港股科技股继续走强，医药股集体爆发，科技、互联网跟涨。$港股科技50ETF(SZ159750)$ ，成份股三生制药涨超36%，晶泰控股、信达生物、药 明生物、百济神州等跟涨；零跑汽车、小米集团涨超3%。 财报季：景气度向上+估值低位 Deepseek技术突破引发的中国科技核心资产价值重估仍在进行中，港股科技龙头业绩回暖持续验证。截至目前，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、京东集团等7 家头部科技公司公布一季报，营收和净流入均实现正增长，其中，阿里巴巴、吉利汽车净利润同比增速超260%，比亚迪股份、中芯国际等净利润同 比增幅超100%。 | 公司简称 | 营收(亿元) | 营收同比(%) | 净利润(亿元) | 净利润同比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 腾讯控股 | 1800. 22 | 12. 87 | 478. 21 | 14. 16 | | 阿里巴巴 | 2364. 50 | 7.00 | 298.5 | 273. 22 | | 京东集团 | 3010. 82 | 15. 78 | 108.9 | 52. 73 | | 网易 | 288. 29 | 7. 36 | 103 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 宽信用与弱预期的裂口 市场思考： 如何理解近期 M2 与社融的强势表现？ 1）M2 与社融是一体两面。近期 M2、社融增速均出现回升向好态势，然而 后续仍然需要进一步观察。其一是社融的增长依赖政府债，信贷表现不佳， 其二 M2 在 4 月的上行一定程度也有低基数的影响——2024 年上半年对金 融总量数据产生"挤水分"，M2 加速下行。2）从 2015 年以来，社融与 M2 的节奏表现整体是一致的，但每一轮的表征不同。在几轮周期中，M2 底部回升幅度更加明显，但顶部方面，15-21 年期间，M2 顶部往往是领先 于社融，表明社融的上升持续性更强。而 2022 年的 M2 回升却强于社融， 期间政府债券在同期明显上行。我们认为，居民中长贷反映出的地产周期的 作用非常关键。3）因此，M2 的持续回升是社融回升的基础。展望未来， 一方面基数压力仍然不大，去年 9 月份开始 M2 增速才开始探底回升，另一 方面，宽货币基调强化。24Q4 货政报告指出" 注重盘活存量金融资源 "、 " 防范资金沉淀空转 "，而在 25Q1 报告中则是" 灵活把握政策实施的力度 和 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that global major asset classes have shown significant recovery, particularly risk assets such as equities, commodities, and alternatives, following positive developments in US-China trade talks [4][10] - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response for asset allocation in the context of a changing investment paradigm, focusing on three tactical opportunities for aggressive buying: improved win rates due to easing trade tensions, attractive valuations of Chinese assets, and liquidity issues leading to opportunities [5][13] - The article highlights that the strategic long-term view is influenced by three underlying logics: the intensification of de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, reinforcing the need for an all-weather strategy to balance risks and returns [5][13] Group 2 - Key financial indicators from May 5 to May 13 show a convergence in the SOFR-OIS spread, indicating a slight easing of US dollar liquidity, and an increase in the US financial conditions index, reflecting improved overall financial conditions [6][10] - The article provides a calendar of important global economic data releases and events from May 19 to June 1, including China's fixed asset investment and retail sales, as well as US initial jobless claims and GDP estimates [16] - The focus charts track global major asset dynamics, showing significant movements in various asset classes and their correlations, which are essential for understanding market trends and making informed investment decisions [17]

Group 1 - The robot concept is gaining renewed market attention, with the robot ETF (159770) achieving a trading volume of over 370 million yuan on May 13, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] - The robot ETF (159770) has seen net inflows of over 430 million yuan in the past 20 trading days, with 14 days recording positive inflows [1] - The robot ETF (159770) has outperformed its benchmark with excess returns of 1.81% and 4.59% over the past year and three years, respectively, leading among similar ETF products [1] Group 2 - Financial analysts suggest that with increased domestic policy support and trends in the AI industry, the market may experience a short-term upward trend, focusing on high-performance sectors such as AI and export recovery opportunities [2]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 经历了外部不确定因素的冲击后，A股市场在4月表现出足够的韧性。进入5月，A股行情仍保持震荡回 暖态势。 上周，A股主要股指震荡偏强，上证指数周上涨1.92%，深成指周上涨2.29%，创业板指周上涨3.27%。5 月12日，三大指数保持走强，截至收盘，沪指涨0.82%，深成指涨1.72%，创业板指涨2.63%。 机构普遍认为，目前中国资产重估的叙事仍在继续。5月份往后，在关税谈判预期推动、国内政策加 力、AI产业趋势加持下，A股市场有望持续走强。 A股三大指数走强 12日，A股主要指数集体走强。截至收盘，沪指涨0.82%，深成指涨1.72%，创业板指涨2.63%，北证50 指数涨2.89%。全市场成交额13409亿元，较上日放量1185亿元。 估值低位优势仍存 与全球主要市场估值相比，目前A股市场估值仍处于低位。上周，证监会主席吴清在国新办发布会上表 示，A股市场估值水平实际上被业界认为仍处于相对低位。沪深300市盈率只有12.3倍，国内市场主要指 数市盈率都明显低于标普500等全球主要指数。在全球市场不稳定因素明显增多的环境下，中国资产 ...

