Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold and silver prices are experiencing significant increases, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][4] - London spot gold has surpassed $3500 per ounce, reaching a new historical high of $3508.49 per ounce, marking six consecutive days of price increases [2][4] - Multiple institutions, including Morgan Stanley, have raised their year-end price targets for gold, with Morgan Stanley projecting $3800 per ounce [1][6] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations and political risks, particularly the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence due to political pressures [4][5] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a high probability (89.7%) of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which is influencing market sentiment towards gold [3][6] - The performance of domestic gold and silver stocks has been mixed, with some stocks experiencing significant gains while others have declined, reflecting market volatility [3][4] Group 3 - The outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of continued price increases due to low interest rates, weak economic data, and rising geopolitical risks [6] - The demand for upstream resource sectors, including gold, copper, and aluminum, is expected to grow, supported by limited supply growth and stable profitability of quality companies [5][6] - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as U.S. employment data and CPI, are anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [6]

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 毕竟美联储目前想要引导的是预防式降息，而不是衰退式降息，如果是后者，那么美股直接就完蛋。 因此，这笔账怎么算都划不来。 当然，川普那边的压力还是有的，除了短期的避险以外，我更倾向于推升这波金价的背后因素，是市场在担 心美联储的独立性。 不过没关系，哪怕是咱们今天亚太的股市表现不佳，有欧美股市陪着我们一起蹲坑，心情顿时就不会那么低 落了。 | CAC | 法国CAC指数 7662.43 -45.47 -0.59% | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指導 45143.65 | | -401.23 | -0 88% | | AEX | 荷兰AEX指数 | 885.96 | -10.30 | -1.15% | | SPX | 标准普尔指数 | 6384.76 | -75.50 | -1.17% | | NQYI | 科技100指数 23098.86 -316.56 | | | -1.35% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 1151.150 -304.400 | | | -1.42% | | DAX ...

来源：方华富gold 短线方面回踩到3470后再破高，说明多头趋势仍在延续中，不要猜顶，不懂顺势而为的投资注定只是韭 菜，涨多了自然会跌一跌，但金价当前根本不具备大跌的条件，不管如何洗盘看多头趋势不变，除非基 本面发生转变，美联储降息周期如果平稳，今年金价峰值预计在3730-3880之间，还有很大的空间，目 前高点还没有出现，短线关注3470上升出现高点后，回踩的0.382、0.5支撑做多，另外如果凌晨继续大 幅度上升，周三回踩顶底转换3509就要先多，上方关注3540，日线周期上升幅度拓展的1.618位置，有 根据思路坚定的执行拿多的，继续持有，趋势运行阶段，什么都不用做，只需要耐心等即可。 原油冲击66之后回落，高点刚好是所讲的位置，本周冲高66/67都是布空的机会，66也刚好是日线MA60 跌破后反压的阻力位置，短线65.40继续空，破66回撤调仓，如果再延续往上就需要等67再空。 当前的上涨就是市场定价美联储降息，如果周五非农数据以及本月的cpi支持降息50个基点，金价还有 上冲空间，且后续降息节奏也决定着黄金的趋势运行状态，需要持续关注跟进，如果25个基点，那就是 符合市场预期，回撤调整的概率就很高 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the stock market due to the release of major employment reports, including Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and private-sector payrolls from ADP [1][2] - Weekly Jobless Claims have shown consistency, currently around 230K, with longer-term claims remaining above 1.94 million for 12 consecutive weeks [3] - The Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show modest job growth of +75K new jobs, which is similar to the previous month's report [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in response to lower job numbers, indicating that even a surprise increase in job growth would not alter their plans [6] - The S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports for August are anticipated, with S&P expected to remain at 53.3 and ISM expected to rise to 48.5% [7] - Pre-market futures are declining, with major indexes falling below levels from five workdays ago, and bond yields have surged, indicating market volatility [8]

凤凰网财经讯 9月2日，美股三大指数集体走低，截至发稿，道指跌0.76%，纳指跌1.24%，标普500跌 1.06%。 中概股方面，房多多涨超30%，叮咚买菜涨超5%，小米集团（ADR）涨超4%，贝壳涨超3%，理想汽 车、新东方涨超2%。金山云跌超7%。哔哩哔哩跌超3%，蔚来跌超2%。 全球要闻 美联储突传大消息！9月降息概率升至89.6% 美联储降息预期飙升。华尔街交易员正大举押注美联储将在9月议息会议上降息25个基点。截至北京时 间9月2日上午，芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察（FedWatch）工具显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概 率已升至89.6%。 "抛售美国"交易重现？澳大利亚第二大养老基金削减美债持仓 澳大利亚第二大养老基金对美国国债的看跌情绪正日益浓厚，因担忧华盛顿的政策可能助推通胀。澳大 利亚退休信托基金高级投资组合经理Jimmy Louca在接受采访时表示，该基金 正通过其动态资产配置策 略减持美国债券。该基金管理着3300亿澳元(约合2160亿美元)资产。 公司新闻 苹果要求供应商具备自动化机器人技术 鸿腾精密午后跌超9% 9月2日，港股苹果概念股午后持续下跌，消息面上，苹果公司正加速推进 ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 视觉中国 近期美元兑离岸人民币汇率一度跌至7.11，即人民币对美元是升值的，这看起来像是一件"好事"，但我们深入分析就会发现，这一变化并非完全 是中国经济强势的表现。 人民币对美元的升值，主要是被"弱美元"推着走的 。 2025年4月初，因中美贸易摩擦升级，美元兑人民币汇率一度触及7.42高位，之后人民币逐步走强，一个月内回到7.2附近。如今美元兑人民币汇 率再度走低，一度跌至7.11。与此同时，美元指数从103附近回落至100下方，最低触及97.5。 问题来了，美元为何走弱？以及人民币对美元升值对我们的投资究竟有何影响？ 美元在走弱 美元的走弱，实际上是全球经济格局变动的结果。美国经济在经历了疫情冲击后，虽然通过大规模的财政刺激和货币宽松政策进行恢复，但长期 的财政赤字和债务增加，也让美元在全球市场上面临一定的贬值压力。 截至目前，美债已经突破37万亿美元大关，比债务规模本身更致命的，是它的利息。这笔每年超过1 ...

