央行官员表示，将按照中央政治局会议精神，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足适度宽松的 货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息。 人社部官员表示，将加快推出增量政策，对企业加大扩岗支持，对个人加大就业补贴支持，对受关税影 响较大的企业提高失业保险稳岗返还比例等。 商务部官员表示，将聚焦广大企业需求，及时解决困难问题，以钉钉子精神抓好已经出台的稳外贸政策 落地见效。 每经记者 郑步春 每经编辑 彭水萍 周一A股表现稍弱，各大股指普跌，全市场超4100个股下跌。截至收盘，上证综指跌0.2%至3288.41 点；深综指跌0.93%，创业板综指跌1.01%，科创50指数跌0.17%，北证50指数跌1.78%。全A总成交额 为10768亿元，较上周五的11370亿元略有萎缩。 银行、钢铁、电力等红利股表现较好，PEEK材料、游戏、珠宝首饰、培育钻石等板块表现也相对较 好。旅游酒店、食品饮料、乳业等消费类个股表现较弱，房地产板块也普跌。 周一上午国新办举行新闻发布会，发改委官员表示，更好发挥内需主动力作用，具体思路和方法也非常 明确，就是增加中低收入群体收入、大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，做强国内 ...

| ICTERHER | | | 投资咨询业务资格 · 证监许可 2012 · · | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 唐笛吹赤 1 | 17 | | 研究院:李泽钜 | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 月底中央政治局会议渐行渐近,政策预期犹存,股指赛略仍以逢低布局多 | | | | | 头为王。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | | | 关税不确定性仍高企。商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期反弹后价格存在回调 风险。 | | | 铝 | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确定性,铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 氧化铝供需格局有所好转,预计下行空间有限,但上行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese government is expected to introduce strong measures to boost consumption and stimulate domestic demand, which may create numerous opportunities in the stock market [1] - There is a significant anticipated stimulus policy aimed at boosting consumption and potential further policies in the real estate sector [1] - Compared to developed countries, China has considerable macro policy space, including leverage, monetary easing, and fiscal deficit levels, which can help stabilize the domestic macro economy [1] Group 2 - Domestic service consumption has been relatively low in recent years, but it is likely to be one of the sustainable growth directions for future domestic demand [2] - Leading domestic companies have been expanding overseas for years, particularly in sectors like home appliances, construction machinery, and lithium batteries, making these companies worthy of attention [2] - The power industry is experiencing a shift where profits are moving from coal to the electricity sector, with long-term reforms and the development of renewable energy expected to stabilize and grow the performance of traditional power companies while maintaining high dividend commitments [2]

股指期货：节前观望增加，或延续整固 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周市场窄幅震荡，主因驱动不明显。四大期指亦涨跌互现。板块方面看，汽 车、美容护理、基础化工涨幅居前，食品饮料、房地产、煤炭跌幅居前，热点主线散乱。在美方释出大幅 下调对中国关税消息后，后续关税走向反而不甚明朗，重新向上或继续下调均有空间，交易反而存在高度 不确定性。此外，在关税压力弱化之际，政策面是否会降低托底力度存在疑问。周五，盘中政治局会议消 息公布后，市场房地产板块、黑色系期货走势出现回落，可见一斑。 后期来看，短期国内政策靴子落地，在外部压力释缓的情况下，政策以落实前期会议精神为主，力度 偏温和。预计近一阶段仍以结构性政策为主，总量宽松(譬如降准降息等)仍需等待。在政策温和的情况 下，二季度开始贸易摩擦对实体经济的压力将逐步增加。因此政策温和，实体下修，宏观预期回落对指数 运行存在压力。此外从交易方面因素看，本周仅节前三个交易日，假期间美国还将发布非农数据，鉴于今 年清明小长假后行情出现巨大波动以及美方在关税领域的不确定性，避险观望情绪增加也可能带来走势的 ...

第一：第一季度规上工业企业利润增长0.8% 1—3月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额15093.6亿元，同比增长0.8%。 其中，1—3月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额5599.5亿元，同比下降1.4%；股份 制企业实现利润总额11101.5亿元，增长0.1%。 真是厉害了，不过对比GDP的增速还是稍微慢了点，需要更加努力。看来一季度的经济增长，主要是规 下企业创造的。 反正，说来说去都是他，我现在对他已经麻木了。但我内心一直很清楚，他是一个顶级的谈判高手，不 能掉以轻心。 第四：周一开盘怎么看？ 周一A股即将开盘，在持续利好、会议支持的情况下，A股能够走到什么程度？我很期待。 小企业，大力量。 近日，对面的金毛说，除非我们先做出实质性的让步，否则不会取消对我们的贸易摩擦。 战术上藐视他，战略上重视他。 第三：知名分析师，苹果将销美iPhone全搬到印度组装不切实际 针对媒体报道的，计划在明年年底强，实现"每年面向美国市场销售的6000多万部iPhone全都由印度供 应"这个说法。 知名分析师克雷格·莫菲特称，这种设想不切实际，因为IPhone的零部件仍然需要在中国制造，而且在 可预见的 ...

