Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - **Supply**: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - **Demand**: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - **Supply**: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - **Demand**: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - **Inventory**: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - **Market Performance**: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - **Price**: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - **Supply**: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - **Demand**: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]

2025.08.25-08.29 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量214万吨，表观消费量194万吨，主要钢厂库存174万 吨，社会库存642万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力资金暂无明显多空倾向。 2 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理阶段，耐心等待新一轮中线趋势。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段密切关注等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view is that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The previous trading day saw a rebound in Shanghai zinc with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the reduction of short positions being slightly more. Technically, the price is above the 60 - day moving average with weak support, short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, long - position strength is rising, short - position strength is falling, and the long - short forces are starting to be in a stalemate [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22240, and the basis is - 35, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 68075 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 503 tons to 32791 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation. The LME inventory warrants continue to decrease, and the SHFE warrants remain at a high level [2][6][7]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating rebound trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main net position is long, changing from short to long, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on August 22 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, there were price changes. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22285, the opening price was 22215, the highest price was 22290, the lowest price was 22200, the settlement reference price was 22245, down 10 from the previous settlement and down 40 from another reference. The trading volume was 88662 lots, and the open interest was 107792 lots, a decrease of 2634 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on August 22 - The prices of various zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, etc. showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Aoshang was 22240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 11 - 21, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 99000 tons on August 11 to 117400 tons on August 21. Compared with August 14, it increased by 7200 tons; compared with August 18, it increased by 2300 tons [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on August 22 - The total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 32791 tons, an increase of 503 tons. In different regions, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 475 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 978 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 22 - The LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 41825 tons and a cancelled warrant of 26250 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 38.56% [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 22 - The prices of zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, etc. mostly decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with the price in most regions being 16930 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 22 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters such as Chengshan Yunda, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc. all decreased by 30 yuan/ton [13]. 3.13 June 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - The planned production value in June was 459700 tons, the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470300 tons [15]. 3.14 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 22 - For the zn2510 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (23380 lots, a decrease of 512 lots), Dongzheng Futures (21436 lots, a decrease of 359 lots), and Guotai Junan (16197 lots, a decrease of 2421 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (15360 lots, a decrease of 633 lots), Guotai Junan (5620 lots, an increase of 70 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (5377 lots, a decrease of 66 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (11446 lots, an increase of 93 lots), Dongzheng Futures (8542 lots, a decrease of 790 lots), and Guotai Junan (7752 lots, an increase of 73 lots) [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a weak trend. The coal mine start - up rate initially declined and then recovered, with demand weakening and pit - mouth prices falling. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant, with high and stable start - up rates. Import expectations for September are raised to 1.4 billion tons, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory. Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, while MTO device start - up rates have rebounded. Overall, with increasing supply, shorting on rallies is the main strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis of coal situation**: The coal mine start - up rate in Ordos and Yulin regions has recovered, and the daily coal output in these two regions is around 4 million tons. Coal demand has weakened, and pit - mouth prices have stopped rising and started to fall. Although coal prices have rebounded recently, the methanol auction prices in the inland are firm, and coal - to - methanol profits are stable at a high level [5]. - **Supply analysis**: The price of raw coal has stopped rising, and the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate is stable at a high level. The import volume is expected to increase, with the September import forecast raised to 1.4 million tons, and ports are accumulating inventory [5]. - **Demand analysis**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season with a decline in start - up rates, while the MTO device start - up rate has rebounded. Some MTO devices have different operating conditions, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device being shut down [5]. - **Inventory analysis**: Import arrivals have increased, port inventory accumulation has accelerated, and the basis is weakly stable. Inland enterprise inventory has fluctuated within a narrow range [5]. - **Trading strategies**: For unilateral trading, short on rallies without chasing short positions; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [5]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply data**: As of August 21, the overall domestic methanol device start - up load was 73.