Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Market Outlook for 2026**: The founder of Panjing Investment, Zhuang Tao, predicts a unique bull market in 2026 characterized by significant trading volume and the influx of external capital, with 4.92 million new accounts opened in January 2026 alone [1] - **Low Interest Rate Environment**: A substantial amount of trillions in three-year fixed deposits will mature, leading to ample liquidity in the market [1] - **Market Trends**: Despite market volatility, the overall trend is upward, with a low probability of a bear market [1] Key Insights - **Structural Anomalies**: - Active management funds are experiencing redemptions, while quantitative and fixed-income products are gaining popularity [1] - Excess liquidity has led to a surge in thematic stocks, while heavily held fund stocks have declined, reminiscent of early 2007 market conditions [1] - The regulatory environment remains mild, but market structure shifts may not follow historical patterns [1] AI Industry Opportunities - **Countering the "No Revenue from AI" Argument**: - Strong demand for cloud services (e.g., Azure, AWS) indicates actual revenue generation; capital expenditures are a characteristic of the industry [1] - Investment in AI is viewed as a survival strategy, with companies fearing to fall behind rather than solely calculating returns (e.g., Google and ByteDance's aggressive investments) [1] - **Industry Chain Opportunities**: - Strong overseas demand for AI, with domestic companies like Alibaba and Tencent increasing investments [1] - Supply-demand tension in sectors like storage is leading to performance growth for domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies [1] - Short-term stock price fluctuations do not alter the long-term industry trend; focus should remain on fundamentals [1] Investment Strategy - **Responding to Volatility and Extreme Market Conditions**: - Emphasis on fundamental analysis, requiring deep research (90% or higher understanding) to avoid being swayed by market fluctuations [1] - Balanced allocation between growth and value stocks, with diversified investments across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas markets [1] - Structural opportunities exist in Hong Kong, but careful selection of reasonably valued quality companies is necessary [1] - **Focus on Bottleneck Areas**: - Sectors like storage, due to supply-demand gaps, will be key focus areas throughout the year [1] Other Industry Perspectives - **Precious Metals (e.g., Gold, Copper)**: Supported by weakened dollar credibility and policies from Trump [1] - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: Viewed positively, with teams enhancing research and layout [1] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Primarily structural opportunities, with the internet sector requiring further observation [1] Core Conclusion - Zhuang Tao believes that the 2026 bull market should leverage the "AI industry trend and balanced allocation," and through in-depth research and patient positioning, investors can capture certain opportunities in a market with an unfriendly capital structure [1]

澜起科技首日表现强劲，开盘报168港元，较每股106.9港元的发行价高开57.17%。截至当日收盘，报 175港元，涨63.72%，对应总市值超2121亿港元。 转自：新华财经 据悉，澜起科技成立于2004年5月，总部位于上海。公司于2019年7月在上海交易所科创板挂牌上市。 新华财经香港2月9日电（记者林迎楠）澜起科技股份有限公司9日在香港交易所主板正式挂牌交易，实 现"A+H"双上市平台。 招股书显示，澜起科技此次发售6589万股，每股定价106.89港元，募集资金总额约70.43亿港元，募资净 额约69.05亿港元。此次H股上市募集的资金将主要用于深化公司的国际化战略布局、持续吸引并集聚优 秀的研发与管理人才、增强境外融资能力等三个方面。 澜起科技表示，受益于AI产业趋势，行业需求旺盛，互连类芯片出货量增加推动公司2025年度经营业 绩较上年同期实现大幅增长。公司日前发布的公告预计，澜起科技2025年度净利润将达到21.5亿元至 23.5亿元人民币，较上年同期增长52.29%至66.46%。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润预计为19.2亿元至 21.2亿元人民币，增幅最高接近70%。 编辑：罗浩 ...

A股澜起科技为科创50ETF第三大重仓股，截止发稿上涨5.07%，带动科创50ETF（588000）上涨2.2%。 从资金面来看，近5日市场连续调整下，资金流入科创50ETF30.3亿元，逢低布局较为明显。均线位置 来看，科创50ETF触碰45日均线后企稳反弹，建议逢低关注。 2月9日，澜起科技在港交所挂牌上市，开盘价168港元，较发行价上涨57.1%，市值超1900亿港元。作 为全球最大内存互连芯片供应商，澜起科技预计2025年净利润增长52%-66%，扣非净利润增幅最高近 70%，主要受益于AI产业需求旺盛推动芯片出货量增加。 ...

