Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: On the eve of the Fed's interest - rate decision, the number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased, and risk appetite decreased, causing the gold price to rise slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to around - 4.6 yuan/gram. Based on historical performance, the gold price may reach a stage high on the day before the Fed meeting, so cautious operation is recommended [4]. - **Silver**: The market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and risk appetite has decreased. Shanghai silver saw an increase of 50,000 lots at night, pushing the silver price to a new high. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to 380 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment remains strong. However, the sustainability of overnight capital inflows is questionable, and attention should be paid to the intraday position changes [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US 10 - year JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The US three major stock indices closed mixed, European three major stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4236.6 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory remains unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: Before the Fed's interest - rate decision, Shanghai silver saw an increase of 50,000 lots at night. The US three major stock indices closed mixed, European three major stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.72% to $61.16 per ounce. The basis is neutral, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and Powell's speech early the next morning, and China's November CPI, speeches by the ECB president and officials, and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer's defense of the tax - increase plan today. The market is waiting for the Fed's meeting decision, and the increase in job openings in October has cooled risk appetite, causing the gold price to rise slightly. Be cautious as the gold price may reach a stage high on the day before the Fed meeting [4]. - **Silver**: The market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and the increase in positions at night has pushed the silver price to a new high. The sustainability of capital inflows is questionable, and attention should be paid to intraday position changes [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 09:30, China's November CPI and PPI; the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer will attend a hearing to defend a £26 billion tax - increase budget; at 18:45, the Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; at 18:55, the ECB President Lagarde will speak in London; at 20:30, ECB Governing Council member Sharon Donnery will host a panel discussion; at 22:45, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision; early the next morning, various central bank officials will speak, and the Fed will announce its FOMC interest - rate decision, economic outlook, and the US November government budget, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell; at 05:30, the Central Bank of Brazil will announce its interest - rate decision [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.82, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures is 91,299 kg and remains unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it; the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 5, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 18,497 kg to 717,788 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it; the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing. The long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 3.02% to 173,310 lots, the short position decreased by 1.39% to 58,766 lots, and the net long position decreased by 3.83% to 114,544 lots [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 0.70% to 406,455 lots, the short position decreased by 1.81% to 300,238 lots, and the net long position increased by 2.56% to 106,217 lots [5][31]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly, while the silver ETF position increased again [33][35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts started to decrease [37][38][40].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 10 日 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：再创新高，突破 60 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 961.04 | 0.80% | 958.72 | 0.15% | | | 黄金T+D | 956.00 | 0.80% | 954.99 | 0.20% | | | Comex黄金2512 | 4227.70 | -0.24% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4196.37 | -0.23% | - | - | | | 沪银2512 | 13687 | 1.94% | 13788.00 | 2.67% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 13639 | 1.58% | 13756 | 1.91% | | | Comex白银2512 | 58.800 | 2.21% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Although there are expectations of interest rate cuts in the long term, there is supply pressure on long - term bonds in the short term and institutional profit - taking needs at the end of the year, so there is insufficient upward momentum in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. The Politburo meeting indicates that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, so there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the long term, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, considering the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first quarter and the supply pressure of long - term bonds, as well as institutional profit - taking needs at the end of the year, the short - term upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures are under pressure and support, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

截至今日凌晨，纽约期银及现货白银日内涨幅均超4%，分别至61美元/盎司及60美元/盎司上方，今年迄 今，银价已经上涨了近110%。 与此同时，现货黄金上涨0.6%，至每盎司4215美元；美国2月交割的黄金期货上涨0.6%，至4244.80美 元。 其他贵金属方面，现货钯金日内涨幅扩大至2.00%，现报1502.12美元/盎司；现货铂金上涨3%，至每盎 司1692.10美元。 近几个月来，投资者对贵金属的需求大幅上升，部分原因是西方主要经济体债务水平攀升及货币贬值风 险上升。 12月9日晚间，黄金小幅走高，白银则攀升至历史新高。现货白银首次站上60美元/盎司的心理关口，纽 约期银也首次站上60美元/盎司，沪银主力合约现涨幅超过3%，最高涨至14086元/千克，续创历史新 高。 纽约白银 CFD(2603) く T 開 SI 60.38 +1.98 +3.39% 12-09 23:49:18 60.55 持仓量 今开 58.52 最高 振幅 4.37% 最低 57.99 美元指数 99.2432 +0.1444% 月K 分时 五日 日K 圖K 曲号 均价:59.26 最新:60.39 +1.98 +3.39% 6 ...

