Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a complex supply - demand and price situation. The supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to position control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in January suggest a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 100350, with a basis of - 250, indicating a discount to futures, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On February 6th, copper inventory increased by 2700 tons to 183275 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, which is neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving down, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is fermenting. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight ore supply, along with geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and an unoptimistic global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in different years from 2018 to 2024 [19][21].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货收涨 2.03%，报 4988.6 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货收涨 1.06%，报 77.525 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约收涨 2.82%，报 1115 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 3.51%，报 19840 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 2 月 6 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 1.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1076.23 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.36 吨，当前持仓量为 16191.09 吨。 | | 有色与贵 | 贵金属 | 黄 金 震 荡 | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 19.9%，维持利 率不变的概率为 80.1%。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：全球市场普跌，铜价同步走软 上周五晚沪铜主力涨近1.5%至101490元，伦铜反弹至1.3万美金上沿。 宏观中性。美国2月消费者信心指数升至六个月最高，经济基本面仍强劲，同时美联储官员放鸽表示仍有1或2次降息空间，美元走软提振铜价反弹。 基本面中性。全球铜累库约2万吨至105万吨，创近6年历史新高，其中境内铜累库至33.8万吨，LME铜累库至约18.05万吨，COMEX铜累库至53.2万吨。 总体来看，节前资金情绪谨慎，叠加高价对终端需求构成压力，预计短期铜价维持宽幅震荡。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考10.05万-10.25万元/吨。策略上， 节前控制好仓位，可考虑布局双买期权；中长线逢低多配。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢：纯镍现货成交清淡，中间品系数下 ...

百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，劳动力市场显示放缓，美联储降息的概率略有上升，对金价有一定的支撑。 黄金方面： 旧金山联储主席戴利表示，尽管物价稳定和充分就业的风险相对平衡，但劳动力市场相对更加脆弱，认为美联储需要降息一到两次，来应对 劳动力市场放缓的状况。 据芝商所"美联储观察"工具，美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为80.1%，降息25个基点的概率为19.9%；到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为 31.1%，维持利率不变的概率为65.2%；到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为51.1%。 技术面：黄金上周在大跌后维持宽幅震荡，周线收长上影线的阳线，进一步上涨的概率增大。小时图来看低点上移，本周有望上冲至5100美 元上方，日内上方关注5080美元的阻力。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 当地时间周五（2月6日）伊朗外长结束了与美国的间接核谈判，表示这是一次良好的开端，对话将继续推进，同时还表示应当承认伊朗拥有 进行铀浓缩的权利。美伊谈判取得进展，缓解了投资者对地缘风险的担忧。 上周公布的美国1月ADP数据显示低于预期，同时初请失业金人数上升以及职位空缺的减少，都显示出劳动力市场在继续放缓，这些数据加剧 了投资者对 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices rebounded on February 6, closing at $4,943.70 per ounce after reaching a high of $4,964.75 and a low of $4,655.31 [1] - The market experienced fluctuations with gold prices initially dropping to $4,655 before rebounding and closing higher [8] Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to quickly reduce its balance sheet, suggesting a decision may take up to a year [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 19.9%, with an 80.1% chance of maintaining current rates [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced that the U.S. will negotiate with Iran again, emphasizing that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons [3] - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that "zero enrichment" is unacceptable for Iran, highlighting uranium enrichment as a core issue in negotiations [3] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests cautious high short and low long positions due to ongoing market volatility and geopolitical tensions affecting gold prices [9]

早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 摩根大通在此前发布的技术策略报告中表示，金、银、铜等金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。然 而，这并非"牛市"终结。 在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。对 于精明的交易者而言，关键的博弈点在于"分化"：相比于黄金典型的"冲高回落"形态，基本金属（尤其 是铜）得益于全球制造业周期的支撑，其基本面逻辑更为坚实，预计将在二季度先于黄金开启反弹。 美国财政部长：预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表 美国财政部长贝森特昨日表示，他预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表，即便是在被提名为美 联储主席的沃什领导下也是如此。 贝森特表示，美联储可能需要长达一年的时间来对资产负债表做出决定。沃什将是一位非常独立的美联 储主席。 "至于如何处理资产负债表，将由美联储自行决定。如果他们转向'充足准备金'政策，我不认为他们会 迅速采取行动，因为这确实需要更大规模的资产负债表。所以，我认为他们可能会静观其变，至少花一 年的时间来决定该怎么做。"贝森特说。 美联储官员释放重磅信号 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新的采访中表示，她认为美联 ...

