投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面拖累，焦煤震荡调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：5 月 13 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约报收 879.0 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/14 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约收涨 2.71%，报 63.63 美元/桶；布伦 特原油主力合约涨 2.43%，报 66.54 美元/桶。 2. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍上涨，能源化工品表现强劲，苯乙烯涨 3.78%，乙二醇涨 3.31%，PTA 涨 3.25%，丁二烯橡胶涨 2.97%，短纤涨 2.7%，低 硫燃料油涨 2.37%，原油涨 1.7%。黑色系全线上涨，铁矿石涨近 1%。农产品涨 跌不一。基本金属全线上涨，氧化铝涨 1.69%，沪锌涨 1.57%，沪铜涨 0.99%。 沪金涨 0.36%，沪银涨 0.40%。 3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.82%报 3254.50 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.43%报 33.09 美元/盎司。 4. 伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME 期锌涨 1.93%报 2720.50 美元/吨，LME 期 铅涨 1.40%报 1993.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 1.29%报 962 ...

新华财经上海5月14日电（记者杨溢仁）本周，重要会谈结果对债市表现构成了扰动，不过各机构对债 市后续走势并不悲观。 大部分受访的业内专家认为，在风浪渐起的2025年，突发利好或利空都会被快速定价，后续债市的定价 逻辑或重新聚焦基本面变化，4月信贷与经济运行数据是两张尚未揭晓的重要"答卷"，若数据不及预 期，那么债市存在修复的空间，近期跌幅较大的品种料更为受益。 债市短期快速调整 "对于债市而言，关税的超预期阶段性结果无疑对各机构的风险偏好造成影响。"一位机构交易员告诉记 者，"在关税利空一次性出清的背景下，5月12日午间，中长久期利率债便迎来了全面且显著的调整，5 年及以上期限国债收益率普遍上行了5BP至6BP。截至5月12日收盘，10年、30年期国债收益率分别达到 了1.68%、1.94%的水平。" 那么，本轮"债牛"是否将就此终结？ 记者在采访中发现，对后市持乐观态度的机构依然占据主流。 "放眼当下，债市最关心的问题是利率是否调整到位，以及长端利率的高点几何。"华西证券首席经济学 家刘郁指出，"首先，与历史定价进行比较，结合4月2日（对等关税落地前）收盘的情况——当时10 年、30年期国债活跃券的利率分别 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 丁雅栀】中美12日发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，同意大幅降低双边关税。这一消息为全球市场注入一剂强心针， 引发全球金融市场强烈反应。 "关税降幅远超华尔街预期，韦德布什证券公司分析师丹·艾夫斯称，当前对投资者来说是最好的情况。"据《华尔街日报》报道，中美联合声明发 表后，美国股市应声大涨，有着"全球科技股风向标"称号的纳斯达克综合指数飙升逾4%，重新进入牛市行情。道琼斯工业指数恢复4月2日收盘 位。美媒称，亚马逊、苹果和特斯拉等受贸易战冲击的企业股价也集体上扬。服装类、鞋类、运动装备、零售、旅游等与中国业务往来较频繁的 行业股价也在上升。 中国社会科学院美国问题专家吕祥对《环球时报》记者表示，此次共同声明的优点在于明确了"认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要 性"等重要原则。只要美方真心诚意按照原则推进，双方进一步磋商甚至谈判就能够真正开展起来，从技术层面将双边关系稳定下来。 美媒称，全球制造商为中美贸易冲突降温松一口气，但同时也在观望未来。CNBC称，顾问公司GEP供应链波动指数显示，4月，北美波动幅度较 大。据GEP咨询副总裁皮亚泰克所说，北美企业正以"令人担忧的速度"大举 ...

Core Insights - China is diversifying its agricultural imports, with Brazil surpassing the US as the largest soybean supplier to China, and a procurement agreement worth approximately $900 million signed with Argentina [1][10] - The recent adjustments in US-China tariffs have created both opportunities and challenges for agricultural exporters in various countries, including Brazil and Australia [4][7] Group 1: Agricultural Trade Dynamics - Brazil has replaced the US as China's largest soybean supplier, with a significant procurement contract for at least 2.4 million tons of soybeans signed in April [3][4] - The US-China trade negotiations have led to a rise in soybean prices, returning to pre-trade conflict levels, which is a positive sign for US soybean farmers [3][4] - Argentina is focusing on increasing its agricultural exports to China, with 80% of its beef exports directed to the Chinese market [9][10] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Adjustments - The US soybean market is expected to face increased competition from Brazil if tariffs remain low, potentially affecting US market share in China [4][7] - Australia is experiencing pressure on its agricultural exports due to US tariffs, prompting the government to allocate funds to help farmers explore markets outside the US [5][6] - Brazil's agricultural sector is adapting to the new pricing models and is encouraged to diversify its markets to reduce reliance on a single trading partner [8][11] Group 3: Future Prospects - The ongoing US-China trade discussions are viewed as crucial for global trade stability, with experts emphasizing the importance of a cooperative approach [1][9] - China's efforts to build a more diversified agricultural supply structure are expected to create new business opportunities for countries like Argentina [10][11] - The overall sentiment in the agricultural sector is one of cautious optimism, with stakeholders recognizing both the risks and opportunities presented by the evolving trade landscape [5][7]

