Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on November 28, with government bond futures exhibiting mixed performance, and the short-term funding rates mostly rising, indicating a cautious outlook for bond yields in the near term [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed with mixed results: the 30-year contract rose by 0.05% to 114.49, the 10-year contract increased by 0.03% to 107.94, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02% respectively [2]. - The interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 30-year special government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 2.1865%, and the 10-year government bond yield down by 1.25 basis points to 1.8315% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 3,013 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down by 1.3 basis points to 1.301%, while the 7-day and 14-day rates rose by 1.2 and 2.1 basis points respectively [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that city commercial banks are actively cooperating with policies to manage hidden debts through loans and bond swaps, which may impact their asset-liability structure and profitability [6]. - Huachuang Securities highlighted a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, with a lack of policy catalysts for yield declines, and noted that trading funds have not seen significant positive factors leading to a year-end rush [6]. Economic Context - Shenwan Futures reported that deposits continue to flow into higher-yielding non-bank sectors, while industrial production and consumption growth rates are slowing, primarily due to real estate sector challenges [7]. - The anticipation of policy announcements around year-end is expected to enhance market risk appetite, although recent regulations on fund sales may disrupt the bond market [7].

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.995, UK 4.449, France 3.409, Germany 2.679, Italy 3.401, Spain 3.164, Switzerland 0.139, Greece 3.286, Japan 1.795, China 1.844, Australia 4.495, New Zealand 4.228 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.477, UK 3.747, Germany 2.025, Japan 0.968, Italy 2.181, China (1Y yield) 1.410, Australia 3.774 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.354, South Africa zar 17.156, Korean won 1462.650, Thai baht 32.237, Malaysian ringgit 4.132 [3] - The latest values of on - shore RMB 7.080, off - shore RMB 7.074, RMB central parity rate 7.078, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.939 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: Mexican index 62694.730, UK index 9693.930, France CAC 8099.470, Germany DAX 23767.960, Spanish index 16361.800, Japanese Nikkei 50167.100, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 25945.930, Shanghai Composite Index 3875.260, Taiwan index 27554.530, South Korean index 3986.910, Indian index 8545.865, Thai index 1252.710, Malaysian index 1617.460, Australian index 8912.027, emerging - economy index 1370.390 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3556.200, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.314, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.370, US high - yield credit - bond index 2892.130, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 408.530, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1799.674 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares 3875.26, CSI 300 4515.40, SSE 50 2972.27, ChiNext 3031.30, CSI 500 6951.28 [4] - Percentage changes: A - shares 0.29%, CSI 300 - 0.05%, SSE 50 0.02%, ChiNext - 0.44%, CSI 500 - 0.20% [4] Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 13.95, SSE 50 11.88, CSI 500 31.67, S&P 500 27.08, Germany DAX 18.43 [4] -环比 changes: CSI 300 0.03, SSE 50 0.03, CSI 500 - 0.07, S&P 500 0.00, Germany DAX 0.04 [4] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 - 0.30, Germany DAX 2.75 [4] -环比 changes: S&P 500 0.00, Germany DAX - 0.02 [4] Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares - 623.07, main board - 470.76, ChiNext - 114.30, CSI 300 - 77.38 [4] - 5 - day average values: A - shares - 435.46, main board - 401.54, ChiNext - 25.24, CSI 300 - 52.11 [4] Transaction Data of Other Markets Transaction Amount - Latest values: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 17097.94, CSI 300 4177.90, SSE 50 1051.06, small - and medium - sized board 3275.75, ChiNext 4947.35 [5] -环比 changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets - 735.52, CSI 300 - 95.71, SSE 50 78.48, small - and medium - sized board - 297.22, ChiNext - 288.64 [5] Main Contract Basis - Basis: IF - 22.80, IH - 9.87, IC - 55.08 [5] - Magnitude: IF - 0.50%, IH - 0.33%, IC - 0.79% [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Closing prices: T2303 108.12, TF2303 105.68, T2306 107.90, TF2306 105.77 [5] - Percentage changes: T2303 0.05%, TF2303 0.03%, T2306 0.04%, TF2306 0.03% [5] Fund Rates - Rates: R001 1.3706%, R007 1.5185%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% [5] - Daily changes: R001 - 15.00 BP, R007 0.00 BP, SHIBOR - 3M 0.00 BP [5]

