Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector has gained significant attention in the market, particularly with the recent surge in prices of antimony and other minor metals, leading to a notable increase in related stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Antimony Price Surge - Antimony has emerged as a star in the small metals market, with stocks like Huayu Mining and Hunan Gold seeing substantial gains, including a 47.8% increase in Huayu Mining's stock over a week [4][5]. - The price of antimony has reached a 12-year high, with domestic prices rising from 142,000 CNY/ton in early February to 162,500 CNY/ton by mid-March, marking a 12.6% increase in a single month [6][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price increase is driven by a mismatch between supply and demand, with antimony being crucial in various industries, including new energy and military applications [8][9]. - Global antimony production has been declining since 2011, with output expected to drop from 178,000 tons/year to 100,000 tons/year by 2024, exacerbating supply constraints [8][9]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain and Policy Impact - The supply chain for antimony is affected by both domestic policies and international factors, with the U.S. emphasizing supply chain security for critical metals, including antimony [11]. - Recent export controls by the Chinese government on antimony and related materials have led to a significant widening of the price gap between domestic and international markets, with domestic imports plummeting [12]. Group 4: Market Outlook for Minor Metals - The market for minor metals like antimony, indium, and gallium is currently in an upward cycle, supported by ongoing demand from sectors such as new energy and semiconductors [14][15]. - However, the sustainability of this upward trend will depend on the balance of supply and demand, policy support, and market sentiment [14][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][22]. Core Insights - The prices of pure MDI and TDI have shifted from rising to falling due to demand not meeting expectations. MDI is currently facing a 41.5% tariff due to an anti-dumping investigation in the US, but the impact on the company's performance is expected to be limited as they adjust channels through Hungarian production [3][13]. - Potash prices continue to rise, with domestic upstream operating rates low and the demand peak approaching. The international market is experiencing supply tightness due to Ural Potash Company announcing the closure of three mines for maintenance, leading to a reduction of at least 300,000 tons in Q2 production [3][12]. Industry Performance Statistics and Analysis - From February 17 to February 21, 2025, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 1.19%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.97%. The best-performing sectors included membrane materials, other rubber products, and carbon black, while the worst-performing sectors were phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, and soda ash [9]. - The price of titanium dioxide has risen to 14,546 RMB/ton, up 0.43% week-on-week, driven by cost pressures and the upcoming demand peak. Dragon Group announced a price increase of 300 RMB/ton for domestic customers and 50 USD/ton for international customers [11]. - The price of potassium chloride is currently 2,954 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.61% and a monthly increase of 14.58%. Domestic supply is expected to decrease by about 15% due to winter maintenance, while international supply is constrained by geopolitical factors [12]. Price Trends of Key Products - TDI price has decreased by 12.82% to 12,925 RMB/ton due to low downstream demand and limited orders, leading to a surplus of market supply [12][16]. - Pure MDI price has dropped by 2.05% to 19,100 RMB/ton, with market activity subdued as downstream demand remains weak [13][16]. - The overall chemical product prices have shown active performance since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to cost pressures and supply-demand mismatches [13]. Recommended Companies - The report highlights several companies with strong long-term prospects, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Longbai Group, Satellite Petrochemical, Juhua Co., Huat Gas, Yake Technology, and Jiangnan Chemical [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][22]. Core Insights - The prices of pure MDI and TDI have shifted from rising to falling due to demand not meeting expectations. MDI is currently facing a 41.5% tariff due to an anti-dumping investigation in the US, but the impact on the company's performance is expected to be limited as they adjust channels through Hungarian production [3][13]. - Potash prices continue to rise, with domestic upstream operating rates low and downstream demand expected to increase. The international market is experiencing supply tightness due to the closure of three mines by Uralkali, which will reduce output by at least 300,000 tons in the second quarter [3][12]. - The chemical industry is currently at a low point in terms of market conditions, but leading companies with absolute cost advantages are expected to perform well in the long term. The semiconductor industry is anticipated to recover gradually in 2024, benefiting from national policy support and significant room for import substitution [3][14]. Industry Performance Statistics and Analysis - From February 17 to February 21, 2025, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index rose by 1.19%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.97%. The best-performing sectors included membrane materials, other rubber products, and carbon black, while the worst-performing sectors were phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, and soda ash [3][9]. - The price of TDI decreased by 12.82% to 12,925 RMB/ton due to low downstream demand and limited order quantities, leading to a significant drop in market prices [3][12]. - The price of pure MDI fell by 2.05% to 19,100 RMB/ton, with market activity subdued as downstream demand failed to meet expectations [3][13]. Data Tracking and Analysis - The price of potassium chloride is currently 2,954 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.61% and a monthly increase of 14.58% [3][12]. - The price of titanium dioxide has risen to 14,546 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.43% driven by cost pressures and the upcoming demand peak [3][11]. - The report highlights that the overall performance of chemical products has been active since the beginning of 2025, primarily due to cost-driven factors and supply-demand mismatches [3][13].