美股与美元之间的关系是否存在简单线性的联系？ 美股与美元之间的关系并非简单线性。市场普遍认为，美元走弱即意味着去美 元化，但实际上，去美元化是一个更为复杂的中长期过程，涉及全球投资者抛 弃美元资产，这将对美债和美股产生压力。然而，历史数据表明，美股和美元 之间并没有必然、直接且单向的关系。例如，在广场协议后，大幅贬值 50%的 情况下，美股仍然上涨；而在科网泡沫期间，美股下跌时，美元却走强。因此， 两者的关系有时是同向，有时是反向，并不总是一致。 去美元化对市场有哪些影响？ 美元与美股的关系：Hibor 如何影响港股流动性？ 20250616 摘要 美股和美元之间不存在必然的单向关系，历史数据显示两者走势有时同 向，有时反向，受多种因素影响，不能简单地将去美元化等同于短期汇 率波动，投资决策需谨慎。 美元走弱对美股有利，因龙头公司海外收益占比高，汇兑收益增加，且 降低整体金融条件，利好国内顺周期修复。但需注意去美元化是长期问 题，美债反映国家信用，美股反映私人部门产业趋势。 港股今年表现逊于全球大部分市场，虽 3 月前表现领先，但近期新消费、 生物科技及银行板块抱团紧密，交易拥挤度高。外资视角下，港股并未 显 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the "de-dollarization" trend and its impact on the U.S. economy, stock markets, and global asset allocation strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **De-dollarization vs. Dollar Weakness** - The weakening of the dollar does not equate to de-dollarization; a moderate depreciation may benefit U.S. multinational companies due to their high overseas revenue exposure [2][5][21]. 2. **Market Consensus on De-dollarization** - The current market consensus leans towards de-dollarization, but the timeline and extent of this trend remain uncertain. The correlation between dollar weakness and de-dollarization should be carefully evaluated [2][5]. 3. **U.S. vs. Hong Kong Stock Performance** - Recently, the U.S. stock market has outperformed the Hong Kong market, with historical patterns showing that the relationship between U.S. stocks and the dollar is not linear [3][4]. 4. **Impact of U.S. Economic Policies** - U.S. fiscal policy is currently balanced, alleviating concerns about fiscal health. The extension of tax reform measures aims to encourage new investments [12][14]. 5. **Credit Cycle Analysis** - The relative strength of the U.S. and Chinese economies can be assessed through their credit cycles, with the U.S. showing signs of recovery while China remains in a state of stagnation [6][8]. 6. **Inflation and Interest Rate Projections** - Current U.S. inflation is expected to rise but will remain below 3.5%. The outcome of U.S.-China negotiations could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [13][17]. 7. **Market Liquidity and Asset Scarcity** - The market is experiencing a paradox of abundant liquidity alongside asset scarcity, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which requires additional policy measures for significant improvement [39][41]. 8. **Future of Technology Investments** - The outlook for technology investments remains optimistic, with leading companies exceeding expectations, which may alleviate concerns about overcapacity in the tech sector [14][34]. 9. **Tariff Policies and Economic Impact** - Tariff policies are designed to support fiscal revenue for infrastructure projects, with current tariffs generating significant income to offset related expenditures [15][21]. 10. **Investment Strategies in Current Market Conditions** - Investors are advised against short-selling in the current environment due to potential market rebounds. A focus on dividend-paying assets is recommended to navigate volatility [25][44]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global De-dollarization Consensus** - The global consensus on de-dollarization may lead to mispricing in certain markets, particularly in the U.S. stock market, which could rebound in the fourth quarter [53]. 2. **Structural Opportunities in Hong Kong Market** - The Hong Kong market is witnessing a structural shift with a concentration of new economy companies, which may attract more investment despite the overall asset scarcity [50][51]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends** - Changes in consumer spending patterns, particularly among younger demographics, are influencing the new consumption market, presenting new investment opportunities [48][49]. 4. **Challenges in Real Estate Sector** - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, particularly in credit availability and rental yields, complicating recovery efforts [35][36]. 5. **Potential for New Trade Agreements** - In response to tariff uncertainties, there may be a shift towards new trade agreements with regions like Southeast Asia and the EU, as well as a focus on expanding overseas markets [32].

