Core Viewpoint - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by increased investor confidence and proactive strategies from fund companies to capitalize on market opportunities [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since September, there have been multiple instances of equity funds ending their fundraising early, with 10 equity funds having done so [3][5]. - The market has seen a resurgence in "daylight funds," where some funds sold out on the first day of issuance due to reaching their fundraising limits [5]. - As of September 10, 54 new funds have been established in September, with equity funds (stock and mixed) making up nearly 90% of the total issuance [7]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The total issuance scale for stock and mixed funds in September has reached approximately 35.2 billion yuan, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion yuan, marking a monthly record for average issuance scale in nearly two years [7]. - Notably, the "Zhaoshang Balanced Preferred Mixed Fund" raised over 8 billion yuan on its first day, resulting in a final establishment scale of 4.955 billion yuan, the largest for an actively managed equity fund this year [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation strategy, suggesting a "core + satellite" or barbell approach to manage risk and returns [8]. - The market is expected to exhibit a "structural slow bull" characteristic, with a focus on low-position blue-chip stocks and high-elasticity sectors such as digital economy and specialized new technologies [8]. - There is an emphasis on the importance of liquidity and the potential for investment opportunities in commodities and sectors like non-consumer-related new consumption [9].

Core Insights - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, with a notable increase in investor confidence and demand for equity products since the market's substantial recovery in 2024 [1][3] Fund Issuance Trends - In September, 10 equity funds have chosen to end their fundraising early, contributing to a total of 13 funds that have announced early closures this month [2][4] - The new fund issuance market has seen a total of 54 funds established by September 10, with stock and mixed funds accounting for 47 of these, representing nearly 90% of total issuances [4] Fund Performance and Demand - The combined issuance scale of stock and mixed funds since September has reached approximately 35.2 billion, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion, marking a monthly record for average issuance scale in nearly two years [4] - Specific funds, such as the招商均衡优选混合, achieved a subscription scale exceeding 8 billion on the first day of fundraising, resulting in a final establishment scale of 4.955 billion, the largest for an actively managed equity fund this year [4] Market Environment and Investor Sentiment - The rapid fundraising closures are attributed to a combination of market conditions, investor demand, and proactive adjustments by fund companies [3] - Analysts indicate that the recovery in the domestic equity market has led to a gradual restoration of investor confidence and increased enthusiasm for equity products [3] Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation strategy, suggesting a "core + satellite" or barbell approach to balance safety and returns [5][6] - The current market environment, characterized by liquidity easing, is expected to favor sectors such as technology and commodities, with potential investment opportunities in cyclical goods and emerging technologies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, with many funds being oversubscribed and some closing early due to high demand from investors, reflecting renewed confidence in the market since 2024 [1][2][3] Fund Issuance Trends - In September, 13 funds announced early closures, with 10 of them being equity funds, indicating a strong trend in the equity fund market [1] - As of September 10, 54 new funds were established in September, with equity funds (stock and mixed) accounting for nearly 90% of the total issuance [3] - The total issuance scale for stock and mixed funds reached approximately 35.2 billion, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion, marking a monthly record for average issuance scale [3] Market Dynamics - The rapid fundraising of certain funds, such as the Huashang Hong Kong Stock Value Return Mixed Fund and the China Merchants Balanced Optimal Mixed Fund, reflects a combination of market conditions, investor demand, and proactive adjustments by fund companies [2] - Analysts note that the recovery in investor confidence is a result of a prolonged market adjustment, leading to increased enthusiasm for equity products [2] Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation strategy, such as the "core + satellite" or barbell strategy, to ensure safety and returns [4] - The current market environment, characterized by a breakthrough above 3,800 points, is seen as a positive outcome of ongoing reforms and economic recovery [4] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors like digital economy, specialized new technologies, and cyclical commodities, which may benefit from improved liquidity [5][6]

