Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant signs of style switching since November, with traditional value sectors like banks and utilities performing well, while previously strong sectors such as metals, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals have experienced increased volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Style Switching - Historical data indicates that when market valuations are high, style switching tends to occur at year-end, driven by policy, industry trends, and fund reallocation [2]. - Since 2005, there have been five instances of year-end style switching, with four of them shifting towards stable sectors like finance or consumption [2]. - In the current bull market, institutional behavior is likely to dominate style switching, with significant reallocations observed in the third quarter, particularly in the electronics, communication, and power equipment sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior and Profit Taking - The fourth quarter often sees profit-taking pressures on leading sectors, as institutions shift focus from seeking excess returns to locking in profits [3]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, the electronics sector held a 25% share in active equity funds, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) exceeding 40%, marking historical highs [3]. - The potential for structural adjustments is heightened as institutions may face pressure to sell if others begin to realize profits [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook on Technology Sector - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for the technology sector remains positive, with continued value in growth stocks [6]. - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, is expected to enhance liquidity and support growth stock valuations [6]. Group 4: Balanced Investment Strategy - Multiple brokerages recommend a balanced investment strategy for November, favoring traditional value stocks [7]. - There is a noted improvement in capital returns for sectors like non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, and machinery, although these sectors have not attracted significant investor interest [8]. - Recommendations include focusing on upstream resources like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as capital goods and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [8].

Core Insights - The number of new A-share accounts opened in the first ten months of 2025 reached 22.4588 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.57% compared to the same period last year [1][5] - In October 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange reported 2.3099 million new A-share accounts, a decrease of 21.36% from September [2][4] - The increase in institutional investors indicates a maturation of the market, which is expected to enhance pricing efficiency and reduce irrational volatility [1][8] Summary by Category New Account Openings - A total of 22.4588 million new A-share accounts were opened in the first ten months of 2025, compared to 20.3115 million in the same period last year [5] - October 2025 saw 2.3099 million new accounts, down from 2.9372 million in September [2][4] - The number of institutional accounts reached 1.2366 million by the end of October 2025, with 83,800 new institutional accounts opened this year [5][6] Market Trends - The decline in new accounts in October was attributed to fewer trading days due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as market volatility affecting investor sentiment [4][9] - Year-on-year comparison shows a significant drop in new accounts for October 2025, down over 66% from the previous year's surge following the "9.24 market" [4][9] - The A-share market has seen a structural shift, with increased participation from high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors rather than retail investors [9][10] Investor Behavior - The increase in institutional accounts suggests confidence in the A-share market's future, with institutions favoring ETFs and blue-chip stocks, potentially leading to a more stable market driven by fundamentals [7][8] - The influx of new investors is characterized by a more rational approach, which is expected to contribute to the long-term stability of the A-share market [8][9] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of style rotation, with expectations of a balanced market approach in the coming months [10][11]

十一月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-11-05 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 大市研判 上证指数自2025年8月26日之后进入日线级别中枢震荡阶段 10月底的向上突破4000依然属于中枢震荡的一部分，因其后依然会跌回原中枢中 图：上证指数日线走势（2024年9月至2025年10月末） 资料来源：通达信，长江证券研究所 %% research.95579.com 3 大市研判 创业板指自国庆后如期进入周线级别中枢震荡阶段 目前尚未构成向下的一笔 图：创业板指周线走势（2012年至2025年10月末） 资料来源：交易开拓者，长江证券研究所 %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 大市研判 创业板指自国庆后如期进入周线级别中枢震荡阶段 同期进入日线级别中枢震荡阶段，当前看有小M头趋势 图：创业板指日线走势（ ...

