Group 1 - International gold and silver prices have reached new historical highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $4698 per ounce and COMEX silver reaching $94.365 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with notable price adjustments from major retailers such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao [1] - Citic Futures suggests that geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariffs on eight European countries and the Greenland dispute, may continue to drive volatility in precious metals [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic data indicates easing inflation pressures in the U.S., with a weaker-than-expected rebound in the core CPI for December, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - The World Gold Council forecasts that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties will continue to impact the gold market in 2026, with central bank demand and gold supply trends also influencing market dynamics [2]

Economic Outlook - The overall economic data has exceeded expectations, leading to a significant adjustment in the market's interest rate cut expectations, with traders now anticipating the first cut in June 2026 and a total of less than 2 cuts for the entire year[1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased from nearly 90% at the end of December to below 40% for April, reflecting a hawkish stance from Fed officials[1] - The anticipated total interest rate cut for 2026 is projected to be between 75-100 basis points, with potential consecutive cuts from June to September[1] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.29%, 0.38%, and 0.66% respectively during the week of January 12-16, 2026[2] - Silver led the commodity market with a weekly increase of 12.86%, while copper fell by 1.35% due to profit-taking and changes in supply-demand expectations[2] - The market has seen a rotation of funds from large tech stocks to cyclical and small-cap stocks, with the Dow outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq[2] Political Developments - Trump's shift in preference for Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has increased due to Warsh's strong background and connections, which may reduce the risk of Powell remaining on the board[1] - The market is closely watching the IEEPA tariff case ruling expected on January 20, 2026, with a 63% chance of a ruling within the month[1] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump regarding the IEEPA tariffs, it could lead to increased fiscal pressure, as Trump has already collected $133.5 billion in tariffs[1] Risks - Potential risks include an unexpected ruling in the tariff case, excessive interest rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs due to rising market risk aversion following Trump's threat to impose additional tariffs on Europe [2][4] - As of 01:10 GMT, spot gold rose by 1.6% to $4,670.01, nearing the historical high of $4,689.39, while February gold futures increased by 1.8% to $4,677 [3] - The largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings rise by 1.01% to 1,085.67 tons, indicating sustained demand for gold [3] Group 2 - Silver prices also surged, with spot silver increasing by 4.4% to $93.85, having touched a historical high of $94.08 [4] - Trump's comments regarding tariffs have heightened global political uncertainty, leading to increased risk sentiment and a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [4] - The Federal Reserve's potential for further rate cuts, as indicated by Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, supports the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [5] Group 3 - Indian demand for gold remains subdued due to rising prices, while Chinese demand remains stable, particularly ahead of the Spring Festival [6] - Platinum and palladium also saw price increases, with platinum rising by 1.9% to $2,373.08 and palladium up by 0.5% to $1,809, reflecting strong trends in the precious metals market [6]

电解铝 ：商品情绪转弱 铝市场中期仍看好 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 ◼ 衍生品：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 宏观：美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，去年四季度以来资金持续流入推动铝价随板块 上涨，同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。但近日市场风险偏好有所变化，前期强势上涨品种的市场氛围降温带动沪铝资金流出。商品市场 情绪转弱，引发多品种回调。 ◼ 产业供应：供给端刚性预期明显，安哥拉新项目如期投产，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初；欧洲部分产能寻求复产但仍 处于前期规划阶段、所处国家寻求欧盟补贴以应对高昂的电力成本。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注 铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【导读】国际金价、银价齐涨，再创历史新高 中国基金报记者 晨曦 国际金价、银价，双双大涨！ 1月19日，伦敦现货黄金价格最高达4690美元/盎司，涨幅超2%，刷新历史纪录。 | < | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4677.628 | | 昨结 | 4595.515 | 开盘 | 4595.860 | | | +82.113 +1.79% | | 总量(kq) | 0.00 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 4690.880 | | 持 仓 | 0 | ar 물 | | 0 | | 最低价 4595.860 | | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | સ્ત્ર B4 | 五日 日K 月K | | 周K | | 更多 | (0) | | 叠加 | 均价: -- | | | | 필 | | | 4690.880 | | 2.08% 卖1 4677.960 0 | | ...

具体走势上，金价自周初高开至4516.02美元/盎司，先行录得当周低点4512.88美元，之后反弹走强拉升，突破之前高点，之后多头动力减弱，并处于高位 震荡，于周三录得当周高点4642.63美元，周五一度回撤，收复当周大部分涨幅至4536.55美元，但最终触底回升，收于4594.07美元，相对于前周收盘价 4509.95美元，周振幅129.75美元，收涨84.12美元，涨幅1.865%。 张尧浠：黄金支撑因素此消彼长、调整仍都视为多头机会 黄金市场上周：国际黄金再度反弹走强收涨，延续前周多头动力，并刷新历史高点，虽有所回撤获利了结，但多头仍占据优势，后市仍有望继续走强进一 步刷新高点。 影响上，周初受到地缘局势加剧，以及特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查的不确定性加深，引发了市场对美联储独立性和美元长期前景的担 忧。助力金价突破4600美元关口； 之后，虽然一度触及当周高点，但由于芝商所继续调整保证金的影响，加上获利了结。以及美国11月零售销售和生产者物价指数（PPI）表现强劲，减弱 了多头动力，再加上地缘局势缓和，近期稳健的美国就业数据支撑了美元，并使市场对美联储进一步降息的预期推迟至6月。一度打压金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical risks are increasing, leading to new highs in precious metals spot prices, with gold surpassing $4650 per ounce and silver rising above $92 per ounce [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing increased volatility, supported by a macroeconomic environment of easing inflation pressures and a weak job market in the U.S. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve strengthens the case for precious metals [4][20] - Gold's long-term upward trend is expected to continue due to factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank purchases [4][20] - Silver and platinum are also supported by supply-demand gaps, with silver facing tight supply and robust industrial demand, while platinum's demand is driven by hybrid vehicle catalysts and hydrogen energy [4][20] Group 2: Oil and Energy - Oil prices increased by 1.48% in the night session, with geopolitical risk premiums decreasing as Trump adopts a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran [2][14] - OPEC reports indicate that global demand for oil from member countries will remain stable at 43 million barrels per day in 2026, with an increase of 600,000 barrels per day expected by 2027 [2][15] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The Malaysian palm oil production for December was reported at 1,829,761 tons, a decrease of 5.46% month-on-month, while exports increased by 8.52% [3][29] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, which is expected to support oilseed prices [3][29] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that Trump's policies are attracting trillions of dollars in investments into the U.S. [7] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective January 19 [8]