每经记者|赵景致 每经编辑|廖丹 8月下旬，人民币对美元汇率结束了两个月的低波运行，而后出现较大幅度升值。今日，人民币急升后出现小幅回调。 每经记者注意到，本次快速升值，时间上始于美联储主席鲍威尔8月22日在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话。 人民币汇率的决定因素十分复杂，既有一些长期的、根本性的因素，又有一些短期的、关键性的因素。对于本轮升值，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出， 最近人民币升值既与美联储降息信号有关，也与国内股市走强、人民币中间价的调控作用有关。 "我们认为，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，仍是当前稳汇市政策的核心目标。"王青表示，接下来人民币汇率仍将以稳为主，持续升值或大 幅贬值的风险都不大。 中信证券明明团队对记者指出，此轮人民币汇率的急涨是内外因素的共振驱动，包括美元指数偏弱运行创造了相对温和的外部环境、央行中间价报价释放较 强的汇率预期引导信号，以及近期国内权益市场表现亮眼或一定程度吸引了外资流入等。 值得注意的是，近期，在人民币较大幅度升值后，其对美元汇率能否破"7"的讨论逐渐增多。 对于人民币未来走势，明明团队表示，若人民币汇率能维持偏强震荡，预计相关结汇需求有望继续支撑人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold price is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of further increases in the coming months [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - London spot gold has surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a new historical high of $3,508.49 per ounce, marking six consecutive days of price increases [1]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also hit record highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce and COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest levels since 2012 [1]. - Domestic gold and silver futures in China have shown significant gains, with the main gold contract closing at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%, and the main silver contract at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33% [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Financial institutions indicate that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are the primary short-term drivers for gold prices, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [2][4]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows a 89.7% probability of a rate cut in September, with a significant decrease in the likelihood of maintaining current rates [2]. - Analysts predict that the upcoming economic data releases, including employment figures and CPI, will be crucial for understanding the future trajectory of gold prices [7]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The current upward trend in gold prices is attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations and political risks, including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [4]. - Other metals, such as copper and rare earths, are also experiencing price increases, indicating a broader rally in the commodities market [4]. - Investment firms are focusing on upstream resource sectors, with notable interest in gold, copper, and aluminum, reflecting a shift towards resource-based investments [5]. Group 4: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar [8]. - Historical data suggests that gold typically sees an average increase of 6% within 60 days following a Federal Reserve rate cut, while silver averages a 4% increase during the same period [8].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of further increases in the coming months [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Performance - London spot gold has surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,508.49 per ounce, marking a new historical high after six consecutive days of increases [1]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also hit record highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce and COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest levels since 2012 [1]. - Domestic gold and silver futures in China also saw significant gains, with the main gold contract closing at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%, and the main silver contract at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33% [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Financial institutions indicate that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are the primary short-term drivers for gold prices, with a 89.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [2]. - The market is reacting to macroeconomic policies and political risks, with expectations of renewed interest rate cuts enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Predictions - Analysts predict that the breakout above $3,500 per ounce for gold will initiate a new upward trend, with silver expected to follow suit due to its industrial applications [3]. - The UBS report suggests that gold prices will continue to reach new highs in the coming quarters, supported by low interest rates and rising geopolitical risks [4]. - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar as a key pricing factor [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of slowing down, with expectations for non-farm payrolls to remain below 100,000 for August, and an anticipated unemployment rate increase to 4.3% [1] - The Chief Economist of East Asia Bank, Zhuo Liang, agrees with the assessment of a slowing labor market and suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this month, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] - There is a possibility of data revisions from the statistical bureau, as past non-farm payroll data has shown considerable volatility, which may affect market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Zhuo Liang forecasts a total interest rate reduction of 50 basis points in the second half of the year, followed by an additional 100 basis points in the following year [1] - The article notes that significant revisions in non-farm payroll data in the past have been linked to statistical methods and low response rates in surveys, indicating potential for future revisions depending on the new statistical bureau director's reforms [1]