FICC日报 | 2025-06-04 股指低开高走，金融板块表现强势 市场分析 特朗普提高关税。国内方面，美方称中方违反日内瓦会谈共识，对此，外交部发言人林剑表示，商务部发言人此 前已就此阐明中方严正立场。日内瓦共识是中美双方在相互尊重、平等协商的原则下达成的。美方在毫无事实根 据的情况下，对中方抹黑指责，出台对华芯片出口管制、暂停对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证 等极端打压措施，严重破坏日内瓦共识，也损害了中方正当权益。中方对此坚决反对，已提出严正交涉。林剑强 调，施压和胁迫不是同中方打交道的正确方式。我们督促美方尊重事实，停止散布虚假信息，纠正有关错误做法， 以实际行动维护双方达成的共识。海外方面，特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%， 该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关税仍将维持在25%。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，上证指数涨0.43%收于33631.98点，创业板指涨0.48%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，美容护理、纺织服饰、银行行业领涨，家用电器、钢铁、煤炭行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市 成交 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - LME copper prices increased by 0.24% to $9,638.5 per ton, while SHFE copper rose by 0.5% to ¥78,180 per ton, with the domestic import window closed [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The current copper price is facing a directional choice, with resistance observed in the ¥78,000 - ¥80,000 per ton range [1] Group 2: Nickel Market - LME nickel prices fell by 0.23% to $15,475 per ton, while SHFE nickel rose by 0.25% to ¥121,860 per ton [1] - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons [1] - Nickel prices may experience short-term recovery but are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand [1] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2509 closing at ¥3,036 per ton, up 1.27% [1] - SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2507 closing at ¥19,990 per ton, up 0.25% [1] - The supply and demand for alumina are both increasing, with support from the mining sector, while the demand for electrolytic aluminum remains under pressure [1] Group 4: Silicon Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, polysilicon prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥34,360 per ton, down 2.65% [1] - Industrial silicon prices also declined, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥7,070 per ton, down 1.39% [1] - The reduction in electricity prices during the southwest flood season is leading to production resumption, while downstream procurement is decreasing [1] Group 5: Lithium Market - Carbonate lithium futures for contract 2507 increased by 0.33% to ¥59,940 per ton, while spot prices decreased and warehouse receipts fell by 60 tons [1] - Lithium ore prices are declining with increased supply, while demand from the positive electrode production is average but terminal sales are strong [1] - The fundamentals appear bearish, but price volatility is heightened due to capital market dynamics [1]

黄金周二（6月3日）早盘小幅上涨3392附近后开始震荡下跌，欧盘以及美盘初延续下跌，最低跌至3333附近，尾盘震荡反弹，日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 1、美元走强：美元周二上涨0.6%，从逾一个月低点回升，以美元计价的黄金对外国买家成本上升，抑制需求。不过，美元短期回升未改变整体承压趋势， 黄金作为避险资产吸引力仍在，但短期上行空间受美元强势限制。 2、贸易战与关税政策：特朗普提议将进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%，引发市场关注。欧盟表示将推动美国降税，但美国要求贸易伙伴短时间内提交修订提 议，谈判紧迫性使市场情绪谨慎。贸易战可能致全球经济增长放缓，推高避险需求利好黄金，同时美元阶段性走强和市场对美联储政策观望又限制黄金上 涨。此外，美国参议院审议的减税和支出法案预计未来十年为联邦政府增加3.8万亿美元债务，可能削弱美元长期吸引力，间接支撑金价，而短期内外汇期 权市场交易员普遍预期美元进一步走软，或为黄金提供反弹机会。 3、美国劳动力市场疲软：美国4月职位空缺增加19.1万至739.1万，但裁员人数创九个月最大增幅达178.6万，裁员主要集中在中小企业的专业和商业服务、 医疗保健及餐饮行业。4月辞职人数减少15 ...

Core Insights - The JOLTS report indicates an unexpected rise in job vacancies in April, suggesting a healthy labor demand despite economic uncertainties [1][4] - The report shows a rebound in hiring activity, with job openings reaching 7.391 million, exceeding expectations of 7.1 million [1][4] - The overall trend in job vacancies has remained stable between 7 million and 8 million over the past year, with a significant increase in private sector job openings [3][4] Group 1: Job Market Dynamics - April job openings increased by 0.691 million from the previous month, with the prior month's figure revised slightly upward [1][4] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals remains at 1.0, consistent with pre-pandemic levels, indicating a balanced labor supply and demand [4] - Job openings in April were primarily driven by the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and social assistance [4] Group 2: Hiring and Layoff Trends - Hiring in April reached its highest level in nearly a year, with an increase of 169,000 to 5.6 million [4] - Layoffs rose to the highest level since October of the previous year, increasing by 196,000 to 1.79 million [4] - The number of voluntary resignations decreased by 150,000 to 3.2 million, indicating a slight decline in worker confidence [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The labor market is returning to a more normal state, supporting the Federal Reserve's view of a healthy employment situation [6] - Economists anticipate a slowdown in the labor market in the coming months due to the impact of tariff policies, although current data does not yet reflect this [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with potential rate cuts not anticipated until September [6] Group 4: Data Reliability and Market Reactions - Some economists question the reliability of the JOLTS data due to a low response rate in the current survey [7] - Following the JOLTS report, market reactions included a decline in gold prices, an increase in the dollar index, and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current performance of major stock indices, notable movements in technology and semiconductor stocks, the outlook for Chinese companies, and the economic forecasts from the OECD regarding the U.S. and global growth rates. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - As of the report, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.32% to 5954.92 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.13% to 42358.49 points, and the Nasdaq index climbed by 0.70% to 19377.49 points [1] - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 1% as some models were included in China's 2025 new energy vehicle catalog, while Google fell by 1.1% [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector exhibited varied performance, with COHERENT up by 1.4%, ARM rising by 1.3%, NVIDIA increasing by 1.0%, and Broadcom gaining 0.9%, while ASML dropped by 1.6% [4] Group 3: Chinese Companies - Chinese companies saw significant gains, with Hesai Technology surging by 8.3%, Sunwoda rising by 3.1%, and Xunlei increasing by 2.7%. Li Auto also rose over 6%, reporting a May delivery of 40,856 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The OECD has revised down the U.S. and global economic growth forecasts, with the U.S. growth rate for 2025 lowered from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth forecast reduced to 2.9% [6] - Inflation is expected to rise to 3.2%, with the U.S. potentially nearing 4% [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech did not provide new signals regarding interest rate policy, as the market anticipates the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report [6][8] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that if the Trump administration's tariff measures are not as aggressive as expected, the Fed may significantly lower rates within the next 15 months [7]

