Group 1 - The current market sentiment is weak, with a lack of clear drivers in the spot market, but there are optimistic expectations for upcoming policies [1] - Internationally, stock markets have declined, and unexpected increases in non-farm payroll data have reduced expectations for interest rate cuts in December, although the likelihood of a rate cut is still increasing [1][2] - Domestic events are relatively quiet, but there is a growing call for policies to counteract excessive competition, leading to increased market speculation towards the end of the month [1] Group 2 - The supply side of coking coal is weakening due to a slowdown in strong expectations, with coking coal prices experiencing a continuous decline since late October [1][2] - Despite improved profits for independent coking plants, there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery, leading to insufficient positive factors for the coking coal demand side [1][2] Group 3 - Steel production has seen a slight increase as some steel mills have lifted production restrictions, but overall supply pressure remains manageable due to low profit levels [4] - Seasonal demand weakness is impacting steel inventory reduction, with limited upward momentum in demand, leading to a stable but low trading range [5] - Steel mills are under pressure as profitability drops below 37%, but there are signs of price stabilization, indicating limited downside potential [5]

行业 金融期货周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 | 股指 |  | - | 3 | - | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 |  | - | 10 | - | | | | | | 三、下周公开市场到期与重要经济日历一览 | - | 10 | - |  | 航运指数 | - | 21 | - | | 一、市场回顾 - | 21 | - | 二、集运市场情况 - | 22 | - | | | | 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 年初以来， ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Securities maintains a "market perform" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and resource attributes under the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 19,924.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, and a net profit of 1,170.62 billion yuan, up 7.58% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery in industry profitability [2] - All 18 sub-industries within the basic chemical sector reported year-on-year revenue and profit growth, with significant differentiation among them, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and demand recovery [3] Group 2: Profitability Trends - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin have shown signs of recovery since early 2024, with gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% in the first three quarters of 2025, both reflecting slight year-on-year increases [4] - Sub-industries such as fluorine chemicals, potash fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers have experienced notable improvements in profitability [4] Group 3: Financial Indicators - The basic chemical industry maintains a stable financial position, with a slight decrease in the asset-liability ratio, improved operating cash flow, and a decline in construction projects [5] - Inventory turnover days have increased slightly year-on-year, indicating changes in inventory management [5] Group 4: Regional Performance - Chemical enterprises in Henan province underperformed compared to the overall industry, with revenues of 564.21 billion yuan and 188.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters and third quarter respectively, reflecting declines of 2.21% and 1.03% year-on-year [6] - Net profits for Henan's chemical companies also fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.33% and 26.70% for the respective periods [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PR, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, asphalt, short - term corn, M05 of soybean meal, PVC, PP, some petrochemical products [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Index, Treasury bonds, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, precious metals, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon carbide, glass, pure alkali, coking coal, coke, cotton, pulp, logs, crude oil, fuel oil, short - term soybean oil, long - term tin [1] 2. Core Views - The current macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. A - share lacks a clear upward trend, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation has cooled down, affecting the prices of various commodities, but different commodities have different responses based on their own fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: Short - term market differences will be digested during fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the rise [1] Commodity Markets - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooling affects prices. Copper price decline is limited; aluminum price fluctuates at a high level; zinc has support below; nickel price fluctuates downward; stainless steel needs to pay attention to production; tin is bullish in the long - term [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound; PTA production declines; ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors; PP and PVC are bearish; LPG fundamentals are stable [1] - **Agricultural Products**: New energy vehicle demand is strong, but lithium carbonate has upward pressure; cotton market is in a state of "support but no driver"; corn, soybean meal, and other grains have different price trends; pulp and logs have limited upward space; livestock products such as pigs have over - capacity issues [1] - **Building Materials and Metals**: Rebar and iron ore are affected by supply and