Group 1 - The report analyzes Trump's "tariff war" as a strategic maneuver that significantly impacts the global economic landscape, particularly affecting China and the U.S. economy [1][16] - Trump's psychological bottom line includes a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, protective tariffs on key industries like automobiles, and a focus on curbing China's rise while integrating North America [3][20] - The report highlights that Trump's unpredictable behavior serves as a strategy to maintain negotiation leverage, creating uncertainty for other economies [4][22] Group 2 - Different economies respond variably to the U.S. tariff war, categorized into resistance and concession, with China and Canada showing strong resistance while others like Mexico and Vietnam are forced to concede [6][26] - China is identified as the most resolute in its countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, demonstrating both capability and determination to retaliate effectively [27][28] - The report suggests that Canada has effectively countered U.S. tariffs due to its economic ties with the U.S., while Mexico's response has been more subdued due to its dependent economic status [35][36] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need for China to build alliances and expand its market presence to enhance its negotiating power against the U.S. [10][30] - It discusses the potential for China to fill the market void left by the U.S. as it adopts a more isolationist trade policy, positioning itself as a global consumer market leader [10][31] - The analysis concludes that the ongoing tariff situation is unsustainable for the U.S., with potential adjustments in tariff rates likely as negotiations progress [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent weeks, the performance of major global market assets generally aligns with the scenario assumption that the US will fall into "stagflation." The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are under pressure, while the A-share market shows resilience, and the gold price hits new highs. The significant tariff hikes by the US will impact the supply chain and have a negative impact on its economic growth. It is also highly likely to push up inflation in the short term. Whether tariff-induced inflation will turn into persistent stagflation is the key to determining the intensity and duration of trade frictions. If persistent stagflation occurs, the situation of a triple sell-off in US stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange will continue, increasing the difficulty for the Trump administration to persist in trade frictions [2][10]. - The consumption rigidity of US residents is crucial for the realization of the stagflation scenario. The retail data of US goods in the second quarter is particularly important. If US residents' consumption is rigid, the tariff hikes will mainly be passed on to commodity prices, and workers may demand higher wages, forming a new "wage - price spiral," increasing the probability of persistent stagflation. The nominal growth rate of US commodity retail sales in April is an important indicator. If it significantly exceeds the previous fluctuation range, it is more in line with the stagflation scenario assumption; otherwise, it is necessary to consider whether the current style of major asset classes has reached the extreme. The CPI data for April also has indicative value, but retail data reflects both price and quantity [2][11]. - Another factor determining whether the stagflation scenario can be realized is the policy choice of the Federal Reserve. Even if tariffs are regarded as consumption taxes, their inflationary effects may not be long - lasting. If the Trump administration forces the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy, the stagflation scenario is more likely to be realized. However, if the Trump administration only wants to blame the possible economic recession on the Federal Reserve, the situation may be different [2][14]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The performance of major global market assets in recent weeks is in line with the scenario assumption of US stagflation. The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are under pressure, while the A - share market shows resilience, and the gold price hits new highs. The tariff hikes by the US will impact the supply chain and push up inflation in the short term. Whether it turns into persistent stagflation is the key to trade frictions [10]. - The consumption rigidity of US residents is crucial for stagflation. The second - quarter US commodity retail data is important. In April, the US imposed so - called "reciprocal tariffs." If the nominal growth rate of retail sales significantly exceeds the previous range, it is in line with the stagflation scenario; otherwise, it is necessary to re - evaluate the asset style. The April CPI data also has indicative value [11]. - The policy choice of the Federal Reserve is another factor for stagflation. The inflationary effect of tariffs may not be long - lasting. Forcing the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy may lead to stagflation, but if it's just for blame - shifting, the situation may vary [14]. - In the week from April 21 to April 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.65% week - on - week and 1.64% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index decreased by 2.07% week - on - week and 9.83% year - on - year. On April 18, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 3.61%. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.23% and 0.74% week - on - week respectively. LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 2.72% and 2.27% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - gold ratio increased by 0.91% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.48% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 1.43% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 2.54% week - on - week; the rebar inventory decreased by 4.58% week - on - week; the rebar price index increased by 1.37% week - on - week. On April 18, the producer price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and 7.27% year - on - year. From April 1 to 24, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 203,000 square meters [2]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the relationship between the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year, etc. [22][25][31] Important US High - Frequency Indicators - Multiple charts show important US high - frequency indicators, including the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts in US federal funds futures, the relationship between US same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, and the relationship between the number of first - time unemployment claims in the US and the unemployment rate [89][96][99] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, including the seasonal trends of the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), the producer price index, the total index of the China Commodity Price Index, etc. [100][104][109] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Multiple charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [154][156]

