1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market has been affected by numerous non - fundamental factors recently. As August approaches, fundamentals will become the dominant factor. It is advisable for investors to adopt a light - position hedging strategy. The overall futures prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate, and basis and inventory can be used as benchmarks for hedging [3]. - For different varieties: - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors support prices, but there is supply pressure. The high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide short - term support. Oil prices will oscillate, and geopolitical risks should be monitored [9]. - Asphalt: Spot prices are falling, and futures prices fluctuate around 3600 yuan/ton. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is significant downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and reduced demand. It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Although there are negative factors, the current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil** - Price: Overnight prices rose. - Main logic: The risk of increased US sanctions on Russian oil has increased. There is supply pressure from OPEC +'s production increase, but high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide support. - Outlook: The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure will balance each other, leading to price oscillation. Geopolitical risks should be watched [9]. - **Asphalt** - Price: The main futures contract closed at 3602 yuan/ton, with spot prices in different regions varying. - Main logic: OPEC +'s production increase will put pressure on the cracking spread. The accumulation of floating storage and supply pressure on raw materials will affect futures prices. Demand is not strong enough for a bull market. - Outlook: The absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 2879 yuan/ton. - Main logic: OPEC +'s possible over - production, falling natural gas prices, and reduced power generation demand will lead to increased supply and decreased demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 3588 yuan/ton. - Main logic: It follows crude oil prices. There are negative factors such as reduced shipping demand, but the low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil. - Outlook: It will follow the oscillation of crude oil prices [12]. - **PX** - Price: On July 28, CFR China Taiwan was 851 (- 23) dollars/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment led to price drops, but the increase in crude oil prices at night provided cost support. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 4845 (- 55) yuan/ton. - Main logic: Weak polyester yarn sales, cooling commodity sentiment, but cost support remains. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in early August [14]. - **Pure Benzene** - Price: On July 28, the 2603 contract closed at 6241 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The improvement in fundamentals was limited by inventory pressure. - Outlook: The market may enter an oscillation period, and attention should be paid to high - level statements and Fed data [15]. - **Styrene** - Price: On July 28, the East China spot price was 7340 (- 160) yuan/ton. - Main logic: There is a weakening expectation in supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to commodity sentiment [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - Price: On July 28, the DCE main contract 2509 closed at 4436 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and typhoon - induced inventory reduction. However, supply is expected to increase in August and September. - Outlook: Inventory may reach an inflection point [17][18]. - **Short - fiber** - Price: On July 28, the PF2509 contract closed at 6482 yuan/ton. - Main logic: Cooling sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees will remain stable, and prices will follow raw materials [18][19]. - **Bottle - chip** - Price: On July 28, the East China market price dropped to 6035 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of "anti - involution" sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees have support, and prices will follow raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol** - Price: On July 28, the Taicang spot price was 2385 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and the drag from coal prices. There is limited impact from policies, and the upper price limit is restricted by downstream feedback. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Urea** - Price: On July 22, the factory - warehouse and market low prices were 1780 (+ 20) and 1830 (+ 20) yuan/ton respectively. - Main logic: Strong supply and weak demand. Market sentiment temporarily boosts prices, but the fundamental support is limited. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the return to fundamentals [22]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 7300 (- 50) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand in the off - season. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [25]. - **PP** - Price: On July 28, the East China PP拉丝 price was 7100 (- 40) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of macro - level sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [26][27]. - **PL** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong low - end price was 6170 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The short - term decline in commodity sentiment and the influence of PP and methanol fluctuations. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [27]. - **PVC** - Price: On July 28, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 5150 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment and fundamental pressure, with an expected increase in production and cost. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy details [29]. - **Caustic Soda** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong 32% caustic soda price was 2594 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment, low inventory in Shandong, and cost support. - Outlook: The downward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to policy orientation [29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.8 with a change of 0.02, and PX having various inter - period spreads with corresponding changes [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 206 with a change of 41, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82180 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 340 with a change of 185 [33]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific content is not fully presented, it is expected to involve detailed monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc. [34][46][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the concentrated release of positive sentiment last week, the market cooled down this week. Attention should be paid to tariff disturbances around August 1st and the messages released by the Politburo meeting. The five major steel products had a slight reduction in inventory. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and the apparent demand had a significant increase supported by the recovery of speculative demand, leading to a reduction in total inventory again. The decline in the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils was greater than the reduction in production, and the total inventory increased slightly, but the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Currently, the inventory contradiction of finished products was not prominent, and the core of off-season trading remained focused on macro - policy expectations. After the previous concentrated release of benefits, steel prices faced pressure at high levels, and with the pressure decline of coking coal at the raw material end, the cost decreased, and the black series was under pressure, showing a short - term weak and volatile operation [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil had a phased recovery, and the arrival volume was still in a downward process. The daily output of hot metal decreased slightly but was still at a high level year - on - year, and the port clearance volume decreased slightly. The port inventory was stable without obvious inventory accumulation pressure. In the medium term, there was still an expectation of an increase in overseas shipments of iron ore in the second half of the year. After the digestion of the macro - positive sentiment last week, iron ore faced pressure at high levels and the pressure of a decline this week [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the domestic mine production was stable. With the acceleration of market transactions, the inventory pressure was relieved. Coking enterprises were in a loss state due to cost pressure, and some low - inventory coking enterprises limited production to support prices. The increase in coke prices had been launched for four rounds. After multiple limit - up of coking coal, the Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit of coking coal futures, and short - term prices faced the pressure of a decline [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Macro - sentiment recovery and rising raw material costs led to steel prices reaching new highs. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all increased. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders in futures contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, and the price differences also changed. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The market trading core was concentrated on macro - policy expectations and raw material price fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 211.96 tons (up 1.39% month - on - month, down 2.18% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 tons (down 1.14% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased [15][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (unchanged month - on - month, up 1.00% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 72.02% (up 10.66% month - on - month, up 10.36% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 282 yuan/ton (up 64.91% week - on - week, up 362 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 146 yuan/ton (up 78.77% week - on - week, up 307 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 216.58 tons (up 5.05% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.24 tons (down 2.64% month - on - month, down 1.86% year - on - year) [35][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 538.64 tons (down 0.85% month - on - month, down 29.15% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 345.16 tons (up 0.66% month - on - month, down 19.76% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 4.24% month - on - month and decreased by 16.60% year - on - year. The weekly land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 14.31% month - on - month and decreased by 45.13% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, up 5.5% and 8.1% month - on - month, and up 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 104 (up 4.16% month - on - month, up 1.75% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2677.8 tons (up 8.02% month - on - month, up 7.65% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2240.5 tons (down 5.51% month - on - month, up 22.97% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 242.33 tons (down 0.21 tons month - on - month, up 2.62 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.15 tons (down 2.35% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.51 days (up 0.75% month - on - month, down 5.84% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 13790.38 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, down 8.61% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8885.22 tons (up 0.71% month - on - month, down 3.47% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.51 days (up 2.48% month - on - month, up 13.36% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.9% (up 0.96% month - on - month, down 4.37% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.31% (down 0.86% month - on - month, down 9.14% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 154400 tons (up 21.57% month - on - month, down 2.72% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 54 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 97 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45% (up 0.60% month - on - month, down 0.90% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.97% [84]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 841.27 tons (up 6.46% month - on - month, up 11.57% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 799.34 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month, up 7.10% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 292.34 tons (down 9.07% month - on - month, up 5.73% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50.12 tons (down 9.78% month - on - month, up 42.35% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 639.98 tons (up 0.15% month - on - month, up 17.86% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.13 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month, up 0.20% year - on - year) [90][96]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the fourth round of price increases [97]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, and the 10 - 01 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore and the coil - to - rebar spread both decreased slightly [104][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks and trading suggestions for multiple commodities and financial products, including methanol, gold, steel, coal, etc., based on their current market data and supply - demand situations [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Methanol - Market data: Jiangsu Taicang methanol market price is 2488 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; port inventory is 72.58 tons, down 6.44 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 33.98 tons, down 1.25 tons weekly; order to be delivered is 24.48 tons, up 0.17 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 83.98%, up 1.56% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 73.12%, down 0.49% weekly [2]. - Outlook: Domestic methanol production expected to rise, downstream demand stable. Port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 2460. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. Gold - Market news: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment and $150 billion of US energy products [2]. - Outlook: US - EU tariff negotiations may be smooth, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum, which is positive for gold. Gold is still bearish in a range but may rebound in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar's movement [2]. Rebar - Market data: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate is 83.46%, unchanged from last week; capacity utilization is 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points; profitability is 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points; daily pig iron output is 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons [4]. - Outlook: In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Low inventory and strong raw materials provide support. Prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the prices of furnace materials [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: For 247 steel mills, daily coke output is 47.16 tons, up 0.07 tons; capacity utilization is 86.97%, up 0.13%; coke inventory is 639.98 tons, up 0.99 tons; coking coal inventory is 799.51 tons, up 8.41 tons; injection coal inventory is 419.44 tons, up 2.99 tons [5]. - Outlook: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures, causing a sharp drop in the market. Market participants will return to rationality. Further price increases require unexpected macro - policies. Suggestion is to participate in short - term range trading [5]. Iron Ore - Market data: Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory is 8885.22 tons, up 63.06 tons; daily consumption is 301.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.51 days, up 0.22 days [6]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, demand is slightly declining, and port inventory may decrease slightly. The upward momentum of ore prices is weakening, and the risk of correction is increasing. Wide - range fluctuations continue [6]. Soda Ash - Market data: National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; weekly output is 72.38 tons, down 1.28%; total inventory is 186.46 tons, down 2.15%; float glass operation rate is 75.68%, unchanged; average price is 1219 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; inventory is 6189.6 million weight boxes, down 4.69% [6]. - Outlook: Float glass operation is stable, inventory is decreasing, and prices are rising. The domestic soda ash market is strengthening in a range. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 1455. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of July 25, the number of US active drilling rigs is 415, the lowest since September 2021, down 7 from the previous week and 67 from the same period last year [7]. - Outlook: OPEC+ will decide on September's crude oil quota next weekend. There is a high probability of completing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase of 300,000 barrels per day. If the production increase is fully realized, there will be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, and crude oil prices are expected to be weak in a range. Suggestion is to wait and see [7]. Bottle Chips - Market data: Weekly production is 32.23 tons, down 0.28 tons; price in the East China market is 5991 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; industry profit is - 225.39 yuan/ton, down 16.95%; downstream soft - drink industry operation rate is expected to be stable at 85 - 95%, and oil refinery operation rate may rise slightly to 67% [8]. - Outlook: Supply is decreasing, providing some support, but downstream stocking willingness is low. Crude oil is fluctuating. A range - trading approach is suggested for bottle chips [8]. Plastic - Market data: North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7358 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; weekly production is 26.96 tons, down 2.98%; enterprise inventory is 17.26 tons, down 4.22%; daily production profit from oil - based is - 425 yuan/ton; average operation rate of downstream products is down 0.1%, with the agricultural film operation rate up 0.2% and PE packaging film operation rate down 0.5% [8]. - Outlook: LLDPE supply may increase, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is supported by costs. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 7410. Suggestion is to wait and see [8]. Rubber - Market data: Thai raw rubber prices are 55.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 50 Thai baht/kg for cup lump. As of July 24, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises is 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; for full - steel tire enterprises, it is 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous week and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Outlook: Global rubber production areas have normal weather. Rubber inventory in China is slightly decreasing. The domestic tire industry is recovering, but finished - product inventory is high, and consumer demand has limited impact on prices. A range - trading approach is suggested, and attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict [9]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of July 25, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.67 kg, up 0.18 kg; weekly slaughter operation rate is 26.77%, up 0.17%; profit from purchasing piglets is - 117.52 yuan/head, down 45.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 72.1 yuan/head, down 42.76 yuan/head; piglet price is 444.76 yuan/head, unchanged from last week [10]. - Outlook: Pig prices are stable and slightly rising. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is increasing, but the high - temperature off - season continues, and there is no strong upward momentum in the short - term. There are strong policy expectations. Suggestion is to short at appropriate times. Farmers can sell hedging according to their slaughter plans [10]. Palm Oil - Market data: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are 1,029,585 tons, down 104,645 tons or 9.23% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri, exports are 896,484 tons, down 160,982 tons or 15.22% [11]. - Outlook: The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy lacks a solid foundation, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are decreasing. The domestic market shows a deeper inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and terminal demand is weak. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in a high - level range in the short - term [11]. Soybean Meal - Market data: In the 30th week (July 19 - 25), oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2389 million tons, and the operation rate is 62.94%, 380 tons higher than expected [12]. - Outlook: The news of the Ministry of Agriculture's plan to reduce pig production and promote soybean meal substitutes put pressure on the market. Unpriced contracts at the end of the month provide some support, but high inventory continues to suppress spot prices. The M09 contract is expected to be weak in a range in the short - term [12]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Market data: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. New - energy industries represented by equipment manufacturing had rapid profit growth [12]. - Outlook: The economy still has resilience. Before the July Politburo meeting, the start of the Yajiang Hydropower Station indicates an increase in fiscal support in the second half of the year. Policy factors are negative for the bond market. The bond market's main logic is unclear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the July Politburo meeting [12]. Silver - Market data: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4% [13]. - Outlook: This week will enter the expected market for the July Fed meeting, and market expectations are still low. Non - farm payroll data will provide further guidance. Silver is expected to be slightly bearish in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the synchronization of gold and silver prices and the impact of gold on silver [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is warm, and the prices of finished products continue to show a strong trend. The cost side provides obvious support for steel prices. The start of the Medog Hydropower Station has significantly increased the market's expectation for the future demand of building materials such as finished products and cement. In the short term, there is an expectation of production capacity reduction on the supply side, and the demand side is boosted by the launch of large - scale infrastructure projects. With the current low inventory levels of finished products, prices may have a basis for continuous strengthening. The market is currently more affected by policies and sentiment, and future attention should be paid to policy signals, terminal demand repair, and cost - side support [10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The hot - rolled coil's disk profit is 185 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the disk is about - 167 yuan/ton, with a relatively high valuation [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.17 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 37,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.9% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210,000 tons, and the pig iron output remained at a relatively high level [8] - **Demand Side**: This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.15 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 3.9% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. Due to the price increase, the actual demand decreased slightly this week [9] - **Inventory**: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.4516 million tons, with a slight accumulation [10] - **Trading Strategy**: The recommendation is to wait and see, and no specific trading strategy details are provided [12] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are presented, including the spot price of hot - rolled Q235B 4.75mm, various regional price differences, contract basis, futures price differences, and price ratios between different products, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [18][21][23] 3. Profit and Inventory - Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces for rebar, and the inventory data of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [54][56][59] 4. Cost Side - Charts display the futures closing prices of iron ore, coke, and the price of scrap steel, as well as pig iron output, iron - making cost, and billet price, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [74][76][79] 5. Supply Side - Charts show the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year change, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates in different regions and samples, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [91][93][98] 6. Demand Side - The consumption of hot - rolled coils this week was 3.15 million tons, with a week - on - week change of - 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 3.9% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. Multiple charts show the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the production and sales data of downstream industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and agricultural machinery, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [9][109][110]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a strong trend. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. The start - up of the Medog Hydropower Station has boosted market expectations for future demand for building materials. In the short term, there are expectations of production capacity reduction on the supply side and demand is stimulated by large - scale infrastructure projects. With low inventory levels, steel prices may have a basis for continuous increase. The notice on coal production verification has also driven up coal prices, further supporting steel prices. Currently, the market is more influenced by policies and sentiment than by fundamentals [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - side**: This week, the total output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a slight decrease from last week. The blast furnace profit in East China remained around 220 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit increased significantly [7]. - **Demand - side**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The demand showed a slight recovery but remained weak overall [7]. - **Imports and Exports**: 155,000 tons of steel billets were imported in June [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The rebar inventory continued to decline [8]. - **Profit**: The pig iron cost was 2540 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 256 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 33 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills continued to rise, and their production willingness was strong [8]. - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 