Group 1 - The A-shares market opened lower but rebounded, with all three major indices turning positive, driven by strong performance in the electric grid equipment sector and consumer concepts, while semiconductor and quantum technology sectors lagged [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) saw a significant increase in trading activity, with a turnover exceeding 4 billion yuan in the afternoon session, leading its peers. Over the past week, the average daily turnover reached 5.235 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - East Wu Securities suggests a balanced allocation strategy in the short term to navigate market volatility during the style-switching period, while maintaining a positive outlook on growth stocks in the medium to long term due to the ongoing tech growth trend [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF (512050) tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all 35 sub-industries and integrating both value and growth attributes [2] - Compared to the CSI 300, the A500 ETF is overweight in sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, new energy electric equipment, and defense industries, showcasing its natural "barbell" investment characteristic [2]

- The report covers the period from October 27, 2025, to October 31, 2025[2][11] - The market sentiment remains high, with a potential shift towards small-cap stocks due to valuation pressures and performance verification issues in large-cap growth stocks[3][11] - Market style trends indicate a preference for small-cap and value stocks, with decreased volatility in both large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth styles[12][14] - Market structure shows an increase in industry excess return dispersion, a decrease in industry rotation speed, and a decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks[12][14] - Trading concentration has decreased, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume share declining and the top 5 industries' trading volume share remaining stable[12][14] - Market activity has seen an increase in volatility and mixed performance in turnover rates[13][14] - Commodity market trends show an increase in trend strength for non-ferrous metals and energy chemicals, a decrease in basis momentum across all sectors, and an increase in volatility except for agricultural products[26][33] - Option market analysis indicates stable implied volatility levels for SSE 50 and CSI 1000, with an increase in put option skewness and a decrease in call option skewness for CSI 1000, suggesting heightened risk hedging by market participants[37][38] - Convertible bond market shows a slight recovery, with stable and rising premium rates for bonds convertible at par and a rebound in the proportion of low premium convertible bonds[39][41]

Core Insights - The Ping An Shanghai Stock Exchange Dividend Low Volatility Index A (020456) has shown a strong performance with a year-to-date return of 5.86%, ranking it in the top half of comparable funds [2] - The fund has a maximum drawdown of 6.70% over the past year, which is the lowest among its peers [2] - The fund's net asset value reached 1.13 yuan, marking a 0.84% increase from the previous trading day, achieving a one-month high [1] Fund Performance - The fund has recorded a total net inflow of 120.57 billion yuan over the past four days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 54.40 billion yuan [1] - The average daily net inflow over the last four days is 30.14 billion yuan [1] - Since its inception, the fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 11.16% and an average monthly return of 3.63% [1] Investment Strategy - The fund aims to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error relative to its benchmark, which is a combination of the Shanghai Dividend Low Volatility Index and a bank deposit rate [4] - The fund's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, resulting in a total fee rate of 0.60% [4] - The fund closely tracks the Shanghai Dividend Low Volatility Index, which selects 50 securities with good liquidity and stable dividend payments [4] Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the fund account for 28.67% of the total portfolio, with significant positions in China COSCO Shipping, COFCO Sugar, and others [4][6] - The largest holding is China COSCO Shipping, representing 6.07% of the net asset value [6]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a slight rise at the opening but began to decline, with over 3600 stocks closing lower; A500ETF fell by 0.94% with a trading volume of 4.827 billion yuan, ranking first in comparable metrics [1] - The banking sector showed resilience, with stocks like China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Industrial Bank rising over 2% [1] - The central bank took measures to stabilize liquidity, announcing a 700 billion yuan three-month reverse repurchase operation on November 5, and had already injected 117.5 billion yuan through a seven-day reverse repurchase on November 4 at a rate of 1.40% [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities anticipates that the market may not easily break through the psychological barrier of 4000 points due to a macroeconomic and performance vacuum, suggesting a "time for space" strategy [2] - November is highlighted as a critical window for style switching, with historical trends indicating that mainline sectors with high deviation in holdings during Q3 often perform weakly in November [2] - The chief analyst recommends a balanced allocation to navigate the volatility during the style switching period, while maintaining a positive outlook on growth stocks in the medium to long term, especially with the onset of a rate-cutting cycle in the US [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong rebound in the third quarter, leading to improved investor sentiment and profitability, with over 55% of surveyed investors reporting gains [6][7][24] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from below 3500 points to close at 3882.78 points by September 30, marking a cumulative increase of 12.73% for the quarter [7] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw even larger gains, increasing by 29.25% and 50.4% respectively [7] Investor Sentiment - 55% of investors reported profitability in Q3, an increase of 7 percentage points from Q2 and 13 percentage points from Q1 [7][8] - Over 70% of surveyed investors are optimistic about the A-share market in Q4, with many expecting the Shanghai Composite Index to reach around 3900 points [19][20] Asset Allocation Trends - The proportion of personal financial assets allocated to securities increased to 42.2%, up from 40.87% in Q1 [10] - 38% of investors increased their stock market investments in Q3, while 41% reduced their holdings [9] Sector Focus - The technology sector remains a focal point for investors, with nearly half expecting a style shift in Q4, while 30% believe technology stocks will continue to perform strongly [14][16][18] - The average holding in technology growth stocks rose to 26.64%, significantly higher than other sectors [15] Gold Investment - 67% of investors anticipate further increases in gold prices, with many viewing it as a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation [12] - The average gold price rose from $3300 to $3800 per ounce during the quarter [12] Hong Kong Market Interest - 24% of investors increased their Hong Kong stock investments in Q3, with a profitability rate of 40% [22] - Investors are optimistic about the long-term potential of the Hong Kong market, with many viewing it as a value opportunity [22][24]