Group 1 - The market has surpassed 3800 points, reflecting the positive outcomes of China's capital market reforms and the ongoing recovery of the economic fundamentals [1] - The market is expected to present a "steady yet improving" pattern, driven by continuous policy benefits, economic resilience, and existing valuation advantages [2] - Investment strategies should focus on a "core + satellite" approach, allocating most positions to low-valued blue chips in cyclical and certain consumer sectors, while a smaller portion should target high-growth sectors like digital economy and specialized innovation [2] Group 2 - In a bullish market, it is crucial to balance the rhythm and structure of investments, with a recommendation to increase positions during market pullbacks to better control volatility [3] - Key indicators for assessing fundamental trends include net profit growth rates and return on equity (ROE), which are essential for evaluating potential stock returns [3] - There are three major downside risks to be aware of: structural economic risks, the transition from a "slow bull" to a "fast bull" market, and uncertainties in international policies [4][5]

Group 1 - The market has surpassed 3800 points, reflecting the positive outcomes of China's capital market reforms and the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals [1] - The market is expected to present a "stable and improving" pattern, driven by ongoing policy benefits, economic resilience, and existing valuation advantages [2] - A "structural slow bull" market characteristic is anticipated, with investment strategies suggesting a "core + satellite" allocation approach [2][3] Group 2 - In an optimistic market environment, it is crucial to balance the rhythm and structure of investments, with a focus on adding positions during market pullbacks to control volatility [3] - Key indicators for assessing fundamental trends include net profit growth rates and return on equity (ROE), which are essential for evaluating long-term stock returns [3] - Investors should remain vigilant about three major downside risks, including structural economic risks, the potential shift from a "slow bull" to a "fast bull" market, and uncertainties in international policies [3][4]

Global Macro Trends - Global risk assets are under pressure due to economic slowdown and geopolitical trade uncertainties, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold perform well [3][10] - The U.S. manufacturing activity in August shows increased contraction, raising recession concerns, alongside trade policy uncertainties impacting market volatility [3][10] - The market maintains high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, despite rising concerns over fiscal deficits and Fed independence pushing up U.S. Treasury yields [3][10] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China has contracted for five consecutive months, indicating weak economic momentum, yet A-shares and Hong Kong stocks show resilience [3][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is recommended as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm, emphasizing a mix of long-term and tactical asset allocations [4][16] - Strategic allocations include Chinese government bonds, U.S. short-term Treasuries, convertible bonds, and equities from Southeast Asia, particularly India, alongside high-dividend and AI-related assets [4][16] - Tactical allocations suggest a shift towards growth stocks aligned with high-quality development, reducing high-dividend stock proportions in favor of more elastic investments [5][16] Key Economic Indicators - The SOFR-OIS spread has widened, indicating tightening liquidity in the dollar funding market [4][18] - The U.S. financial conditions index has improved, reflecting a slight easing in overall financial conditions [4][20] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index remains positive but shows signs of weakening, indicating that economic data is marginally underperforming market expectations [4][24] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases include China's foreign exchange reserves, trade balance, and CPI, as well as U.S. PPI and retail sales figures [17]

