期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 文 | 张晨 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览 上周四（6月5日）欧市、美市时段，内外盘期银大幅拉涨， 分别突破了2024年年内高点，续 创本轮上涨以来新高。与之相对应的是，金价表现相对低迷， 近几日反而出现冲高回落的震 荡走势，这使得金银比价加速向下回归，符合我们在此前《"脱缰"的金银比价修复空间几何》 专题报告中关于"一旦经贸摩擦边际缓和，引发比价以黄金相对白银补跌（亦即白银相对黄金 补涨）的方式进行修正"的假设条件与结论。 一德菁英汇 . 以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 资料来源：wind，CME，一德宏观战略部 梳理本轮白银加速拉升，并非宏观基本面出现了显著利多变化，资金聚焦金银比价回归应为主 因。 此前我们曾对金银比大幅修正对应的基本面限定条件进行梳理，即对应10年期美债盈亏 平衡通胀率（通胀预期）达成出清后的修复，上述修复对应的宏观背景通常为一轮危机后，美 短期经贸摩擦缓和情绪难改逆全球化/美元信用弱化趋势，金银比价中枢上移概率大； 短期金银比价修正目标指向87-92区间，完结后回归基本面驱动； 白银创新高打开金价上行空间 ...

Group 1 - The OECD warns that the recent trend of de-globalization, exemplified by the U.S. tariff war, could lead to a reduction in global trade by up to 20% [1] - Countries like Canada, France, Germany, and the UK are particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to this trend [1][2] - The shift towards re-localization may result in GDP losses of up to 12% for certain countries compared to maintaining the current global trade system [2] Group 2 - The shipping industry is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with the SCFI index for the U.S. West Coast rising from $2,272 to $5,606, a 146.74% increase [3] - However, the high freight rates are expected to decline rapidly due to the recovery of shipping capacity and lower-than-expected cargo volumes [3][4] - Analysts predict that the surge in freight rates is a temporary phenomenon, and as supply chains stabilize and inventories increase, price pressures will diminish [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in the transportation sector, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, driven by the challenges in the global supply chain and the rise of new consumption patterns [5][6][7] - The transportation industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of de-globalization, which is creating new opportunities for logistics and shipping companies [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector, which have outperformed other indices, indicating a strong investment case [28][32] Transportation Sector Overview - The shipping industry is entering a long-term upward cycle, with improved expectations for mid-cycle performance, particularly in the context of supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions [41][43] - The express delivery sector is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on optimizing cost structures and enhancing service delivery, driven by the growth of instant delivery services [42] - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in demand, with expectations for improved performance as travel patterns stabilize and operational efficiencies are realized [42] Investment Opportunities - Key stocks in the shipping sector, such as Yangtze River Shipping and COSCO Shipping, are highlighted for their potential due to favorable market conditions and strong cash flow [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on logistics companies that are adapting to new consumption trends, such as SF Express and JD Logistics, which are expected to benefit from increased demand for efficient delivery services [5][6] - The report identifies high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector as attractive investment options, particularly in the context of low government bond yields [28][32] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the global shipping market is experiencing increased volatility due to supply chain disruptions, which is expected to drive up freight rates [10][11] - The demand for cross-border logistics is shifting from full-service to semi-managed models, leading to a surge in overseas warehouse requirements [17][21] - The report emphasizes the need for logistics companies to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and technological advancements, particularly in AI and automation [24][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows signs of weakness, but inflation continues to decline and employment remains resilient. The Fed's policy stance remains cautious. The intensifying game between the US administration and the judiciary has increased the uncertainty of the global trade pattern. In China, the lack of endogenous economic momentum and the long - term impact of the China - US trade game pose great pressure on the export outlook, leading to rising expectations for increased fiscal policies [4][82]. - The supply of zinc concentrates has shifted from tight to loose globally. Overseas new mine capacity has been released smoothly, and domestic raw material inflows have increased. The overall supply remains loose, with both domestic and foreign processing fees rising month - on - month. In June, the supply of refined zinc recovered significantly and is expected to remain high in July [4][82]. - On the demand side, the local debt resolution process restricts the efficiency of infrastructure funds, and infrastructure performance is "stable but not strong". The demand in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors has weakened marginally. Thanks to the tariff suspension and policy support, the automotive and home appliance industries maintain their prosperity, and the export of galvanized sheets remains resilient [4][82]. - Overall, the drag effect of anti - globalization tariff measures on the global economy is emerging, and its uncertainty exacerbates market sentiment fluctuations. The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The market is shifting from "strong reality" to "weak expectation", and an inventory inflection point is looming. Zinc prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [4][83]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Zinc Market Review - In May 2025, the main contract price of SHFE zinc oscillated in a low - level range. Affected by multiple factors, the zinc price did not change its oscillating trend, closing at 22,225 yuan/ton with a monthly decline of 0.96%. LME zinc showed a trend of rising first and then falling, closing at 2,629.5 US dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 1.9% [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - US economic data has weakened, with manufacturing and non - manufacturing expansion slowing. Retail sales and durable goods orders have declined. However, the employment market remains resilient, and inflation pressure has eased. