来源：中国能源网 受此影响，零售价下调预期不断拉宽。据金联创测算，截至18日第八个工作日变化率-3.00%参考油种均 价59.18美元/桶，国内汽柴油应下调160元/吨，本轮调价窗口12月22日24时。下周原油市场国际原油价 格或将呈现先扬后抑走势，零售价市场呈现"三连跌"的可能性较大。 数据来源：金联创 本国国内汽柴油价格整体呈现震荡下滑走势，市场成交气氛表现清淡。具体来看，周内国际原油价格震 荡走跌，使得零售价下调预期不断拉宽，消息面对国内油市形成一定的抑制作用，业者操作心态仍显谨 慎，汽柴油价格承压回落。需求方面，汽油市场缺乏利好支撑，虽元旦假期临近，但从终端企业的补仓 需求来看，业者并不急于采购，成交并无明显增量；柴油方面，由于目前需求面表现疲软，价格承压， 随着价格不断下跌，低库存业者择低有谨慎补库，但持续性不足。 下周来看，在供应过剩压力下，国际油价表现疲软，市场继续观望俄乌和谈进程及美国封锁委内瑞拉油 轮的影响，下周国际原油价格或先扬后抑运行。零售端大概率将迎来"三连跌"，消息面方向指引延续偏 空运行。供应方面来看，地炼开工率维持窄幅震荡，主营开工率或呈现小幅上行态势，汽柴产量预计小 涨，国内成 ...

Group 1: Report Abstract - Guinea's political regime is stabilizing, and the probability of policy - related risk events is decreasing. The partial resumption of Axis Mine indicates that Guinea still aims at resource export. Without considering cost - related mine production cuts, Guinea's bauxite shipment volume could reach about 180 million tons in 2026. Assuming no domestic alumina production cuts, the consumption of imported ore in 2026 will be 215 million tons. With a slight increase in ore supply from other countries, the bauxite supply is expected to remain in surplus [2]. - When the bauxite price drops to $65 per ton, alumina enterprises won't cut production due to losses. Even if all loss - making mines in Guinea shut down, the bauxite inventory will still be at a safe level. When the price drops to $60 per ton, 67 million tons of loss - making capacity in Guinea will stop production, and the alumina supply will still be in surplus by 2 million tons throughout the year. If alumina production is cut to achieve supply - demand balance, the bauxite price in Guinea will drop to $55 per ton or lower, and the corresponding alumina futures price will be 2250 - 2300 yuan per ton [2][3]. Group 2: Guinea Event Review - Axis Mine Resumption as a Policy - Oriented Signal - In May 2025, Guinea revoked the mining licenses of many companies, and Axis Mine was forced to stop work. In July, the mining license was to be granted to Shunda Mining, but in August, the agreement was annulled. In August, a new mining company N.M.C was established to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. In September, the resumption expectation of Nimba Mining SA was strengthening, and it might resume mining in October. In September, a mining enterprise union in Guinea submitted a strike notice. In November, Nimba Mining started bauxite barge shipment. In December, GIC was allowed to resume operations, and Nimba Mining planned to resume mining and set an export target [8][9]. Group 3: Guinea Bauxite Shipment Volume Projection - In 2024, Guinea's total bauxite shipment volume was 145.86 million tons, and China imported 110.2 million tons from Guinea, accounting for 75%. In 2025, Guinea's shipment volume is expected to reach 160 million tons, with China's import accounting for 90%. In 2026, without considering cost - related production cuts, Guinea's shipment volume could reach about 180 million tons, with the supply increment mainly from Axis and the former GAC mines [10][11]. Group 4: China's Bauxite Consumption Analysis - From January to October 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 171 million tons, of which 127 million tons were from Guinea, accounting for 74.2%. The annual import volume is expected to be 200 million tons, with 145 million tons from Guinea and 55 million tons from other countries. In 2025, the consumption of imported bauxite in China is expected to be 180 million tons, with a supply surplus of 11.7%. In 2026, China's imports are expected to reach about 230 million tons. If domestic alumina production doesn't decline, the consumption of imported ore in 2026 will be 215 million tons, and the bauxite supply will still be in surplus [13][14]. - According to cost calculations, when the CIF price drops to $65 per ton, 30 million tons of capacity in Guinea will face losses; when it drops to $60 per ton, the loss - making capacity will expand to 67 million tons [14]. Group 5: Summary - Guinea's political regime is stabilizing, and the probability of policy - related risk events is decreasing. The partial resumption of Axis Mine indicates the country's focus on resource export. The reality and expectation of alumina supply surplus remain unchanged. When the bauxite supply is in surplus, the alumina price will fall, squeezing the smelter's profit and then pushing down the bauxite price until bauxite production is cut. After bauxite production cuts, the alumina price still needs to fall to squeeze the production space of alumina enterprises until alumina production is cut to reverse the surplus situation [30].

