"我国人民币贷款余额超过270万亿元，比起单纯垒高增量来说，向存量要效益、优化资金供给结构更为 重要。"粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒认为，明年货币政策可从四个方面发力：一是择机 实施降准降息，强化逆周期调节，平滑经济波动；二是用好结构性工具，引导资金流向科创、消费等重 点领域；三是深化货币政策框架改革，疏通传导机制；四是盘活存量金融资源，提升资金使用效率。 在财政政策方面，罗志恒建议："优化财政支出结构，进一步向居民端和民生保障倾斜，提高育儿补贴 金额、给青年失业群体发放一定时期（例如半年）低保水平的救助，修复居民部门资产负债表优化化债 方式，进一步提高债务限额，缓解地方债务压力等。" 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。 王青认为，这显示宏观政策保持很强的连续性、稳定性，将有效稳定社会预期，提振市场信心。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜对《中国经营报》记者表示："更加积极的财政政策+适度宽松的货 币政策"这一组合保持不变，宏观总基调仍是"宽财政+宽货 ...

会议强调，做好明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩 大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设， 持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量 的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强 高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联 动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 会议认为，今年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而 上、奋力拼搏，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将 ...

综合今天最新落地的政治局会议和座谈会内容来看，基本预示了即将落地的经济工作会议的主基调： （来源：研讯社） 今日午间，12月政治局会议落地：中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 12月政治局会议是中央经济工作会议的前瞻，因此今天会议内容比较简洁，主要内容都要等经济工作会 议落地。今天主要定了个主基调，提到明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 同时，今天盘后据报道，中共中央在中南海召开党外人士座谈会，就今年经济形势和明年经济工作听取 各民主党派中央、全国工商联负责人和无党派人士代表的意见建议。 座谈会也是中央经济工作会议召开之前的惯例，目的就是广泛听取意见建议。因此今天政治局会议和座 谈会双双落地之后，就意味着中央经济工作会议很快就要召开了，本周落地是大概率事件。 座谈会上，重要讲话再次强调坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好 统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化 供 ...

据新华社周一发布消息，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。针对宏观政策 基调，会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松 的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治 理效能。 宏观要闻 政治局会议定调明年经济工作 海关总署周一公布数据显示，以美元计，11月中国出口金额同比增长5.9%，上月下降1.1%；进口同比 增长1.9%，涨幅较上月回升0.9个百分点，当月实现贸易顺差1116.8亿美元。 前11个月办理离境退税的境外旅客数量同比增长285% 11月出口增速回升至5.9% ...

宏 观 研 究 中央政治局会议学习理解 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2025 年 12 月 08 日 实现"十五五"良好开局 —— 12 月中央政治局会议学习理解 事件：12 月 8 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共产党 领导全面依法治国工作条例》。 政治局会议在基调上有何亮点？统筹经济工作和经贸斗争、重视政策效果和经济增长 会议重提 2025 年 4 月政治局会议首提的"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，凸显对 外部环境不确定性的关注与内部发展稳定性的重视。这一表述在 2024 年 12 月会议"更好 ...

Domestic News - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the need for a stable yet progressive approach, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement in economic policies [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of domestic demand, innovation-driven growth, reform, and high-quality development, as well as promoting green transformation and ensuring people's livelihoods [1] - In the first 11 months, China's goods trade import and export value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% [2] Automotive Industry - The retail sales revenue of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 19.1% year-on-year in the first 11 months, reflecting a strong market activity [3] - In November, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.321 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0% [3] - The retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles, however, saw a decline of 22% year-on-year in November [3] International Trade - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that economic and trade cooperation should continue to be the "ballast" and "driving force" in China-U.S. relations, emphasizing mutual benefit and respect [2] - China's rare earth exports in November totaled 5,493.9 tons, with a cumulative export of 58,193.1 tons in the first 11 months, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international economic struggles, highlighting the importance of policy effectiveness and economic growth [3][12]. Economic Policy Focus - The meeting reiterates the importance of "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," reflecting concerns about external uncertainties and internal stability [3][12]. - The phrase "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" replaces "stabilizing through progress," indicating a focus on the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of policies [3][12]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain an expansionary orientation with an anticipated deficit rate around 4%, with slight expansions in special bonds compared to 2025 [3][12]. Economic Growth Targets - The meeting sets a goal for economic growth, aiming for nominal and real GDP growth rates of approximately 4% and 4.4%, respectively, to achieve a doubling of economic output and per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 [4][13]. Policy Changes - New emphasis on "proactive targeting and coordination" in policy deployment, indicating a shift towards more integrated fiscal and monetary policies [4][14]. - The focus on domestic demand is reinforced, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to accelerate [5][14]. Reform and Market Development - The meeting stresses the importance of reform, particularly in advancing the construction of a unified national market, which includes standardizing market regulations and eliminating local protectionism [5][15]. - The focus on "people's livelihood" remains a priority, with policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [6][15]. Consumer and Investment Focus - The meeting highlights the need to increase the household consumption rate, with a specific target to address the gap in per capita service consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels [5][14]. - Investment policies are expected to support new infrastructure projects, particularly in digital infrastructure, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" goals [5][14].

（资料图） 21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工 作。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续 扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强 高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联 动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 2025年更加积极有为的宏观政策力度不小，2026年中央政治局会议明确要继续实施更加 ...

会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强 高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联 动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the successful financing breakthrough of Youqiang Polymer, a high-tech company specializing in modified materials for new energy vehicles, through a supportive monetary policy from the People's Bank of China [2][3] - Youqiang Polymer faced significant challenges in financing due to exhausted collateral and traditional loan difficulties, which is a common issue for many tech companies [2] - The company received a credit loan of 2.5 million yuan at a preferential interest rate of 2.8%, which is 20 basis points lower than the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), with an approval time reduced from 20 days to 5 days [2] Group 2 - The monetary policy implemented in 2025 aimed to provide targeted support to the real economy, with measures including interest rate cuts and increased loan quotas for technology innovation and consumption [3][4] - By October 2025, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.2% year-on-year, and the total social financing stock increased by 8.5%, indicating a stable growth in financial liquidity [4] - The financing costs for enterprises have decreased, with the average interest rate for newly issued loans at 3.1%, which is about 40 basis points lower than the previous year [7] Group 3 - Structural monetary policy tools have been increasingly utilized to direct funds towards key sectors such as technology innovation and consumption, with significant loan quotas established for these areas [6] - Financial institutions have innovated products tailored to specific needs, such as a loan product that uses water rights as collateral for financing, demonstrating the adaptability of financial services to local conditions [6] - The overall financing environment has improved, allowing companies to invest more in production and research, thereby enhancing their growth potential [7][9]