特朗普又点评市场了。 周二，美股早盘再度上涨、标普500指数收复年内失地之际，美国总统特朗普表示，一个月前，各家公 司还对我不满意，市场上涨真是太美妙了。它还会继续涨，涨得高的多。 不过这一次特朗普喊话后，美股并没有像此前那样盘中迅速拉涨。反之，短线来看，标普500指数涨幅 收窄至0.8%，道指跌148点、跌幅重新扩大至0.4%，纳指上涨不到290点，涨幅收窄至将近1.5%。 回顾过去几个月的美股走势，特朗普讲话对市场的影响非常大： 在4月初，据央视新闻，美国实施10%普遍关税以及对汽车、钢铁和铝材等特定行业的关税措施，导致 标普500指数自2月份峰值，一度跌近19%。 随后，在特朗普4月9日表示"现在是买入的好时机"后，几个小时后，他宣布暂停了部分关税，美股在当 月大幅反弹逾16%。 特朗普的"喊买"并没有止步于此： 特朗普在5月8日再次强调，如果贸易协议与减税相结合能够取得成果，"你最好现在就出去买股票。" 此后本周一，据中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美国和中国宣布暂时削减关税。这令美股周一全线大 涨，标普500指数涨3.3%，纳指100大涨4%。美股涨势延续到周二，标普500指数盘中收复年内全部失 地。 ...

Summary of HCA Healthcare (HCA) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: HCA Healthcare (HCA) - **Industry**: Healthcare Services - **Event**: 2025 Conference Call on May 13, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - **Q1 Performance**: Strong quarter with good volume growth and improved margins, attributed to operational leveraging and effective cost management [5][9] - **Net Revenue Growth**: Net revenue per unit increased by 3%, indicating solid top-line growth [9] - **EBITDA Growth**: EBITDA grew by 11% year-over-year, with a close to 9% growth when accounting for state supplemental payment impacts [33][34] Guidance and Sustainability - **Guidance Reaffirmation**: The company reaffirmed its guidance for the year, indicating a cautious approach due to the uncertain macro environment [6][8] - **Volume Growth Guidance**: Volume growth is projected at 3% to 4%, which is higher than the previous long-term target of 2% to 3% [26][32] Regulatory and Policy Environment - **Reconciliation Bill**: The draft bill is seen as largely maintaining current state supplemental payments, which is viewed positively, although it may limit future enhancement opportunities [11][12][13] - **Enhanced Premium Tax Credits (EPTCs)**: The company is advocating for the extension of EPTCs, which are crucial for coverage and cost of living for working families [15][16] Operational Insights - **Labor Trends**: The labor environment is stable, with improvements in retention rates returning to pre-pandemic levels. The company has invested in workforce development through partnerships with nursing schools [37][38][41] - **Professional Fees**: Professional fees are growing faster than inflation, with a reported 11% increase year-over-year. The company is working to stabilize these costs [42][43] Market Dynamics - **Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASCs)**: The ASC business is experiencing mid-single-digit net revenue growth, although there have been slight volume declines in lower acuity cases [59][60] - **Non-Hospital Assets**: The company has expanded to 2,750 sites of care, with outpatient revenue growth outpacing inpatient revenue growth [61][62] Capital Allocation and Financial Strategy - **Leverage Ratio**: The leverage ratio stands at 3.1, within the targeted range of 2.75 to 3.75, indicating a strong balance sheet [65] - **Capital Investments**: The company plans to maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, including investments in facilities, dividends, mergers and acquisitions, and share repurchases [65][68] Future Considerations - **Impact of Federal Health Policy Changes**: The company is preparing for potential adverse impacts from federal health policy changes and tariffs, with flexibility in capital allocation plans [67][68] Additional Insights - **Market Demand**: There are no current indications of deferred care or pull-forward utilization due to economic concerns, suggesting stable demand in the first quarter [28] - **Contracting with Payers**: The company is over 90% contracted for 2025 and 75% for 2026, indicating strong relationships with payers despite ongoing negotiations [50][51][55] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the HCA Healthcare conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the company's current performance, strategic outlook, and market dynamics.

