Fiscal Policy Insights - In October, general public budget revenue growth was 3.2% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue grew by 8.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to last month, while non-tax revenue plummeted by 33%, a significant drop of 21.5 percentage points[4] - General public budget expenditure fell by 3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest in nearly a year[6] - Government fund revenue decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, a sharp decline of 23.7 percentage points from the previous month, with land transfer revenue down by 27.5%[6] Market Trends - The equity market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern until the Central Economic Work Conference in December, with limited risk of a significant downturn due to favorable risk appetite and a loose liquidity environment[2] - Recent dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials have alleviated concerns about a rate hike in December, leading to a slight recovery in market risk appetite[2] - The bond market is anticipated to enter a phase of fluctuation in the short term, influenced by changes in market risk preferences and inflation expectations[12] Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, a significant increase from the previous month's initial value of 97,000[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening labor market[16] - Wage growth showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with year-on-year growth remaining stable at 3.8%[16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve have led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a rebound in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant gains in related ETFs and stocks [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) increased by 1.60% as of 13:30, with notable stock performances including Huaxi Nonferrous rising by 8.49% and Western Gold increasing by 4.60% [1]. - Over the past seven trading days, the non-ferrous metals ETF has seen net inflows for six days, totaling 343 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 1.241 billion, marking a new high since its inception [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The non-ferrous metals ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of October 31, 2025, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum, collectively accounting for 53.58% of the index [1]. - The top ten stocks by weight are as follows: - Zijin Mining: 16.32% - Northern Rare Earth: 6.60% - Luoyang Molybdenum: 5.96% - Huayou Cobalt: 5.22% - Shandong Gold: 3.85% - Ganfeng Lithium: 3.72% - China Aluminum: 3.53% - Zhongjin Gold: 3.44% - Chifeng Gold: 2.67% - Tianqi Lithium: 2.66% [2].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251125 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国降息预期再度走强，中美元首超预期通话 海外方面，市场降息预期再度走强，美联储理事沃勒称劳动力市场持续走弱，使其倾向 支持 12 月降息，但大量延迟数据将在会后集中公布，或令 1 月决策更复杂。12 月降息概率 升至 80%。在预期提振下，主要资产延续修复：美股反弹逾 2%，金价重回 4100 美元，油价 涨超 1%，铜价走高，美元指数在 100.2 附近震荡，美债利率回落。今日关注美国 9 月零售 及 PPI 数据。 国内方面，A 股宽幅震荡收涨，两市超 4000 只个股收涨、成交额缩量至 1.74 万亿，科 创、中证 2000 等成长小票领涨，在基本面数据边际走弱、地缘扰动风偏的背景下，短期预 计震荡偏弱，保持观望。资金面偏松，债市走势分化，主要期限国债利率小幅上行，短期依 旧缺乏清晰的主线。中美元首通话超预期，话题涉及台湾、乌克兰、芬太尼和美国农产品。 本周关注 10 月工业企业利润及 11 月 PMI 数据。 贵金属：美联储官员鸽派言论 ...

【导读】现货黄金涨势不止，站上4150美元/盎司；美联储沃勒呼吁降息，12月降息25个基点概率升至八成 昨夜今晨，现货黄金涨势不止，从4060美元/盎司拉升至4150美元/盎司。截至记者发稿，现货黄金报4153.09美元/盎司。 | W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 4153.090 " | | | 4134.230 | 总量 | | 0 | | +18.860 | +0.46% 十益 | | 4134.230 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4145.617 持 仓 | | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4122.265 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 目K | 周Ｋ | 目K | 車を | (0) | | 叠加 | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 4153.160 | | | | 0.46% 卖一 4141.440 | | | | | | | | | 买一 4140 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期升温 | | 铜 | 2601 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜黄金震荡上行，纽约金站上 4100 美元关口，沪金逼近 940 元关口。继上周 ...

