1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the bond market remained weak. The ultra - long - end interest rates continued to rise while the short - end rates recovered, steepening the yield curve. The trading desks, represented by securities firms and broad - based funds, continued to reduce their bond allocations, but the reduction intensity of securities firms weakened and they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds. The allocation - oriented institutions such as banks and insurance companies increased their bond allocations, but the scale was limited and difficult to reverse the overall interest - rate trend. The top signal of interest rates might need to wait until the allocation power strengthened to the point where the selling pressure from trading institutions could no longer push interest rates significantly higher [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 12 - month Interest - rate Bonds Drag Bond Custody Increment to Drop Significantly, Credit and Certificates of Deposit Also Decline - In December, the total bond custody scale increased by 30.26 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 117.73 billion yuan compared with November. The custody increment of interest - rate bonds was 69.59 billion yuan, about 78 billion yuan lower than the previous month. The custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all decreased significantly. The net financing of medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers also decreased significantly, leading to a lower custody increment of credit bonds. The custody scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline by 62.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 23.66 billion yuan compared with the previous month [3][10]. 3.2 Trading Desks' Reduction of Allocations Continues, Allocation - Oriented Desks Lack Incentive to Increase Allocations 3.2.1 Broad - based Funds - In December, the bond custody volume of broad - based funds decreased by 9.92 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 22.16 billion yuan in the previous month. The reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was 34.96 billion yuan, an increase of 34.01 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The reduction in treasury bonds, enterprise bonds, short - term commercial papers, PPNs, and credit - asset - backed securities increased, while the increase in medium - term notes and local bonds decreased. The reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased, and they started to increase their allocation to policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of broad - based funds on bonds increased, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was particularly significant, but the reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased and the allocation to policy - financial bonds increased [17][19]. 3.2.2 Securities Firms - In December, the bond custody volume of securities firms decreased by 0.23 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 13.98 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to increase their allocation to treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and commercial - bank bonds, increased their allocation to local bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, PPNs, and enterprise bonds increased. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of securities firms on bonds decreased, mainly as they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds but started to reduce their allocation to credit bonds [27]. 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In December, the bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 1.15 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They increased their allocation to treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit, decreased their reduction in commercial - bank bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds and medium - term notes, decreased their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream, and increased their reduction in enterprise bonds. Relative to the stock, insurance companies started to increase their allocation to bonds, mainly increasing their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds [33]. 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In December, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 15.09 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 3.41 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, increased their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, but started to increase their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of overseas institutions on bonds increased slightly, mainly increasing their reduction in policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their reduction in treasury bonds and increasing their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes [34]. 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In December, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 18.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 39.22 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They decreased their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds, started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, but increased their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit. The change in the bond custody structure of other institutions might indicate that the underlying assets of repurchase agreements were still mainly local bonds, but some were replaced from policy - financial bonds to treasury bonds [39]. 