策 略 研 究 噤若寒蝉：风偏下行压制全球权益表现 [Table_Authors] 王子翌(分析师) 战术性资产配置周度点评（20251124） 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配 A/H 股，战术性标 配美股、美债、黄金与人民币。 鸽声渐起：超配权益待新高，债券迎配置时机 2025.08.24 各项大类资产本周波动较大，国内资产 BL 策略 本周录得正收益 2025.04.16 引火烧身：特朗普政策反复削弱美元信用 2025.04.14 美债遭遇抛售潮，A 股消费风格估值回升 2025.04.13 紧急避险：关税战争压制全球风险偏好 2025.04.07 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | 021-38038293 | | --- | --- | | | wangziyi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050004 | | | 方奕(分析师) | | | 021-38031658 | | | fangyi2 ...

Group 1 - The week of November 24-30 will see the release of China's October industrial profits and November official manufacturing PMI data [1] - Several Chinese concept stocks will disclose their Q3 earnings, including Alibaba, Meituan, Li Auto, and NIO [1] - Huawei will hold a product launch event for the Mate80 series and a new GPU from the first domestic GPU company, Moer Thread, will be available for subscription [1] Group 2 - On November 24, domestic refined oil will enter a new round of price adjustment [1] - On November 25, Huawei's product launch will feature the Mate80 series and new Kirin chips, alongside the release of the US September PPI year-on-year [1] - On November 26, the US Department of Commerce will release the revised Q3 GDP, personal income, spending, and PCE price index for October [1] Group 3 - A total of 38 stocks will face the unlocking of restricted shares this week, with a total unlocking volume of 1.914 billion shares, valued at 21.305 billion yuan [1] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are China Southern Airlines (5.689 billion yuan), Feiling Technology (1.871 billion yuan), and Huaton Co., Ltd. (1.742 billion yuan) [2] Group 4 - The National Internet Information Office and the Ministry of Public Security have drafted regulations for personal information protection on large online platforms, seeking public opinion [3] - The regulations require platform providers to designate a personal information protection officer and establish a dedicated protection work unit [3] Group 5 - China Tourism Group is leading the establishment of a new central enterprise for cruise operations, following a meeting organized by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [4] - The new cruise operation platform will have the largest fleet in Asia after the professional integration [4] Group 6 - Beijing is revising the model contracts for commodity housing sales for the first time in eight years, aiming to protect buyers' rights [4] - The revised contracts will clarify the importance of pre-registration and streamline the process to prevent issues like "one house sold multiple times" [4] Group 7 - The first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line in China has been completed and is currently in small-batch testing [5] - The new battery technology reportedly has an energy density nearly double that of existing batteries, with plans for small-batch vehicle testing by 2026 [5] Group 8 - The Ministry of Finance has announced that electronic savings bonds will be included in the personal pension product range [6] - Institutions will adjust the allocation ratio of pension-specific quotas quarterly based on the amount of unsold savings bonds [6] Group 9 - China has officially launched a commercial trial for satellite IoT services, which will enhance the satellite communication market and support emerging industries [7] Group 10 - Wentech Technology has urged Nexperia Netherlands to resolve control issues that threaten the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [8] - The company emphasizes the need for constructive dialogue to restore its legitimate control and shareholder rights [8] Group 11 - The US and Ukraine are set to hold talks in Switzerland regarding a peace plan to end the conflict, with Ukraine aiming for a dignified resolution [9] - This week, two new stocks will be issued on the A-share market, including Moer Thread and Bai Ao Sai Tu [9]

Core Viewpoints - Current risk release provides an opportunity for reallocating A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by year-end and planning for 2026 [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a "darkest hour," but long-term confidence remains unwavering [4] - The adjustment phase is merely a "doubtful bull market level" [11] Industry Insights - Focus on resource and traditional manufacturing opportunities, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [3] - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant valuation growth potential for A-share companies [8] - The market is likely to experience a style switch, with increasing attention on low-valued sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - Emphasize sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption, such as upstream resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil, coal) and midstream industries [5] - Maintain a balanced allocation between growth sectors and undervalued value industries, particularly in the consumer sector as year-end approaches [10] - Focus on AI applications and sectors closely related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and quantum technology [14]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 technology structural bull market is