以来,美联储将利率维持在5.25%~5.5%区间未动,市场此前一度预期年中启动降息。然而,由于通胀 回落速度不及预期,美联储持续释放"耐心观望"信号。 目前联邦基金期货显示,市场押注9月或11月才可能出现首次降息,这削弱了美元的方向性指引。换言之,在降息 落地前,美元难以形成持续上涨动力,但若降息预期落空,美元反而可能因利差优势"续命"。 2. 美国经济数据韧性不再是"护城河" 虽然2025年上半年,美国GDP与非农 ...
秦氏金升:7.3非农前金价涨跌预测,黄金行情走势分析及操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 04:18
然而,4小时走势图暗示金价将触及更高的高点,金价目标是测试下一个斐波那契阻力位3373.50美元/盎司。在盘整阶段 之后,技术指标在积极水平内走高,支撑黄金又一波升势。今日将迎来一月一次的非农数据,鉴于昨日小非农数据爆 消息面解读:四即将发布的6月非农就业报告被认为是评估美国劳动力市场健康状况的关键指标。路透社调查显示,经济 学家预计6月非农就业岗位将增加11万个,低于5月的13.9万个,失业率预计从4.2%小幅上升至4.3%。非农就业报告的重 要性不仅在于其数据本身,还在于其对美联储货币政策路径的指引。就业市场的任何意外表现都可能引发市场剧烈波 动。如果数据继续显示劳动力市场疲软,投资者对降息的信心将进一步增强,金价有望延续涨势。反之,若数据强劲, 美联储可能放缓降息步伐,短期内对金价形成压制。 黄金走势分析:从技术角度来看,现货金有望延续涨势,尽管还需要进一步的确认。在日线图上,金价一直在努力突破 平坦的20日简单移动平均线(SMA),该均线与6月份下滑走势的50%斐波那契回撤位(在3350美元/盎司附近)汇合。100日均 线和200日均线在远低于当前金价的水平维持坚定看涨斜率,而技术指标在中性水平内缺乏 ...