来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 降息预期方面，点阵图19个票委中有9人预计年内再降息1次甚至更少，9人预计再降息2次，米兰预期再 降息5次，这个异常的预期拉低了平均数，除去异常值预计还有1-2次降息，与当前的期货市场的降息预 期基本匹配。 开启降息后的4季度美国增长可能仍然得到支撑，AI产业投资持续强劲，财政支出在10月新财年后可以 重新启动，等待降息催化的传统需求如制造业PMI和房地产也可能受货币宽松影响很快传导到需求，美 国经济可能仍具韧性。 美国8月零售销售环比意外回升。美国8月零售销售环比上升0.6%，与前值持平，高于预期值0.2%；零 售销售（除汽车）环比上升0.7%，高于预期值0.4%和前值0.4%；零售销售（除汽车与汽油）环比上升 0.7%，高于前值0.4%和前值0.3%。 美国8月新屋开工大幅逊于预期。美国8月新屋开工环比下降8.5%，不及预期值-4.4%和前值3.4%；8月 新屋开工130.7万户，低于预期值136.5万户和前值142.9万户。 美国8月营建许可不及预期，环比跌幅扩大。美国8月营建许可环比下降3.7%，低于预期值0.6%和前 值-2.2%。8月营 ...

Core Viewpoint - After the new controlling shareholder took over, the company Jinzi Ham (002515) is attempting cross-industry investment by acquiring a stake in Zhongsheng Microelectronics (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. [2][8] Group 1: Investment Details - Jinzi Ham's wholly-owned subsidiary, Fujian Jinzi Semiconductor Co., Ltd., plans to invest up to 300 million yuan to acquire no more than 20% equity in Zhongsheng Microelectronics through capital increase [2][6] - The investment will occur in two rounds: the first round involves 100 million yuan at a pre-investment valuation of 1 billion to 1.3 billion yuan, while the second round will depend on the successful verification of a specific chip [6][7] - Zhongsheng Microelectronics specializes in high-speed optical module core chips and has been recognized as a potential unicorn in China [6][9] Group 2: Financial Performance - Zhongsheng Microelectronics has not yet turned a profit, reporting revenues of 204,900 yuan in 2024 and a net loss of 38.83 million yuan [7] - For the first seven months of 2025, the company generated revenues of 51,110 yuan with a net loss of 2.04 million yuan [7] - Jinzi Ham's management acknowledged the risk of overvaluation in this transaction, with a potential appreciation rate of 9,710% based on the pre-investment valuation [7] Group 3: Company Background - Jinzi Ham, established in 1994 and listed in 2010, primarily produces various types of ham and meat products [9] - The company has faced declining performance, with a 14.73% year-on-year drop in revenue to 170 million yuan in the first half of the year [9] - The new controlling shareholder, Zheng Qingsheng, took over in June 2023, marking a significant shift in the company's direction [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the company, Xingye Silver Tin, is continuously advancing its resource layout, with expected production growth from projects like Yinman Phase II, Yubang, and Atlantic Tin, which will gradually ramp up output [1] - The silver market is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap throughout the year, creating a fundamental basis for price increases, while the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle, suggesting that silver may enter a phase of catch-up growth [1] - The scarcity of refined tin resources has intensified in recent years, with supply likely to remain rigid in the long term, while demand elasticity is expected to rise rapidly with the development of the AI industry, leading to an upward shift in tin prices [1] Group 2 - The company’s performance is anticipated to accelerate under the dual influence of rising volume and prices, with projected revenues of 5.503 billion, 6.560 billion, and 7.654 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and net profits attributable to the parent company of 2.028 billion, 2.488 billion, and 2.974 billion yuan for the same period [1] - The report initiates coverage with a "recommended" rating for the company, reflecting positive expectations for its future performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Traditional ham producer Jinzi Ham is attempting to enter the rapidly growing semiconductor sector with a 300 million yuan investment, leading to a significant increase in its market value [1][3]. Investment Details - Jinzi Ham's wholly-owned subsidiary, Fujian Jinzi Semiconductor Co., Ltd., plans to acquire up to 20% equity in Zhongsheng Microelectronics (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. through a capital increase, with a total investment not exceeding 300 million yuan [3]. - The investment will occur in two rounds, with the first round amounting to 100 million yuan based on a pre-investment valuation of Zhongsheng Microelectronics between 1 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan [3]. - Zhongsheng Microelectronics specializes in the research and design of high-speed optical module core chips, with applications in AI, cloud computing, and 5G technologies [3]. Company Background - Jinzi Ham, established in 1994 and listed in December 2010, primarily produces various types of ham and meat products [4]. - The company has previously attempted to diversify into sectors such as healthcare and internet finance, but these efforts were largely unsuccessful [4]. Recent Changes in Management - In June 2023, entrepreneur Zheng Qingsheng acquired Jinzi Ham for 870 million