12月9日晚间，黄金小幅走高，白银则攀升至历史新高。现货白银首次站上60美元/盎司的心理关口，纽 约期银也首次站上60美元/盎司，沪银主力合约现涨幅超过3%，最高涨至14086元/千克，续创历史新 高。 | 伦敦银(现货白银) CFD | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 XAG | | | | | | | | | 60.06 +1.93 +3.32% | | | | | | | | | 12-09 23:57:00 | | | | | | | | | 今开 | 58.12 | 最高 | | 60.07 | 持仓量 | | | | 振幅 57.57 | 4.30% | 最低 | | | 昨结算 | | 58.13 | | 美元指数 99.2406 +0.1418% | | | | | | | | | 分时 | 王日 | 日K | 園K | | 月K | 重零 | | | 均价:58.37 最新:60.06 +1.93 +3.32% | | | | | | | | | 60.07 | | | | | | | 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current commodity market is experiencing a significant divergence, with silver prices surging while oil and copper prices are declining, reflecting different asset responses to anticipated interest rate cuts [1][3]. Silver Market - Silver prices have increased over 4% in a single day, surpassing $60 per ounce, driven by strong market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, attracting more investment [3]. - The tightness in the physical market and potential industrial demand, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics, further supports this price increase, positioning silver as a financial asset similar to gold [3]. Copper Market - In contrast, copper prices have retreated from previous highs, indicating market caution ahead of the anticipated interest rate cut. The prior increase in copper prices had largely priced in expectations of rate cuts and supply constraints, such as mine shutdowns [3]. - The market is concerned that an interest rate cut may signal insufficient future economic momentum, particularly regarding China's recovery as a major consumer, leading to a tug-of-war between monetary easing benefits and demand concerns [3]. Oil Market - Oil prices are declining due to tangible concerns over supply excess, with U.S. crude oil production reaching record highs while demand for refined products like gasoline and diesel weakens [4]. - This situation highlights that while monetary policy can influence asset prices broadly, the fundamental supply and demand dynamics of each asset ultimately determine their price levels [4]. Base Metals - The base metals market is also experiencing significant internal differentiation. For instance, zinc faces long-term supply surplus challenges, while demand from key sectors like construction remains weak, putting downward pressure on prices [4]. - Tin is caught between fragile supply chains and potential high-end demand from sectors like semiconductors, while lead prices are constrained by traditional consumption slowdowns and weak downstream support [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors should abandon the outdated notion of uniform commodity price movements and adopt a more nuanced analysis based on individual asset dynamics. The driving logic is shifting from macroeconomic factors to deeper industry-specific insights [5]. - For silver and gold, the focus should be on their financial and hedging attributes, with increased volatility expected. They are better suited for macro hedging rather than chasing industrial demand [6]. - For copper, short-term caution is advised following the realization of expectations, while the long-term potential as an "electrification metal" remains intact. Investors should wait for clearer signals regarding economic demand from China before making moves [6]. - For oil and base metals like zinc and lead, a cautious approach is recommended until clear signals of supply-side contraction or strong demand recovery emerge, as their price movements are more dependent on industry specifics rather than macroeconomic trends [6].

