Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8%, showing a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of recovery [1][7] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating it is at the critical point [1][7] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The production index for September is at 51.9%, rising by 1.1 percentage points, reaching a nearly six-month high, indicating active manufacturing production [2][8] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting an improvement in market demand [2][8] - The new export orders index is at 47.8%, increasing by 0.6 percentage points, but external demand remains low [2][8] - The major raw materials purchase price index is at 53.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, decreasing by 0.9 percentage points, leading to a widening price scissors gap of 5 percentage points, the highest level this year [2][8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service industry business activity index is at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [3][9] - Specific sectors such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating rapid growth [3][9] - However, sectors closely related to consumer travel, such as dining and entertainment, have dropped below the critical point due to the end of the summer effect [3][9] - The business activity expectation index is at 56.3%, consistently above 55.0% this year, indicating stable optimism among service industry enterprises [3][9] Construction Sector - The construction industry business activity index is at 49.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold [3][10] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector is at 52.4%, up by 0.7 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among construction enterprises regarding market development [3][10] Overall Economic Outlook - The September PMI data indicates a continuation of economic recovery, albeit at a weak pace, with manufacturing improving but not yet entering the expansion zone, and non-manufacturing growth momentum weakening [3][10] - The report suggests that the actual year-on-year GDP growth for the third quarter may be below 5% [1][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the market quickly digested the expectations and entered a volatile phase. The technology sector remains the dominant theme in the market. As the long holiday approaches, there are structural rotations in some sectors [3]. - The strength of the stock market has suppressed the performance of ultra - long bonds, which are significantly weaker. The T2512 contract has support around 107.4 [3]. - The US government shutdown crisis has continued to escalate, causing precious metals to maintain a strong upward trend. Silver is expected to reach a new historical high [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap in the steel market is narrowing, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The decline in shipments, increase in hot metal production, and replenishment demand support the high - level volatile operation of iron ore prices [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Sector - **Equity Index**: Driven by brokerage stocks, the equity index fluctuated upward. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on the MO2511 contract with a strike price around 6800 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the face of a strong stock market, ultra - long bonds are weak. It is recommended for investors to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to PMI data. Before the National Day holiday, consider buying straddle options to capture overseas market fluctuations, and later, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The US government shutdown has boosted precious metals. Silver is expected to reach new highs, but the upward trend may moderate from October to November. It is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Container Freight (European Line)**: The EC market is weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts on dips [3]. Black Metals Sector - **Steel**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory pressure is low. Sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. - **Iron Ore**: High - level volatile operation is expected. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 750 - 830), and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, but futures prices have fallen from highs. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 1150 - 1300), and consider the arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coke producers are raising prices, but the upside may be limited. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 1550 - 1750), and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [3]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine, copper prices remain high. Hold long positions and focus on the support level of 81000 - 81500 [3]. - **Alumina**: Weekly inventory accumulation continues, and cost support limits the downside. The main contract is expected to trade between 2850 - 3150 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's further production increase has raised market concerns, but geopolitical premiums provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy and wait for opportunities to expand option spreads [3]. - **Urea**: High supply pressure persists, and demand support is weak before the holiday. The market center of gravity is shifting downwards. Go short at high levels, and consider narrowing option spreads after the implied volatility rises [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Grains and Oils**: Palm oil in Malaysia rebounded, and soybean oil followed the upward trend of the external market. The main palm oil contract is expected to trade between 9200 - 9300 in the short term [3]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be abundant. Trade short on rebounds [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton harvest, supply pressure is increasing. Hold short positions [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has rebounded and then declined. Observe the market cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: The trading atmosphere is weak, and rubber prices are trending downwards. Wait and see [3]. New Energy Sector - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Wait and see for now [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the market has strengthened. The main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the industrial steel market is expected to improve in September due to seasonal demand and weakened production expectations on the supply side, leading to a potential upward price trend [1][2] Group 2 - The steel industry PMI for September is reported at 49.80%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the 50% threshold [1] - The production index on the supply side dropped from 51.90% to 48.00%, reflecting a decline in production enthusiasm [1] - The finished product inventory index increased, suggesting a rise in overall inventory levels [1] - New export orders increased to 50.40%, up by 4.30 percentage points, indicating a positive export situation [1] - The new order index fell to 49.70%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points, showing a slight weakening in the overall steel market supply-demand situation [1] - Raw material inventory and procurement indices saw significant increases, indicating rising cost pressures due to higher prices of raw materials like coke [1] Group 3 - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.40%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight strengthening in the overall manufacturing sector [1] - The production index for the manufacturing sector was at 50.80%, an increase of 0.30 percentage points, remaining above the 50% threshold, suggesting continued growth in demand for upstream raw materials like steel [2] - The new order index for manufacturing was at 49.50%, showing a slight increase but still below the 50% mark, indicating a reduction in new orders [2] - The procurement volume index reached 50.40%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in manufacturing production and procurement [2] - The overall steel production enthusiasm is declining, but the production of rebar and other construction steel remains relatively high, while industrial steel output is expected to decrease in September [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In August, the manufacturing PMI index was 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, indicating a marginal recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index rose to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the new export orders index also increased by 0.1 percentage points to 47.2%[4] - The production index reached 50.8%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase, indicating active manufacturing activities[4] Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - The main raw materials purchase price index and the factory price index increased by 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, marking three consecutive months of recovery[7] - The "anti-involution" policy has significantly boosted the factory price index in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector, with indices rising above the threshold line[2] - However, demand weakness may hinder overall performance in the manufacturing supply chain, as evidenced by a decline in new orders in the electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing sectors[2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, remaining in the expansion zone[9] - The new orders index for the non-manufacturing sector was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating some improvement in demand[9] - The construction sector's PMI fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, indicating a contraction in construction activity[13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After continuous sharp increases, the upward momentum has slowed, and the market may experience short - term shock consolidation. With the A - share semi - annual reports mostly disclosed, the market will enter a performance and policy vacuum period. In the current low - interest - rate environment, the transfer of household deposits will inject liquidity into the market. Policy arrangements for long - term capital entry will optimize the A - share investment structure. A - shares with reasonable valuations will attract foreign capital, and there is still an expectation of policy intensification. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - IF主力合约（2509）最新4510.6，环比+8.0；IH主力合约（2509）最新2979.6，环比+1.0；IC主力合约（2509）最新7014.8，环比+31.4；IM主力合约（2509）最新7380.6，环比+26.8. - IF - IH当月合约价差1531.0，环比+4.8；IC - IF当月合约价差2504.2，环比+13.6；IM - IC当月合约价差365.8，环比 - 4.0；IC - IH当月合约价差4035.2，环比+18.4；IM - IF当月合约价差2870.0，环比+9.6；IM - IH当月合约价差4401.0，环比+14.4. - IF当季 - 当月 - 22.8，环比 - 5.2；IF下季 - 当月 - 44.4，环比 - 3.0；IH当季 - 当月0.4，环比+0.2；IH下季 - 当月3.6，环比+1.4；IC当季 - 当月 - 156.2，环比 - 1.2；IC下季 - 当月 - 306.2，环比 - 8.8；IM当季 - 当月 - 200.6，环比 - 11.0；IM下季 - 当月 - 385.4，环比 - 19.4. [2] 3.2 Futures持仓头寸 - IF前20名净持仓 - 34,825.00，环比 - 1169.0；IH前20名净持仓 - 16,404.00，环比+448.0；IC前20名净持仓 - 15,916.00，环比+2015.0；IM前20名净持仓 - 52,319.00，环比 - 1240.0. [2] 3.3现货价格 - 沪深300为4523.71，环比+27.0；上证50为2981.20，环比+4.7；中证500为7110.29，环比+66.4；中证1000为7501.15，环比+62.5. - IF主力合约基差 - 13.1，环比 - 22.5；IH主力合约基差 - 1.6，环比 - 5.1；IC主力合约基差 - 95.5，环比 - 48.3；IM主力合约基差 - 120.6，环比 - 48.5. [2] 3.4市场情绪 - A股成交额（日，亿元）27,776.47，环比 - 525.51；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）22,613.49，环比+174.21；北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）3775.60，环比 - 162.49；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元） - 2884.0，环比+1827.0；主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元） - 793.82，环比 - 571.43. - 上涨股票比例（日，%）59.11，环比+22.29；Shibor（日，%）1.315，环比 - 0.016. - IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2509）93.20，环比 - 14.00；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）19.70，环比 - 3.26；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2509）77.20，环比 - 20.60；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）19.70，环比 - 3.26. - 沪深300指数20日波动率（%）13.40，无变化；成交量PCR（%）56.70，环比+7.07；持仓量PCR（%）86.54，环比+1.29. [2] 3.5 Wind市场强弱分析 - 全部A股6.50，环比+1.40；技术面5.90，环比+2.30；资金面7.00，环比+0.50. [2] 3.6行业消息 - 中国8月官方制造业PMI、非制造业PMI和综合PMI分别为49.4%、50.3%和50.5%，环比升0.1、0.2和0.3个百分点. - 截至8月30日，A股已有5424家上市公司披露2025年半年报。