demand and macro factors; coking coal and coke are affected by steel prices and supply - demand relationships; glass and pure alkali have limited upward space [1] - **Fuel and Oil Products**: Crude oil price fluctuates; fuel oil follows crude oil; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound [1]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a decline on November 21, with the Chemical ETF (516020) dropping over 4% at one point and closing down 2.84% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Enjie Co., Ltd. and Tianqi Lithium, saw significant losses, with Enjie hitting the daily limit down and Tianqi falling over 8% [1][2] - The Chemical ETF has shown a year-to-date increase of 30.5%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (17.28%) and the CSI 300 Index (16.01%) [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced a continuous decline in product prices for four years, but recent policies aimed at reducing competition may signal a turning point [3][4] - The current price-to-book ratio of the Chemical ETF is 2.37, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [4] - Analysts suggest that the industry may see improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability due to the "anti-involution" policies, with a focus on sectors like pesticides and organic silicon [5][6] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks [5][6] - Investors are encouraged to consider the Chemical ETF as a more efficient way to gain exposure to the chemical sector [5][6]

11月21日消息，三大指数集体低开，能源金属板块跌幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3896.66点，跌0.87%；深成指报 12752.72点，跌1.76%；创指报2979.37点，跌2.07%。 财信证券认为，周四，在隔夜美股以及当天日韩市场转暖的背景下，A股高开低走，成交额小幅缩量，反映出当前市场情 绪仍偏谨慎，需继续等待大盘出现明显的企稳回升信号。短期内，随着大盘近期震荡消化整理已相对充分，指数层面下探空间 或相对有限，但当日大盘高开低走的行情给市场带来了一定不确定性。中期来看，在全球科技投资热情不减、"反内卷"政策持 续推进、居民储蓄入市等因素支撑下，本轮慢牛行情的根基并未动摇，后续A股指数仍存在继续走强的基础。 机构观点： 东吴证券认为，周四，A股市场高开低走，震荡调整。盘面上，海南、银行等板块涨幅居前，美容护理、光伏设备、食品 加工等板块跌幅居前。走势上看，上证指数虽未跌破周二低点3926点，但收盘也很接近，且周四阴线反包周三的震荡十字，技 术上短期往3900点整数关口下探概率加大。创业板指数亦是高开低走，收盘跌破60日均线，且近乎最低点收盘，创业板指数技 术走势看继续向3000点整数关口甚至5月线需 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's third-quarter performance showed revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.2%. The significant growth in profitability is primarily attributed to the rise in express delivery prices under the "anti-involution" policy [1][2] - The report anticipates that the "anti-involution" policy will continue to support the company's performance in the fourth quarter, alongside the traditional peak season for e-commerce, leading to further increases in both delivery volume and revenue per package [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a single-package revenue of 1.22 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.02 yuan. The total express delivery volume reached 9.57 billion packages, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.8% due to seasonal factors and rising prices affecting lower-value packages [2][3] - The single-package cost increased to 0.91 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.09 yuan. The adjusted operating profit per package was 0.25 yuan, down 0.08 yuan year-on-year but stable quarter-on-quarter [3] Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is shifting from a focus on volume growth to high-quality development due to the "anti-involution" policy. The overall growth rate of express delivery volume is expected to slow down, but the company, as a market leader with a 19.4% market share, is less affected by the reduction in low-value package demand [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for the company has been raised, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 adjusted to 89.8 billion yuan, 106.6 billion yuan, and 121.1 billion yuan respectively. However, the valuation multiple has been lowered to 15.2x for 2025E PE, and the target price has been reduced by 10% to 185.9 HKD / 23.9 USD [5][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit recovery being sluggish, supply at a historically low level during the same period, downstream deep - processing orders being overall weak and worse than the same period in previous years, and real - estate terminal demand being weak with high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - Under the influence of the "Anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policies, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, resulting in production losses. The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, downstream periodic restocking has ended, and glass factory inventories have increased. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1009 yuan/ton to 989 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%. The spot price of the Shahe Safety large board remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 9 yuan/ton to 11 yuan/ton, a change of - 222.22% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [10]. Fundamentals - Cost - end - The recovery of glass production profit is sluggish, but no specific profit data is provided [2]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level during the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level during the same period [23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [26]. - Real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level during the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [2][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.303 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamentals - Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the net import ratio is - 0.90% [40].