债券市场已从单边行情进入低利率、低波动、低利差的震荡周期，进入"交易为王时代"，机会往往源于 市场超调，而非泡沫化的高位。 收益需要从三类差异中挖掘：一是信息差异，通过高频复盘捕捉宏观数据、公开市场操作等边际变化； 二是行动差异，在市场情绪化波动时逆向布局，比如国债期货因对冲资金进出暴涨暴跌时，通过价量分 析识别"情绪溢价"，遵循"大波动建大仓位、小波动小仓位"的原则；三是品种策略差异，利率债捕捉波 段收益、信用债挖掘信用利差及品种轮动阿尔法、布局双低转债等，避免单一品类资产的收益瓶颈。 操作策略上，11月资产选择高赔率资产做修复，趋势行情仍未到来，因此11月选择的资产需保留一定流 动性的考量。 展望2026年债市，预计股债市场都会偏向震荡，以结构性机会和阶段性行情为主，强预期弱现实可能性 较大。目前市场对价格回升的预期较强，价格预期里的预期差以及节奏上是否存在阶段性阻力，都会影 响债券市场的投资方向和节奏。预计在流动性宽松的环境下，短债产品预计依然能够对居民存款起到替 代作用。另外，从2025年3季度来看，含权固收+产品依然有增量资金，预计这也将成为2026年产品收 益产生分化的地方。 摩根史丹利（0025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that financial stability risks in the region are "rising," with high asset valuations susceptible to significant adjustments, and fiscal challenges in some countries potentially testing investor confidence [1] Group 1: Financial Stability Risks - The ECB's latest financial stability assessment report highlights that market sentiment could shift suddenly due to deteriorating growth prospects or disappointing news regarding artificial intelligence (AI) applications [1] - Concerns over high public debt in some developed economies may exert pressure on the global bond market, potentially leading to shifts in international capital flows and impacting currencies [1]

1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 11 月 25 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3021 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 3021 亿元，中标量 3021 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 4075 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净回笼 1054 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 中国银行间市场周二资金面平稳向宽，主要期限回购利率低位徘徊，存款类机构隔夜回购利率微降并停留于 1.32% 附近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上， 隔夜报价亦仍在 1.3% ，供给规模接近两千亿元人民币；非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜资金，报价降至 1.4% 附近。交易员指出，资金很松，市场真不缺 钱，资金面整体平稳偏宽态势不改；考虑到本周适逢月末时点，仍需关注央行后续投放力度及资金变化情况。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.93% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a downward trend in yields since the end of September, despite an overall adjustment since the beginning of the year, with the ten-year government bond yield currently around 1.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The active ten-year government bond has switched to 250016, which has a higher yield due to VAT, currently at approximately 1.8%, compared to the previous bond 250011, which remains below 1.75% [1]. - The downward trend in bond yields is supported by positive factors, including the central bank's resumption of government bond trading operations, which alleviates market supply and demand pressure [1]. - The economic environment in October is facing challenges, with a longer holiday period and a marginal decline in the effects of previous policy stimuli, leading to a downward trend in economic performance compared to Q3 [1]. Group 2: Credit Bonds and Global Comparison - Credit bonds have shown a similar trend to government bonds, but credit spreads remain in a downward oscillation [2]. - As of October, China's ten-year government bond yield is approximately 1.84%, which is still low compared to global standards, with only Switzerland, Japan, and Singapore having lower yields [2]. - Most Western developed countries have higher government bond yields than China, with U.S. Treasury yields around 4%, indicating a significant China-U.S. yield spread [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is currently in a favorable narrow oscillation pattern, with expectations for policy easing in early next year, suggesting potential trading opportunities [4]. - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a preferred tool for medium to long-term allocation and trading, offering stable duration, transparent holdings, and low fees [4].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 24, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 338.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 283 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market in China showed a relaxed funding environment, with overnight repurchase rates slightly decreasing to around 1.32% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous X-repo system remained around 1.3%, with a supply scale of about 100 billion yuan [3] - Non-bank institutions were borrowing overnight funds against pledged credit bonds at rates between 1.47% and 1.48% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.91% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks was around 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Major Interest Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds were reported, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.4025%, and the 10-year bond yield at 1.6900% [9] Group 5: Recent MLF Operations - The central bank plans to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November, as 900 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature [13] - The total medium-term liquidity released through MLF and reverse repos in November is 600 billion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level for four consecutive months [13] Group 6: Bond Market Developments - The central bank successfully issued 45 billion yuan in central bank bills in Hong Kong on November 24, with a 3-month issuance of 30 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.60% [13] - The issuance of local government bonds in Inner Mongolia is scheduled for December 1, amounting to 10.4 billion yuan [17]

