Supply and Demand - As of August 15, PTA production capacity is at 76%, with a 1.3% increase due to the restart of several plants, including 1.5 million tons from Taiwan and 2.25 million tons from Yisheng [3] - Polyester factory load has slightly increased, with the overall polyester load rising to approximately 89.4%, a 0.6% increase [3] - There is a local improvement in the operating rate and shipment volume in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, although the overall market remains weak [3] Price and Profitability - On August 18, PTA spot processing fees are around 185 yuan/ton, with futures processing fees at 239 yuan/ton for TA2509 and 342 yuan/ton for TA2601 [2] - The spot market shows a trading range for PTA prices between 4650 and 4690 yuan, with some transactions occurring at lower prices [1] Market Outlook - The PTA supply-demand situation is expected to improve in the short term due to increased maintenance plans amid low processing margins, providing some support for the basis [4] - However, with the new PTA facility from Hailun Petrochemical coming online, the medium-term supply-demand outlook appears weak, limiting the upward potential of PTA basis [4] - The traditional demand peak in September and October may provide some support for PTA, with short-term price fluctuations expected between 4600 and 4800 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Urea - The short - term rebound of the urea futures is mainly driven by the export expectation on the demand side, with the co - existence of the lag in export policy implementation and the time constraint of Indian tenders. The secondary driver is the weak support from the increase in compound fertilizer production to industrial demand. However, the overall high supply situation remains unchanged. In the future, it is necessary to track the winning bids of Indian tenders and August export volume. If the export fails to meet expectations, the domestic supply pressure will drag down the futures price. It is recommended to maintain a band - trading strategy [33]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated. The main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risks and supply - side uncertainties. Geopolitical factors support oil prices in the short term, while the supply increase from OPEC+ suppresses the upside potential. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path affects market risk appetite. Geopolitical factors are the core variables for short - term price fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, expand the spreads between October - November/December contracts, and capture opportunities in volatility contraction in the options market [35]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. In August, PTA plants had many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing margins, so the PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally. However, with the approaching traditional peak season and new PTA plant commissioning expectations, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. The price is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited. For other products in the polyester industry chain, their prices and processing margins are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [40]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the demand has improved recently, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas is expected to rise in August, which will limit the rebound. For PVC, the supply pressure is large due to the release of new capacity, while the downstream demand remains weak, so it is recommended to take a bearish view [45]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decline in August, providing some support for the price. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the price increase is limited. For styrene, the supply is high in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve as some plants plan to shut down for maintenance and export expectations increase. The price is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound is restricted by high inventory and limited oil - price support [48]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE and PP, on the supply side, PP maintenance is decreasing, PE maintenance is increasing in mid - to - late August, imports are low, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation in August - September. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates are low, but there is potential for restocking as the peak season approaches. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to close short positions around 7000 for the previous short - selling strategy on LLDPE and continue to hold the LP01 spread [53]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant supply pressure, with high production and imports in August - September, and the port inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The traditional demand is weak, and the low profit of downstream industries restricts the operating rate. The MTO profit has recovered, and attention should be paid to the start - up of a certain MTO plant at the port from late August to early September. The 09 contract is expected to see strong inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by the seasonal peak season and Iranian gas - rationing expectations [56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 18, the 01 contract closed at 1754 yuan/ton (+0.98% compared to August 15), the 05 contract at 1790 yuan/ton (+0.39%), the 09 contract at 1731 yuan/ton (+0.58%), and the main contract at 2396 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [28]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton on August 18 (+21.74% compared to August 15), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 59 yuan/ton (-4.84%), the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was - 23 yuan/ton (-43.75%), and the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was 665 yuan/ton (+3.76%) [29]. - **Positions**: On August 18, the long - position of the top 20 was 101,968 (-0.89% compared to August 15), the short - position of the top 20 was 123,878 (+3.00%), the long - to - short ratio was 0.82 (-3.77%), the unilateral trading volume was 167,760 (+53.80%), and the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts was 3,573 (unchanged) [30]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng and power coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged. The price of power coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.29%, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong decreased by 2.75%. The estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry processes remained unchanged [31]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong increased by 1.76%, 1.16%, and 0.53% respectively, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged. The FOB prices in China and the US Gulf also remained unchanged [32]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi changed by - 50%, - 7%, and 4% respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong changed by 35.14%, 17.65%, and - 5.26% respectively, while the basis in Shanxi decreased by 13.39% [33]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine in Shandong and 45% S/CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged, and the compound - fertilizer to urea ratio decreased by 1.15% [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production decreased by 0.78%, the coal - based urea production decreased by 0.99%, and the small - sized urea production decreased by 0.95%. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 1.51%, the weekly maintenance loss decreased by 4.48%, the factory inventory increased by 7.86%, and the port inventory decreased by 3.93%. The number of production - enterprise order days decreased by 3.68% [33]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 19, Brent crude was at $66.60/barrel (+1.14% compared to August 18), WTI at $63.35/barrel (-0.11%), and SC at 485.20 yuan/barrel (-0.76%). The spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed to varying degrees [35]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was at 209.95 cents/gallon (+0.04%), NYM ULSD at 224.62 cents/gallon (+0.26%), and ICE Gasoil at $645.50/ton (-1.68%). The spreads of RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 also changed [35]. - **Refined - Product Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 19 compared to August 18 [35]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and other products changed slightly on August 18 compared to August 15. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY also changed [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The CFR China PX price was $828/ton on August 18 (+0.6% compared to August 15), and the PX - related spreads also changed [40]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA East - China spot price was 4670 yuan/ton on August 18 (+0.2% compared to August 15), and the PTA - related spreads also changed [40]. - **MEG Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: The MEG port inventory was 547,000 tons on August 18 (-1.1% compared to August 11), and the expected arrival volume was 54,000 tons (-8.7% compared to the previous period) [40]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products, changed to varying degrees from August 8 to August 15 [40]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: On August 18, the prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda increased by 2.4% and 0.8% respectively. The prices of East - China calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC decreased by 1.0% and remained unchanged respectively. The SH2509 contract increased by 1.1%, and the SH2601 contract decreased by 0.1%. The SH basis increased by 146.8% [45]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB East - China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 42.3% [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast - Asia and CFR India prices of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 48.9% [45]. - **Supply - Side Indicators**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 2.0%, the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.4%. The profit of externally - sourced calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 3.7%, and the Northwest integrated profit decreased by 5.1% [45]. - **Demand - Side Indicators**: The operating rates of caustic - soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing increased. The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes and profiles also changed [45]. - **Inventory Indicators**: The East - China caustic - soda factory inventory increased by 6.6%, the Shandong caustic - soda inventory increased by 1.6%, the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.1%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.5% [45]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the Brent crude (October) was $66.60/barrel (+1.1% compared to August 15), the WTI crude (September) was $63.42/barrel (+1.0%), and the CFR Japan naphtha price was $571/ton (-0.3%). The pure - benzene - related prices and spreads also changed [48]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The East - China styrene spot price was 7290 yuan/ton on August 18 (-0.1% compared to August 15), and the styrene - related spreads also changed [48]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, and ABS changed on August 18 compared to August 15 [48]. - **Inventory**: The Jiangsu port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 1.4%, and the Jiangsu port inventory of styrene increased by 8.5% [48]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industry chain, such as Asian pure - benzene, domestic hydro - benzene, and downstream products, changed from August 8 to August 15 [48]. Polyolefins - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the L2601 contract closed at 7334 yuan/ton (-0.23% compared to August 15), the L2509 contract at 7292 yuan/ton (-0.19%), the PP2601 contract at 7048 yuan/ton (-0.51%), and the PP2509 contract at 7026 yuan/ton (-0.45%). The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed [53]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The East - China PP raffia spot price was 6960 yuan/ton on August 18 (-0.29% compared to August 15), and the North - China LDPE film - grade spot price was 7210 yuan/ton (-0.14%). The basis of North - China plastics remained unchanged, and the East - China PP basis increased by 14.29% [53]. - **PE and PP Non - Standard Prices**: The prices of East - China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, PP injection, PP fiber, and PP low - melt co - polymer changed on August 18 compared to August 15 [53]. - **PE and PP Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.47%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%, the PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1%, and the PP downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.3% [53]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 13.76%, the PE social inventory decreased by 1.23%, the PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.07%, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 4.06% [53]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the MA2601 contract closed at 2396 yuan/ton (-0.66% compared to August 15), the MA2509 contract at 2293 yuan/ton (-0.99%), and the MA91 spread was - 103 yuan/ton (-7.29%). The basis and regional spreads also changed [56]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573% on August 18 (+0.64% compared to the previous period), and the methanol port inventory was 102.2 million tons (+10.41%) [56]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 72.63% on August 18 (-0.74% compared to the previous period), the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 76.92% (+0.68%), and the operating rates of other downstream industries also changed [56].

