Core Viewpoint - The "gold-silver ratio" has become a crucial indicator for investment institutions, reflecting economic uncertainty and recovery signals, with the ratio recently dropping below 60, indicating potential investment opportunities in precious metals [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold-Silver Ratio Trends - The gold-silver ratio has fallen to 57.22 as of January 6, marking the lowest level in the past decade, with historical precedents showing significant fluctuations during economic crises [2][3]. - The ratio's long-term average is around 60; values above 80 suggest gold may be overvalued, while values below 50 indicate silver may be undervalued [2][9]. - The ratio is closely linked to the Juglar cycle, with a negative correlation to manufacturing investment growth, suggesting that as manufacturing investment rises, silver prices may increase faster than gold prices [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - Wealth management institutions are increasingly launching precious metal investment products, indicating a growing interest in gold and silver as investment assets [8]. - The recent surge in silver prices, driven by tight supply and market sentiment, has led to a significant narrowing of the gold-silver ratio, with expectations of further price increases in the near future [7][9]. - Investment strategies are evolving, with a focus on dynamic adjustments to gold and silver allocations in portfolios to optimize risk-return profiles, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to revert to historical averages [9][10].

2026.01. 07 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 封图 | AI生成 我国外储规模已连续5个月处于3.3万亿美元之上，截至2025年12月末，外储规模较上年末大幅增长 超1555亿美元。 1月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元， 较11月末上升115亿美元，升幅为0.34%。 中国央行同日发布的数据显示，2025年12月末，黄金储备报7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连 续第14个月增持黄金。 外汇局表示，2025年12月，受主要经济体货币政策、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全 球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国 不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，有利于外汇储备规 模保持基本稳定。 本文字数：1468，阅读时长大约2分钟 连续14个月增持黄金 黄金储备方面，2025年12月末官方黄金储备连续第14个月增加，但增量连续多月处于低位，符合市 场预期。 12月份，美联储如期降息，叠加俄乌停火前景受挫、美委冲突升级，伦敦金价格由10月末的4200美 元/盎司左 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has seen a significant increase, with spot gold rising nearly $200 in two days, surpassing the $4500 mark [2] - On January 5, spot gold closed at $4446.50 per ounce, and by January 6, it reached $4495.14 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend [2] - The gold price in 2025 experienced a remarkable rise from $2600 to $4500 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of over 70% [3] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices in 2025 can be attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical instability, inflation hedging, and the trend of "de-dollarization" [4] - The first bull market for gold began after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, with historical price increases observed during periods of economic uncertainty [4] - Analysts predict that gold prices may reach $5000 by 2026, with expectations of continued high volatility in the market [5][6] Group 3 - The ongoing restructuring of the international monetary system is leading to increased gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, India, and Russia [5][6] - Geopolitical factors, such as instability in Latin America and the Middle East, continue to support the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6] - Despite potential market bubbles, the current gold price increase is not expected to mirror the severity of past economic shocks, as the global economic landscape has evolved [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles is the continuous increase in China's foreign exchange reserves and gold holdings, indicating a stable economic outlook and a strategic shift towards optimizing international reserves through gold accumulation [1][4][9]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $335.79 billion, an increase of $11.5 billion from the previous month, marking a growth rate of 0.34% [1][6]. - The rise in foreign reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar and fluctuations in asset prices, with the dollar index falling by 1.1% to 98.3 [2][6]. - The trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, providing a solid foundation for the stability of foreign reserves [3][7]. Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves stood at 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, with an increase of 30,000 ounces, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1][8]. - The increase in gold reserves, although at a low increment, aligns with market expectations and reflects a strategic move to enhance the structure of international reserves [4][9]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the trend of "de-dollarization" are driving central banks globally to increase their gold holdings, with China's gold reserve proportion at approximately 9.5%, below the global average of around 15% [8][9].

中国基金报记者 张玲 1月7日，国家外汇管理局发布的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模连续5个月稳定在3.3万亿美元以上。同时，央行已连续14个月增持黄 金。 外储规模继续稳定在3.3万亿美元以上 数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元，较11月末上升115亿美元，升幅为0.34%。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年12月，受主要经济体货币政策、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价 格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，有利于外汇储备 规模保持基本稳定。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析称，外贸领域，我国出口量质齐升，2025年前11个月，货物贸易顺差首次突破万亿美元大关，创历史新高，出口产品结构 升级，出口市场多点开花，对国际收支的基础支撑作用更为明显。投资领域，2025年，我国资本市场表现优于全球整体，国际机构对我国经济前景和人民 币资产的信心进一步增强，境外证券资本流入规模保持在较高水平。我国经济不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，为外汇储备规模 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in the gold market is driven by speculation, with gold prices steadily approaching the historical peak of $4,600 per ounce, supported by its deep appeal as an alternative to the dollar [1][2] - The global monetary system is undergoing profound structural adjustments, which have been accelerated since 2022 due to geopolitical turmoil and the normalization of financial sanctions, challenging the credibility of the dollar [1][2] - Central banks in non-U.S. economies are accelerating the de-dollarization of reserve assets to mitigate potential asset freeze risks, reactivating gold's monetary attributes rather than viewing it solely as a commodity [1][2] Group 2 - The persistent U.S. fiscal deficit and high debt levels are actively undermining the purchasing power of the dollar, with aggressive trade policies and tariff barriers further shaking investor confidence in traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries [3] - Data indicates that the deficit spending alone could lead to an annual loss of approximately 5% in the dollar's purchasing power, while gold, driven by limited supply and strong central bank demand, is expected to maintain an annual return of 10% to 20% [3] Group 3 - For wealth protection strategies in 2026, investors are advised to follow central banks' asset allocation logic, as holding fixed-income products in an environment where inflation exceeds bond yields often results in locked-in losses [4] - Gold is increasingly replacing bonds as a true defensive anchor in investment portfolios, allowing investors to more accurately assess their wealth purchasing power and achieve asset preservation and appreciation during prolonged inflationary periods [4]