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In December, the bond custody scale of commercial banks increased by 25.73 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 52.58 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The increase in local bonds, treasury bonds, financial bonds on the Clearstream, and medium - term notes decreased, the reduction in short - term commercial papers, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and commercial - bank bonds increased, and the increase in policy - financial bonds increased. This also reflected the impact of the change in the structure of repurchase - agreement underlying assets to some extent. Relative to the stock, commercial banks also increased their allocation to bonds to some extent, increasing their allocation to policy - financial bonds and treasury bonds, increasing their allocation to local bonds, decreasing their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream and medium - term notes, and increasing their reduction in short - term commercial papers and commercial - bank bonds [45]. 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In December, the bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 9.82 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.98 billion yuan in the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, increased their reduction in policy - financial bonds and commercial - bank bonds, and decreased their allocation to local bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of credit unions on bonds increased, mainly reducing their allocation to certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds [46]. 3.3 The Bond - market Leverage Ratio Seasonally Rebounded in December, and Securities Firms Reduced Leverage but It Remained at a High Level - In December, affected by short - term disturbances in the liabilities of some institutions at the end of the year and the increase in the demand for borrowing funds, the bond - market leverage ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8%, which was in line with the seasonal pattern. By institution, the leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 103.6%; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month to 118.4%, which was also in line with the seasonal characteristics; the leverage ratio of securities firms decreased significantly by 14.1 percentage points month - on - month to 217.3%, but it was still at a high level; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal - person products increased by 1.7 percentage points month - on - month to 115.4%, which was at a relatively low level in the past three years. In the broad - based funds, the repurchase balances of various institutions rebounded. Among them, the repurchase balances of money - market funds, other products, and insurance companies reached record highs, and the repurchase balance of wealth - management products reached a new high since 2025, but the repurchase balance of non - money - market funds remained at a relatively low level since 2023 [4][52].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Geopolitical Trends**: The trend of de-dollarization is strengthening globally, with precious metals, especially gold, becoming a focal point in capital markets. The U.S. economy faces structural issues such as high deficits, high leverage, and inflation, which may impact global financial stability [1][2] - **China's Economic Outlook**: China's macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize by 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 4.5% in Q4. However, internal demand remains weak, and the investment sector is declining, particularly in the real estate industry, where second-hand home prices are rapidly falling [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **2026 Economic Changes**: Anticipated changes in 2026 include adjustments in baseline statistics affecting GDP, CPI, and PPI readings, a potential improvement in endogenous demand despite its current weakness, and a focus on quality and structure of economic growth rather than just speed [6][9] - **Industrial Inventory Cycle**: Since October 2023, the inventory cycle of Chinese industrial enterprises has been flat. A downward trend is expected in 2026 due to supply-demand adjustments, with a potential recovery in 2027 driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Shifts**: The Chinese government is shifting its focus from high-speed growth to improving the quality and structure of economic growth, which may lead to a reduction in growth targets [9] - **Bond Market Dynamics**: The bond market is showing signs of stability, with significant compression in yield spreads. Large banks are buying long-term bonds, while smaller banks are focusing on medium-term national development bonds, indicating a healthy market demand [11][12] - **Market Volatility and Financing**: Recent adjustments in financing margin ratios to 100% reflect regulatory measures similar to those in 2015, suggesting that future leverage in the market may be limited [18][19] - **Investment Recommendations**: Current investment strategies should focus on technology and cyclical sectors, with a shift from precious metals to industrial and new energy metals. There is also a recommendation to explore themes related to internet assets, AI applications, and other innovative sectors [20] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the relevant industries and economic conditions.

