Core Insights - The preliminary data from the University of Michigan indicates that the U.S. consumer confidence index rose to its highest level in five months, reaching 61.8 in July, up from 60.7 in June, although it remains below most levels from the previous year [1] - Inflation expectations have decreased, with respondents anticipating a 4.4% increase in prices over the next year, down from 5% the previous month, marking the lowest level since February [1] - Concerns about the economic outlook persist, particularly regarding uncertainties related to tariffs, which continue to limit overall optimism [1] Consumer Sentiment - The current conditions index increased from 64.8 to 66.8, while the expectations index slightly rose to 58.6, driven mainly by improved sentiment among Republican supporters and independent voters [2] - The recent rise in consumer confidence may reflect a perception that the worst-case scenarios feared in April and May have eased [1][2] - Consumers' views on their financial situation have improved, potentially influenced by a rising stock market [1]

金十数据7月18日讯，密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，美国消费者信心与6月相比变化不 大，小幅上升约1个点至61.8。尽管该指数创下五个月新高，但仍比2024年12月低约16%，且远低于历 史平均水平。除非消费者确信通胀不太可能恶化，例如贸易政策在可预见的未来趋于稳定，否则他们不 太可能重新恢复对经济的信心。目前的访谈结果几乎没有显示其他政策变化（包括最近通过的税收和支 出法案）对消费者信心产生明显影响。对未来一年的通胀预期连续第二个月下降，从上月的5.0%跌至 本月的4.4%。长期通胀预期连续第三个月回落，从6月份的4.0%回落至7月份的3.6%。这两个指数都是 自2025年2月以来的最低水平，但仍高于2024年12月，这表明消费者仍然认为未来通胀将上升的风险很 大。 美国7月消费者信心变化不大 通胀预期连续回落 ...

美国7月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值 3.6，预期 3.9，前值 4。 ...

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 07 月 18 日 经济好转联储反击，美元升值态势延续 ——宏观周报（第 13 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 美国零售大幅反弹，就业连续改善。汽车销售升温，美国 6 月零售大 幅反弹，现有关税影响程度较小。减税法案落地支撑居民收入，美国商品 消费可能加速升温。美国 6 月零售同比大幅反弹 0.6 个百分点至 3.9%，主 要拉动来自汽车。3 月以来美国汽车零售整体位于 2024 年以来较高区间， 显示当前关税对美国耐用消费品需求冲击幅度有限。近期美国新一轮减税 法案落地，中高收入群体收入获得支撑，美国居民消费特别是可选耐用商 品消费需求可能加速升温。美国初请失业金人数连续第 5 周大幅下行，显 示近期就业持续向好，关税对供给侧影响不大。就业和薪资改善的前景可 能意味着美联储降息必要性持续下降。截至 7 月 12 日美国当周初请失业金 人数（季调）仅 22.1 万人，较前周再度下行 0.7 万人，连续第 5 周大幅下 降并创近 13 周新低。预计下半年美国劳动力市场可能再度趋于紧张，就业 和薪资趋于改善，届时美元指数可能迎来大幅反弹。 日本通胀强弩之末，存在重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Board members are focused on their responsibilities rather than the President's comments, maintaining stable market inflation expectations despite presidential remarks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve's Focus - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasized that the board members are concentrating on their duties and not on the President's statements [1] Inflation Expectations - The market's inflation expectations remain stable, with no signs of rising long-term inflation expectations observed [1] Economic Stability - The primary goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent an economic hard landing [1]

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Waller is the need for the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut in July due to concerns over weak private sector employment, which he believes is not as healthy as commonly perceived [1][3] - Waller's comments were influenced by the June non-farm payroll report, which indicated a slowdown in private sector job growth and a deceleration in wage growth, despite a slight decrease in the overall unemployment rate [3] - Following Waller's statements, the dollar index fell by 0.39%, and U.S. Treasury yields also declined slightly, indicating a more aggressive stance on rate cuts than the market consensus, which anticipates a cut in September [1] Group 2 - Waller has expressed interest in succeeding Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, stating he would accept the position if offered, although he noted that there has been no communication from President Trump regarding this matter [4] - He emphasized the importance of the next chair gaining the trust of financial markets, warning that a lack of credibility could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher interest rates, contrary to the desired outcome of lower rates [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed willingness to accept the position of Federal Reserve Chair if offered by the President, emphasizing the importance of market trust in the role [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chair must possess market credibility to effectively manage inflation expectations [1] - A lack of credibility could lead to a surge in inflation expectations, which poses risks to economic stability [1]

美联储理事沃勒：尽管总统对美联储的评论，但市场对通胀预期仍然保持锚定。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：如果缺乏信誉，通胀预期将会飙升。 ...

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price is 9273 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1.36% and a trading volume of 854,199 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price is quoted at 9169 yuan/kg, showing a discount of 104 yuan/kg compared to the futures price [1] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a rare internal policy dispute, with differing views on interest rate adjustments amid rising consumer prices due to tariffs [1] Group 2 - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6%, significantly surpassing May's -0.9% and market expectations of 0.1%, indicating economic resilience [2] - Weekly initial jobless claims were lower than previous values and expectations, further supporting the notion of economic strength [2] - Uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to create volatility in risk sentiment, leading to fluctuations in precious metal prices [2]