yuan, becoming the new actual controller [5]. - Under the new management, Jinzi Ham has initiated its foray into the semiconductor industry, establishing two wholly-owned subsidiaries focused on semiconductor devices and integrated circuit sales [5]. Financial Performance - Jinzi Ham's financial performance has faced significant pressure, with a reported revenue of 170 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of 14.73% year-on-year [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 25.11% to approximately 22.92 million yuan during the same period [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Traditional ham producer Jinzi Ham is attempting to enter the rapidly growing semiconductor sector with a 300 million yuan investment, which led to a significant increase in its market value by nearly 1 billion yuan in a single day [1][2]. Investment Details - Jinzi Ham's wholly-owned subsidiary, Fujian Jinzi Semiconductor Co., Ltd., plans to invest up to 300 million yuan to acquire no more than 20% equity in Zhongsheng Microelectronics (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. [3] - The investment will occur in two rounds, with the first round involving 100 million yuan based on a pre-investment valuation of Zhongsheng Microelectronics between 1 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan [3]. Company Background - Jinzi Ham, established in 1994 and listed in 2010, primarily produces various types of ham and meat products, including sausages and marinated meats [4]. - The recent cross-industry move into semiconductors is attributed to a change in the company's controlling shareholder and management team, who are optimistic about the future of Zhongsheng Microelectronics [4][5]. Financial Performance - Jinzi Ham's financial performance has been under pressure, with a reported revenue of 170 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of 14.73% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22.92 million yuan, down 25.11% [5]. - The company has previously attempted to diversify into other sectors, such as healthcare and internet finance, but these efforts were largely unsuccessful [4]. Market Context - Zhongsheng Microelectronics, founded in 2019, focuses on high-speed optical module core chip research and development, with applications in AI, cloud computing, and 5G technologies. However, it has not yet achieved profitability, reporting a revenue of 51,110 yuan and a net loss of 20.37 million yuan in the first seven months of the year [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the silver and tin industry, with a strong resource base and ongoing expansion projects that are expected to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [1][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Growth of Silver and Tin Leader - The company has a rich resource base in silver and tin, with significant mining assets acquired over the years, including Silverman Mining and Qianjinda Mining [9]. - The company has seen substantial revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [2][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.53 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.8% [2][15]. 2. Quality Resources Flourishing, Strengthening Competitive Edge - The company is actively expanding its silver and tin resource layout, with ongoing projects such as the expansion of Silverman Mining, which will increase its processing capacity from 1.65 million tons/year to 2.97 million tons/year [3][33]. - The acquisition of Yubang Mining, ranked as the fifth largest single silver mine globally, is expected to enhance the company's silver resource reserves significantly [3][34]. - The company is also set to acquire Atlantic Tin, which will further bolster its tin resource base and international presence [3][43]. 3. Silver: Favorable Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply has been slightly declining, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.5% from 2016 to 2024, while industrial demand is expected to grow, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and AI applications [3][5]. - The report anticipates a continued shortage in global silver supply, which may lead to price increases [3][5]. 4. Tin: Scarcity of Resources and Demand Elasticity - The global tin production is projected to decrease, with a forecast of 300,000 tons in 2024, down 1.6% year-on-year [5]. - The demand for tin is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of the AI industry, which will drive the need for semiconductor materials [5]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.50 billion yuan, 6.56 billion yuan, and 7.65 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 2.03 billion yuan, 2.49 billion yuan, and 2.97 billion yuan respectively [2][5]. - The report emphasizes that the company's ongoing resource expansion and favorable market conditions for silver and tin will likely lead to accelerated earnings growth [5].