原油 2025/12/18 原油 能源化工组 能源化工日报 2025-12-18 利多兑现后盘面再度陷入短期盘整，港口倒流叠加转口船发货带来港口库存进一步去化。后续 来看，进口到港仍将处于高位，而港口烯烃装置存检修预期，后续港口压力仍在，目前港口绝 对库存水平依旧较高。供应端企业利润回落到中性位置，开工维持同期高位，整体供应高位。 随着利多的兑现，盘面仍将回归现实逻辑，甲醇基本面仍有一定压力，预计低位整理为主，策 略方面单边建议观望。 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 柴油库存去库 0.39 百万桶至 3.19 百万桶，环比去库 10.91%；燃料油库存累库 1.55 百万桶至 13.79 百万桶，环比累库 12.62%；总成品油累库 0.89 百万桶至 23.93 百万桶，环比累库 3.88%。 燃料油收涨 20.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.84%，报 2415.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 36.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.22%，报 2905.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are impacting oil prices, with President Trump announcing a complete blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, demanding the return of oil assets to the U.S. This has led to a rebound in oil prices, particularly Brent crude, which has surpassed $60 per barrel [5][20][11]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices rebounded over $1 in early trading following Trump's announcement, with Brent crude recovering to above $60 per barrel [5][20]. - The U.S. sanctions and geopolitical tensions are injecting a premium into oil prices, despite the underlying supply-demand dynamics suggesting a bearish outlook in the longer term [6][21]. - The EIA reported a smaller-than-expected inventory draw of 1.27 million barrels, which contributed to a slight decline in oil prices after the initial spike [6][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump has characterized the Venezuelan government as a "foreign terrorist organization" and has intensified pressure on President Maduro [11][26]. - The U.S. is preparing to impose new sanctions on Russia if President Putin does not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine, which could further influence global oil markets [10][23]. - The U.S. Navy has positioned its forces strategically in the region, indicating potential military action against Venezuela [12][27]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Venezuela's oil production is approximately 1 million barrels per day, with exports around 700,000 barrels per day, indicating limited immediate impact on global supply despite the geopolitical tensions [5][20]. - The OPEC+ group has been gradually increasing production, with expectations that total OPEC+ supply will exceed 43.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year [8][24]. - The ongoing supply differentiation in the global oil market is evident, with countries like Iran and Venezuela increasing production despite sanctions, which could reshape the supply landscape [8][25].