周五，美国股市基本表现平淡，市场参与者继续等待更多关于关税战的信息。在美国总统特朗普表示，如果一年内对外进口关税达到50%，他将视为"彻底 胜利"后，市场情绪仍有些不安。 不过，市场整体情绪依然谨慎，因为经济前景恶化，关税也损害企业盈利。标普500指数仍低于4月2日"解放日"前的水平，且较其2月的创纪录收盘价下跌超 过10%。 随着本周初围绕美联储独立性以及持续的贸易摩擦的担忧消散，本周可以被视为积极的一周。美国总统特朗普和财长贝森特缓和了言论，显示他们正在考虑 尽快与中国达成协议。 双方的言论在恢复市场信心方面发挥了重要作用，这使得市场情绪出现了显著转变。风险资产在本周大部分时间里稳步上涨，而避险资产则受挫。 | 04/28 | 本周关注 | | --- | --- | | | 英国4月CBI零售销售差值 | | 周一 | 美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 | | | 加拿大举行联邦选举 | | | 德国5月Gfk消费者信心指数 | | | 欧元区4月工业、经济景气指数 | | | 美国2月FHFA房价指数月率 | | 周二 | 美国2月S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数年率 | | | 美国3月JOLT ...

Group 1 - Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers are increasingly entering Vietnam, with JinkoSolar establishing a factory there in June 2024 [2] - Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh issued directives on April 22 to address concerns over origin fraud, smuggling, and trade deception, emphasizing the need for preparation in negotiations with the U.S. [4] - The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade has requested stricter measures for issuing certificates of origin to prevent fraud, particularly in light of a surge in applications [4] Group 2 - The Trump administration views circumvention exports as a significant issue, suspecting Chinese companies of setting up bases in third countries to mislabel products before exporting to the U.S. [6] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. have increased, with a trade surplus exceeding $100 billion in 2024, raising suspicions of circumvention practices [6] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on April 21 that it would impose punitive tariffs of up to 3521% on imported solar panels from Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia [6] Group 3 - If Vietnam and South Korea cooperate with the U.S. on these issues, it may provoke backlash from China, which has condemned the U.S. for negotiating tariffs that limit trade with China [7] - Recent reports indicate that the Chinese government has warned South Korean companies against exporting products containing Chinese rare earths to U.S. defense-related firms, threatening potential sanctions [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing importance of potassium fertilizer supply in ensuring food security in China amid global trade tensions and supply chain disruptions [2][3][4] - In the first quarter of 2025, Yara International (亚钾国际) significantly increased its domestic supply efforts, achieving a sales volume of 528,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 77%, with domestic sales accounting for 81% of total sales [2] - The company contributed positively to domestic potassium fertilizer supply, with 1,741,400 tons sold in 2024, of which 1,346,600 tons were for domestic sales, representing approximately 77% of total sales [2] Group 2 - The global potassium fertilizer market is facing increased uncertainty due to trade tensions, particularly the U.S. imposing tariffs on Canadian potassium fertilizer, which is a major supplier [4][5] - Brazil's potassium chloride imports reached a historical high of 2.6 million tons in Q1 2025, a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by expectations of rising potassium fertilizer prices [5] - China's potassium fertilizer import dependency has risen to around 70% in 2024, with total imports reaching 12.6325 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.14% [6] Group 3 - Yara International's production capacity expansion to 5 million tons is crucial for ensuring stable potassium fertilizer supply for China, especially as domestic production faces challenges [6][7] - The company has optimized production processes and expanded capacity, with its potassium chloride imports from Laos increasing from 128,000 tons in 2020 to 2.072 million tons in 2024, making Laos the fourth largest source of potassium fertilizer for China [6] - The establishment of a dynamic potassium fertilizer reserve mechanism is suggested to enhance supply stability, reducing reliance on traditional import channels [7]