资料显示，澜起科技是一家全球领先的无晶圆厂集成电路设计公司，专注于为云计算及AI基础设施提供创新、可靠且高能效的互连解决方案。根据弗若斯 特沙利文的资料，按收入计算，公司于2024年位居全球最大的内存互连芯片供应商，市场份额达36.8%。 2月9日，内存接口芯片龙头澜起科技在港交所挂牌上市。 业绩方面，公司近日发布的公告显示，预计2025年度净利润将达到21.5亿元至23.5亿元人民币，较上年同期增长52.29%至66.46%。扣除非经常性损益后的净 利润预计为19.2亿元至21.2亿元人民币，增幅最高接近70%。 | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 © | | --- | --- | | 187.100 | 6809[澜起科技] 11:06 价 159.850 涨跌 52.960(49.55%) 均价 157.611 成交量 5200 成交金额 83.13万 2026/02/09 | | | Win.日人气榜 第 12 名 | | 167.048 m | | | ----- | | | 146.995 | | | 126.943 ...

证券研究报告 +(86) 10 6321 1166 张皓怡* 研究员 SAC No. S0570522020001 zhanghaoyi@htsc.com 寒武纪 (688256 CH) 新品进展顺利，上调 27 年预测 目标价(人民币): 1,679.40 郭龙飞* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080001 guolongfei@htsc.com 林文富* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525100003 linwenfu@htsc.com 王心怡 研究员 SAC No. S0570523110001 SFC No. BTB527 xinyi.wang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 2 月 6 日) | 1,037 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 437,283 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 12,998 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 523.50-1,587.91 | 股价走势图 (13) 32 77 121 166 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in the US stock market, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 50,000 points, indicates a significant bullish trend, with a closing increase of 2.47% on February 6, marking a rise of 1,206.95 points from the previous day [1][5] - Chinese concept stocks (Chinext) experienced a substantial rebound, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 3.71%, recovering previous losses and reflecting renewed investor interest [1][3] Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in Chinese stocks is attributed to a combination of factors, including the anticipated dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle in the second half of 2026, leading to increased liquidity and a shift towards growth assets [3][5] - The strong fundamentals of Chinese companies, such as Alibaba's stable e-commerce base and TSMC's dominance in the semiconductor industry, have contributed to renewed interest from Wall Street investors [3][4] Investment Behavior - Hedge funds on Wall Street have been quietly accumulating Chinese assets, with notable increases in holdings for companies like JD.com, which saw a 44% rise in positions, indicating a strategic shift towards Chinese equities [4][5] - For long-term investors, the current market conditions present an opportunity to gradually build positions in Chinese stocks, as valuations are considered reasonable following previous adjustments [4][5] Market Sentiment - The recent performance of Chinese stocks is seen as a response to favorable policies and a resurgence of foreign capital, suggesting that previously undervalued assets are gaining recognition [5][6] - Investors are advised to approach the market with caution, particularly short-term traders, as the potential for market corrections exists despite the recent gains [4][6]

而葛卫东另一位关联人王萍持股则保持稳定，截至1月26日，王萍仍持有1148.92万股麦格米特，与去年 底持股数量相同。仅因定增股本稀释，持股比例被动降至1.98%，变为麦格米特第五大股东。 从投资路径来看，葛卫东家族近年来尤为青睐AI产业标的。目前葛卫东不仅是兆易创新的第三大股 东，还是沐曦股份的最大外部股东，与混沌投资合计持有其2693.79万股。 值得注意的是，在葛卫东申购失利的同时，其关联人葛贵莲也退出了麦格米特前十大股东名单。 据了解，葛贵莲是在2025年三季度末新进成为麦格米特的第九大股东，持有麦格米特606.76万股，持股 比例为1.1%，直到2025年底持股数量未发生变化。而此次定增完成后（截止1月26日），麦格米特第十 大股东最新持股数量为529.98万股。以此参照，2026开年以来葛贵莲至少减持麦格米特76万股。 2月5日，麦格米特发布了股票发行上市公告以及最新股东名单。麦格米特此次定增以85.01元/股的价格 向10名对象发行约3132.59万股，合计募集资金26.63亿元。 申购名单显示，葛卫东也参与了麦格米特此次定增，申购总金额高达24亿元，分别出价83.7元、79.98 元、75.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for Lumentum (LITE), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - Lumentum's FY26Q2 results set a record with total revenue reaching $665.5 million, a year-over-year increase of over 65%, marking the second consecutive quarter of record revenue [3][7]. - Non-GAAP operating margin increased significantly by 1730 basis points to 25.2%, while non-GAAP gross margin reached 42.5%, up 1020 basis points year-over-year and 310 basis points quarter-over-quarter [3][7]. - The company reported a non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.67, exceeding expectations, with cash and short-term investments totaling $1.16 billion [3][7]. Revenue Breakdown - **Component Business**: Revenue was $443.7 million, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17% and a year-over-year increase of 68%. The growth was driven by significant demand for laser chips and components, particularly for cloud transceiver customers [8]. - **System Business**: Revenue reached $221.8 million, reflecting a 43% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 60% year-over-year increase, primarily contributed by cloud transceiver business [9]. Business Progress - **Cloud Transceivers**: The 1.6T product line is advancing beyond expectations, with profitability significantly higher than the 800G products. The company is focusing on reducing design cycles and improving yield to enhance profitability [4]. - **Optical Communication Systems (OCS)**: Orders are coming from multiple clients, with applications across four major scenarios, and expected to continue growing into 2027 [4]. - **CPO**: The company secured several hundred million dollars in orders for high-power laser chips, with deliveries expected in the first half of 2027 [4]. - **Fiber Expansion**: Targeting opportunities in data center architecture transformation, with plans to launch large-scale CPO products by the end of 2027 [4]. Earnings Guidance - For FY26Q3, Lumentum expects net revenue between $780 million and $830 million, with a midpoint of $805 million, representing over 85% year-over-year growth [10]. - Non-GAAP operating margin is projected to be between 30% and 31%, with diluted earnings per share expected to be between $2.15 and $2.35 [10].

