行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月18日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.990 | 112.220 | 112.250 | 112.410 | 0.260 | 0.23 | 119192 | 142795 | -1510 | | TL2606 | 112.170 | 112.520 | 112.500 | 112.630 | 0.330 | 0.29 | 8741 | 21207 | 396 | | TL2609 | 112.060 | 112.280 | 112.290 | 112.420 | 0.230 | 0.21 | 101 | 381 | 25 | | T2603 | 108.005 | 107.990 | 108.010 | ...

强化"投资于人"、坚持内需主导、经济转型持续推进 本报记者 孟珂 2025年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展。党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议召开，为推动高质量发展注入强大 动力。在此背景下，如何看待当前中国经济形势，2026年我国经济又将有哪些核心增长点？《证券日报》采访了八大首席经济 学家进行深入解读。 2025年经济韧性凸显 12月份以来，多家国际机构上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF（国际货币基金组织）预计2025年中国经济增速为5%，较10月 份预测上调0.2个百分点。世界银行预测为4.9%，较6月份预测上调0.4个百分点。 招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛表示，2026年，财政赤字率预计在4.0%至4.2%之间，赤字规模或较2025年温和增加，专 项债额度可能提升至4.5万亿元至4.7万亿元。超长期特别国债延续发行，规模有望在1.5万亿元至1.7万亿元，继续支持"两重"建 设、城市更新与战略性新兴产业布局。广义财政赤字率可能略抬升至9%左右。 中信建投首席经济学家黄文涛表示，2026年赤字率保持不低于4%，广义口径或抬升至8.8%左右，支出端进一步强化"投资 于人"的领域。 分析原因，温彬表示，考虑 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，1 美联储理事沃勒 | | | 表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有 50 至 100 个基点的降息空间，但无需 | | | 急于行动，将以稳步、渐进方式把利率引向中性。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示， | | 铜 | 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面， | | | LME 铜库存增加 325 吨至 166925 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 2130 吨至 414575 吨；SHFE | | | 铜仓单下降 907 吨至 44877 吨；BC 铜下降 797 吨至 6180 吨。日央行会议召开在即，宏 | | | 观存在一定扰动，海外金融市场波动或抑制风险情绪，短线谨慎为上。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2573 元/吨，涨幅 0.9%，持仓减仓 4202 手至 | | | 17.6 万手。沪铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AL2602 收于 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still drags down credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing a moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market is limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle regulation again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. The new regulations for public funds have led to concentrated institutional selling, increasing short - term market volatility [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to reasonable pricing. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical center, suggesting that the market is not pricing in a rate cut next year, and futures are slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a catch - up increase [12]. - In the short term, the demand side remains weak, and the fundamentals still support the bond market. The Fed's faster - than - expected restart of balance - sheet expansion is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. But the expectation of domestic easing has not yet heated up, and the strength of allocation funds is still cautious. The crowded trading in Treasury bond futures may be the main cause of the sharp fluctuations. The continuation of the bond market's strength depends on the persistence of easing sentiment [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: Rumors of loose policies boosted the bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, ignoring the strong stock market [8]. - **Interest rate bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, mostly by about 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.835%, down 1.75bp [9]. - **Funding market**: Tax payment periods had little impact, and the inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The central bank had 1898 billion yuan in open - market maturities and injected 468 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, and funding rates declined slightly. The overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, and the 7 - day rate fell 0.65bp to 1.4423%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Looking back at 2025, "supportive" was the core tone of monetary policy implementation, and it is expected to continue in 2026. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly, and better use structural monetary policy tools to support key areas and weak links of the real economy. It will also explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions [13]. - After the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the general requirement of "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure", the market is highly concerned about the setting of the fiscal deficit ratio for next year. Market institutions and industry insiders generally expect the deficit ratio in 2026 to be no lower than this year's level of 4%. China will continue to implement a more active fiscal policy [13]. - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move", pointed out that insufficient aggregate demand is the prominent contradiction in current economic operations. It is necessary to implement the strategic plan for expanding domestic demand, form a complete domestic demand system, and expand consumer, investment, and financial demands. The key to expanding consumption is to promote employment, improve social security, optimize income distribution, and expand the middle - income group [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury bond futures**: Data on the trading of Treasury bond futures on December 17, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. - **Money market**: Information on the inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate, SHIBOR term structure and trend, etc., was presented, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [23][31]. - **Derivatives market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve were shown, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [36].