Group 1 - Gold prices fluctuated around $4,302.36 per ounce, closing down 0.07% after briefly surpassing $4,330 [1] - Silver prices fell to $63.72 per ounce, down 0.54% after a significant drop earlier in the day [1] - Oil prices continued to decline due to concerns over supply surplus and improved prospects for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, with WTI crude oil dropping to $55.03 per barrel, down 2.59% [1] - Brent crude oil also fell by 2.61%, closing at $59.05 per barrel, marking WTI crude's first drop below $55 per barrel in four years [1] Group 2 - The U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate reached 4.6%, the highest in four years [1] - The ADP weekly employment report indicated an average of 16,250 new jobs added per week in the private sector over the four weeks ending November 29 [1] - Speculation around the Federal Reserve chair position increased, with the probability of Waller being a candidate rising to 15% following media reports [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned that both Waller and Hassett are capable of leading the Federal Reserve, with an announcement expected in early January [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant declines in oil prices have led to WTI crude oil futures dropping below $55 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures falling below $60 per barrel, marking a critical breakdown in the market [3][13]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 16, WTI crude oil futures closed at $55.27 per barrel, down $1.55, a decrease of 2.73% [3][13]. - Brent crude oil futures for February settled at $58.92 per barrel, down $1.64, a decline of 2.71% [3][13]. - Domestic SC crude oil futures fell to approximately 422.5 yuan per barrel, reaching a yearly low [3][13]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main factors: macroeconomic weakening, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical developments [7][17]. - Expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19 have strengthened the yen, impacting dollar liquidity and leading to a pullback in dollar-denominated assets [7][17]. - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased, particularly with new developments in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which have reduced the urgency of oil price support from geopolitical tensions [7][17]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a significant oversupply, with the EIA reporting an upward revision of crude oil oversupply to over 4 million barrels per day [9][18]. - High waterborne crude oil inventories are transitioning to onshore storage, while demand from the Middle East is weakening, further pressuring domestic crude oil valuations [7][18]. - The current market structure for SC crude oil has flipped to Contango, indicating a clear market signal of oversupply [7][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The consensus among analysts suggests a bearish outlook for oil prices in the first half of 2026, with expectations of further downward pressure [9][19]. - Major commodity trading firms warn of a "super oversupply" in the oil market, with predictions from institutions like Goldman Sachs indicating average oil prices below $60 per barrel next year [9][19]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, there are potential opportunities driven by increased electricity demand from AI developments, which could introduce new variables into the energy market [9][19].

Market Overview - The US stock market continues to experience volatility, with a downward trend observed on December 16, despite better-than-expected employment data for November [1][2] - The November non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, contrasting with a decrease of 105,000 in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [2] - Technology stocks generally declined during this period [2] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures fell below $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2021, with intraday losses exceeding 3% [4] - The oil market is facing its worst performance in nearly seven years, with WTI crude down approximately 22% year-to-date, marking the worst annual performance since 2018 [6] - Brent crude has also seen a decline of nearly 20%, the worst since 2020 [6] - Key factors contributing to the pressure on oil prices include OPEC+ members increasing production after years of cuts and the potential for reduced geopolitical risks, particularly regarding a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [2] Core Viewpoints - The core logic driving crude oil prices remains the pressure of oversupply, and geopolitical events have a limited impact on price increases [3]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand rhythm mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will be an upward pressure in the medium term; the low-sulfur fuel oil market will continue to be weak [4]. - The demand for asphalt is differentiated between the north and south, and the price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals and falling oil prices [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - US crude oil drilling and fracturing activities are at a low level at the end of the year. A tanker carrying