Core Insights - The China Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index (000861) has shown a strong increase of 1.37% as of May 12, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Ruike Laser (300747) up 11.37% and Guorui Technology (600562) up 9.99% [3] - The Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF (515900) has also risen by 1.34%, with a latest price of 1.44 yuan, and has a trading volume of 562.87 million yuan [3] - The ETF's scale has reached 3.3 billion yuan, ranking it in the top quarter among comparable funds [3] Performance Metrics - As of May 9, 2025, the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF has achieved a net value increase of 24.83% over the past three years, ranking 312 out of 1747 in equity funds, placing it in the top 17.86% [4] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 15.05% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being five months and a total gain of 24.91% [4] - The average return for the months with gains is 4.08%, and the annual profit percentage stands at 80.00%, with a historical three-year holding profit probability of 97.34% [4] Risk and Fee Structure - The management fee for the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The tracking error over the past five years is 0.038%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index include Hikvision (002415), State Grid NARI (600406), and China Telecom (601728), collectively accounting for 34.48% of the index [5][6] - The individual weights of the top stocks range from 5.08% for Hikvision to 2.60% for China Railway (601390) [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by increased market attention and the effectiveness of "stabilization funds" [1] - Focus areas include the AI industry chain, self-controllable sectors, and consumption sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, particularly in service consumption [1] - High dividend sectors are expected to continue attracting investment, especially in banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [1] Group 2 - The market has recovered from previous negative impacts, but underlying negative factors have not been completely eliminated, suggesting a period of consolidation ahead [2] - It is recommended to adjust the current portfolio by reducing exposure to high-growth technology sectors and reallocating to financial, state-owned enterprises, and dividend-paying sectors [2] Group 3 - The technology sector is likely to continue its strong performance in the short term, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to outperform the market [3] - Supportive policies and industry trends are driving the technology sector, with liquidity conditions also becoming more favorable [3] - Historical trends indicate that TMT typically shows strong performance relative to the market in May, driven by policy and industry catalysts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the irreversible logic behind the restructuring of the global order and the new investment paradigm, driven by unconventional policies from the Trump administration to address global supply and demand imbalances [3][4][14]. Group 1: Globalization and G2 Imbalances - The globalization process has intensified the trade, production, and debt imbalances between the G2 nations, with the U.S. positioned as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13]. - Since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the U.S. has increasingly relied on debt expansion to create demand, leading to continuous trade deficits and external debt accumulation, while China has maintained a trade surplus through its manufacturing capabilities [9][13]. - As major economies move away from high growth, the importance of "efficiency" is yielding to "distribution," indicating a long-term trend towards increased de-globalization [9][13]. Group 2: Restructuring Global Order - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to reshape global trade and monetary order through tariffs and the restructuring of U.S. debt, addressing long-standing trade and fiscal deficits while enhancing U.S. export competitiveness [4][11][23]. - Although the full implementation of the Mar-a-Lago Agreement faces significant challenges, understanding its implications is crucial for anticipating future policy directions from the Trump administration [4][11][23]. Group 3: New Investment Paradigm - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields remaining "higher for longer," Chinese bond yields remaining "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][25]. - The ongoing trend of de-globalization and isolationist policies under Trump will exacerbate uncertainties in global economic growth and inflation, reinforcing the underlying logic of the new investment paradigm [5][12][25]. - The elevation of the global risk premium will significantly affect the correlation between major asset classes and increase the volatility of global assets, fundamentally altering the existing global asset allocation framework [5][12][25][33].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the restructuring of the global order is an irreversible underlying logic, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply and demand imbalance [3][4][14] - It highlights the increasing imbalance in trade, production, and debt between the G2 countries, with the U.S. as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13] - The article discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to reshape global trade and monetary order to alleviate the U.S.'s long-standing current account and fiscal deficits [11][23] Group 2 - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury rates being "higher for longer," Chinese bond rates being "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][32] - The article suggests that the ongoing trend of de-globalization will significantly disrupt the existing global asset allocation framework [9][13][33] - It notes that the U.S. reliance on debt expansion has led to continuous current account deficits and manufacturing hollowing out, while China benefits from a persistent trade surplus [9][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue and net profit for eight consecutive quarters, driven by increasing demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance interconnect chips [3][5] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of RMB 54.83 billion, RMB 74.22 billion, and RMB 93.07 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] - The demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance interconnect chips is anticipated to continue growing, supported by trends in the AI industry [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 12.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.43% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was RMB 5.25 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 135.14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.13% [8] - The gross margin for interconnect chip products was 64.50%, up 3.57 percentage points year-on-year [8] Revenue Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 5,483 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 50.7% compared to 2024 [7] - The expected net profit for 2025 is RMB 2,211 million, representing a growth rate of 56.6% [7] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 84.84 billion and an average trading volume of RMB 2,605.53 million over the past three months [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 7.66% of shares [2]