Market Overview - The market experienced a volume contraction with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2% on November 4, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.41% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.71% [2] - Over 3,600 stocks declined across the market, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets falling below 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 191.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed strength throughout the day, led by six major state-owned banks, with Xiamen Bank, linked to the Fujian Free Trade Zone, showing the largest gains [4] - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals, pharmaceuticals, and robotics experienced significant declines [2] Investment Sentiment - The strength of bank stocks is perceived as a sign of market stability and risk aversion, indicating a potential lack of momentum for further upward movement [6] - There is a sentiment of resignation among investors, with some expressing frustration over missing out on bank stock gains while their own investments declined [6] Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of volume contraction and downward movement, lacking proactive trends [8] - November is seen as a critical period for style rotation, with historical trends indicating that the "spring market" often begins in December, making November an important time for portfolio adjustments [9] Institutional Behavior - In the fourth quarter, there is typically pressure for profit-taking among mainline sectors, leading institutions to shift from seeking excess returns to locking in profits [10] - This behavior may create a dynamic where one institution's profit-taking prompts others to follow suit, reinforcing the motivation for portfolio rebalancing [10] Sector Focus - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in emerging sectors such as quantum technology, controllable nuclear fusion, and commercial aerospace, which may attract thematic investment interest [10] - The tourism and ice and snow industries are gaining attention, with recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption through improved duty-free shop regulations and a surge in interest in outdoor skiing activities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a positive trend, with significant inflows into the bank ETF (512800) and a collective rise in A-share bank stocks, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards value sectors like banking [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The bank ETF (512800) saw an increase of 1.22%, surpassing the 60-day moving average and approaching the six-month line [1]. - A total of 42 bank stocks in A-shares rose collectively, with five leading stocks, including China Merchants Bank and Postal Savings Bank, gaining over 2% [1]. - The bank ETF recorded a net inflow of 678 million yuan, reversing a previous trend of outflows [3]. Group 2: Institutional Investment - Insurance companies have been actively purchasing bank stocks, with six insurers entering the top ten shareholders of six A-share listed banks in Q3 [3]. - There is an expectation of increased demand for dividend allocation as the insurance sector enters a favorable phase [3]. Group 3: Investment Tools - The bank ETF (512800) passively tracks the CSI Bank Index, which includes 42 listed banks in A-shares, making it an efficient investment tool for tracking the banking sector [3]. - The latest scale of the bank ETF exceeds 19.4 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 800 million yuan, making it the largest and most liquid among ten bank ETFs in A-shares [3].