值得注意的是，尽管国际金价已经处于历史高位，但我国央行已连续14个月增持黄金，从2024年11月至 2025年12月，每月保持稳定增持节奏。 市场人士指出，我国央行持续增持黄金可以有效分散风险，优化外汇储备结构，实现资产保值增值。另 外，黄金储备是主权货币信用的重要基石，充足的黄金储备，向全球市场传递了"人民币价值有实物资 产支撑"的信号，增强了国际社会对人民币的信心。同时，也为人民币在跨境贸易结算、国际储备货币 竞争中提供了"压舱石"，有助于推动人民币国际化进程。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，黄金长期上涨的基本逻辑依然稳固：一方面，地缘政治冲突和大 国博弈加剧进一步削弱了市场对美元信用的信心；另一方面，在"去美元化"趋势下，各国央行持续通过 增持黄金优化外汇储备结构。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）在去年10月发布的全球外汇储备货币构成数据显示，截至去年第二季度末， 美元在全球外汇储备中的占比已降至56%左右，创下自1995年以来的新低。 与此同时，各国央行，尤其是新兴市场央行持续购金以对冲美元风险与地缘不确定性，形成结构性买 盘，推动黄金在全球央行储备资产中的占比逐步攀升。同时，美联储引领的全球降息周期 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,579 billion, an increase of $115 billion from November, marking a rise of 0.34% and a continuous increase for five months [1][5] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index, which fell by 1.2% in December due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][5] - The overall economic stability and positive long-term trends in China support the maintenance of foreign exchange reserves at a stable level [1][5] Group 2: Gold Reserves - By the end of December, China's gold reserves stood at 74.15 million ounces (approximately 2,306.323 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2][6] - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by geopolitical tensions and a shift towards "de-dollarization," leading central banks to optimize their foreign exchange reserve structures by increasing gold holdings [4][8] - The necessity for central banks to continue accumulating gold is rising, as it enhances the credibility of sovereign currencies and supports the gradual internationalization of the Renminbi [4][9]

2025年全年，中国黄金储备增加了86万盎司。 1月7日，中国人民银行更新的官方储备资产数据显示，截至2025年末，中国黄金储备为7415万盎司，较 去年11月末增加3万盎司。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，2025年12月份，美联储如期降息，叠加俄乌停火前景受挫、美委 冲突升级，伦敦金价格由10月末的4200美元/盎司左右震荡上行至4300美元上方。黄金长期上涨的基本 逻辑依然稳固：一方面，地缘政治冲突和大国博弈加剧进一步削弱了市场对美元信用的信心；另一方 面，在"去美元化"趋势下，各国央行持续通过增持黄金优化外汇储备结构，世界黄金协会数据显示， 2025年10月全球央行净购金53吨，创下年内单月最高水平。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，伴随美联储持续降息，全球地缘政治风险居高不下，近期国际金价 延续快速上涨势头，2025年12月央行增持黄金规模继续处于2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平。近期 央行继续增持黄金，主要原因是美国新政府上台后，全球政治、经济形势出现新变化，国际金价有可能 在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。这意味着从控制成本角度出发暂停增持黄金的必要性下降，而从优化国 际储备结构角度增持黄金 ...

1月7日，昨日黄金市场上演了一场精彩的探底回升行情，多空博弈后多头强势掌控局面，日线收出的长 下影中阳线，为今日走势奠定了明确的多头基调。在全球避险情绪暗流涌动、技术面突破信号显现的背 景下，今日行情大概率延续强势，回踩布局多单成为核心交易逻辑。回顾昨日盘面走势，黄金早盘以 4450.6点位开盘后，短暂承压回落，空头试图发起冲击，将行情下探至4426.5的日线低点。但这一回落 并未引发恐慌性抛售，反而快速激活市场买盘力量，多头开始组织强势反攻，推动行情震荡拉升。随着 买盘资金的持续涌入，金价一路攀升，最高触及4497点位，尾盘虽有小幅整理，但最终收线于4495.5点 位，形成一根下影线极长的中阳线。这一形态的出现，绝非偶然，而是多空力量彻底转换的明确信号。 从技术面解析，这根长下影中阳线蕴含多重关键信息。首先，下影线部分反映出4426.5附近存在坚实的 支撑力量，空头打压未能突破下方承接盘，说明市场对当前价位的认可度较高，下方空间已被大幅压 缩。其次，中阳线实体饱满，且收盘价贴近日内高点，彰显了多头的绝对主导地位，意味着经过早盘的 洗盘后，多头已完成蓄力，成功扭转短期博弈格局。这种"探底回升"的走势，往往出现 ...