南方财经9月23日电，金字火腿（002515.SZ）开盘涨停，报7.85元，市值单日飙升近10亿元。消息面 上，昨日晚间，金字火腿披露公告称，全资子公司福建金字半导体有限公司看好AI产业趋势和光通信 行业的市场前景，拟以不超过3亿元，通过增资扩股的方式取得中晟微电子(杭州)有限公司（简称"中晟 微电子"）不超过20%的股权。对于为何跨界芯片一事？21财经·南财快讯记者以投资者身份致电金字火 腿证券部，接线工作人员表示，此次跨界是公司实控人变更后，新团队入主公司后的操作。公司看好中 晟微电子发展前景，但目前尚处在洽谈阶段，具体投资回报周期等问题，需关注后续公告。本次投资为 财务投资，双方财务不并表，且公司过往有过不太成功的投资事项，而此次投资公司也尚未盈利，因此 投资者需格外注意风险。查看原文："火腿第一股"涨停！多次投资失败后跨界芯片，公司回应刚刚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Jinzi Ham is making a strategic investment in the AI and optical communication sectors by acquiring up to 20% equity in Zhongsheng Microelectronics (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. for no more than 300 million RMB, indicating confidence in the domestic chip replacement capabilities in the optical communication field [1] Group 1 - The investment will be executed in two rounds, with the final amount and shareholding ratio to be determined after due diligence and consideration of the target company's future development plans and market valuation [1] - The board of directors of Jinzi Ham approved the investment framework agreement with Zhongsheng Microelectronics on September 19, 2025 [1] - The investment reflects the company's recognition of the market potential in the AI industry and optical communication sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jinzi Ham (002515) has seen a significant stock price increase, reaching a limit up of 7.85 CNY per share, following the announcement of a strategic investment in the AI and optical communication sectors through its subsidiary, Fujian Jinzi Semiconductor Co., Ltd [1] Group 1: Investment Details - Fujian Jinzi plans to invest up to 300 million CNY to acquire no more than 20% equity in Zhongsheng Microelectronics (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd, recognizing its capabilities in domestic substitution for optical communication chips [1] - The investment will be funded through self-owned or self-raised funds and is not classified as a major asset restructuring under relevant regulations [1] Group 2: Company Background - Jinzi Ham specializes in various meat products, including Chinese and European-style hams, sausages, and pre-prepared meat products tailored for e-commerce and restaurant clients [1] - Zhongsheng Microelectronics focuses on the research and design of high-speed optical module core chips, including TIA and Driver chips for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T applications [1] Group 3: Management and Risks - The management acknowledges limitations in industry experience and past unsuccessful investments, indicating potential risks associated with this cross-industry investment [2] - The investment decision aligns with the company's future development strategy and will not adversely affect its normal operations or harm the interests of shareholders, particularly minority investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company Jinzi Ham (002515) plans to invest up to 300 million yuan in Zhongsheng Microelectronics (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. through capital increase and expansion to seize opportunities in the AI and optical communication industries [1] Investment Details - The investment will occur in two rounds, aiming to acquire no more than 20% equity in Zhongsheng Microelectronics, with the first round based on a pre-investment valuation of 1 billion to 1.3 billion yuan [1] - The specific amount and shareholding ratio will be finalized after due diligence and negotiations [1] Company Background - Zhongsheng Microelectronics, established in 2019, focuses on the R&D and design of high-speed optical module core chips for applications in AI, cloud computing, and 5G/5.5G [1] - The company has a top-tier design team and has been listed in the "China Future Unicorn TOP100" for 2024 and 2025 [1] Strategic Rationale - The investment aims to broaden investment channels and align with the trends of the digital economy, providing new opportunities for the company's future business growth [1] - The company's main business has been slow due to consumer market factors, and this cross-industry investment is expected to boost performance and achieve sustainable development in the medium to long term [1] Financial Considerations - Zhongsheng Microelectronics has not yet turned a profit, reporting a loss of 20.37 million yuan in the first seven months of the year, indicating uncertainty in future profitability [2] - The first round of investment is based on a pre-investment valuation of 1 billion yuan, which could imply a significant appreciation rate of 9710% by the end of 2024 if calculated from the lower end of the valuation range [2] - The company has acknowledged past unsuccessful investments, highlighting the risks associated with this cross-industry investment [2]