Summary of GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC) - **Event**: BofA Healthcare Conference - **Date**: May 13, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Tariff Impact**: GEHC has been significantly affected by tariffs between the U.S. and China, with an estimated impact of approximately $0.85 per share, of which $0.65 is related to U.S.-China tariffs [5][12][14] - **Tariff Reduction**: The recent reduction in tariffs is viewed positively, with a potential benefit of about $0.40 per share if tariffs decrease by 100 basis points on both sides [8][12] - **Future Guidance**: The company plans to refresh its guidance in July, depending on the outcomes of ongoing trade negotiations [12][15] Financial Performance - **Q1 Results**: GEHC reported a record organic revenue growth of 4% and a 10% order growth in Q1, following a 6% order growth in Q4 [19][20][21] - **Regional Performance**: Strong performance in the U.S. imaging sector, while Europe showed signs of recovery with solid order growth despite a reported 0% revenue growth [22][23][25] - **China Market**: Anticipated low single-digit decline in China, with expectations for recovery in the second half of the year [24][49] Market Dynamics - **Hospital CapEx Environment**: The overall hospital capital expenditure environment remains robust, with no significant concerns about recession impacting buying behavior [27][28] - **Global Procedure Growth**: Continued healthy growth in global procedures, which is beneficial for the pharmaceutical diagnostic business [29] Future Outlook - **2026 Projections**: GEHC expects the tariff impact in 2026 to be less than $0.85 due to mitigating steps taken, including dual sourcing and local manufacturing [13][14] - **Order Momentum**: The company is optimistic about maintaining order momentum and achieving mid-single-digit growth in the coming years, particularly as new products are launched [39][55] Product Launch - **Vocado Launch**: The launch of Vocado is progressing well, with expectations to exceed $30 million in sales for the first year, contingent on successful execution of various operational elements [56][62][63] Additional Considerations - **Backlog and Book-to-Bill Ratio**: The company emphasizes the importance of backlog and book-to-bill ratios in assessing revenue potential, alongside order growth [44] - **Long-term Strategy**: GEHC is focused on innovation, commercial excellence, and digital initiatives to support long-term financial performance [43]

今天凌晨，她和美国客户约好这两天收到30%的定金后，工厂就会开始生产他们的订单。 中新社义乌5月13日电(柴燕菲董易鑫)"'联合声明'一出，美国客商立马联系我们收定金、恢复之前的订 单，快速生产出货。"5月13日，浙江义乌主营眼镜的商户陈海红告诉记者，她与美国客户反复沟通产品 细节，直到凌晨2点多。 陈海红所说的"联合声明"，指的是5月12日中美双方公布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，内容提及美 方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中 方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 义乌被称为"全球最大的小商品集散中心"，超210万种商品发往全球230多个国家和地区，常驻外商超2 万人。今年4月，在美国滥施关税的背景之下，"卖全球"的义乌成为焦点城市。 "我们有50%的订单来自欧美地区，前段时间涉美订单量几乎降到0%。"做了19年外贸生意的陈海红坦 言，确实受到影响，但是信心比黄金贵，她当时就相信转机很快会出现。 "美国市场对中国商品有依存度，从我们这些年不断增长的订单量就能看出来。这次，和我们合作了很 多年的美国客商还说'风浪都是一时的，一起经历了这些变化，反而 ...

Group 1 - Temu and Shein have an opportunity to restock their U.S. warehouses due to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with tariffs on most Chinese imports lowered from 125% to 30% for 90 days and low-value packages from 120% to 54% [1][2] - Shein previously raised prices on goods for U.S. consumers when higher tariffs were implemented, while Temu ceased direct shipments from China to the U.S. [2] - Shein is expanding its supply chain by building manufacturing facilities outside of China to mitigate the impact of tariffs [2] Group 2 - President Trump announced the tariff changes as part of discussions with the People's Republic of China, aiming to address trade reciprocity and national security concerns [3][4] - The National Federation of Independent Business reported that uncertainty around tariffs has led to a decline in optimism among small businesses in the U.S. [4] - A group of five American small businesses is suing Trump over the tariffs, claiming he overstepped his authority in declaring a national emergency [5]