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The latest yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.294, UK 4.457, France 3.526, Germany 2.858, Italy 3.501, Spain 3.254, Switzerland 0.248, Greece 3.492, Japan 2.351, Brazil 6.271, China 1.832, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.782, New Zealand 4.515 [1] - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 2 - year Treasury bonds are: US 3.598, UK 3.667, Germany 2.068, Japan 1.212, Italy 2.168, China (1Y yield) 1.270, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.102 [1] - **USD Exchange Rates against Major Emerging - Market Currencies**: The latest exchange rates are: South Africa zar 5.376, Russia 16.425, South Korean won 1477.550, Thai baht 31.075, Malaysian ringgit 4.055 [1] - **Renminbi**: The latest values are: on - shore RMB 6.961, off - shore RMB 6.956, mid - price 7.001, 12 - month NDF 6.834 [1] - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: The latest indices are: Dow Jones 6796.860, S&P 500 48488.590, Industrial Index 22954.320, Nasdaq 67683.380, Mexican Index 10126.780, UK Index 8062.580, France CAC 24703.120, Germany DAX 17429.100, Spanish Index (not available), Russian Index (not available), Nikkei 52991.100, Hang Seng Index 26487.510, Shanghai Composite Index 4113.649, Taiwan Index 31759.990, South Korean Index 4885.750, Indian Index 9134.700, Thai Index 1296.370, Malaysian Index 1699.060, Australian Index 9138.573, Index 1480.630 [1] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values are: US investment - grade credit bond index 3534.390, Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index 266.750, emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 289.830, US high - yield credit bond index 2925.390, Eurozone high - yield credit bond index 411.820, emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1823.969 [1] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 4113.65, 4718.88, 3070.65, 3277.98, and 8247.80 respectively. The percentage changes are - 0.01%, - 0.33%, - 0.17%, - 1.79%, and - 0.48% respectively [2] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.22, 11.74, 37.41, 27.14, and 19.17 respectively. The环比 changes are 0.00, 0.03, - 0.19, - 0.58, and - 0.20 respectively [2] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.61 and 2.36 respectively. The环比 changes are 0.01 and 0.03 respectively [2] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 1609.92, - 783.62, (not available), - 635.48, and - 346.24 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 890.02, - 614.69, (not available), - 245.35, and - 396.73 respectively [2] Group 3: Other Trading Data - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are 27776.57, 6719.61, 1757.36, 5667.08, and 7026.80 respectively. The环比 changes are 693.08, 168.12, 95.56, 190.51, and - 64.76 respectively [3] - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 10.28, 4.75, and 1.00 respectively, with spreads of - 0.22%, 0.15%, and 0.01% respectively [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.18, 105.88, 108.11, and 105.88 respectively. The percentage changes are 0.13%, 0.09%, 0.12%, and 0.06% respectively [3] - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.4212%, 1.5429%, and 1.6000% respectively. The daily changes are - 11.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP respectively [3]

央行打出结构性货币政策工具的"组合拳"；资金面明显改善，债市偏强震荡 【内容摘要】 1 月 15 日，资金面明显改善；债市整体偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体上涨， 转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分 化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》】1 月 16 日出 版的第 2 期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章 《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》。文章提出了当前和今后一个时期城市工作的总体要求，强 调要以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精 神，坚持和加强党的全面领导，认真践行人民城市理念，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持因地 制宜、分类指导，以建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市为目标，以 推动城市高质量发展为主题，以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线，以推进城市更新为重要抓手，大 力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效，牢牢守住城市 安全底线，走出一条中国特色城市现代化新路子。 【牢牢守 ...

"2026年债市双向波动，把握节奏机会大于捕捉趋势。"摩根士丹利基金固定收益投资部联席总监吴慧文 近日在接受证券时报记者采访时，对新一年的债券市场做出判断。在她看来，债市上半年核心运行逻辑 将围绕对基本面和走出通缩的强预期和弱现实之间的收敛展开，预计市场呈现双向波动的特征，投资需 聚焦波段机会与风险控制，兼顾中长期趋势和短期交易操作的节奏差异。 根据Wind数据，在2025年"债熊"环境下，吴慧文管理的大摩安盈稳固六个月持有债券A全年的收益率达 到5.47%，排名同类前8%；而在"债牛"的2024年，大摩安盈稳固全年收益率7.72%，排名同类前7%，连 续两年均位列前10%分位数。这位拥有券商自营利率衍生品研究、国债期货交易等十几年实战经验的固 收老将，以一套融合宏观、中观、微观的研判框架穿越牛熊市场。 2026年，她提出以"稳健打底、主动出击及动态适配"为核心的投资策略，试图在低利率、高波动的市场 环境中寻求突围。 三维印证下的高胜率法则 复盘2025年，吴慧文的月度策略胜率超过90%，这得益于她建立的严密投研系统。她表示："我们的研 判框架融合了宏观、中观、微观三个维度，三者相互印证，力求提升决策胜率。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to face challenges at the beginning of 2026, with pure bond funds, especially medium to long-term ones, experiencing significant declines, while convertible bond funds show relatively strong performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 14, 2026, 20% of pure bond funds have reported zero or negative returns, with 477 out of 492 underperforming funds being medium to long-term pure bond funds [1][2]. - The average return for bond funds in 2025 was approximately 2.73%, a significant drop from 4.42% in 2024, indicating a nearly halved yield for bond funds [2]. - Notably, some pure bond funds have seen declines exceeding 0.5%, with specific funds like Guotai's Tianrui One-Year Open Bond Fund reporting a return of -0.82% [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Redemptions - The bond market's poor performance has led to significant capital outflows, with bond ETFs losing over 70 billion yuan since the start of 2026 [4]. - Specific bond ETFs, such as the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, have seen their scales shrink by over 12.1 billion yuan, while a few convertible bond ETFs have experienced net inflows [4][5]. - Several bond funds have announced increases in net asset value calculation precision due to large redemptions, a common measure to mitigate the impact of significant withdrawals [5][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term factors contributing to the decline in pure bond fund yields include rising long-term bond rates, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.89% [7]. - Analysts express caution regarding the short-term outlook for the bond market, anticipating continued volatility, but believe the long-term downside risk is limited [7][8]. - The overall economic environment suggests that while the bond market faces pressure, the risk of significant declines remains relatively low due to supportive monetary policies [8][9].

