Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, the stock index rose first and then fell, showing mixed trends. The trading volume in the two markets slightly decreased. Due to the previous U.S. government shutdown, the latest PCE price index was not available, and the expectation of interest rate cuts did not change much. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the weak fundamental state. Without new positive factors, the stock index maintained a volatile trend today. However, except for the slight convergence of the discount of IF in the basis of stock index futures, the discounts of the rest deepened. The dividend index led the rise again, indicating that market sentiment has cooled down and become more cautious. Currently, both the upper pressure and the lower support have weakened. In the short term, it is expected to mainly show a narrow - range oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose first and then fell, showing mixed trends. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.05%. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets decreased by 735.53 billion yuan. In the stock index futures market, IM declined with increasing volume, and the rest of the varieties also declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, with an expected 225,000 [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.08 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.0893 | 4.2497 | 11.2976 | 18.3443 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.3606 | 0.7008 | 0.6006 | 0.5893 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4196 | 9.2285 | 25.457 | 36.4043 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.4902 | 0.6077 | 0.5482 | 0.2816 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.29 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.25 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.14 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 17097.94 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -735.53 | [6]

Group 1 - The US market is experiencing low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to a clear trend of "dollar up, everything down" with slight declines in US Treasury bonds, gold, and US stock futures [2] - The market's current state is characterized by suppressed volatility, with both bullish and bearish forces resting, creating a situation where everyone is waiting for others to act first [2] - The market is not in a "safe period" but rather a "quiet period under pressure," indicating that any sudden directional movement could catch investors off guard [2] Group 2 - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: Full Firepower, Riding the Waves" suggests that the upcoming interest rate cut on December 10 will have significantly different implications for short-term and long-term financial markets [3] - There is a notable change regarding a critical stock in China, coinciding with an unusual long report released by Goldman Sachs [3] - Multiple reports from Wall Street are analyzing the prospects of A-shares, US stocks, and gold, questioning whether the US bull market will continue and if the narrative for A-shares has concluded [3]

Group 1 - The overall trading pace has slowed due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but market focus on macro policies remains high [1] - The White House has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to Kevin Hassett, who is perceived to favor lower interest rates, aligning with Trump's policy direction [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to over 85%, up from 39% a week ago [1] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data shows a positive trend, with initial jobless claims dropping to 216,000 and durable goods orders increasing by 0.5%, exceeding market expectations [2] - Despite favorable economic data, the dollar index remains above 99.50, struggling to break out of a weak trend due to dominant rate cut expectations [2] - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq rising by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively, driven by AI-related sectors [2] Group 3 - Gold prices have remained stable above 4150, supported by a weak dollar and market bets on a December rate cut [2][5] - The performance of U.S. stock futures will be influenced by the momentum in the AI sector and whether policy expectations can sustain [6] - The upcoming ISM manufacturing PMI data is expected to be a key factor for short-term market fluctuations [3]

Core Insights - The latest Federal Reserve "Beige Book" report indicates a further decline in overall consumer spending and signs of weakness in the labor market, with AI technology applications suppressing hiring demand and tariff policies increasing costs for manufacturing and retail sectors [1] Economic Data Summary - Recent economic data reflects a slowdown in the growth of consumer spending, increasing downside risks in the labor market, and a growing market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with over 90% probability according to interest rate swap markets [3] - Following the rate cut expectations, the U.S. stock market saw a rebound, particularly in the technology sector, with significant gains in chip and AI-related stocks, leading to collective increases in the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq by 0.67%, 0.69%, and 0.82% respectively [3] Precious Metals Market Summary - In the precious metals market, expectations of a dovish successor for the next Federal Reserve chair and the anticipated continuation of accommodative policies next year have contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, resulting in a significant rise in international gold prices, which surpassed $4200 per ounce, closing at $4202.3 with a 1.50% increase [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in spot gold prices is primarily driven by heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, making gold more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][5] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Spot gold prices reached a one-week high, closing at $4163.78 per ounce with a 0.8% increase, and peaked at $4173.31 during the session [1] - Most institutions predict that the average gold price will exceed $4000 by 2026, with Deutsche Bank raising its forecast from $4000 to $4450 per ounce [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December surged from 30% to 85% according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool [2] - The potential nomination of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair, such as White House economic advisor Hassett, is contributing to the expectation of a softer dollar [2] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims falling to 216,000, the lowest since April, indicating a resilient labor market [3] - Despite strong economic indicators, concerns about ongoing economic uncertainty have kept investors focused on gold as a safe-haven asset [3][6] Group 4: Dollar and Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.24% to 99.55, reflecting investor sentiment towards the Fed's easing policies [4] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve showed signs of flattening, with the 10-year yield closing at 3.999%, indicating a complex relationship between bond markets and gold prices [4][6] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book highlighted economic concerns, with many regions reporting weak labor demand and declining consumer spending, reinforcing the case for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [6][7] - Analysts suggest that gold will continue to play a crucial role as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties, with optimistic long-term price forecasts [7]