在经历上周的巨震后，北京时间2月9日，现货黄金盘初持续走高，重新站上5000美元/盎司；现货白银盘中突破80美元/盎司。截至北京时间8时，现货黄 金报5029.785美元/盎司，日内涨超1%；现货白银报79.771美元/盎司，日内涨超2.5%。 北京时间2月9日，日韩股市大幅上涨。截至发稿，日经225指数涨4.52%；韩国KOSPI指数涨近4%。在经历上周的巨震后，现货黄金盘初持续走高，重新 站上5000美元/盎司；现货白银盘中突破80美元/盎司。 本周，宏观数据的密集发布成为市场的核心主线。受美国政府短暂停摆影响，美国1月非农就业报告推迟至2月11日发布。由于美国CPI数据也定于本周出 炉，市场将迎来非农和CPI数据的扎堆公布。作为美联储双重使命的关键经济数据，投资者将据此对美联储降息前景进行判断，或导致市场的波动风险显 著提升。 黄金、白银反弹 近期，国际贵金属市场风云变幻，黄金、白银频现急涨急跌走势。展望后市，多家机构研报分析，当前市场可能仍处于震荡盘整期，但中长期仍看好贵金 属上涨逻辑。 正信期货研报称，当前市场仍具有极高的不确定性。建议谨慎为主。中长期来看，贵金属供需结构矛盾仍存，将受益于地缘政治扰 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储官员释放重磅政策信号。 美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）最新表示，美联储可能还需要进行1次或2次降息，以应对 美国劳动力市场的疲软状况。另外，美联储副主席杰斐逊也警告称，美国就业市场存在突然走弱的可能 性。 宏观数据方面，美国2026年1月就业与通胀报告都将在下周发布，或将给市场研判美联储政策趋势提供重 要参考。目前分析师对1月非农就业增长的预期集中在6万—8万区间，若低于这个数字将刺激降息预期升 温。据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概 率为76.8%。 美联储官员发声 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新的采访中表示，她认为美联储可能还需要进行一次或两次降息操作，以 应对美国劳动力市场的疲软状况。 她指出，当前美国劳动者处境艰难，因为物价上涨侵蚀了工资收入，同时新增就业机会稀缺。 "在利率问题上，我认为我们必须保持开放的态度，非常开放的态度。" 戴利于当地时间2月6日在接受媒 体采访时表示。这是她自上月底美联储维持利率不变以来首次接受采访 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a rebound after a significant drop, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and suggesting that patience may be more important than immediate trading actions [1][3]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $4792.00 per ounce, hitting a low of $4402.14 before rebounding to a high of $5091.81 mid-week, ultimately closing at $4960.86, marking a weekly increase of $95.75 or 1.97% from the previous week's close of $4865.11 [1][3]. Market Influences - The market was influenced by previous selling pressure, easing geopolitical tensions, and the Federal Reserve's comments on potential interest rate cuts, which contributed to a stronger fundamental outlook for gold [3][5]. - Profit-taking and renewed geopolitical tensions led to fluctuations in gold prices, but underlying support from buying interest and inflation expectations helped gold to recover [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. retail sales and unemployment rates, are expected to be favorable for gold prices, reinforcing a bullish outlook despite potential volatility [5]. - Recent data showed a decline in job openings to 6.54 million and an increase in initial jobless claims to 231,000, indicating a cooling labor market that may support lower inflation and bolster market expectations for Fed rate cuts [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices remain above key support levels, suggesting a continued bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining above $4300 as a critical support level [7][8]. - Daily charts show a rebound in gold prices, although resistance at the 10-day moving average remains unbroken, indicating potential for further fluctuations [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4910 or $4800, while resistance levels are at $5100 or $5190 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $77.70 or $74.70, with resistance at $83.10 or $86.10 [10].

Group 1 - The global stock and commodity markets experienced significant volatility this week, with a 1.5% decline in the global stock index and a 4% drop in the Nasdaq 100 index [3][4][5]. - Commodity prices also saw large fluctuations, with gold dropping by 10% and silver experiencing even larger declines [6][7]. - However, by Friday evening, global markets rebounded sharply, with the global stock index rising over 2% and commodities like gold and silver also increasing significantly [10][11][12]. Group 2 - The initial market volatility was attributed to concerns over the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, especially following Trump's nomination of a hawkish candidate for the Fed [15][16]. - This uncertainty led to a tightening of liquidity, adversely affecting leveraged investors and growth-style stocks, which are sensitive to liquidity changes [17][23]. - The Fed's recent comments indicating a potential decrease in inflation helped alleviate short-term liquidity concerns, contributing to the market rebound on Friday [18][20][22]. Group 3 - The tightening of liquidity this year has been particularly unfavorable for leveraged investors and growth/small-cap stocks, leading to potential short-term volatility [23][24]. - Despite this, the Fed is expected to cut rates again in 2026, and there is currently ample liquidity in both USD and RMB markets [25][27]. - Attention should be paid to the trends in USD interest rates in the second half of the year, as the Fed's rate cycle typically lasts 3-5 years [28][30]. Group 4 - A star rating chart for the global stock market indicates that the market was undervalued in previous years (2018, 2020, 2022) and has recently returned to a rating of around 4.1-4.2 stars after a significant drop in April 2025 [32]. - Currently, the global stock index is rated around 2.9 stars, suggesting it is not particularly cheap [32]. - The star rating system indicates that a 4-5 star rating represents relatively low valuation, while a 1-2 star rating indicates a high valuation [33]. Group 5 - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with a total scale exceeding one trillion USD, but there are currently no such funds available in mainland China [35]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across various stock markets, including US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares [36]. - Interested investors can engage with the advisory service to simulate similar investment effects [37][39]. Group 6 - The new book "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released and quickly topped sales charts on platforms like JD.com [41]. - This book aims to address common questions about dividend products and is designed to be accessible for beginners, allowing for quick reading and understanding [43][44].