Group 1 - The U.S. military's dependence on rare earth elements has reached 97%, indicating a critical reliance that cannot be easily negotiated away [3] - The U.S. has limited domestic refining capabilities, with only 5% of global refining capacity, highlighting a significant vulnerability in the supply chain [3][5] - The Biden administration's efforts to establish a domestic rare earth supply chain have shown limited results, as reported by the Wall Street Journal [5] Group 2 - In 2023, 74% of the rare earth products imported by the U.S. came from China, underscoring the ongoing dependency on foreign sources [6] - Major U.S. companies like Apple and Tesla are facing supply chain pressures related to rare earth materials, prompting them to explore diversification strategies [8] - The shift in global market dynamics is leading to a reconfiguration of power, with countries moving towards de-dollarization and alternative currency settlements [10] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund reported that the U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 58.9% in Q1 2024, the lowest in 20 years, indicating a decline in U.S. influence [10] - The current situation reflects a broader issue for the U.S. in adjusting its stance towards China, as reliance on critical materials contradicts efforts for technological decoupling [11] - The resilience of China's industrial and policy frameworks suggests that the U.S. may face significant challenges in maintaining its position without addressing structural issues [13]

机构人士分析，逆全球化、去美元化的浪潮下，美元美债维持弱势，黄金上行的长线趋势不变，这为白银的贵 金属属性提供了强有力的支撑。4月下旬开始美国关税政策趋于缓和后，三季度全球市场可能会走经济回升的 逻辑。白银得益于其工业属性，在经济回升且金银比值高位的背景下或持续补涨。 白银基本面支撑上涨 白银的基本面确实处于比较好的状态中。白银的工业属性是下游需求的重要来源。白银具有优良的导电导热 性、延展性、较高的感光性，因此成为重要的工业金属。2020年之后，全球光伏新能源技术的发展推动了白银 需求的快速上行。2021至2023年，白银总需求上升约9540万盎司，其中工业需求上升9310万盎司，贡献增量的 约97.6%。 世界白银协会发布的《2025全球白银调查》数据显示，2024年全球白银总供应量为10.15亿盎司，其中一次矿 山生产供应量占比为81%；2024年全球白银总需求量为11.64亿盎司，其中工业需求为6.81亿盎司，占比达 58.5%，主要集中在电子电气（光伏）、钎焊合金和焊料等领域。 平安证券指出，全球白银2016—2024年供应总量CAGR达-0.5%。2024年全球矿产银总供给中伴生矿产量占比 约72 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of the ongoing tariff war initiated by Trump, highlighting its unexpected developments and the volatility in capital markets, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][4][5] - It notes that while some sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals are thriving, traditional economic sectors remain sluggish [1][4] - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the future of the tariff war and its impact on various assets such as US stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin [1][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the favorable and unfavorable factors affecting Trump's tariff policies, including political support and judicial constraints [4][5][6] - It mentions that the US stock market has shown resilience, with many companies reporting strong earnings despite macroeconomic uncertainties [6][7] - The discussion includes the potential for a basic tariff structure that may evolve into a more normalized state, reflecting the inherent complexities of trade negotiations [8][6] Group 3 - The article analyzes the recent "three kills" scenario in the US market, where the stock market, bond market, and dollar faced declines due to the tariff war [11][12] - It highlights the structural issues within the US economy, including rising debt levels and the challenges of maintaining dollar credibility amidst fiscal policies [11][12][13] - The article argues that while the US faces significant debt challenges, it is not necessarily worse off than other major economies, and the concept of "de-dollarization" is difficult to achieve [13][14] Group 4 - The article discusses the impact of the tariff war on the Chinese capital market, noting that the direct exposure of Chinese companies to the US market has decreased significantly [23][22] - It highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy and capital markets, suggesting that the current market dynamics are less affected by the tariff war compared to previous years [23][22] - The article emphasizes the ongoing structural changes within the Chinese economy, particularly the shift towards innovation and technology sectors [26][27] Group 5 - The article describes the current state of the Chinese stock market as a mix of high-performing sectors and struggling traditional industries, referred to as "half sea water, half fire" [26][27] - It points out that the real estate market's adjustment has been a significant factor affecting the overall economy, but there are signs of recovery and new growth opportunities in innovative sectors [27][28] - The article concludes that the market's future performance will depend on the balance between traditional and innovative sectors, with a focus on value and growth strategies [34][35]