【供需方面】 供应：截止8月15日，部分工厂产量恢复有所推迟，短纤负荷提升不及预期，至91.1（+0.5%）。 【现货方面】 8月18日，直纺涤短期货尾盘上涨，现货方面较为平稳，半光1.4D主流商谈重心在6350~6650区间，下 游按需采购为主，工厂及贸易商成交普遍一般。截止下午3:00附近，平均产销43%。 【利润方面】 8月18日，短纤现货加工费至1003元/吨附近，PF2510盘面加工费至963元/吨，PF2511盘面加工费至921 元/吨。 需求：下游纯涤纱及涤棉纱维持商谈走货，销售一般。 【行情展望】 短纤周度供应和需求均继续小幅提升。供应上，短纤工厂前期检修装置逐步重启，进度略不及预期。需 求看，金九银十传统需求旺季临近，终端局部范围秋冬季询单有改善，下游涤纱小幅去库，对价格存一 定支撑。但成本端支撑有限，预计短纤绝对价格存支撑，但反弹仍乏力。策略上，PF10短期或在6300- 6500区间震荡，下沿附近低位试多；盘面加工费在800-1100区间震荡，上下驱动均有限。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline, with significant pressure from the upper moving - average lines. The tight supply of imported goods has been somewhat alleviated. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory continues to decline. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year. The medium - and long - term overcapacity pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel - ore price is stable, freight rates are firm, and the nickel - iron price has increased steadily. The cost line has risen slightly, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2510 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On August 18, the price of 沪镍主力 was 120,340 yuan, down 260 yuan from August 15; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,170 yuan, down 25 yuan. The prices of various types of spot nickel all increased slightly [12]. - **不锈钢**: On August 18, the price of 不锈钢主力 remained unchanged at 13,010 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained flat [12]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of August 18, LME nickel inventory was 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons from August 15; 沪镍 (warehouse receipts) was 23,051 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The total inventory was 233,465 tons, a decrease of 338 tons [15]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 15, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared to the previous period. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,093 tons, a decrease of 184 tons from August 15 [19][20]. 3.3 Cost - **镍 - ore and nickel - iron**: The prices of red - clay nickel ore and nickel - iron remained stable on August 18 compared to August 15, with only a slight increase in the price of high - nickel wet tons [23]. - **Stainless - steel production**: The traditional cost was 12,901 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,586 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,519 yuan [25]. - **Nickel import**: The imported price was converted to 122,349 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, firm nickel - ore prices, and a slight upward trend in the cost line [7]. - **Negative factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term overcapacity pattern, and a year - on - year decrease in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly compared to before. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the steel mill output will increase in August [2]. - As the traditional consumption off - season for downstream industries is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously backlogged orders have been released. At the same time, holders of goods have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has corrected, the bullish sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support of MA20. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 13,010 yuan/ton, with a 0 change. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts for stainless steel is - 75 yuan/ton, with a 0 change [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for stainless steel is - 14,994 lots, a decrease of 1,580 lots. The position of the main contract for stainless steel is 134,400 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity for stainless steel is 103,093 tons, a decrease of 184 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 285 yuan/ton, with a 0 change [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down to 3.7%, and the year - on - year total retail sales of automobiles turned negative. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in July was 5.7%, with automobiles and electronics leading the way, while the output of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, and private investment declined. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, for the 70 large and medium - sized cities in China, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in prices in all tiers of cities narrowed [2]. - In the US, retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month in July, which was the second consecutive month of significant growth in retail sales, with a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The June data was revised up significantly to 0.9% [2]. Key Points to Watch No news on this day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is facing significant production losses due to new capacity coming online, while profits are concentrated in the upstream PX segment, with no planned maintenance for PTA facilities in the short term [1][6]. Group 1: PTA Industry Analysis - As of August 14, the average processing fee for PTA in August is 195 yuan/ton, down 19% from July, marking a 22-month low [1]. - The theoretical production loss for PTA companies is estimated at 305 yuan/ton, based on a processing cost line of 500 yuan/ton [1]. - The main reason for PTA's production losses is the new capacity coming online and the continued supply-demand mismatch in PX, which remains relatively strong [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polyester industry chain's profits are currently concentrated in the upstream PX and downstream polyester filament POY segments [3]. - The theoretical profit for PX is 381 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from July, while polyester filament POY has turned profitable with a theoretical profit of 29 yuan/ton [3]. - Despite the severe losses faced by PTA, the supply pressure is expected to increase with the upcoming new PTA capacities, which may not be offset by any planned maintenance [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PX supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue, with new PTA capacities potentially increasing PX demand by 34.7 thousand tons/month if they