2025 年 11 月 23 日 债券研究周报 [Table_Title] 30 年国债切券的来龙去脉 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 相关报告 《债券研究周报：债市低波横盘的几条线索*颜子 琦，洪子彦》——2025-11-17 《固定收益专题研究：基金拉久期的背后*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-11-10 《固定收益点评：美元流动性危机来了吗？*颜子 琦，洪子彦》——2025-11-05 《债券研究周报：11 月债市有哪些机会？*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-11-02 《债券研究周报：同业存单已到配置时机*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-10-26 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期债券市场行情复盘；2、近期机 构行为变化；3、后续债市行情展望。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 洪子彦 S0350525100001 hongzy@ghzq.com.cn | 1、 | 本周债市点评 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2、 | 债券收益率曲线跟踪 | ...

科技巨头的最新举动，引发市场担忧！ 最近，美国科技巨头突然掀起发债热潮，亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta、甲骨文四家公司的发行量，就 已接近900亿美元。有外媒统计，美国企业今年已发行超2000亿美元公司债券，用于资助人工智能相关基础设 施项目。这引发了市场能否消化如此庞大供应的疑问，同时也加剧了人们对AI相关支出的日益增长的担忧。 上述担忧，也"空袭"了美股市场，触发美股自11月初以来的大幅回调。数据显示，11月至今，以科技股为主的 纳斯达克指数跌幅超过6%，标普500指数、道指分别下跌3.47%、2.77%。另外，美国科技七巨头指数下跌 5.73%，费城半导体指数大跌超11%。 个股方面，仅11月14日单周，超威半导体（AMD）的跌幅就超过17%，美光科技跌近16%，微软跌超7%，高 通跌超6%，亚马逊、英伟达跌近6%。 威灵顿管理公司投资组合经理表示："所有这些超大规模企业都在发债，市场意识到，为AI提供资金的将不是 私人信贷市场，也不会是自由现金流。资金将不得不来自公共债券市场。资本需要有个来源来为这一切融资， 但现在的情况是，人们认识到资金几乎需要从股市流向债市。" 美国银行证券分析师在 ...

Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - The September labor report is viewed positively, indicating a rise in the unemployment rate due to more individuals re-entering the labor force, with approximately 475,000 people coming back [2] - The report suggests that while there may be some softening in the labor market, it is not experiencing a significant downturn, which supports the Federal Reserve's current stance [3] - Market reactions show a decrease in the probability of an immediate rate cut by the Fed, with current odds at around 40% for a cut in December [4] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rates due to persistent inflation issues, despite a stable labor market [5][6] - There is speculation that bond yields should be closer to 5% due to economic stimulus and investment, yet current yields remain around 4.1% [8] - The bond market is experiencing low volatility, attributed to a lack of major surprises from the Fed and a shift in investor interest towards bonds as a hedge against equity market fluctuations [9][11] Private Credit Concerns - The rapid growth of private credit is drawing attention from the Federal Reserve, with recent events such as the termination of the Blue Owl merger highlighting potential stresses in this sector [12][13] - The Fed is expected to collaborate with regulatory bodies like the SEC and FSO to monitor private credit more closely to prevent issues similar to the subprime crisis [13][14] - The opacity and illiquidity of private credit markets are causing concern among investors, impacting overall market sentiment [14][15]