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨金珊 周二（12月9日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.09%，纳指涨0.13%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47560.29 | 23576.49 | 6840.51 | | -179.03 -0.38% | +30.59 +0.13% | -6.00 -0.09% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7730.60 | 25676.25 | 6846.25 | | -107.15 -1.37% | +12.25 +0.05% | -9.50 -0.14% | 大型科技股涨跌互现，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.14%。特斯拉、谷歌涨超1%，亚马逊涨0.45%， 微软涨0.20%，脸书跌超1%，苹果跌0.26%，英伟达跌0.31%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | | --- | --- | | 4209.390 | 60.561 | | +2.800 +0.07% -0.092 -0.15% | | 加密货币普涨，比特币涨破92000美元关口。近24小时全球 ...

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨金珊 周二（12月9日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.09%，纳指涨0.13%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47560.29 | 23576.49 | 6840.51 | | -179.03 -0.38% | +30.59 +0.13% | -6.00 -0.09% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7730.60 | 25676.25 | 6846.25 | | -107.15 -1.37% | +12.25 +0.05% | -9.50 -0.14% | 大型科技股涨跌互现，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.14%。特斯拉、谷歌涨超1%，亚马逊涨0.45%，微软涨0.20%，脸书跌超1%，苹果跌 0.26%，英伟达跌0.31%。 摩根大通股价下跌4.66%，创4月份以来最大单日跌幅。此前该公司高管Marianne Lake在一场由高盛集团举办的会议上表示，该行预计2026年 全年支出为1050亿美元，远超华尔街预期。 金价银价开盘小幅震荡，黄金站稳4200 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - The market is anticipating a significant shift towards interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut rising from below 50% to over 80% according to CME's FedWatch tool [5] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted the tightness of the U.S. job market, suggesting a potential spike in unemployment, while inflation appears to be temporarily subdued [3][5] - The absence of key economic data, such as Q3 GDP and September PCE index, creates uncertainty for the Federal Reserve, likening their current situation to "blind flying" [5][7] Group 2: Global Economic Concerns - Concerns are growing over the global liquidity situation, with warnings from Bank of America that the numerous rate cuts by central banks this year may soon reach their limits [7] - The decline in Japan's 30-year government bond prices and the weakening yen could trigger a significant outflow of capital, impacting global equity and bond markets [7] Group 3: Company Insights - Broadcom has seen a 60% increase in stock price this year, driven by its role in supplying core components for Google's AI initiatives, positioning it as a key player in the AI supply chain [8][10] - The tech sector is experiencing a surge in bond issuance, with major companies like Meta, Google, and Oracle contributing to a significant increase in overall debt levels [11][13] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on "interest rate sensitive" assets, such as long-term government bonds and fundamentally strong mid-cap stocks, if rate cuts materialize [14][15] - Companies deeply integrated into the AI supply chain, like Broadcom, are seen as solid investment opportunities due to their stable order flow from major tech players [15] - High-leverage companies that rely on debt to finance operations should be approached with caution, as rising CDS prices indicate increasing concerns over default risks [13][17]

Group 1 - The comments from Bank of England policymakers support expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a slight outperformance of UK government bonds [1][3] - UK government bond yields fell by 2-3 basis points, with the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 3 basis points to 5.2%; traders are betting that the Bank of England will cut rates by 56 basis points by the end of 2026 [1][3] - Bank of England official Mann indicated that a weak job market may alleviate price concerns, while Lombardelli expects the Chancellor's budget to reduce inflation by 0.5 percentage points; Ramsden hinted at a preference for a rate cut next week, anticipating rates to stabilize around 3% [1][3] Group 2 - French long-term government bond yields decreased by 2-3 basis points as traders await a key vote on the social security budget [2][4] - Market updates include a 1 basis point drop in German government bond yields to 2.85%, a rise in German bond futures by 20.00 points to 127.49, and a 1 basis point decrease in Italian 10-year bond yields to 3.55% [2][4] - The Italian-German bond yield spread remained stable at 70 basis points, while French 10-year bond yields fell by 3 basis points to 3.56%, and UK 10-year bond yields decreased by 2 basis points to 4.51% [2][4]