1. Report Overview - Report Name: Hualian Futures Silver Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 18, 2025 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022773 [1] - Qualification Number: F03118676 [1] 2. Market Performance - Price Increase: In 2025, the cumulative increases were 148% and 129% respectively [1] - Spread: Last week, the spread between domestic and foreign silver futures continued to climb, closing at a maximum spread of 2330; the London spot gold - silver ratio fell below 50 during the week and finally closed at 51.02 [1] 3. US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.4 and the previous value of 48.2 [1] - Employment: In December, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [1] - Inflation: In December, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the same as in November, in line with market expectations; the core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, the same as in November, lower than the expected 2.7% [1] - Interest Rate: Last week, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note rose 6 basis points, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen [1] 4. Silver Supply and Demand - Supply - demand Gap: In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, with the market in a state of supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year [1] - Investment Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.444% [1] - Inventory: The LBMA inventory has dropped to a historical low. As of December, there were about 27,817 tons of silver inventory, but most of it is silver physically linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [1] 5. Market Views and Strategies - View: Last week, silver rose strongly and then adjusted, remaining at a high level overall. The market's safe - haven demand support remains strong. The supply side of silver has significant growth difficulties, while the demand side has obvious increments. The structural trend of silver has not changed, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to remain strong [9] - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions in AG2604 in the medium term [9] 6. Risk and Disclaimer - Risk: The report reminds investors to carefully judge the accuracy and integrity of the information and bear investment risks independently [1][11][13] - Disclaimer: The information in the report comes from publicly available information, and the report does not guarantee the completeness and authenticity of the information. It does not constitute the final basis for buying or selling relevant futures varieties [91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - As of January 12, 2026, the company's PE ratio is 31.42x, positioned at the 24th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of investment value. It is expected that the continuous enhancement of the mutual market access policy will elevate liquidity in the Hong Kong capital market, leading to increased market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 30.1 billion, HKD 32.7 billion, and HKD 35.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 17.4 billion, HKD 19.2 billion, and HKD 20.8 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 31.5x, 28.6x, and 26.3x respectively [2][50] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend in December, supported by domestic policy drivers and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 27.8% and 23.5% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The total market capitalization of listed securities on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached HKD 47.39 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [10][15] Trading Volume - The average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong stock market in December was HKD 186 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 19.4% but a year-on-year increase of 31.0%. Northbound trading ADT was HKD 229.7 billion, down 5.5% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year. Southbound trading ADT was HKD 83.6 billion, down 14.6% month-on-month but up 26.5% year-on-year [15][19] Derivatives Market - In December, the trading volume of futures and options decreased month-on-month. The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 517,000 contracts, down 18.8% month-on-month and 12.6% year-on-year. The ADV for options was 823,000 contracts, down 18.9% month-on-month but up 13.5% year-on-year [19] Primary Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong market saw a significant year-on-year increase in December, with 26 new stocks listed, raising a total of HKD 25.7 billion, which is a 189% increase year-on-year but a 39% decrease month-on-month. The total number of new listings for 2025 was 117, with a cumulative scale of HKD 286 billion, representing a 224% year-on-year increase [29][30] Investment Income - As of the end of December, the relevant interest rates for investment income showed a general decline. The 6-month HIBOR was 2.99%, down 0.23 percentage points month-on-month and down 1.21 percentage points year-on-year [39] Macroeconomic Environment - The domestic economic outlook improved, with the manufacturing PMI for December at 50.10, indicating growth. The overseas liquidity is expected to enhance further due to a cooling job market and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [43][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions are driving up precious metal prices, with gold and silver showing significant increases due to heightened risk aversion [1][9]. - Industrial metal prices are experiencing mixed trends, with aluminum and copper facing downward pressure while zinc and nickel show some resilience [9][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic policies aimed at boosting demand, which are expected to support industrial metal prices in the near term [9][26]. Industry Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index increased by 3.94% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index saw declines of 0.45% and 0.57%, respectively [9]. - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen price increases of 1.83% and 12.73%, respectively, reflecting strong market demand [9][15]. Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.65% to $3,129 per ton, while copper prices fell by 1.21% to $12,808.5 per ton [15]. - Zinc prices increased by 1.86% to $3,207.5 per ton, and nickel prices rose by 0.52% to $17,792 per ton [15]. - The report notes that domestic aluminum production is increasing, but demand remains weak, leading to a slight rise in inventory levels [26][28]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are projected to continue rising due to central bank purchases and a weakening dollar, with current prices around 1,034.77 CNY per gram [9][72]. - Silver prices have surged, with a notable increase in demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties [9][72]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise as supply chain issues persist, with current market dynamics favoring a bullish outlook [9][88]. - Lithium prices have also seen significant increases, reflecting strong demand in the energy sector [9][88].