considered "Bull Market 1.0," with a potential peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market termed "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The AI industry trend is expected to deepen, but the cost-effectiveness of the A-share AI industry chain is deemed low, similar to previous years in 2014, 2018, and 2021 [1] - A mid-2026 supply clearing in midstream manufacturing is anticipated, with a notable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The sequence of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to occur, with mid-2026 potentially validating the "policy bottom" [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines in 2026: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI industry chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to manufacturing influence enhancement, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is characterized by high dividend defensiveness, with the latter stage driven by cyclical policies and technological trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis presented by Shenyin Wanguo's chief analyst suggests a two-phase bull market, with 2025 representing the "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and a potential transition to a broader bull market in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The "Bull Market 1.0" in 2025 is characterized by a technology-driven structure, with expectations of a peak in the spring of 2026 [1] - The second half of 2026 may initiate a comprehensive bull market, termed "Bull Market 2.0" [1] Group 2: AI Industry Insights - The AI industry trend is expected to continue evolving, but the stock prices of A-share AI industry chain companies are currently in a long-term low cost-performance zone [1] - This situation is reminiscent of previous market phases, such as the early 2014 ChiNext, early 2018 food and beverage sector, and early 2021 new energy sector [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, markets often undergo a phase of skepticism before continuing with industry trend-driven rallies [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 40.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.83%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.32 billion yuan, up 66.89% year-on-year [5][11] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.92%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.73 billion yuan, up 22.94% year-on-year but down 25.33% quarter-on-quarter due to the impact of equity incentive expenses [5][11] - The company is actively seizing opportunities in the AI industry, with significant increases in shipments of DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance computing chips, contributing to substantial growth in operating performance [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 61.46%, an increase of 3.34 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue from interconnect chips was 38.32 billion yuan, up 61.21% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 64.83% [11] - The company expects the demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance computing chips to continue to grow significantly in 2025, driven by trends in the AI industry [11] Research and Development - The company invested 5.33 billion yuan in R&D in the first three quarters of 2025, with an R&D expense ratio of 13.14%. It has launched new products such as the CXL 3.x MXC chip and is actively developing PCIe Switch chips [11] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 21.97 billion yuan, 30.13 billion yuan, and 37.40 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.92 yuan, 2.63 yuan, and 3.27 yuan [11]

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a decline, closing down by $23.90 at $4171.36, after reaching a peak of $4244.94, the highest since October 21 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close lower, with the Dow Jones down 797.6 points (1.65%), S&P 500 down 113.43 points (1.66%), and Nasdaq down 536.10 points (2.29%) [1] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The U.S. Labor Department failed to release the October CPI report, leading to uncertainty among Federal Reserve policymakers [3][4] - The absence of the non-farm payroll report may increase investor doubts regarding the U.S. economic outlook [5] - Market volatility is expected to rise in the absence of official data, with significant discrepancies likely among institutional forecasts [7] Federal Reserve's Stance - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish views, showing concern over inflation and adopting a cautious approach towards future rate cuts [8] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped to 50.7%, down from 70% the previous week, indicating a shift in market expectations [10] - The overall sentiment suggests that the Federal Reserve is not inclined to compromise with market expectations regarding rate cuts [10] Stock Market Outlook - Despite high valuations in the U.S. stock market, there is potential for earnings to be revised upward as economic activity recovers [12] - The Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, including rate cuts and the planned cessation of balance sheet reduction, are expected to improve market liquidity [12] - The trend