Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly copper and precious metals, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - On December 26, 2025, copper futures prices surged past 98,000 yuan/ton, reaching a historical high, with the Zhongzheng Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index rising by 3.54% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of optimizing traditional industries like alumina and copper smelting, which are crucial for the national economy and defense [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities noted that the U.S. November CPI unexpectedly cooled, leading to market adjustments for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, which, along with abundant liquidity and supply constraints, pushed non-ferrous metal prices to new highs [2] - The strong performance of non-ferrous metals is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic financial policies and structural changes in supply and demand, including the onset of a global rate-cutting cycle and a weakening dollar [2] - The Tianhong Zhongzheng Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index closely tracks the performance of 30 major listed companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth metals, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market continues to show strength, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risk sentiment, with silver outperforming gold significantly [1][3][5] - Silver's unique dual attributes, serving both as a financial asset and having important industrial uses, are contributing to its price increase, particularly with rising demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [3] Group 2: Base Metals - The copper market remains on an upward trend, while aluminum is experiencing high-level fluctuations, and zinc has shown a pattern of rising and then retreating during the week [1] - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply from the revival of certain lithium mines and a slowdown in demand during the December to February period, leading to a market correction [2] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Egg futures have rebounded after a period of decline, driven by optimistic expectations regarding future capacity reduction, despite ongoing weak spot prices [4] - Soybean meal prices are showing a strong oscillating trend, while corn prices are fluctuating, and live pig prices have seen a slight rebound [1][4]

Group 1 - The lead market is experiencing multiple macroeconomic benefits, with expectations of a weaker US dollar due to ongoing interest rate cut predictions from the Federal Reserve, which could open up upward space for non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [2] - The central bank's signals for continued moderate monetary policy easing into 2026 and potential rate cuts before the Spring Festival are boosting market confidence in lead consumption recovery [2] - Domestic policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and consumption promotion measures are expected to enhance demand in downstream sectors like lead-acid batteries [2] Group 2 - Environmental controls have been upgraded in response to heavy pollution, leading to expectations of supply contraction, which is a short-term macro catalyst for lead prices [2] - The lead price is anticipated to rise slightly today, supported by favorable macro liquidity expectations and a stronger yuan reducing import costs [2] - The industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with traditional automotive battery demand remaining strong while electric bicycle sectors show weakness, impacting downstream purchasing enthusiasm [2]

Core Insights - The global precious metals market has rebounded sharply, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent supply mismatches in key spot markets, with silver and gold prices reaching historical highs [1][3][12]. Group 1: Silver Market - Spot silver recorded its fifth consecutive day of gains, currently priced at $74.37 per ounce, with a peak above $75 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 4.5% [1]. - The silver market is experiencing severe physical squeeze, with the one-year silver swap rate minus U.S. rates dropping to -7.18%, indicating extreme tightness in the physical market [12]. - Concerns over potential tariffs or trade restrictions related to key mineral imports are exacerbating hoarding behavior among investors [12]. Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have steadily recovered, trading above $4,500 per ounce, currently at $4,502.46, with a peak above $4,530 per ounce, setting a new historical high [3]. - Geopolitical developments, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and military actions in Nigeria, have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [14]. - Strong inflows into gold ETFs continue, with global holdings increasing monthly, except for May, and the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, seeing a year-to-date increase of over 20% in holdings [14]. Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market - Both platinum and palladium rebounded sharply after a previous day of adjustment, with spot platinum rising over 5% [6][15]. - The rebound is supported by ongoing supply tightness and resilient demand from automotive catalysts, attracting buyers back into the market [15].

宏观层面，外盘圣诞休市对市场指引作用有限，不过美联储降息预期为市场带来周期性支撑。同 时，"去美元化"趋势延续，临近岁末，人民币开启强势升值行情。12 月 25 日，离岸人民币对美元率先 升破 7.02 关口，为 2024 年 10 月以来首次；在岸人民币对美元日内也升破 7.03 关口，上涨近百点，极 大提振了市场多头情绪。此外，国内央行货币政策委员会第四季度例会明确，将继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，充分发挥货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，强化货币与财政 政策协同配合，以促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升。这些举措有助于稳固市场消费信心，推动经济协 调发展，为金属市场提供了有力支撑。 基本面，国内年底消费仍有韧性、铝锭库存仍处低位。尽管电解铝运行产能略有增加，但近期进口量下 降，供应总体变化不大。现货市场上，年底封账结算使得不少持货商选择不出货或等待后市，而下游因 恐高情绪升温，仅维持最低程度的刚需采购，消费量难以弥补出货缺口，整体出货者居多，现货贴水面 临进一步走阔压力。但市场也不乏存在追涨和节前补货的情况，使得整体现货采买维持在较为温和的水 平。 综合来看，国内市场氛围偏暖，政策 ...

投资咨询中心 2025年12月26日 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】本周，523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用 率为84.2%，环比减2.4%。原煤日均产量187.4万吨，环比减5.4 万吨，原煤库存483.1万吨，环比增4.2万吨。评：目前，焦煤 供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期 扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位反弹，近期 可关注下游补库节奏。 【短评-PTA】PTA社会库存在293.7万吨，较上一统计周期 下降5.37万吨；PTA产能利用率为73.53%；聚酯综合产能利用率 为86.66%附近。评：近端检修较多，12月平衡表去库，而PTA供 应尚未回归,1月也没有累库压力, 较此前预期好转；中长期随 着产能集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善；另外明 年二季度PX检修较多，远端预期较好。低位偏多思路。 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 圣诞节 COMEX 贵金属休市。沪金收涨 1.07%报 1019.6 元/克，沪银涨 5.50%报 18131 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 24 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.71 吨，持仓量为 1068.27 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.4 吨，当前持仓量为 16446.97 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 15.5%，维持 利率不变的概率为 84.5%。到明年 3 月累计降息 25 个基点 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月26日CME"美联储观察"公布利率预期概率】12月26日，CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储明年1月 降息25个基点概率为15.5%，维持利率不变概率为84.5%。 其还透露，到明年3月累计降息25个基点概率 为42.2%，维持利率不变概率为51.8%，累计降息50个基点概率为6.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is experiencing its strongest year since 1979, with New York futures gold prices nearing a 71% annual increase, reflecting historical patterns of market behavior during times of global turmoil [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Multiple historical factors are converging to create a bull market for gold, including frequent geopolitical tensions and central banks purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, which redefines strategic reserves [3] - Market expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, further driving demand [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Gold is transitioning from a mere commodity to a "financial ballast" that hedges against global systemic risks, suggesting a shift in its role in investment portfolios [3] - For ordinary investors, incorporating a portion of gold (such as through ETFs) into long-term asset allocation is recommended to navigate uncertainty, while cautioning against short-term speculation due to volatility [3]

Group 1 - The precious metals market continues its strong upward trend after Christmas, with silver reaching an all-time high and gold approaching its historical peak [1][4] - Silver prices surged by 2.2% to $73.44 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive day of increases, while gold is nearing its historical high of $4525 [1][4] - Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela have heightened demand for precious metals as a safe haven, compounded by the U.S. blockade on oil transport vessels [1][4] Group 2 - Economist Jim Rickards predicts that gold could reach $10,000 and silver could hit $200 by 2026, driven by ongoing demand from central banks and stagnant supply [7][8] - Institutional investor demand, including sovereign wealth funds and endowment funds, is expected to further drive up prices, influenced by geopolitical factors such as the attempt to seize Russian assets [7][8] - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance in the physical delivery market, with a significant disparity between paper silver and physical silver [7][8]