Group 1: Coal Industry Insights - The 2026 coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with the port benchmark price remaining unchanged at 675 RMB/ton, slightly exceeding expectations [5][6] - The contract signing quantity remains consistent, with a flexible expression for compliance; coal enterprises are required to fulfill at least 75% of their own resource quantity [5] - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, making it more responsive to market changes [5] Group 2: Company Analysis - Zhejiang Natural - Zhejiang Natural reported a revenue of 818 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.48%, but Q3 revenue declined by 30.38% [7] - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 1.30 percentage points to 34.00% for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 gross profit margin at 28.23% [7] - Despite challenges, the company expects a recovery in Q4 2025, driven by the release of capacity from overseas subsidiaries and strong customer relationships [7] Group 3: Company Analysis - Zhongheng Electric - Zhongheng Electric launched two 800VDC solutions aimed at enhancing efficiency in new and existing data centers, potentially increasing system efficiency to 98.5% [9][13] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.42 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, although net profit decreased by 15.6% [13] - Future growth is anticipated as the company expands its high-voltage direct current (HVDC) solutions in both domestic and international markets [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short and medium term, the actual supply and demand of lithium carbonate are favorable, and inventory depletion is accelerating. However, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has started to limit positions on lithium carbonate, which may cool down the recent exuberant sentiment. For polysilicon, the rumors of state reserve purchases have been refuted, but there are still expectations for supply - side contraction policies, and the price has support at the bottom. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing [1]. - The sentiment of industrial silicon has declined, and the supply and demand are still weak, with the price fluctuating. The policy expectation of polysilicon is volatile, and the price is in a wide - range shock. The trading sentiment of lithium carbonate has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the high - level fluctuations of lithium prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of November 2025, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.1% month - on - month to 452,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.8% week - on - week. In October 2025, the monthly output increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 452,000 tons, but decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. The export volume in October decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year. The organic silicon industry may enter a production - reduction and price - support stage [6]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - involution in the organic silicon industry has strengthened the market's expectation of anti - involution in surplus varieties, but the production reduction in the organic silicon industry is negative for the demand of industrial silicon. From the fundamental perspective, the supply in the southwest decreased due to the dry season, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon may decline. The inventory is still at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are being depleted [6]. - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the organic silicon start - up rate, and the over - supply pressure of industrial silicon still exists [6]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was stable, and the number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 20. The export and import volumes from January to September 2025 decreased year - on - year. The photovoltaic installation growth rate decreased from June to September [6][9]. - **Main Logic**: In terms of supply, the production of polysilicon will decrease in the dry season, and there are still expectations for anti - involution policies. In terms of demand, the photovoltaic installation growth rate decreased in the second half of the year, and the demand for polysilicon may weaken in November. Overall, the supply - demand situation still has pressure, and the price is expected to remain in a wide - range shock [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant boost to the polysilicon price, but the inventory pressure is still large. The price of polysilicon is expected to show a wide - range shock [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On November 20, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 0.32%, and the total position decreased by 15,651 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,400 yuan/ton. In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 22% month - on - month and 3% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply and demand are both strong, and inventory depletion is expected to continue from November to December. The supply is expected to remain strong, but there is a shortage of ore. The demand is good, and speculative demand may push up the price. The social inventory is depleting, and the warehouse receipts have stabilized. In the short term, the resumption of production of Jiaxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. In the long term, a bullish view is recommended [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 2. Market Monitoring Industrial Silicon No specific monitoring content provided. Polysilicon No specific monitoring content provided. Lithium Carbonate No specific monitoring content provided. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 20, 2025: the commodity index was 2,234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2,535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial products index was 2,200.99, down 0.68%. The new energy commodity index was 452.94, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day increase of 5.19%, a 1 - month increase of 10.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.83% [54][56].