Group 1 - Spot gold and silver experienced a "V-shaped" rebound, with gold increasing by 1% and silver rising over 2% after initial declines of more than 2% and 8% respectively [1] - The non-ferrous sector saw a corresponding rise, with the ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) gaining nearly 1% and attracting nearly 10 million yuan in net inflows during the session, totaling close to 300 million yuan over the past 10 days [1] - The China Securities Galaxy believes that the recent price corrections in gold and silver are normal profit-taking actions after reaching historical highs, which may help to release overheated market sentiment [2] Group 2 - In January, the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index rose for the ninth consecutive month, reaching a three-and-a-half-year high, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% to 125.3 points [3] - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 saw price increases, with lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel leading with month-on-month increases of 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively [3] - The non-ferrous metals price index rose significantly by 9.9% month-on-month, driven by factors such as international monetary policy and geopolitical influences [3] Group 3 - Recent pricing logic for non-ferrous metals is shifting from short-term supply and demand to broader macroeconomic factors, benefiting from ongoing fiscal expansion and liquidity in major economies [4] - The copper market is characterized by both supply and demand constraints, with limited new mine production and ongoing supply disruptions, while demand is driven by energy transition and AI industries [4] - The non-ferrous sector is highlighted as having significant investment value due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, with the Huatai-PineBridge ETF (159652) being recommended for its comprehensive exposure to various metal sectors [4][5] Group 4 - The Huatai-PineBridge ETF (159652) has a leading concentration of core strategic commodities such as copper, gold, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, with a top five stock concentration of 38% [8] - The ETF's index has shown superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return leading its peers and a lower maximum drawdown, indicating a better investment experience [10] - The index's price increase is driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, with a current PE ratio of 26.27, down 52% from five years ago, suggesting a favorable valuation [10]

截至2026年2月6日 09:59，有色金属ETF天弘(159157)盘中换手3.17%，位居同类产品第一，成交3123.94万元。跟踪的中证工业有色金属主题指数 (H11059)下跌0.78%。成分股方面涨跌互现，中钨高新领涨2.60%，云铝股份上涨1.59%，天山铝业上涨1.54%。 【产品亮点】 被动化投资价值较大：各细分金属都是一个子行业，逻辑与产业周期各异，主动投研很难完全覆盖。此时，指数化投资是较好的选择，可实现工业有色 金属的一键配置。 （数据来源：Wind，截至2025年11月21日） 【相关产品】 有色金属ETF天弘(159157)，对应场外联接基金（A类：017192；C类：017193）。 【热点事件】 2025年有色金属企业工业增加值增长6.9% 据中国有色金属工业协会了解到，2025年我国有色金属企业工业增加值增长6.9%，10种有色金属产量首次突破8000万吨大关，达到8175万吨，比上年增 长3.9%。 行业相对集中：工业有色金属前三大行业分别为铜31.1%、铝21.9%和稀土16.1%，合计占比约70%，指数行业集中度相对较高。 AI驱动带来上游需求提升：随着AI产业的快速发展 ...