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from last week. The international methanol (excluding China) output in the cycle (20250809 - 20250815) was 1,045,457 tons, with a device capacity utilization rate of 71.67%, unchanged from last week. The Chinese methanol sample arrival volume in the cycle was 328,900 tons [6]. - **Demand data**: As of August 21, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.79%, unchanged from last week. The national olefin device start - up rate was 85.7%. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream industries such as dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde have changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Inventory data**: As of August 20, the total port inventory was 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 310,800 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous period [6]. - **Valuation data**: In the profit aspect, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi regions is around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 230 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 0 yuan/ton. MTO losses have narrowed, and the basis has weakened [6]. - **Spot price**: The price in Taicang is 2,290 yuan (- 20), and the price in the northern line is 2,060 yuan (- 20) [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term supply is sufficient, and the spot price is weak and stable. Mid - term, new - season trading drivers are strengthening, and bearish expectations are being realized. Long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution plus planting cost. Focus on low - buying opportunities after verifying the bottom [4][6]. - Pig: Short - term, the pig price fluctuates due to mixed factors. Mid - term, supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term, if policies are implemented, supply pressure may ease after the second quarter of next year, potentially driving up the valuation of contracts in the second half of next year [12][13]. - Egg: Short - term, supply is loose and inventory is rising, with the spot price in a low - level fluctuation. Mid - term, the spot price may rebound during the Mid - Autumn Festival, but the rebound height is not overly optimistic. Long - term, if the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - **Important Information**: On the 22nd, the prices at north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises weakened. The import corn auction on the 22nd had a 16%成交 rate. The number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased. The wheat - corn price difference remained inverted. As of the end of the 34th week in 2025, the corn inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [4][5][9]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term supply is sufficient. Mid - term, new - season factors affect the market, and bearish expectations are being realized. Long - term, the pricing depends on import substitution and planting cost, with policy being a key factor [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Current short positions can be closed for profit. Consider long positions after verifying the bottom. Focus on the support effect of 2150 for the 2511 and 2601 contracts [7]. Pig - **Important Information**: On the 22nd, the national average pig price decreased. The number of fertile sows in June 2025 increased year - on - year. The fat - standard price difference widened. The national pig - grain ratio triggered a third - level warning, and 10,000 tons of frozen pork will be purchased on the 25th [12]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, the pig price fluctuates. Mid - term, supply is expected to increase. Long - term, if policies work, supply pressure may ease after the second quarter of next year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - month contracts focus on basis repair, and far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in capacity reduction. Verify the support and resistance levels for the 2511 and 2601 contracts [14]. Egg - **Important Information**: On the 22nd, the egg price weakened, and inventory levels rose. The price of old hens decreased, and the average culling age decreased. The number of laying hens in July increased year - on - year, and is expected to rise in August [19]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, supply is loose. Mid - term, the spot price may rebound during the Mid - Autumn Festival, but the height is limited. Long - term, supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures contracts are squeezing premiums. The 2509 contract can be observed after closing short positions for profit, and the 2510 contract maintains a short - selling strategy. Pay attention to the 2512 and 2601 contracts [20].

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the external investment management system of Huqin Technology Co., Ltd., aiming to standardize investment behavior, enhance management, mitigate risks, and improve investment efficiency while safeguarding the company's image and investors' interests [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Types of Investments - External investment refers to the company's activities of investing monetary funds or non-monetary assets to obtain future returns [1]. - Risk investment includes private equity and venture capital investments directed towards newly established or rapidly growing unlisted companies, primarily in high-tech sectors [1][2]. - Securities investment involves investing in marketable securities in domestic and international markets to maximize returns while controlling risks [2]. - Futures trading and derivatives trading are defined as transactions involving futures contracts or standardized options, as well as other non-standardized contracts [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Principles - Investments must comply with national laws, regulations, and the company's articles of association [4]. - Projects should be selected based on market demand and the company's development plan, ensuring they are advanced, reasonable, and feasible [3][4]. - A scientific and democratic approach is required for investment decisions, involving necessary approvals and expert evaluations for major projects [3][4]. - The principle of maximizing benefits with minimal investment is emphasized for long-term investments [3][4]. Group 3: Approval Authority and Procedures - The company implements a professional management and hierarchical approval system for external investments [4][5]. - The investment department is responsible for gathering information and evaluating potential investment projects [4][5]. - Major investment projects require board approval and must be