in AI industries remains a key investment theme for the U.S. stock market [12]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, with a rotation in market styles and sectors as technology stocks pull back while consumer and banking sectors rise [1] - The average equity fund position is at a historical high, with ordinary stock funds averaging a 91.46% position as of November 9, up from 91.34% on November 2 [1] Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are focusing on optimizing their portfolio structures rather than aggressively increasing positions, seeking to capture alpha through quality stocks while adding consumer and dividend assets [1] - New fund launches have increased, with 39 new funds starting fundraising from November 10 to 16, marking a 5.41% week-on-week growth [2] Performance of New Funds - Nearly 60% of new funds established in the last three months have shown a profit or loss exceeding 1%, with about 20% delivering over 5% returns, and the best-performing fund rising over 40% [2] Market Trends and Sector Focus - The market's recent volatility is attributed to a shift in funding direction, with some institutional investors reallocating to secure annual returns, leading to better performance in dividend sectors [2] - The medical device sector has seen a significant increase in institutional research activity, with nearly 3000 investigations in the past month, indicating high interest [3] Investment Outlook - There is a belief that many quality companies are currently undervalued, with a focus on cyclical sectors benefiting from structural economic recovery and supply constraints [3] - Growth segments driven by their own industry cycles, particularly those with high return on equity (ROE), are also considered worthy of attention [3]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.0 trillion CNY, with the turnover rate declining, indicating reduced market activity[5] - The proportion of stocks rising increased to 54.77%, with the median weekly return for A-share stocks rising to 0.6%[5] Fund Flows - New issuance of equity funds decreased to 21.84 billion CNY, while foreign capital inflow accelerated, with a net inflow of 8.0 million USD as of November 5[6] - The net buying amount of financing decreased to 11.63 billion CNY, accounting for 10.8% of total trading volume[6] Sector Performance - Foreign capital primarily flowed into the electronics sector, with a net inflow of 63.2 million USD, while financing capital mainly flowed into the power equipment sector, with a net inflow of 68.3 billion CNY[7] - The healthcare equipment sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven market recovery, with significant growth in bidding volumes for new medical equipment[17][20] Economic Indicators - The average price of Brent crude oil was 68.17 USD per barrel in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.40%[44] - The construction sector showed signs of recovery, with new home transaction areas in major cities decreasing by 40.6% week-on-week, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market[33] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends an overweight position in A/H shares and industrial commodities, suggesting an equity allocation of 45% and a commodity allocation of 10%[9][10]

Group 1 - The article presents an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [1][8] - The framework aims to diversify macro risks through SAA, set long-term allocation benchmarks for portfolio stability, and use TAA to identify short-term risk-return characteristics for asset adjustments [1][8] - The recommendation for November includes an overweight position in Chinese A/H shares and industrial commodities, with equity allocation at 45%, bonds at 45%, and commodities at 10% [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for Chinese equities is optimistic, suggesting a 45% allocation with overweight positions in A-shares (8.5%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.5%), while maintaining standard allocations for US (15%), European (5%), and Japanese stocks (5%) [2] - The improvement in Sino-US relations and stable domestic financial conditions are seen as favorable for Chinese assets, with a strong demand for quality assets amid ongoing market reforms [2][12] - The bond allocation is suggested to be neutral at 45%, with standard positions in long-term and short-term government bonds for both China and the US [3] Group 3 - The commodity allocation is viewed as neutral to slightly optimistic, recommending a 10% allocation with standard positions in gold (5%) and industrial commodities (3.75%), while underweighting oil (1.25%) [3] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to experience price increases due to supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, electric grid modernization, and electric vehicle demand [3][14] Group 4 - The macroeconomic analysis emphasizes the importance of tracking macroeconomic expectations and their impact on asset pricing, highlighting that deviations from expectations can lead to significant asset price fluctuations [10][15] - The article discusses the significance of macroeconomic cycles in guiding long-term investment strategies, with a focus on the cyclical nature of economic indicators [19][15]