Core Insights - The report highlights the profitability pressure faced by the North Exchange in Q2 2025, primarily due to overseas disturbances and high fixed asset growth, with a forecasted turning point in the second half of the year [3][8]. - The technology manufacturing sector is leading the growth, driven by a combination of cyclical recovery and AI industry trends, while consumer sectors show a mixed performance [3][8]. - The report suggests three strategies to identify high-growth opportunities: selecting companies with sustained revenue growth, those with upward revisions in profit forecasts, and those with high contract liabilities and advance payments [3][8]. Summary by Sections Profitability Analysis - As of Q2 2025, the North Exchange reported a revenue growth rate of +4.9% and a net profit growth rate of -16.6%, indicating significant profitability challenges [8]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a sharp drop in export growth to the U.S., with over 50% of companies experiencing negative net profit growth [8]. - Fixed asset growth reached a historical high of +30.2%, contributing to the pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 22.4% [8]. Industry Structure - The technology manufacturing sector is experiencing high growth, with key industries such as computing, telecommunications, and electrical equipment showing positive trends [8]. - The report notes a structural recovery in midstream manufacturing, particularly in traditional robotics and engineering machinery, alongside emerging industries [8]. - Consumer sectors are experiencing a mixed recovery, with agriculture and forestry showing potential for improvement [8]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends identifying companies with consistent upward trends in revenue and net profit growth over the past four quarters, highlighting specific companies like Kaiter and Fujida [3][8]. - It also suggests focusing on companies with upward revisions in profit forecasts, such as Shuguang Shuchuang and Naconoer, which have seen significant increases in expected net profit growth [3][8]. - Companies with high contract liabilities and advance payments, like Kangnong Agriculture and Kun工科技, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 科技制造引领，寻找景气成长 ——北交所25年二季报总结 2025.09.02 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 主要内容 2 ◼ 北证二季报盈利压力再现。截至25Q2，北证单季营收增速+4.9%、环比-0.4pct，单季归母净利润增速-16.6%、环比 -8.8pct，ROEttm达+6.0%、环比-0.1pct；拆分ROE来看，25Q2，北证资产周转率TTM达62.6%、环比+0.5pct， 北证销售净利率TTM达5.5%、环比-0.2pct。其中，盈利压力主要源于两方面，1）Q2海外扰动影响显现，我国对美 出口增速大幅下滑，25Q2，北证出口50%以上企业单季扣非净利润增速转负、达-4.4%，环比-21.0pct。2）供给压 力、北证固定资产增速达历史高位，25Q2，北证固定资产增速达+30.2%、环比+2.0pct，处于历史高位，对北证盈 利能力形成压力，25Q2北证毛利率TTM达22.4%、环比-0.3pct，下滑幅度高于其他板块。展望后续，固定资产增速 的拐点有望在下半年出现，关注北证供给优化后的盈利弹性，截至2 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, driven by structural factors [3] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%, while the new orders index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, still indicating contraction [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.3%, maintaining an expansionary stance, with the service sector benefiting from summer travel and a strong capital market [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5%, reflecting a synchronized recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [4] Company Research: Keli Sensor (603662) - Keli Sensor reported a revenue of 685 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, and a net profit of 173 million yuan, up 47.93% [5] - The company has made significant progress in the robot sensor sector, with over 50 domestic robot companies receiving samples, and sales of six-dimensional force sensors nearing 1,000 units [6] - Keli Sensor has increased its R&D investment, with new automated testing equipment enhancing product precision and production efficiency [6] Company Research: Zijin Mining (601899) - Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 167.71 billion yuan in H1 2025, a growth of 11.5%, and a net profit of 23.29 billion yuan, up 54.41% [8] - The company reported increases in gold and copper production, with gold output from mines rising by 16.3% and copper by 9.3% [8] - Zijin Mining's gross profit margin improved to 23.75%, driven by higher metal prices and effective cost management [8] Company Research: Zhongjin Gold (600489) - Zhongjin Gold's revenue for H1 2025 reached 35.07 billion yuan, a 22.9% increase, with a net profit of 2.695 billion yuan, up 54.64% [12] - The company produced 9.13 tons of gold and 19.32 tons of refined gold, with significant price increases in gold contributing to revenue growth [12] - Zhongjin Gold has intensified exploration efforts, investing 133.38 million yuan in geological exploration, resulting in an increase in gold reserves [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.95 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.28%, with Q2 revenue at 1.037 billion yuan, up 27.05% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [3] - The main revenue driver is the CMP equipment, with significant growth in new orders for advanced processes, and a notable increase in orders for thinning equipment in advanced packaging [3] - The gross profit margin remains high at 46.08%, with a slight decline in net profit margin due to increased expenses related to the acquisition of a subsidiary [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was 505 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.82%, while the net profit margin was 25.92%, down 2.99 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company expects substantial growth in new orders in H2 2025, driven by the expansion of advanced processes and non-CMP businesses [3] Business Segments - CMP equipment orders have a significant share in new contracts, with advanced processes gaining traction among major clients [5] - The advanced packaging segment is seeing rapid growth, with successful validation of various equipment types [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 4.55 billion, 5.87 billion, and 7.59 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 1.35 billion, 1.73 billion, and 2.22 billion yuan [6] - The report indicates a projected EPS of 3.81, 4.89, and 6.28 yuan for the same period, with PE ratios of 34.09, 26.56, and 20.69 [6]