1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session is 1159 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1210 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 51 yuan, with a 41.67% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants is gradually resuming, and the supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.01 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.58 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high. The weekly industry operating rate is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [2][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale production capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 100 tons [20]. 3.3.2 Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.04%. The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.57 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [23][26][29]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [32]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of the soda ash industry has changed. In 2024E, the effective production capacity is 3930 tons, the production is 3650 tons, the operating rate is 78.20%, the apparent supply is 3536 tons, the total demand is 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference is 157 tons [33].

发出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹26周价格1635/2730；HPL 6月下半月船期报价1835/2935，7月上半月船期 报价2635/4435。 FICC日报 | 2025-06-13 马士基6月最后一周价格开出，关注本周是否有7月份涨价函 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价1940/3240；ONE上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 2571/2937；HMM6月下半月上海-鹿特丹价格1717/3004。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA 6月上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 1861/3297，7月份船期报价2385/4345；EMC6月下半月船期报价2555/3610；OOCL 6月下半月报价1850/3100. 部分船司宣布6月份下半月涨价函，MSC 6月份下半月涨价函价格2340/3900（前期6月上半月涨价函价格 1920/3200）。 地缘端：美国总统特朗普：希望避免与伊朗发生冲突。伊朗将不得不进行更艰难的谈判。据AXIOS网站：美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping industry is experiencing price fluctuations and supply - demand imbalances. In June, the US - bound freight rates soared due to supply - demand mismatch, but the US - West rates may have peaked. The European - bound freight rates in June also showed an upward trend, with an expected price increase in July and August. The 06 contract of the container shipping index is supported by the expected delivery settlement price, and there is still a price increase expectation for the European - bound freight in August [3][5]. - The container shipping market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal patterns. Geopolitical tensions may impact shipping routes, and the supply - demand relationship is adjusted by carriers' capacity deployment. The traditional peak season in August may lead to price increases [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes for routes from Shanghai to Rotterdam, GDNASK, etc. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 25 - week price is 1700/2840, and HPL's 7 - month first - half shipping schedule quote is 2635/4435 [1]. - **Price Increases**: Some shipping companies announced price increases in the second half of June. MSC's second - half - of - June price increase letter shows a price of 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first half of June [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Impact - **Geopolitical Factor**: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels, which may lead to potential maritime and air blockades [3]. - **Supply - Demand Mismatch in US Routes**: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the trans - Pacific east - bound routes. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, the demand on Sino - US routes increased rapidly, causing a sharp rise in freight rates. Currently, carriers are restoring capacity, and the capacity on Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, the US - West freight rates may have peaked [3]. 3.3 European Route Capacity - The capacity pressure on European routes decreased in June. The average weekly capacity of Shanghai - European routes in the remaining three weeks of June is about 280,600 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in July is 279,600 TEU. There are also some blank sailings in June and July [4]. 3.4 Contract and Price Expectations - The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase letter. As the delivery deadline approaches, the 06 contract will gradually return to "real - world" trading. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is about 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is the traditional peak season, and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August at the beginning of June and July. The 2025 European - bound freight rate peak time is unclear, and the 8 - month contract has a fierce game between expectation and reality. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [5][6]. 3.5 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU, and 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [7]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [7].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-11 8月份是传统旺季且7月份目前统计运力相对较少，仍有涨价预期，关注2025年欧线运价见顶时间且后期运价下行 斜率。目前预计6月初以及7月初船司会继续对7月份以及8月份运价宣涨，CMA上海-鹿特丹 7月份船期报价 2385/4345（较6月下半月上涨1000美元/FEU左右），预计下周主要船司7月份涨价函将公布。参考历史，2017年之 后大部分年份上海-欧基港运价WEEK34周左右大致见顶（2025年第34周为8/11-8/17日所在周），2024年上海-欧基 美西运价有见顶迹象，关注马士基6月最后一周报价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹25周价格1695/2830；HPL 6月份上半月船期报价1635/2535，6月下半月船 期报价1835/2935，7月上半月船期报价2635/4435。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月上半月船期报价1580/2640，6月下半月船期报价1940/3240；ONE上 海-鹿特丹 6月份上半月船期报价2381/2437，6月下半月船期报价2571/293 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch, but there are signs that the rates to the US West have peaked. The freight rates on the European route are expected to rise in July and August, and the peak time of the European route freight rates in 2025 is unclear. The 08 contract is in a fierce game between expectation and reality, and it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently. The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [3][6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **European Route**: In the second half of June, the prices of most shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. For example, HPL's shipping schedule quotes from June to July increased gradually; some shipping companies such as MSC announced price increase letters for the second half of June. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU. The expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract. There is still an expectation of price increase in July and August, and CMA's July shipping schedule quote on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by about 1000 US dollars/FEU compared with the second half of June [1][2][5][6]. - **US Route**: The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch. The demand on the China - US route increased rapidly with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, there are signs that the freight rates to the US West have peaked, such as the decrease in the prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Los Angeles and Shanghai - New York routes in the second week of the second half of June [3]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **European Route**: The shipping capacity pressure on the European route decreased in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June on the Shanghai - European route was about 280,600 TEU, and there were 6 blank sailings in total. The average weekly shipping capacity in July is 279,600 TEU, and there are 5 blank sailings in total [4]. - **US Route**: The shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June was 361,000 TEU, the average monthly weekly shipping capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the average weekly shipping capacity in July is 326,400 TEU [3]. 3. Geopolitical Situation The date of the next round of Iran - US talks has not been determined. Iran will respond to the US proposal in the next few days, and the Omani Foreign Minister will then determine the time and place of the next round of negotiations [2]. 4. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of June 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 87,143 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 67,155 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract closed at 1376.50, EC2604 contract at 1225.50, EC2506 contract at 1948.60, EC2508 contract at 2065.60, EC2510 contract at 1343.70, and EC2512 contract at 1520.70 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West) price was 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). On June 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1622.81 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2185.08 points [3][7]. 5. Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [8].