"这是央行时隔近三个月再次启用14天逆回购工具，释放出适度宽松货币政策灵活高效的信号。"国家金 融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，可以看出央行意在通过适度的流动性注入，平衡流动性供 需、稳定市场预期，维护年末资金面的平稳有序。 值得注意的是，央行同时开展7天与14天期逆回购，显示出在期限结构上的灵活安排。庞溟表示，面对 年末的流动性环境，央行选择以期限结构调整为抓手，进行"削峰填谷"。这既满足了银行体系因现金投 放、财政收支等因素产生的临时性缺口，也避免了可能引发的资金空转和杠杆攀升。 中国人民银行消息，12月18日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了883亿元7天期逆回购操 作。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1000亿元14天期逆回购操作。 展望后续，庞溟认为，央行将继续以公开市场操作作为主要流动性管理工具，其调控将更突出"精 准"与"有效"。货币政策的重点仍将是为实体经济创造稳定适宜的金融环境，在保持流动性充裕的同 时，着力畅通货币政策传导机制，引导资金更有效率地进入国民经济重点领域和薄弱环节，为经济高质 量发展提供有力支撑。 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.39%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,811.002 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics led the gains, while agriculture, defense, and coal sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as CPO, copper cable high-speed connections, and liquid cooling servers showed significant increases, whereas Hainan Free Trade Zone, horse racing, and ride-hailing concepts experienced declines [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 0.92%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.03%. In contrast, the three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 0.47%, S&P 500 down by 1.16%, and Nasdaq down by 1.81% [2][7] Important News - According to the Securities Times, the "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth and price recovery. This requires maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals to meet the financing needs of the real economy. Market institutions generally expect a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates by approximately 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, in the coming year. Structural tools will focus on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and supporting small and micro enterprises [3][7] - The Ministry of Finance reported that national fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of the year reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, consistent with the growth rate of the previous 10 months. Tax revenue amounted to 16.48 trillion yuan, growing by 1.8%, while securities transaction stamp duty revenue surged by 70.7% to 185.5 billion yuan [3][8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 监管和行业动态： 1、 上海清算所陆续推动兴银理财与中银理财成为首批获得银行间市场利率 衍生品集中清算业务资质的理财公司，标志着此类机构正式以独立主体身份进入该市场，打破 了此前只能通过母行间接参与的局面，为理财行业通过主动利率风险管理来增强产品净值稳定 性奠定了坚实基础。 同业创新动态： 1、宁银理财、兴银理财再度获配"沐曦股份"新股。据沐曦股份12月8日披露的 网下初步配售结果，两家理财公司旗下10只理财产品合计获配4.23万股。2、招银理财近期与中 诚信指数联合推出了"中诚信-招银理财ETF备兑策略指数系列"，具体包含挂钩上证50ETF与沪 深300ETF的两只备兑策略指数。该指数旨在以标准化、可回溯的方式呈现备兑期权策略的风险 收益特征，为市场提供评估备兑策略表现的透明化基准，也为后续相关策略产品的创设奠定了 基础。 收益率表现： 上周（2025.12.8-2025.12.14，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得 1.27%，环比下降1BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,915.00 -95.00 | +70.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +15.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,558.00 -118.00 | +17.00↑ +10.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 293,990.00 | +5157.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 180,426.00 | -10459.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 67,000.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 258,836.00 | -1119.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,882.50 | +7.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 519,600.00 | 0.00 | | | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | - ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 宏观：非农数据喜忧参半，A 股延续缩量下跌 商品日报 20251217 海外方面，美国经济呈现"就业走弱、需求尚稳、通胀黏性犹存"的格局。11 月新增非 农 6.5 万人超市场预期，但失业率升至 4.6%、创四年新高，就业结构明显恶化，全职岗位流 失、兼职就业增加，反映就业质量走弱。需求端方面，10 月核心零售超预期走强，对四季度 增长形成支撑。与此同时，12 月 Markit PMI 回落，制造业与服务业均弱于预期，就业指标 逼近停滞、价格指数显著上行，显示经济动能放缓与通胀压力并存。美股涨跌分化，美元指 数最低回落至 97.8，美债利率下行，金价、铜价窄幅震荡，供给宽松预期推动油价下跌、美 油创 2021 年来新低。 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 国内方面，中央财办表示，明年将把扩大内需置于首要位置，继续实施适度宽松的货币 政策，从供需两端协同稳市场。供给端严控增量、盘活存量，推动收购存量商品房用于保障 性住房等用途，加快去库存，并有序推进"好房子"建设。A 股周二延续缩量调整，两市近 4300 只个股收跌、成交额回落 ...