submitted to the shareholders' meeting if they meet certain thresholds, such as asset totals exceeding 50% of the company's audited total assets [5][6]. Group 4: Execution and Control of Investments - The finance department manages the financial aspects of external investments, ensuring proper funding and compliance with regulations [10][11]. - Investment projects must be documented, and all related agreements and reports must be maintained by the investment department [11][12]. - The company must establish separate accounts for securities and derivatives trading, ensuring no use of others' accounts or off-the-books transactions [12][13]. Group 5: Risk Management and Reporting - The audit and risk management committee reviews major investment projects for risk and compliance with internal controls [15][16]. - The company can recover or transfer investments under specific circumstances, such as project failure or changes in business direction [16][17]. - All investment activities must adhere to disclosure obligations as per stock exchange regulations [43][44].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with the spot price center shifting downward. The PG futures market rebounds due to the improvement in the international spot market and the low valuation of the futures. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile consolidation trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 21, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained at 4520, East China LPG increased from 4410 to 4398, and Shandong LPG rose from 4420 to 4500. The CFR South price of propane increased from 563 to 573, and the CIF Japan price of propane rose from 527 to 540 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On August 21, compared with the previous day, the prices of South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 8, Shandong LPG increased by 20, the CFR South price of propane increased by 8, and the CIF Japan price of propane increased by 4 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market shows a small rebound. The basis strengthened to 105 (-31), and the 09 - 10 spread was -493 (-29). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4398 on Thursday [1]. Weekly View - **Market Conditions**: The international market is volatile, with freight rates generally in a high - level volatile state. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs has decreased. The FEI and CP have increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has weakened [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The unloading volume has decreased, chemical demand has slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased by 2.06%. Refinery commodity volume has decreased by 1.68%. Factory inventories have increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate is 76.33% (+2.49pct), and the combustion demand is still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the pure benzene and styrene industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: Last week, the operating load of pure benzene increased, with no new maintenance capacity and the restart of multiple maintenance devices, leading to a continuous increase in overall supply. With maintenance mostly completed, supply is expected to remain stable in September, still at a relatively high level. In terms of imports, South Korea's exports to China in the first ten days of August decreased significantly month-on-month, and China's imports in August are expected to decline substantially. Downstream demand is at a relatively high level for the same period, but overall downstream profits have declined significantly. In the short term, supply and demand for pure benzene are expected to be strong, but in the long run, poor downstream profits may lead to weakening demand. Particular attention should be paid to the stability of styrene demand. Port inventory of pure benzene has increased, and subsequent destocking is expected, with an upward driving force. In terms of valuation, the BZN spread is neutral, and the valuation is also relatively neutral [3] - Styrene: Last week, Fushun Petrochemical carried out maintenance on its styrene unit. Supply is expected to be high in August but may tighten in September due to an increase in maintenance. In terms of demand, multiple PS units increased their loads, and EPS had good sales at low prices, alleviating some inventory pressure. Overall, the comprehensive operating rate of the three downstream S products has rebounded, but current demand remains weak, mainly driven by rigid needs, and raw material inventories are high. In terms of terminal inventory, port inventory remained stable last week, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory in August, with a downward driving force. In terms of valuation, the BZ - SM spread has declined significantly, and the styrene valuation is neutral [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - There are no new maintenance plans for pure benzene units, and the current operating rate is at a high level. Supply is expected to continue increasing [3] - Last week, there were no new maintenance devices for pure benzene, and supply is expected to increase. The maintenance of hydrogenated benzene is basically over, and supply is expected to remain at a high level [7][10] - After the peak of pure benzene maintenance has passed, with the commissioning of new devices, supply in August is expected to increase month-on-month [47] Pure Benzene Demand - Downstream overall operating rates are high and are expected to remain stable in the short term. However, downstream profit margins are poor, limiting demand potential. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period approaches, the situation of end - users should be observed [3] Pure Benzene Month - Spread - Pure benzene is expected to undergo destocking, and the paper futures month - spread structure is close to flat [3] Styrene Supply - Current supply is high, but may contract in September due to an increase in maintenance [3] - Last week, the styrene operating rate increased. Although Fushun Petrochemical's unit was under maintenance, overall supply remains high. Maintenance will increase in September, and supply may tighten [52] - With the commissioning of new devices, styrene supply is expected to continue to rise [87] Styrene Demand - The operating rate of the three downstream S products remains stable but is weak. Overall downstream profits are good, and demand is expected to remain stable [3] - Currently, the three S products are in the off - season. Overall demand shows some resilience, but inventories of the three S products are high, and subsequent demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the destocking situation of the three S products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [87] Styrene Month - Spread - Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand combined with improved long - term expectations, the C structure is expected to be maintained [3] External Market Support - The arbitrage window between the US and Asia remains closed. In the first ten days of August, China imported 38,725 tons of pure benzene from South Korea, a significant month - on - month decrease and lower than the same period last year [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No.1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: Buy on dips [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The short - term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the market has seen corrections due to expected deviations. Different industries face various supply - demand situations and policy impacts, leading to diverse price trends [2] - Market sentiment in the financial sector is warming up, with increased liquidity. Interest rate policies and geopolitical factors are influencing market trends [4] - In the agricultural and soft commodity sectors, factors such as production, consumption, and policies are affecting the supply - demand balance and price movements of different products [6][7][9] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, and terminal demand is weak. Although there is a production - cut expectation in the north in late August, the limit - production intensity is not as expected. The short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The recovery of coal mines is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 is high. The short - term adjustment range is limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the bearish sentiment in the black sector is released [2] - **Rebar and Coil**: The production - limit policy in Tangshan is clear, but the production - cut is not as expected. Building material demand has declined, external demand has been overdrawn in advance, and real - estate investment continues to fall. The overall steel market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term futures price is expected to adjust downward to find support [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the mid - and downstream are in the stage of digesting previous inventories. Supply and demand have not improved significantly in the short term. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2] - **Soda Ash**: The short - term spot is weak, and the futures price has broken through the support level. Attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indexes. There is capital inflow in some sectors and outflow in others. The new LPR remains unchanged, and policies are being implemented to support the economy. Market sentiment is warming up, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the Treasury bond trend is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as the US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks are affecting the price. The short - term price is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4] Soft Commodities and Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, and the cost support for the pulp price has weakened. The paper - making industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. The pulp price is expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume at the port has decreased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory is declining, and the cost support has increased. The short - term price is expected to range - bound oscillate [6] - **Rubber**: The impact of weather factors on the main producing areas has weakened, but geopolitical conflicts still have a small impact. The demand for tires is relatively stable, and the inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be strong [9] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are increasing, but the inventory is lower than expected. The export demand is strong. Domestic soybean imports are high, and the inventory of different oils is changing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and correct [6] - **Meal Products**: The USDA has lowered the planting area of soybeans, and the production and inventory are expected to decline. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed have increased the cost. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to oscillate in the future [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the price is oscillating and rising. The short - term supply is still tight, and the price follows the oil price [9] - **PTA**: The cost - side support is general, the supply is gradually recovering, and the demand from downstream polyester factories is increasing. The price follows the cost [9] - **MEG**: The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the supply pressure is increasing. The short - term cost fluctuates greatly, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] - **PR**: The cost is supported by the overnight rise in crude oil, but the demand is only for rigid low - price replenishment, and the trading is dull [9] - **PF**: Downstream orders have improved slightly, and the factory inventory pressure is not large. Multiple factors are boosting the market, and it is expected to strengthen [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil has a supply surplus in floating and fixed storage, and the surplus is expected to continue. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2510 will operate in the range of 2690 - 2740, and LU2511 will operate in the range of 3430 - 3480 [3]. - The market risk sentiment has subsided, and the fuel oil is expected to follow the low - level oscillation of crude oil. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of fuel oil shows a mix of signals. The supply is in surplus, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur main position is short - biased while the low - sulfur is long - biased. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The previous day's closing prices of FU and LU futures, their price changes, and the changes in basis are presented. The FU futures price increased by 0.78%, and the LU futures price decreased by 0.17%. The basis of FU decreased by 33.45%, and that of LU increased by 16.04% [5]. - The previous and current prices of various fuel oil spot products in different regions, along with their price changes and amplitudes, are provided. For example, the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1.11% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period, which is a bearish signal [3][8]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 125 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 94 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil from June 4 to August 13 shows fluctuations, with an overall increase in the latest period [8]. 5. Spread Data There is no specific spread data analysis in the text, only a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread is mentioned [12].