>>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 出口管制催化，供需或加速错配 ， 具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见 完 整版 报告。 每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 外盘稀土涨价为锚，内盘价格或随着出口许可下发形成海外"反向收储"通道。 由于海外的中重稀土氧化 物及磁材主要依赖中国供给，我们认为 2024 年以来稀土价格处于较低位置，海外终端需求方出于经济利 益考量，保持较低库存运行，从中国出口量也可以看出海外并未大规模补库。但中国此次实行中重稀土管 制后，海外中重稀土价格大幅上涨，将激发海外刚性需意求的补库愿。据 SMM ，中国从 5 月中旬开始 已经向部分稀土磁材生产商发动出口许可，随着合规化稀土磁材出口恢复正常，海外涨价有望向国内传 导。 复盘来看，中国实施出口管制的金属品种，多数有明显涨价。 2023 年以来中国先后对锗、镓、锑、钨、 碲、铋、钼、铟、中重稀土等金属品种实施出口管制，这些小金属品种多数在国防军工、电子信息、航 空、精密制造等领域扮演重要地位，从价格表现来看，中国实施出口管制后，多数品种实现了较大幅度的 价格上涨。 中国实施中重稀土出口管制后，海外中重稀 ...

去年年底以来，⬀策层及官媒开始营造反内ⷑ的社会氛围。而⯆造业信贷的放 缓、部⮇过Ⱁ行业投资回落以及工业企业⮵润的温和修复似乎显示了再平衡已⮤ 见成效。然而，一家头部新能源车企于周一大幅降价促销，引发了市场ⲁ荡，同 时也重新引发了市场对于中国经济和再通胀⯥景的辩论。 对工业企业⮵润的进一步研究表明，根深蒂固的供需错配仍在⯆约中国的再通 胀。考虑⮽通过债ⱷ推ⲁ的强⯌激政策或已成为过去式，我们认为中国目⯥的再 平衡和再通胀需要伴随一些结构性的改革，ⴎ括社会福⮵的改善、债ⱷ重组、税 ⯆改革以及营造有⮵于增长的监管环境。上述改革皆有难度，因此我们认为实施 的步伐将是循序渐进的，再通胀短期内仍具挑战，而中长期内也无坦途。 #1. 工业企业利润修复主要由于销量以及降本增效，然而定价能力仍然羸弱。 我们可以将工业企业利润增速拆分为三项：售价（使用PPI来观察）、⮵润率（统 计局数据）以及销量（ Exhibit 1 ）。拆⮇后我们可以总结三点： 1.利润率受基数影响，夸大了整体利润增速的改善：去年三季度之后，工业企业⮵ 润同比增速现了明显的反弹，从去年9月份-27%的低谷一路上ⶍ⮽今年4月份 的3.3%。然而，去年三季度⮵润增 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent price increase in the US shipping market is likely a short-term opportunity, while long-term trends indicate a sustained demand-supply imbalance in Asian container trade due to low supply pressure for vessels under 4000 TEU over the next three years [1] - The report highlights that the US has already experienced a minor preemptive stockpiling before the tariff adjustments, leading to a concentrated demand for shipments following the tariff reduction on May 12 [1][2] - The current surge in shipping rates is attributed to a temporary mismatch in supply and demand, with the logistics system operating smoothly and port efficiency having improved significantly [2] Group 2 - Increased uncertainty and geopolitical risks are leading to a more fragmented trade landscape, with a noticeable shift in trade relationships post the 2018 US-China trade tensions [3] - China's outbound direct investment reached $177.29 billion in 2023, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase, with a significant portion directed towards Asian markets [3] - The investment strategy is shifting from acquisitions to greenfield investments, which may enhance trade in intermediate goods between China and these regions [3]