about 1.85 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude was seized, but the geopolitical factors have limited impact on boosting oil prices due to the oversupply situation [3]. - Geopolitical developments related to Russia are making the crude oil supply-demand structure more relaxed, and the core of price fluctuations is the pressure of oversupply [3]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil High-sulfur Fuel Oil - On the supply side, the geopolitical impact continues. The shipments from the Middle East have decreased slightly in the past two weeks, with Saudi exports rising and Iranian and UAE exports falling, possibly due to sanctions and logistics disruptions. US seizure of an Iranian tanker is expected to continue affecting Middle East supply. Russian shipments have also significantly declined since early December [4]. - Singapore and Middle East inventories are rising, and floating storage due to logistics blockages has accumulated, resulting in sufficient supply. On the demand side, low crack spreads and improved coking profits boost feedstock demand, and the pre-Spring Festival shipping peak may support bunker demand. Short-term crack spreads may be supported by supply-demand mismatches, but high inventories will be a pressure in the medium term [4]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market remains in a loose pattern. Domestic production is expected to decline due to limited low-sulfur quotas in December, which may increase import demand. However, overseas supply pressure still exists, and future supply is expected to gradually increase, so it will continue to be weak [4]. Asphalt - Demand is differentiated between the north and south. In the north, winter storage is the main demand, but buyers are cautious due to high prices. In the south, supported by real demand, refineries have reduced production, and inventory has decreased. Recently, some major refineries in East and South China have offered significant shipping discounts, and the de-stocking of social and refinery inventories has slowed down. The price is under pressure due to falling oil prices and weak fundamentals [5]

邓正红软实力表示，市场对委内瑞拉石油供应中断存在担忧，但美国股市走软加剧了市场对供应过剩的看空情绪，石油软实力在在震荡运行中略显收缩，12 月12日（周五）国际油价小幅走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌0.16元至57.44美元，跌幅0.28%，本周该期 货累计下跌4.39%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶跌0.16美元至61.12美元，跌幅0.26%，本周该期货累计下跌4.12%。 供需平衡的规则重构。市场对2026年供应过剩的共识是规则重构的体现。邓正红认为"规则系统驱动物质演化"，当前市场通过期货持仓（看空押注升至七周 高位）和价格预期（推至10月以来区间下沿）完成了对供需规则的重新定价。这种规则重构比实际供需变化更能影响短期价格走势。 市场趋势预测与投资建议。短期震荡：地缘政治风险（规则场）与供需基本面（物质场）的博弈将导致油价持续震荡。任何反弹预计都将短暂。中长期下行 压力：全球石油市场进入累库周期，国际油价运行中枢将明显下移，预计布伦特原油全年均价在每桶65~75美元区间。投资策略：邓正红软实力哲学建议关 注"规则-物质"的协同演化。投资者应同时跟 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a significant differentiation in maintenance schedules due to profit declines and overcapacity, breaking the traditional maintenance rhythm typically seen in the second and third quarters [1][2] - The maintenance ratio this year is notably higher than in previous years, directly linked to supply surplus caused by rapid capacity growth in certain products [1][2] Group 1: Maintenance Trends - The traditional maintenance period for the petrochemical industry is usually concentrated in the second and third quarters, with the fourth quarter expected to see increased operational loads; however, this year, profit declines have disrupted this pattern [1] - PX is one of the few products increasing operational loads despite the overall trend, with its operational load at a near five-year high due to improved fundamentals and favorable production profits [1] - In contrast, PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have seen operational loads decrease due to profit pressures, with PTA's operational load dropping to a lower-than-average level for the past five years [1][2] Group 2: Ethylene Glycol and Other Products - Ethylene glycol's maintenance logic is complex, with operational loads dropping from high levels due to maintenance of ethylene-based facilities, followed by a new wave of maintenance due to profit declines in gas-based facilities [2] - Seasonal maintenance patterns are observed across various chemical products, with significant maintenance occurring in methanol, PP, and PE, while PTA has seen increased maintenance and unplanned outages [2] Group 3: Profitability and Market Dynamics - Despite a decrease in PTA's operational load since November, its processing margin remains in the loss zone, indicating an imbalance in profit distribution within the industry [3] - New capacity in ethylene glycol has led to record low prices, and while recent production cuts have marginally improved the fundamentals, inventory pressures persist [3] - The overall decline in chemical product prices has led to compressed production profits, with potential for further maintenance if prices continue to drop excessively [3][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for chemical products suggests limited price rebound potential unless there is an unexpected contraction in supply or a change in inventory accumulation patterns [4] - The continuation of unplanned maintenance will depend on production profits and fundamental market conditions, which will dictate the year-end market trends for chemicals [4]