上半年营收总计34.99万亿元，同比增长0.02%；归母净利润总计2.99万亿元，同比增长2.45%.其中4178家实现盈利（占比77%），2908家归母净利润同比增长（54%），661家增幅超100%. [2] 3.7重点关注数据 - 9/2 17:00 欧元区8月HCPI、核心HCPI初值；22:00 美国8月ISM制造业PMI. - 9/3 22:00 美国7月JOLTs职位空缺. - 9/4 19:30 - 20:30 美国8月挑战者企业裁员人数、ADP就业人数、7月贸易帐. - 9/5 20:30 美国8月非农就业人数、失业率、劳动参与率. [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 49.4, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of 49.3, but remains below the 50% threshold for the fifth consecutive month, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[3] - The production index for August rose to 50.8, up by 0.3 percentage points, while the new orders index increased to 49.5, up by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting marginal improvement in production relative to demand[7] - The new export orders index stood at 47.2, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, with July exports showing a strong year-on-year growth of 7.2%, indicating a gradual reduction in tariff impacts[11] Group 2: Construction Sector Insights - The construction PMI fell to 49.1, down by 1.5 percentage points from the previous value of 50.6, highlighting a significant decline in construction activity[4] - The new orders index for construction dropped to 40.6, indicating weak real estate sales and a slowdown in the issuance of special bonds, leading to insufficient new projects[12] - Despite a rebound in the employment index, the supply-demand imbalance continues to hinder overall non-manufacturing expansion momentum[12] Group 3: Investment Recommendations and Risks - Manufacturing sector shows slight month-on-month improvement but remains below the threshold, indicating no significant recovery; external demand remains resilient but may face challenges post-tariff exemption period ending in November[5] - In light of weak domestic demand, expectations for monetary policy easing, including potential rate cuts, may arise following the Federal Reserve's decisions[18] - Risks include unexpected impacts from tariffs on manufacturing, slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence, and potential shortcomings in industrial policy[19]

Group 1 - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, indicating a slight recovery in economic sentiment [1] - The production index for manufacturing was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production expansion [2] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.5%, showing a 0.1 percentage point increase from last month, with certain sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics performing significantly better than the overall manufacturing sector [2] Group 2 - The high-tech manufacturing PMI and equipment manufacturing PMI were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, indicating sustained support and leadership in these sectors [3] - The production and business activity expectation index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market conditions [3] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, with the new orders index rising to 46.6%, indicating a stabilization in supply and demand [4] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, with sectors like capital market services showing particularly strong growth [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1% due to adverse weather conditions, but the business activity expectation index remained slightly above 50 at 51.7% [5]

Group 1 - The manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, indicating a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.5%, rising by 0.3 percentage points, suggesting overall economic expansion in China [1][2][5] - The production index in the manufacturing sector is 50.8%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, indicating accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index stands at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from last month, with certain industries like pharmaceuticals and electronics showing significantly higher production and new orders indices compared to the overall manufacturing sector [2] Group 2 - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices are 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, both showing increases of 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in market price levels [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI and equipment manufacturing PMI are at 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, with increases of 1.3 and 0.2 percentage points, suggesting a strengthening leading role in these sectors [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, with a new orders index of 46.6%, which is a 0.9 percentage point increase, indicating stable supply and demand conditions [4] Group 3 - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.5%, up by 0.5 percentage points, reaching a yearly high, with certain industries like capital market services showing indices above 70.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index has decreased to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions affecting production [4] - Overall, the comprehensive PMI output index remains in the expansion zone, with manufacturing production and non-manufacturing business activity indices indicating accelerated overall business activities [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures stopped falling and stabilized. The improvement of PMI data in Europe and the US and the dovish interpretation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, improving market risk appetite. Domestically, the A-share market continued to strengthen [3][10]. - Fundamentally, LME zinc inventories continued to decline, supporting the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic zinc markets. Affected by concentrated arrivals, the zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations, and refineries had sufficient raw material inventories, supporting stable production. The imports