尽管新能源汽车动力电池"退役潮"尚未到来，但废旧动力电池综合利用产业已挤满大量提前布局的企业。 当前行业面临双重压力：一是退役量预判与实际需求存在偏差，二是非正规回收渠道的冲击，导致市场呈现典 型的卖方特征和价格倒挂现象，整体盈利能力承压。 受访业内专家表示，预期在4—5年后到来的动力电池"退役潮"有助于缓解供需错配压力，但行业发展仍需加强 引导。当前，国家正在加紧修订《新能源汽车动力蓄电池回收利用管理暂行办法》，并将其升格为部门规章， 通过源头管控确保退役电池进入正规途径，并明确各行政单位、执法机构在推动行业规范发展中的分工，破 解"九龙治水而水不治"的难题，推动行业形成良币驱逐劣币的发展格局。 供需错配 行业寒冬延续 企查查数据显示，我国现存的17.2万家电池回收相关企业中，超六成企业于3年内成立。截至5月1日，2025年 我国新注册电池回收相关企业15202家。 然而，与产业扩张"热情"形成鲜明对比的是企业生产线的"冷清"。 《中国锂离子电池回收拆解与梯次利用行 业发展白皮书（2025年）》显示，截至2024年底，中国白名单锂离子电池的梯次利用和回收拆解产能为423.3 万吨/年，2024年中国废旧锂离 ...

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal market in China has experienced significant price volatility since 2025, primarily due to a mismatch in supply and demand, with factors such as increased imports and seasonal demand influencing market dynamics [1][4]. Price Volatility - Soybean meal spot prices have fluctuated dramatically, rising from 2890.9 yuan/ton at the end of last year to a peak of 3716.8 yuan/ton on February 28, then dropping to a low of 3153.2 yuan/ton by April 10, before rising again to 3721.4 yuan/ton at the end of April and falling to 3026.6 yuan/ton by May 20 [1]. - The main soybean meal futures contract also saw two significant upward trends, with a cumulative increase of 4.69% year-to-date, closing at 2966 yuan/ton on May 27 [1]. Inventory Trends - Inventory data shows significant fluctuations, with a "decrease-increase-decrease" trend observed in soybean meal stocks, breaking seasonal patterns [2]. - As of April 25, soybean meal inventory reached a low of 5.9 thousand tons, compared to 46.14 thousand tons in the same period last year and a five-year average of 39.48 thousand tons [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has faced challenges due to slow raw material procurement, holiday shutdowns, and customs delays, leading to unstable operating rates for production facilities [3]. - Average operating rates for the first and second quarters were 46.8% and 47.27%, respectively, compared to 44.41% and 55.49% in the previous year [3]. Improvement in Supply Situation - By May, the speed of imported soybean clearance improved, alleviating shortages at oil mills and leading to a steady increase in processing volumes [4]. - As of May 23, soybean meal inventory at production enterprises was 18 thousand tons, indicating a low inventory turning point after three weeks of slight increases [4]. Market Outlook - The soybean meal market is at a critical juncture, with expectations of a potential turning point in prices due to improved supply conditions and increased processing rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that while the market currently faces downward pressure from increased supply, factors such as rising demand in the feed sector and cost support from international markets may lead to a recovery in prices [5].