stabilize by October [4]. - Polyester inventory levels are relatively low, with POY at 17 days, FDY at 25 days, short fibers at 12 days, and polyester chips at 7.5 days as of August 14 [4]. - The anticipated demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period may support profit recovery for polyester products, while PTA continues to face supply pressure from new capacities [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel (2509), it is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply - demand situation shows an oversupply pattern, but short - term factors such as cost increases and potential consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October" need to be considered [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2510), it is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The short - term cost is rising slightly, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Nickel Futures**: On August 15, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 15,195 yuan, up 145 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 1,850 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: On August 15, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan [12]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 15, the LME nickel inventory was 211,662 tons, an increase of 522 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel warehouse receipts were 22,141 tons, an increase of 1,421 tons. The total inventory was 233,803 tons, an increase of 1,943 tons [15]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 15, the inventory in Wuxi was 61.01 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 314,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons [19]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 103,277 tons, a decrease of 244 tons [20]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 15, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 925.5 yuan per nickel point, up 1 yuan [23]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,901 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,587 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,384 yuan [25]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 122,636 yuan per ton [29]. 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Positive Factors**: The expected consumption growth during the "Golden September and Silver October", the anti - involution policy, the firm price of nickel ore, and the slight rebound of downstream ferronickel prices, which led to a slight upward shift in the cost line [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, the lack of new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern, and the year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season in China and the increase in downstream operating rates, short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the weak cost side, continuous accumulation of social inventory, and the new tariff measures by Trump. It is advisable to wait and see [5][12]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum presents a dual - track pattern of "stable growth in China + overseas supplement". The monthly output in China is expected to increase year - on - year, and the output in overseas countries such as Brazil and South Africa is also expected to have a year - on - year increase of over 30% [10]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week, showing a mild recovery trend. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: large - range oscillation. The logic is that China is about to enter the traditional consumption season with rising downstream operating rates, but the weak cost side, continuous inventory accumulation, and new tariff measures may intensify short - term fluctuations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Aluminum in August may be weak first and then strong. For the next week, the range of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract is seen at 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is advisable for now [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: Due to Trump's new tariff measures, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - Bauxite market: The domestic bauxite fundamentals are not in surplus. The ore price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, and the price in the southwestern region has an upward trend. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the supply in August is tightening, but due to the high port inventory and the resumption of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage degree may be limited, and the ore price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - Alumina market: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11255 million tons, the operating capacity was about 9570 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.64%, slightly lower than last week's 85.73%. The capacity utilization rate has been rising since May and is currently at a high level since 2022 [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: The supply shows a dual - track pattern. In China, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the output in countries like Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by over 30% year - on - year [10]. - Import and export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. The export volume of aluminum products has declined since June but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Trump's new 50% tariff on aluminum products may lead to a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the year [10]. - Demand: - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week. The construction profile sector remains sluggish, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. - Aluminum strips and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 65.0%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%. The operating rate of aluminum strips is expected to continue to recover in mid - and late August, and the operating rate of aluminum foil is expected to rise after September [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%. The operating rate will gradually rise in mid - and late August, and the industry is expected to get out of the off - season [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 56.6%, and is expected to continue to rise to about 57% in the third week of August, but the upward space is limited. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 53.0%, and short - term pressure is expected to continue [11]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic aluminum ingots: The social inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 28% from the same period last year. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in China due to the tariff increase by the US [11]. - Aluminum rods: The inventory is 135,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from last week and an increase of about 15% from the same period last year. The demand may still weaken [11]. - LME electrolytic aluminum inventory: It has been increasing slightly since July. Due to overseas resumption of production and weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - Profit: - Alumina: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The average production cost in China is about 17600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3000 yuan/ton, also the same as last week, at a relatively high level [12]. - Market expectation: It will maintain a high - level repeated pattern, focusing on weak supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and capital withdrawal pressure. Short - term is inclined to short on rallies, and long - term requires patience for the peak season [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices are generally stable, with no significant changes in the fundamental pattern. The price of thermal coal has been rising since July. The price of alumina has slightly declined, with high production, oversupply, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are in a narrow - range consolidation, waiting for further macro - level guidance. The alloy price has increased slightly, but the price of scrap aluminum is suppressed due to some enterprises' reduction or suspension of production [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory has a slight decline. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The aluminum rod inventory has decreased, and the demand may weaken. Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase, possibly due to weak overseas demand and the new position limit rule [18]. Supply and Demand Situation - Profit: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 400 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [20]. - Operating rate: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is relatively neutral, with low expectations for price increases in the second half of this year and a cooling of expectations for the first half of 2026 [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1640 yuan/ton, compared with - 1560 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has slightly rebounded, mainly boosted by the expected Fed rate cut in September. However, due to the continuous decline in manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the market is more divided, and the market may fluctuate widely in the near future [37]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has continued to increase steadily. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has been declining since August, while some institutional positions have increased net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July and is now slightly net long. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [40].

Group 1 - The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market has weakened, with traders adopting aggressive pricing strategies to promote sales while downstream buyers are inclined to press for lower prices, leading to a weak performance of methanol futures contracts [1] - Domestic methanol supply is expected to steadily increase as maintenance peaks have passed, with production profits from coal-based methanol remaining high at around 350 RMB/ton, despite rising production capacity utilization rates indicating potential bottlenecks [2] - The economic viability of natural gas-based methanol projects has weakened significantly due to high industrial gas prices, with several projects currently suspended and uncertain restart timelines [2] Group 2 - Iranian methanol supply remains high, with several production facilities operating normally, while non-Iranian supplies are also expected to remain elevated due to limited international demand [3] - The traditional downstream processing sector is facing challenges, with many products, including formaldehyde and MTBE, operating below breakeven profit levels, leading to reduced purchasing activity from downstream enterprises [4] - Recent price rebounds in methanol have led to a decline in production profits for MTO facilities, with several undergoing maintenance or operating below capacity, indicating a potential decrease in overall industry activity [5] Group 3 - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" demand season is under scrutiny, with expectations of limited demand growth due to high raw material inventories and ongoing losses in downstream sectors [4][5] - The market outlook for methanol futures contracts is expected to remain weak, with potential opportunities for low-risk positions in future contracts once current bearish pressures are alleviated [6]

Group 1 - The National Building Materials and Home Furnishing Prosperity Index (BHI) for July 2025 is reported at 112.02, showing a month-on-month decline of 4.12 points and a year-on-year decline of 8.90 points, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending during the traditional off-season [1] - Despite the overall decline in BHI, the "Manager Confidence Index" increased to 147.89, up 11.36 points month-on-month, reflecting positive short-term market expectations due to upcoming peak seasons and supportive government policies [1] - Recent implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidies is expected to lower interest costs, improving market expectations for home furnishing demand stabilization [1] Group 2 - Companies to watch as the peak season approaches include Sangokushi and Beixin Building Materials, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [2]