Core Viewpoint - The belief that U.S. Treasury bonds are a safe haven is facing unprecedented challenges due to rising yields and concerns over fiscal deficits and debt levels [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - In late May, the yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surpassed the critical psychological level of 5.1%, leading to a significant sell-off in the long-term bond market [1]. - Fitch Ratings has warned that even if the U.S. fiscal deficit improves temporarily in 2025, it is expected to widen again, with debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 120% by 2026, significantly higher than the median for AA-rated countries [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Current inflation is expected to remain around 4%, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3]. - The Fed is anticipated to only lower interest rates once in the fourth quarter of this year, maintaining a cautious stance despite a projected economic slowdown [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Business Sentiment - There is a noticeable decline in "soft data" related to business investment and hiring intentions, indicating weakening market sentiment [4]. - However, "hard data" such as unemployment claims and monthly employment reports do not yet show significant negative impacts on the labor market [4][5]. Group 4: Trade Uncertainty and Investment Outlook - Policy uncertainty has surged, affecting consumer and business spending decisions, with companies likely to delay investment decisions [5][6]. - The impact of trade uncertainties and inflation pressures is expected to suppress corporate willingness to initiate new projects, potentially leading to slower investment growth and reduced productivity in the medium term [5][6].

技术上，纽期金、银呈现突破态势，前者站上3400美元，后者逼近年内高点。 策略上，黄金配置、投机多单头寸持有为主。 消息面上，2026年票委、达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，由于劳动力市场稳定、通胀略高于目标以及前景不 明朗，美联储正在密切关注一系列数据，以判断可能需要采取何种应对措施。2025年票委、芝加哥联储 主席古尔斯比表示，在关税政策带来的不确定性消散之后，美联储可以继续降息。俄乌第二轮谈判草草 结束，双方关于止战条件分歧依然巨大。经济数据方面，美国5月ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5，预期 49.5；连续三个月萎缩。美国4月核心PCE物价指数年率2.52%，为去通胀进程启动以来最低，月率小幅 回升至0.12%，为年内次低水平。名义利率回升幅度超盈亏平衡通胀率，实际利率小幅回升对黄金压力 增强。短端美德利差开始走阔对美元支撑增强。 资金面上，金银配置资金同时增持，截至6月3日，SPDR持仓933.07吨（+2.86吨），iShares持仓 14351.82吨（+48.07吨）。金银投机资金同时流出，前者连续6日减持，CME公布5月30日数据，纽期金 总持仓40.88万手（-13818手）；纽期银总持仓14.7 ...

智通财经6月2日电，美联储的LOGAN表示，对于所面临的风险，政策处于良好的状态；关税的潜在风 险是失业率和通胀上升。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market opened higher today, showing a complex trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which remains a key factor [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with core inflation still above target, leading to a stronger US dollar (currently around 101.98), which pressures gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve officials signal a dovish stance in the future, gold prices may receive a boost [1] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and military dynamics in the Yellow Sea, may drive short-term safe-haven demand for gold [3] - However, easing US-China tariffs and expectations of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could weaken market risk appetite, negatively impacting gold prices [3] - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) has shown frequent fluctuations in holdings, indicating significant market divergence [3] - Current gold prices are oscillating between $3280 and $3325, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3325; a breakout above $3325 could lead to a rise to $3365, while a drop below $3270 may see prices fall to $3260 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing price differentiation across different trading markets, influenced by an unclear global economic recovery outlook [4] - Geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions continue to disrupt the market, despite some countries implementing stimulus policies [4] - Industrial demand for silver is supported by its applications in photovoltaic and electronic industries, with steady growth in demand from the solar sector [4] - However, cyclical fluctuations in the electronics sector introduce uncertainty in silver demand [4] - Recent fluctuations in silver ETF holdings reflect investors' wavering confidence in the market [4] - Short-term support for silver prices is around $33 per ounce, with resistance seen at the $33.5-$33.8 per ounce range [6] - The MACD indicator shows signs of balance between bullish and bearish forces, while the RSI indicates a neutral to slightly bullish state [6] - The silver price is within an upward channel on the weekly chart, but faces resistance from previous highs, requiring strong trading volume for a breakout [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy positioning is deemed accurate, and maintaining stable policy interest rates is viewed as a positive decision [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes the appropriateness of its current policy stance [1] - The decision to keep interest rates stable is highlighted as a proactive measure [1]