本周一，国际金价延续强势上涨，亚洲时段现货黄金一度攀升0.6%至3450美元/盎司关口附近，距离4月 历史高点仅剩50美元空间。本轮涨势直接诱因仍为中东局势升级——以色列与伊朗周末爆发新一轮导弹 与无人机袭击，能源基础设施遭袭风险推高原油价格，同时加剧全球系统性风险溢价。 ETO Markets 核心观点：地缘政治不确定性已成为黄金短期核心驱动因素。若冲突范围进一步扩大，避 险资金或加速涌入黄金市场，推动金价快速突破历史峰值。 上周美国通胀与就业数据双双疲软，市场对美联储年内降息的预期升温。利率下行周期中，无息资产黄 金的相对吸引力持续上升。 3. 避险资金迁移路径清晰 Guardian Gold Australia分析师John Feeney指出："当前黄金买盘已非短期避险情绪驱动，长期资金正从 美债市场向黄金转移，央行储备多元化是重要推手。" 技术面：多头通道完整，警惕超买风险 日线格局：金价维持多头通道上轨运行，MACD指标呈现强劲金叉，动能柱持续放大，显示短线买盘充 沛。 多因素共振支撑金价创新高 1. 全球央行"去美元化"布局深化 2025年以来，黄金累计涨幅超30%，背后是美联储货币政策转向与美元 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 产业与宏观共振，资源品全面开花 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周是关键节点，美元下破"箱体"+地缘冲突升级共振，金价重回上升通道，权益恢复弹性， 重视突破新高前的配置际遇。本周核心两点触发黄金重回上升通道：1）美元指数破过去 2 年 震荡箱体进一步走弱。对应周三公布 5 月 CPI 低预期，联储担忧滞胀并未到来，降息概率回 升。美国经济在"滞胀"和"衰退"或走向后者。传统框架/衰退路径是今年驱动金价进一步新 高的重要因子。我们依旧维持金价延续上涨至第二轮第一次降息落地；2）以伊地缘冲突再起， 催生避险情绪进一步助力金价向上弹性；同时我们欣喜看到黄金股摆脱过去 1 个月对金价弱化 的弹性，在周五出现显著修复。我们认为第二波贵金属股行情或启动。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S04905190800 ...

Core Points - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of June 13, with the CFETS index at 95.49, the BIS index at 100.93, and the SDR index at 90.36, marking their lowest levels since December 2020, July 2023, and August 2020 respectively [1][2] Exchange Rate Trends - The USD briefly fell below its annual low but recovered due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, ending the week down over 1% at 98.15. Non-USD currencies rose, with the Swiss franc and Japanese yen gaining 1.34% and 0.54% respectively, and the euro rising 1.33% [5] - The RMB against the USD showed a middle price of 7.1772, up 73 points for the week, while the onshore and offshore RMB closed at 7.1813 and 7.18955, with slight fluctuations [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts express optimism for the RMB's future, suggesting that the policy to maintain exchange rate "resilience" will likely keep the RMB's volatility low in the second half of the year. The RMB's nominal exchange rate remains competitive due to adjustments through low inflation [6][7] - Predictions for the USD/RMB exchange rate by the end of 2025 are set at 6.98, with expectations of structural opportunities for RMB assets and offshore RMB capital markets amid a trend of de-dollarization [7] Domestic Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a 1.7% drop in energy prices [8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, influenced by international factors and domestic energy price declines [8] - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year [8]

一、现货黄金基本面： ①地缘政治风险持续升温 中东局势因沙特与法国推动巴勒斯坦建国会议而复杂化，以色列与伊朗的核威慑对峙进一步加剧区域紧张。同时，俄乌冲突升级，俄罗斯对乌克兰发动大规 模无人机袭击，波兰紧急部署战机应对边境威胁，东欧地缘风险显著上升。地缘不确定性直接推升避险需求，伦敦金现价格近期维持在3360.00美元/盎司以 上高位震荡，反映市场对冲突升级的担忧。 ②美国通胀与货币政策预期博弈 尽管美国5月CPI同比2.4%符合预期，核心CPI环比0.1%低于市场预测，但关税传导效应已开始显现，服装、家具等进口商品价格因特朗普政府关税政策出现 上涨，可能延缓通胀回落进程。美联储6月维持利率不变，但暗示下半年可能加息，市场对9月降息的预期降温至50%以下，美元指数在CPI数据公布后短暂 下滑至98.87，为黄金提供短期反弹动力。不过，消费者通胀预期回落（一年期通胀预期从3.6%降至3.2%）缓解了部分政策压力，黄金短期走势需关注6月 CPI数据对美联储政策路径的指引。 ③央行购金与去美元化趋势强化 综合来看，当前黄金基本面呈现"地缘风险主导、政策预期分化、央行购金托底"的格局。中东与俄乌冲突的持续发酵、美国通 ...

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