1.6% [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy was recommended [11]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: The 01 - contract basis was - 103 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 128 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 25 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was 84 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Spreads**: Beijing's coil - rebar spread was 150 yuan/ton (last week: 180 yuan/ton), Shanghai's was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and Guangzhou's was 0 yuan/ton (last week: - 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 60 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 22 yuan/ton (last week: 22 yuan/ton). Beijing's premium for spiral rebar was 130 yuan/ton, Shanghai's was 180 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou's was 190 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week [27][30][33]. - **Prices and Ratios**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3240 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3340 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 452 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the US, the EU, and the Middle East were 460, 995, 605, and 610 US dollars/ton respectively. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 871 yuan/ton [36][39]. 3.3 Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton from last week. The blast furnace profit of rebar was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2242 yuan/ton, the pig iron cost was 3358 yuan/ton, and the average pig iron cost of 64 steel mills was 2540 yuan/ton [42][50]. 3.4 Supply - side - **Weekly Output**: The total weekly output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [54]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91% (unchanged from last week), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55%, a week - on - week increase from 52% [57]. - **Pig Iron Output**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.42 million tons, the same as last week [61]. - **Regional Output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 500,000 tons (last week: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 740,000 tons (last week: 770,000 tons). In the East China region, it was 880,000 tons, including 340,000 tons in Jiangsu, 80,000 tons in Shandong, and 210,000 tons in Anhui. In Guangdong, it was 200,000 tons, and in Guangxi, it was 60,000 tons [65][68][71]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Building Material Transactions**: The weekly average building material transactions of 237 national distributors were 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and in Shanghai, it was 16,600 tons (unchanged from last week). The transactions of building steel in different regions are also provided [75]. - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.17 million tons, and in East China, it was 0.84 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 0.3 million tons, and in South China, it was 0.29 million tons. Other regional consumption data are also available [85][87]. - **Related Prices**: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 470 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 465 yuan/ton [95]. 3.6 Inventory - **Total and Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The steel billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.07 million tons (last week: 1.04 million tons) [8][100]. - **Regional Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 5.47 million tons, in East China was 2.45 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.57 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.17 million tons. Other regional inventory data are also provided [103].

铁合金期货方面，方正中期期货铁合金研究员段智栈表示，7月25日，铁合金（锰硅、硅铁）期货主力合约价格放量涨停，主要是源于在锰系头部企业研讨 会上，高、中、低、微碳锰铁生产企业节能减排30%，同时硅锰合金生产企业节能减排40%，市场对未来铁合金产量有收缩预期。短期来看，锰硅期货、硅 铁期货价格仍有上行可能，但需关注企业减产情况。 焦煤期货方面，紫金天风期货交易咨询部研究员李肖凡表示，近期焦煤市场利好政策频发，市场对于焦煤期货远月合约对应的市场供需预期逐步收紧，令短 期情绪升温，整体结构维持强势。随着焦煤期货主力合约价格进一步冲高，市场资金博弈愈发剧烈，近期盘中波动幅度明显放大，虽然目前整体结构仍维持 强势，但需留意盘面加速反弹行情当中隐藏的回调风险。 碳酸锂期货方面，南华期货表示，从基本面看，矿端与锂盐端现货市场成交活跃，行业利润端呈现改善迹象，矿端涨价进一步夯实成本支撑。不过，近期碳 酸期货价格波动增大，注意风险。 文华财经数据显示，截至收盘，锰硅期货主力合约收于涨停价6414元/吨，涨8.02%；碳酸锂期货主力合约收于涨停价80520元/吨，涨7.99%；焦煤期货主力 合约收于涨停价1259元/吨，涨7.9 ...

Group 1 - Japanese rubber futures have risen for six consecutive weeks, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1] - Thai raw material prices have surged, suggesting increased production costs that may support further price increases [1] - The slowdown in inventory accumulation in the spot market, along with a reduction in port inventories, may signal changing market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The manganese silicon futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 6000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 6142.00 CNY, reflecting a 3.30% increase [1] - The overall supply and demand relationship for manganese silicon is stable, influenced by the first round of coke price increases and expectations for a second round, providing cost support [1] - The inventory of silicon iron has decreased by 9.54% in a week, indicating a healthy supply-demand relationship that drives prices [1] Group 2 - The basic fundamentals for manganese silicon have improved this week, with both supply and demand increasing, leading to a slight reduction in inventory [2] - Current market conditions suggest that while there is cost support from manganese ore prices and electricity prices in major production areas, the overall support for current prices is limited [2] - There are expectations for a price decline in manganese ore, which may lead to downward pressure on manganese silicon prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillation", "oscillation with a downward bias", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of specific products [9][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strength of coal has ignited the energy - chemical chain, with low - inventory EG being the most prominent. The EU - US trade negotiation prospects affect overseas financial markets. The crude oil market is supported by low inventories in Europe and the US, and the overall profit of the chemical industry is expanding [2][3]. - The overall outlook for energy and chemicals is a strong - side oscillation. It is advisable for investors to participate with light positions and consider a hedging strategy of going long on coal - chemical products and short on oil - chemical products [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: The relaxation of US petroleum - related licenses for Venezuela may increase supply pressure. Although global on - land crude oil inventories are rising, the high operating rates of Chinese and US refineries and the strong profit stage continue, and the short - term improvement in demand expectations also supports oil prices. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high operating rates of domestic and foreign refineries and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure form a balance, resulting in oil price oscillation [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The spot price continues to fall, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates around 3600. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s over - expected production increase in August and September will increase heavy - oil supply, and the supply pressure at the raw material end will put pressure on the asphalt futures price. The demand side has a high valuation compared to other products, and the current foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price still faces great downward pressure. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s over - expected production increase, the decline in natural gas prices, and the release of high - sulfur fuel oil spot liquidity all contribute to the downward pressure. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [10][11]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. Although it has some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, its current valuation is low. - **Outlook**: It fluctuates with crude oil [13]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it oscillates upwards. - **Main Logic**: The strength of coal prices supports the upward movement of methanol. The supply in China may shrink, and the port inventory has decreased. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [23][24]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fades, the market returns to fundamentals, and it declines in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. Although the price has risen recently, the downstream purchasing is cautious. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the context of a strong - supply and weak - demand pattern [24][25]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Cost support becomes the new driving force. - **Main Logic**: The continuous strength of coal prices supports the rise of coal - chemical products. Although overseas devices are restarting and port inventories are slightly increasing, the driving force for the rise has switched to cost. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract may remain strong for a longer time than previously expected [19][21]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: Driven by enthusiastic sentiment and cost rebound. - **Main Logic**: The stabilization of crude oil prices supports the cost of PX. The supply side is affected by maintenance, and the demand side is stable. - **Outlook**: It oscillates [14]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the market atmosphere is enthusiastic, and the supply is expected to shrink in August. - **Main Logic**: Cost provides strong support, and the announced maintenance plans of large manufacturers in August are expected to reduce supply. The polyester load has moderately increased. - **Outlook**: It oscillates [15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: With the improvement of the macro - environment, downstream speculative stocking leads to inventory reduction. - **Main Logic**: Supported by upstream polyester raw materials and the "anti - involution" initiative, the downstream has stocking behavior, which promotes inventory reduction. - **Outlook**: The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [21]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: Polyester raw materials are strong, and the processing fee is passively compressed. - **Main Logic**: Supported by upstream costs, the price oscillates upwards, but the processing fee is compressed due to the strength of raw materials. - **Outlook**: The processing fee has a lower - bound support, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [22]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the macro - environment, it oscillates upwards. - **Main Logic**: The short - term macro - environment provides four - fold boosts. Although the supply side has an increasing trend, the demand side is weak. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27][28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: The spot support is limited, but the macro - environment dominates the market, and it may oscillate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The short - term weakness of oil prices makes the spot price weak. As a new variety, there is significant capital game behavior. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [28]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the macro - environment, it oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The short - term macro - environment provides multiple boosts. Although the supply side has pressure, the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Southeast Asian geopolitics may affect imports, leading to a rebound. - **Main Logic**: The risk of a short - squeeze in styrene has been eliminated, and the Q3 balance sheet of pure benzene has improved. Although the explicit and implicit inventories are high, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Outlook**: The Q3 fundamentals improve, and the spot may oscillate strongly, but the amplitude is limited by high inventories [16][17]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Southeast Asian geopolitics may support the cost, leading to a rebound. - **Main Logic**: The improvement of the pure - benzene fundamentals has no obvious negative impact on styrene. After the price drops rapidly, styrene is expected to rebound. - **Outlook**: Supported by macro - policies, it is expected to oscillate strongly this week [17][18]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: The positive factors in the domestic petrochemical industry boost market sentiment. Although the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure, the cost is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: It is cautiously optimistic in the short term, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - and long - term [30]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation but weak reality, with a weak rebound. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached the peak. Although the demand from the alumina industry is increasing, the overall supply is still high. - **Outlook**: The positive policy expectation promotes the rebound of the caustic - soda market, and long positions can take profits at high levels to avoid risks [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [34]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Data on cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [35]. The report also provides some data monitoring for specific chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc., but no detailed analysis is provided in this summary.