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, and the market generally expects a rate cut in September. The tariff policy is full of uncertainties [12][13]. 2.2 Eurozone - The Eurozone's recovery is weak, with the manufacturing PMI contracting. GDP growth is lower than expected, and inflation continues to decline. The ECB cut interest rates in June, and the market expects another rate cut in September. The EU - US tariff negotiation is tense, adding challenges to the Eurozone's economic recovery [15]. 2.3 China - China's economic data in April mostly declined, and the impact of tariffs is beginning to show. Although the export in April exceeded expectations, the manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, and the non - manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, indicating insufficient domestic demand. The market expects increased fiscal policies [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global zinc concentrate supply shift**: In March 2025, global mine zinc production increased. Overseas production increased by 4.4% year - on - year from January to March, and China's production increased by 2.3%. Although there were short - term disturbances overseas, the impact on production was limited. In China, the production of zinc concentrates in April was slightly higher than expected, and it is expected to increase in May. The annual domestic zinc ore increment is expected to be 90,000 metal tons [27][29]. - **Zinc concentrate processing fees and imports**: In June 2025, domestic and foreign processing fees increased month - on - month. In April, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, and it is expected to remain at a high level in May [34][35]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - **Overseas refineries**: Global refined zinc production in March 2025 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Overseas refineries have a situation of both production cuts and expansions, and the risk of supply disruptions still exists [37]. - **Domestic refined zinc**: In May 2025, domestic refined zinc production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase significantly in June. In April, the import of refined zinc increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window opened in late April [43][44]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - **Overseas terminal consumption**: In March 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased. In the overseas market, the real estate and automotive sectors showed short - term recoveries, but the medium - and long - term consumption prospects are unclear due to factors such as high interest rates and tariff uncertainties [47][48]. - **Domestic initial - stage enterprises and exports**: In early May, the operating rates of domestic initial - stage enterprises were relatively stable. In June, there is an expectation of a slight decline due to seasonal factors. The export of galvanized sheets has continued its strong momentum since 2024, but the growth of new export orders may be limited in May [59][60]. - **Domestic terminal consumption**: Infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, but there is a seasonal decline expectation in June - July. The real estate market remains weak but shows signs of weak recovery. The automotive industry maintains a high level of prosperity, and the home appliance industry shows resilience but faces medium - and long - term slowdown pressure. The demand in the photovoltaic sector may weaken marginally [61][70]. 3.4 Inventory - LME inventory continued to decline from a high level in May, and the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. The inventory inflection point is approaching as the supply recovers strongly in June and is expected to remain high in July [79]. Group 4: Summary and Outlook - The macro - environment is complex, with the US economic situation and trade uncertainties affecting the global market. China's economic export faces pressure, and there are expectations for increased fiscal policies. The supply of zinc is abundant, while the demand is weak, and zinc prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [82][83].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for the gold market, indicating a strong upward trend amidst various economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May recorded an increase of 139,000, marking the lowest level since February, yet surpassing market expectations of 130,000. This report has reduced bets on interest rate cuts, with the probability of three or more 0.25 percentage point cuts decreasing from 36% to 25% [1]. - Concerns over the quality of economic data and the potential for a rate cut later this year were highlighted by Federal Reserve official Harker, who expressed worries about the growing challenges in the U.S. financial system [1]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of the U.S. Stablecoin Bill and rapid legislative actions in Hong Kong signify a global competition for digital currency authority, which supports gold as a safe-haven asset due to its lack of counterparty risk and volatility [3]. - The rising U.S. government fiscal deficit and debt, coupled with significant maturing U.S. Treasury bonds in June and July, have heightened market concerns over refinancing, further driving risk-averse sentiment and potentially lowering the U.S. dollar index, which may boost gold prices [3]. - A recent decline in domestic deposit rates has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing additional support for gold prices [3]. Long-term Outlook - The global situation is characterized by a breakdown of order, declining interest rates, and a devaluation of the U.S. dollar, suggesting a long-term trend that may favor zero-yield assets like gold as a hedge against rising export costs due to tariffs and trade wars [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **gold and silver markets**, focusing on price movements, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical influences. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Surge**: International gold prices have reached **$3,500** in the first half of the year, exceeding initial forecasts of **$3,000**. This has led to market disagreements regarding future trends [1][2][3] 2. **Historical Context**: Historical patterns indicate that technical analysis may not effectively predict turning points in gold prices. For instance, during previous bull markets, significant price increases were often unforeseen [2][3] 3. **Macroeconomic Factors**: Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, excessive money supply, and central bank gold purchases have contributed to the rising gold price. However, these factors do not explain short-term price volatility [2][3][6] 4. **Impact of US Economic Scenarios**: The potential outcomes of the US economy, including hard landing, soft landing, or inflation spikes, will significantly influence gold prices. Both hard and soft landings are generally favorable for gold [4][5][15] 5. **Central Bank Purchases**: Central bank gold purchases have been crucial in driving up gold prices, with major countries continuing to buy gold, particularly China and Russia [10][17] 6. **Silver Market Dynamics**: Recent silver price increases are attributed to both its industrial properties and its role as a precious metal. This mirrors past trends where silver prices surged alongside gold [8][19] 7. **Investment Trends**: Domestic investors have shown increased interest in gold futures and derivatives, with margin deposits in the gold futures market surpassing **927 billion RMB** [10] 8. **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the weakening of the dollar-centric international system have supported long-term gold price trends [11][12] 9. **Future Price Projections**: The potential for gold prices to reach **$3,500** is based on historical trends following significant economic events, such as the 2008 financial crisis [18] 10. **Market Risks**: Short-term risks to gold prices include liquidity issues and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, which could lead to price corrections [14][26] Additional Important Content - **Investor Behavior**: The behavior of investors in the gold market reflects a shift towards viewing gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation [9][12] - **Economic Outlook**: The overall economic outlook for the US suggests a potential softening, which historically benefits gold prices. The likelihood of recession or stagflation does not diminish the bullish trend for gold [15][16] - **Trade Negotiations**: The outcome of trade negotiations, particularly with major economies, will significantly impact US economic conditions and, consequently, gold prices [21][22] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the gold and silver markets.

5月12日，中美在瑞士日内瓦达成初步经贸协议，双方同意大幅降低关税水平，并建立磋商和会谈机制，继续就经贸关 系进行协商。 在6月7日的"中国宏观经济论坛"（CMF）上，与会专家表示，短期内，特朗普关税面临挑战，中长期来看，世界经济大 概率会形成中美双核驱动、更多国家参与其中的大循环格局。 上海财经大学校长刘元春指出，现在预测中美贸易走向是一件很复杂的事，原因之一在于特朗普将关税作为一种谈判砝 码，而谈判存在高度不确定性，这就导致理解美国关税政策已经超越了传统的政策框架和博弈框架。现在需要更多关注 一些外围因素，如金融市场、两党冲突等。 对外经贸大学中国WTO研究院院长屠新泉表示，短期来看，特朗普关税政策的实施方式面临较大不确定性，主要原因 在于遭遇国内司法挑战。国际贸易法院的裁定实际上是否定了芬太尼关税和对等关税，以及针对中国的报复性关税。在 此背景下，特朗普政府未来很可能会绕开司法限制，推动针对特定产业、产品或者特定国家的关税。 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 5月28日，美国国际贸易法院裁定总统唐纳德·特朗普对多国加征关税的行政令属于越权行为，禁止执行相关政策。一天 后的29日，美国联邦上诉法院批准特朗普政府的上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices is significant, with a sharp decline observed after a peak, indicating a potential for a long-term bullish trend despite short-term fluctuations [1][3][6]. Price Movement - On May 15, gold prices experienced a substantial drop, with spot gold falling to a low of $3120 per ounce, representing a daily decline of nearly 1.8%, while COMEX gold futures dropped over 2% to $3123 per ounce [2][3]. - The peak price of spot gold reached $3500 per ounce just a month prior, marking a decline of almost $400 per ounce within two weeks [3]. Economic Context - The rise in gold prices is attributed to global economic uncertainties, particularly those stemming from the United States [5]. - The current price of gold has reverted to levels seen during a temporary tariff implementation period, indicating a correction in the market [4]. Historical Performance - The current bullish trend in gold began in July 2022, with prices increasing from $1900 per ounce to approximately $3100 per ounce, a rise of 63% [6][10]. - Historical patterns show that significant adjustments in gold prices often precede larger upward movements, as seen during past financial crises [16][17]. Key Drivers of Gold Prices - The slow recovery of the global economy post-pandemic has led to increased demand for gold as a safe haven asset [10]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East, have heightened the appeal of gold as a protective investment [11]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with purchases exceeding 1000 tons annually over the past three years, contributing to upward price pressure [12]. Dollar Credibility - The decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its associated assets is a fundamental factor driving the long-term bullish outlook for gold [13][14]. - Recent downgrades in the US sovereign credit rating have raised concerns about the stability of US government bonds and the dollar [13]. Future Outlook - The trend of dollar devaluation and the diminishing influence of the US on the global stage suggest a continued bullish trend for gold [15]. - Central banks' ongoing accumulation of gold serves as a strong indicator of its future price stability and growth potential [18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors allocate a portion of their funds to gold for long-term holding, as it is expected to yield better returns compared to more volatile assets like stocks and funds [19][20]. - A balanced investment approach should include both aggressive assets and stable income-generating options to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations is a significant step towards enhancing regional economic cooperation and countering unilateralism and protectionism in global trade [2][6]. Group 1: Strategic Significance - The upgrade of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 serves as a strong counteraction to rising unilateralism and protectionism, particularly in light of the U.S. government's trade policies [2]. - China and ASEAN have been each other's largest trading partners for several consecutive years, with bilateral trade reaching 1.71 trillion yuan in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, accounting for 16.6% of China's foreign trade [2]. Group 2: Trade and Emerging Fields - The 3.0 version establishes a dual-driven mechanism of "industrial complementarity + mutual recognition of rules," facilitating cooperation in sectors like the electronic information industry [2]. - It is projected that by 2024, intermediate goods will account for 67% of bilateral trade, with the upgrade expected to enhance supply chain collaboration efficiency by approximately 15% [2]. Group 3: Digital and Green Economy - The cross-border e-commerce transaction volume between China and ASEAN is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion USD by 2026, with service trade in digital payments anticipated to grow by over 25% [3]. - The establishment of a regional green development fund aims to support ASEAN in developing renewable energy projects, with countries like Vietnam and the Philippines targeting a 35% share of renewable energy by 2030 [3]. Group 4: Supply Chain Resilience - The inclusion of a chapter on supply chain connectivity in the 3.0 version aims to ensure the free flow of key products and services, enhancing infrastructure connectivity to address supply chain disruptions [4]. Group 5: Challenges and Cooperation Deepening - Potential challenges include U.S. pressure and significant developmental disparities within ASEAN. A "classified docking" strategy is suggested to enhance cooperation based on the specific needs of different ASEAN countries [5]. - The global economic recovery remains weak, necessitating the exploration of trade potential through cross-border e-commerce and initiatives like "cross-border consumption vouchers" to stimulate regional circulation [5]. Group 6: Global Trade Cooperation Insights - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 model offers an Asian paradigm for global governance reform, demonstrating the feasibility of multilateralism through consensus and gradual openness [6]. - This model emphasizes economic complementarity rather than exclusivity, aligning with ASEAN's central role and China's collaborative vision, potentially serving as a new driving force for global economic governance [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving narrative of Chinese companies going global, highlighting a shift from merely seeking low-cost labor to building global resource allocation capabilities [6][10]. - It emphasizes the challenges faced by Chinese enterprises in the context of globalization 3.0, including systemic local challenges and the need for a new strategic approach [4][10]. Group 1: Globalization Trends - Chinese outbound investment surged by 42% year-on-year, with significant contributions from sectors like new energy vehicles, AIoT, and cross-border content platforms [2]. - The article introduces the concept of "globalization 3.0," characterized by a restructuring of global supply chains and the need for resilience in the face of uncertainties [10][12]. Group 2: Supply Chain Resilience - The focus has shifted from efficiency to resilience in global supply chains, with companies like Lenovo adopting a distributed manufacturing model to enhance flexibility and responsiveness [12][13]. - Lenovo has established over 30 factories in 11 countries, creating localized production clusters to mitigate tariff impacts and adapt to market changes [13][14]. Group 3: Collaborative Strategies for SMEs - The article highlights the importance of collaboration among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for successful international expansion, advocating for a "platform + ecosystem" support system [18][20]. - It discusses the role of industrial parks in facilitating collective international ventures for Chinese manufacturers [21]. Group 4: Cultural Integration and Localization - True globalization requires understanding and adapting to local cultures rather than merely replicating the Chinese model [22][24]. - The article stresses the need for companies to comprehend local logic to ensure successful business operations abroad [25][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes with a call for companies to redefine their global roles and adapt to new global orders, emphasizing the importance of capability, ideology, and responsibility in the globalization process [27][28][29].