of refined zinc decreased in July as expected, and it is expected to remain at the current level. The smelting end maintained high supply, while downstream consumption did not improve significantly. After the decline in zinc prices, downstream buyers actively replenished their stocks at low prices, resulting in a slight decrease in inventories, but the sustainability remains to be seen [4][10]. - Overall, Powell's dovish stance boosted the rate - cut expectation and repaired market risk appetite. There were no new contradictions in the fundamentals. The decline in LME inventories and increased low - price purchases by domestic downstream provided support, but the high supply pressure from stable mining and smelting production suppressed zinc prices. Technically, the futures price found support near the previous low. In the short term, with the boost of macro - sentiment, zinc prices are expected to repair with a volatile and upward trend [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | August 15 | August 22 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22505 | 22275 | - 230 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2796.5 | 2805.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.05 | 7.94 | - 0.11 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76803 | 77838 | 1035 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 76325 | 68075 | - 8250 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.69 | 10.37 | - 1.32 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 50 | - 40 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The decline of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) slowed down last week, and it stabilized and repaired in the second half of the week. The market was waiting for Powell's speech for rate - cut guidance, and the low - price purchases by downstream led to a slight decrease in weekly inventories, providing support. The contract finally closed at 22275 Yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.02%. It rose during the Friday night session [6]. - LME zinc fluctuated narrowly in the first half of the week. The market revised its rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar stabilized and rebounded, suppressing the LME zinc price. On Friday, the rate - cut expectation recovered, and the contract closed at 2805.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22220 - 22290 Yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 - 0 Yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. In different markets, the prices and discounts varied. In general, downstream low - price purchases were more frequent in the first half of the week, but with no obvious improvement in consumption, purchases decreased in the second half of the week, and traders' quotes remained stable, with the premium remaining weak [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 22, LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a weekly decrease of 8250 tons. SHFE inventory was 77838 tons, an increase of 1035 tons from the previous week. As of August 21, social inventory was 13.29 million tons, an increase of 0.37 million tons from August 14 and a decrease of 0.26 million tons from August 18. The decline in the zinc price center during the week boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a slight decrease in inventories in many places [8]. - Macroeconomically, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest level since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4. The preliminary value of the Eurozone PMI in August rebounded from 49.8 to 50.5, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022, higher than the expected 49.5. The US and the EU reached a framework for a trade agreement, with the EU promising to cancel all US industrial product tariffs and plan to purchase US energy and AI chips worth billions of dollars. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal, but after Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3900 Yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2.2 US dollars/dry ton to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton [12]. - According to customs data, in July, zinc concentrate imports were 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports were 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.2%. In July, refined zinc imports were 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. From January to July, the cumulative refined zinc imports were 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. In July, galvanized sheet exports were 1.1975 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. In July, die - cast zinc alloy exports were 241.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61.21% [12][13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot and LME premiums, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, refined zinc net imports, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [15][16][17].

Core Insights - The strong PMI preliminary value for August indicates robust performance of U.S. businesses in the third quarter, with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.5%, surpassing the average growth rate of 1.3% in the first half of the year [1] Economic Indicators - Both manufacturing and services sectors reported stronger demand, leading to a significant increase in unfinished orders at the fastest rate since early 2022 [1] - Record increases in finished goods inventories are partly due to concerns over future supply conditions [1] Employment and Pricing Power - The rebound in demand has driven a surge in hiring, enhancing companies' pricing power [1] - Companies are increasingly passing on the rising costs associated with tariffs to customers, resulting in inflation pressures reaching the highest level in three years [1] Inflation Outlook - The rise in prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will likely exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months [1] - The combination of increased business activity and hiring, along with the reported price increases, brings PMI data closer to the "rate hike zone" [1]