Group 1 - Gold prices rose to a one-week high as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut increased, with silver prices following suit, up 1% near $52 per ounce [1][2] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has surged to 83%, significantly higher than the previous week's 30% [2] - Economic signals are mixed, with a resilient labor market indicated by a decrease in initial jobless claims, but consumer confidence has declined due to increased concerns about job and financial prospects [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold is experiencing a volatile trading pattern, with key support at $4136 and resistance at $4173, indicating a potential for further fluctuations [3] - Silver prices are showing bullish tendencies, with a current price of $52.63 and support at $51.87, while a breakthrough above $52.78 could lead to further gains [4] - Platinum prices have recently surpassed $1610 per ounce, reflecting a strong upward trend, with support levels between $1260 and $1460 per ounce and resistance between $1800 and $2000 per ounce [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to gold prices rising above $4,100 per ounce, driven by ongoing challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] Group 1 - The long-term upward trend in gold prices remains intact, supported by multiple issues facing the U.S. government and persistent global geopolitical tensions [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in the market during subsequent pullbacks and to gradually accumulate positions [1] Group 2 - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are highlighted as potential investment options [1] - Gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain are also recommended for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices remained stable, with the market assessing the Federal Reserve's policy signals and adjusting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by year-end [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of 0200 GMT, spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $4,154.09 per ounce, while December gold futures fell by 0.3% to $4,151.20 per ounce [3]. - Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilverCentral, indicated that the unclear direction of the Federal Reserve's policy has led to a consolidation phase for gold prices, with the market awaiting clearer signals [3]. - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts, prompting some funds to shift towards interest rate-related derivatives to manage volatility from policy uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Some Federal Reserve officials have expressed dovish sentiments, with New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller noting that a slowing labor market could pressure Treasury yields, suggesting a potential policy adjustment in December [3]. - Conversely, several regional Fed presidents advocate for delaying any easing of policies until inflation data stabilizes closer to the 2% target [3]. - The FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates a high probability for interest rate cuts in December, as lower interest rates typically enhance gold's attractiveness [3]. Group 3: Employment and Consumer Confidence - Recent employment data showed a slight decline in initial jobless claims, but the job market still does not fully meet job-seeker demand [4]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in November due to uncertainties regarding employment and household financial conditions [4]. Group 4: Other Precious Metals - In the precious metals market, spot silver decreased by 0.9% to $52.89 per ounce, while platinum rose by 1.4% to $1,611.04 per ounce; palladium fell by 0.9% to $1,409.87 per ounce [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 27, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment [2]. - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2]. - Zinc: It shows a slightly stronger shock trend [2]. - Lead: Lacking driving forces, the price is fluctuating [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disturbances [2]. - Aluminum: It shows a slightly stronger shock trend, while alumina continues to face pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, and there are short - term disturbances from macro and news factors. Stainless steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of COMEX Gold 2512 and Shanghai Gold 2512 were 4196.10 and 943.08 respectively, with daily increases of 0.74% and - 0.03%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 decreased by 20,269 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 8,514. The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 5 to 1,045.43 [4]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the overall consumer spending in the US has further declined in recent weeks. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased to 216,000, the lowest since mid - April. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%, exceeding expectations [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of COMEX Silver 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2512 were 53.760 and 12,220 respectively, with daily increases of 3.88% and 0.76%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 decreased by 17,011 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 10,273. The position of SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15,582.33 [4]. - **News**: Similar to gold, including US economic data and Fed's Beige Book information [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 86,590, with a daily decrease of 0.01%, and the night - session closing price was 87,090, with an increase of 0.58%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index increased by 19,199 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 6,653. The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 1,140 to 39,825 [8]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has changed little during the government shutdown period. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in October decreased by 5.24% month - on - month but increased by 6.08% year - on - year. The global refined copper market had a deficit of 51,000 tons in September [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [10] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,355, with a daily decrease of 0.02%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract increased by 11,308 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 1,139. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 2,199 to 71,620 [11]. - **News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased to 216,000. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [13] Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17,065, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract decreased by 309 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 3,433. The inventory of Shanghai Lead remained unchanged at 28,654 [14]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, including US economic data and Fed's Beige Book information [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 295,880, with a daily increase of 0.20%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 18,922 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 58. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 22 to 5,884 [17]. - **News**: Similar to other commodities, including global economic and industry - related news [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21,455, with a daily decrease of 10. The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2,720, with a daily decrease of 7. The closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20,695, with a daily decrease of 10 [21]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows economic conditions during the government shutdown. US - Russia peace talks are in progress [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 1; Alumina: - 1; Aluminum Alloy: 1 [23] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,260, with an increase of 1,100 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,455, with an increase of 50 compared with the previous day [24]. - **News**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over an area of more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mine. The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel products [24][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: - 1; Stainless Steel: 0 [28]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market continued its strong performance with all three major indices achieving four consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500 index successfully breaking through the 6800-point mark [1] - As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 47,427.12 points, up 314.67 points (0.67%), while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 189.10 points (0.82%) to 23,214.69 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 46.73 points (0.69%) to 6,812.61 points, all reaching recent rebound highs [1] Core Drivers - The primary driver behind the sustained rise in U.S. stocks is the significant increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with several Fed officials signaling a dovish stance [2] - The labor market data supports this, as initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, below the market expectation of 225,000, indicating a cooling labor market without excessive recession fears, thus providing data support for a potential rate cut [2] - Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped below 4%, reducing the alternative effect of equity assets and encouraging capital to flow back into the stock market [2] Sector Performance - The collaboration between technology and consumer sectors has become a crucial pillar for the market, with tech giants like Google and Microsoft showing strong performance [4] - Google's stock surged over 6% due to positive market reception of its new AI model, Gemini3, which boosted the AI industry chain [4] - The airline sector saw a daily increase of over 3%, and retail stocks also rose, reflecting a rotation among multiple sectors driven by holiday season consumption expectations [4] Market Outlook - Some analysts warn of potential further market corrections, suggesting the need for more risk protection and a reassessment of AI sector valuations [4] - However, optimistic institutions believe that the dual drivers of interest rate cuts and strong holiday consumption will continue to support the market, especially after the S&P 500 index recovered its 50-day moving average, indicating a positive technical outlook [4]