Overall Investment Ratings No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to show a pattern of "oscillating to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value." Domestic pro - growth policies are entering the implementation phase at the end of the year, and seasonal foreign exchange settlement demand is rising, increasing the intrinsic appreciation power of the RMB. However, short - term one - sided rapid appreciation is unlikely. The upside potential of the US dollar is weaker than in the previous cycle [2]. - For various commodities: - Precious metals: In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, focus on the Fed's December interest rate cut expectations and the 60 - day moving average. Gold resistance is at 4250, support at 4000, and strong support at 3900. Silver resistance is at 52.5, support at 49, and strong support at 47 [12]. - Copper: The copper market lacks a driving force and is expected to remain volatile. The price faces resistance at 86500 - 86600 and is accepted around 86000 [14]. - Aluminum industry chain: For electrolytic aluminum, short - term macro factors are positive, and focus on the probability of interest rate cuts. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum prices, and pay attention to the price difference between alloy and aluminum [16]. - Zinc: It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel: They had a short - term correction. Be cautious about Indonesian policy stimuli. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger than the upside, and pay attention to long - term export expectations for stainless steel [18][19]. - Tin: It is affected by news and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - Lead: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited [20]. - Steel products: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Iron ore is expected to be relatively strong. Coking coal and coke: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal is strengthening. Ferroalloys are expected to be weak with oscillations [21][22][27]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern. LPG is expected to oscillate. PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation fades, and there are support levels for operation. MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. Methanol's 01 contract has limited upside. PP's downside space is limited. PE is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak with oscillations. Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening. Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to winter storage policies. Rubber and 20 - grade rubber are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Urea is expected to continue to oscillate. For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, supply disturbances are increasing [31][35][38][41][44][45][46][49][52]. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, US employment data is divided, and Fed officials' statements increase the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but policy is firm, and the market expects more policies. The release of the US Q3 GDP forecast is postponed, and the PCE price index will be released on December 5 [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1056, up 47 points, and the mid - price was 7.0847, up 28 points. The USD/CNY spot rate may "oscillate to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value" [1][2]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was mixed. The decline in trading volume was 2378.87 billion yuan. External disturbances are both positive and negative, and the stock index is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose slightly, and the capital was loose. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and the mid - term has room for an increase. It is recommended to hold mid - term long positions [4][5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The SCFIS was 1639.37, up 20%. The futures market was slightly down. The market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to be weak with oscillations in the short - term. Traders can choose different strategies according to their types [5][6][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On Monday, precious metal prices rose due to an over - 80% expectation of a December interest rate cut. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to rise, and short - term attention should be paid to the interest rate cut expectation and technical indicators [10][12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price was mixed in different markets. The market lacks a driving force and is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to inventory changes and downstream demand [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has support at the bottom [15][16]. - **Zinc**: It fluctuated in a narrow range. The reduction in smelting TC in November may lead to production cuts, and the inventory is changing [17]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and long - term export expectations [17][18][19]. - **Tin**: It was affected by news from the Congo and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - **Lead**: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited due to raw material shortages and cost support [20]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The demand and supply of steel products increased this week, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upside. They are expected to oscillate in a range [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: It is relatively strong. The price is affected by coking coal and its own fundamentals. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before short - selling [22][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's 1 - 5 spread is strengthening. The supply of coking coal is marginally loose, and the demand is weak in the short - term, but it has support in the mid - term [24][26]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to be weak with oscillations due to high inventory and weak demand, but the supply - side reduction limits the downside space [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It rebounded due to the increasing expectation of an interest rate cut. It is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern, and pay attention to OPEC + production, winter demand, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [30][31]. - **LPG**: It is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the changes in supply, demand, and inventory [31]. - **PX - PTA**: The supply of PX is expected to be high in Q4. PTA's supply and demand have improved marginally. Pay attention to maintenance plans and actual dynamics of blending oil [32][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Consider selling call options on rebounds [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract has limited upside. The port pressure may increase in December, and the inland is relatively strong [37][38]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and the demand growth has slowed down. The downside space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [40][41]. - **PE**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weakening. It is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [43][44]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are expected to be weak with oscillations. The Asian pure benzene surplus situation may improve, but the domestic fundamentals are still weak [45]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to winter storage policies, and there may be a long - position opportunity for BU2603 [49][50]. - **Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber**: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations due to inventory, demand, and weather factors [52]. - **Urea**: It is expected to continue to oscillate. High supply is under pressure, but export policies and coal prices provide support [53]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Supply disturbances are increasing. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, glass is affected by cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda's demand is affected by downstream industries [53][54][56].

2025年11月25日 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 25 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：LME现货走强，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续承压 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

昨日11月24日（星期一），黄金早盘开盘后开始下跌，在下跌至4040附近企稳开始慢涨，欧盘以及美盘延续上涨，到收盘前最高上涨至4140附近，日线收出 一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、降息预期主导行情：美联储官员集体转鸽，"鹰王"沃勒、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯等重量级人物释放降息信号，芝商所FedWatch工具显示12月降息25个基 点的概率从上周40%飙升至81%。本周美国零售销售、PPI等重磅数据将密集发布，市场预计数据偏软或进一步坐实降息预期，黄金作为零息资产的吸引力 大幅提升。 2、地缘风险推升避险需求：基辅凌晨拉响防空警报，俄军发射多种导弹致乌克兰全境高度戒备；俄拒绝欧洲版和平方案，美乌和平谈判进展渺茫，俄乌冲 突升级风险激活黄金避险属性。 3、今日关注：21:30，美国9月零售销售月率、美国9月PPI；23:00，美国11月谘商会消费者信心指数。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：上周市场经历震荡整理后，本周一以慢涨姿态突破上周高点并收阳，短期偏强格局明确。这一走势不仅打破了前期震荡区间的束缚，还形成 了"震荡后突破"的强势形态，暗示多头动能正在逐步积聚。 2、四小时级别：黄金价格呈现连阳上涨态势，整体运行结构与前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded after the speeches of key Fed voting members, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. Further driving forces will be released in December. The Fed will hold its last interest - rate meeting of the year on December 10 (local time) and release an economic outlook report (including the dot - plot), and Trump will probably complete the selection of the new Fed chairman in late December [3]. - Currently, it is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 896 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.64% to 938.68 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.47% to 11975.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4129.60 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 51.09 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.04%, and the US dollar index was 100.20 [2]. - Multiple Fed officials' dovish statements drove the prices of gold and silver to stabilize and rebound. San Francisco Fed President Daly and potential new Fed Chairman candidate Waller both supported an interest - rate cut in the December meeting [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said there was still room for an interest - rate cut recently. After his speech, the market's probability pricing of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in the Fed's December meeting rose to 70% [3]. 3.2 Strategy Suggestions - Given the increasing expectation of Fed's interest - rate cuts, it is advisable to buy precious metals on dips. The reference ranges for Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts are 896 - 960 yuan/gram and 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram respectively [3]. 3.3 Data Summary - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) rose 1.75% to 4133.80 dollars/ounce, while trading volume decreased by 13.77% to 21.82 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.36% to 930.32 yuan/gram, and trading volume decreased by 19.60% to 47.25 million lots [5]. - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) rose 3.01% to 51.16 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume decreased by 28.51% to 210.82 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) rose 1.10% to 11,808.00 yuan/kilogram, and trading volume decreased by 28.51% to 210.82 million lots [5].