Group 1 - The bond market in China has played a significant role in supporting the real economy and responding to national strategies, experiencing a transition from a trending market to a fluctuating market [1][2] - In 2025, the bond market saw a substantial growth in scale, with the total outstanding bonds surpassing 196 trillion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 28.37% in government bond issuance [2] - The introduction of the "technology board" and the rapid rise of "science and technology bonds" issuance to 1.87 trillion yuan have marked a significant breakthrough in product innovation and structural optimization within the bond market [2][4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policies for 2026, including more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, are expected to create a favorable environment for the bond market, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand [4][5] - The integration of the bond market with technological innovation is anticipated to deepen, with the development of science and technology bonds becoming a key indicator of the bond market's support for the transformation and upgrading of the real economy [5] - The internationalization of the capital market is entering a new phase, with increasing attractiveness of RMB assets and steady foreign investment demand, alongside efforts to enhance connectivity between China's bond market and the global financial system [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 30-year government bond ETF is actively traded and supported by the central bank's monetary policy to promote high-quality economic development [1][2] - As of January 15, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year government bond ETF over the past year was 84.00 billion yuan, with a current scale of 233.53 billion yuan [1] - The central bank conducted a 867 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on January 16, resulting in a net injection of 527 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2 - According to the Central Economic Work Conference, fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain relatively proactive, but the overall deficit rate is high, which may limit the government's ability to increase bond financing significantly [2] - The social financing growth is expected to slow down, with a projected year-on-year increase of around 8.0% in 2026 [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Bond Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds [2] Group 3 - The 30-year government bond ETF employs a sampling replication strategy, which allows it to efficiently track the index without needing to purchase all constituent bonds [6][15] - This strategy enhances liquidity by focusing on actively traded bonds, making transactions smoother for investors [16] - The ETF's design reduces the investment threshold, allowing participation with as little as 10,000 yuan, thus catering to small investors [16]

首先他强调，要把成本控制住，这个很重要。"让利润奔跑，坐轿不抬轿。一定要控制成本，很多人今 天买、明天卖，成本到了4200，它一调整就有问题。" 第二，他认为，往后"涨胖"的速度会远超"涨高"的速度。 专题：2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会 2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会于1月15日在北京举行。前券商首席经济学家李大霄针对A股 已经到了4100点，不少散户朋友说股指涨得很高，但是收获感还不那么明显，前券商首席经济学家李大 霄提出了两点看法。 李大提到，"1月14日的数据是375点，2024年涨了376点，这个调控是很有道理的。为什么？半个月就涨 了2024年一年的涨幅，剩下的11个月加半个月怎么办呢？要想一想这个问题。" 此外，他还提出来几个观点： 第一，4万亿可能是最近乃至中期的一个成交量的顶部。 第二，就算今天回来，也有接近3万亿，市场人气还在。 第三，4200点大顶的概率并不高。 第四，现在是降温，不是逆转。 第五，现在总市值是129万亿，涨胖的速度是飞速的，一定要注意这个维度，要有测量。 第六，现在的热点还是围绕着马斯克先生的三个小时的采访，这个东西有待进一步地研究。 第七，今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached 4100 points, but many retail investors feel a lack of tangible gains despite the index rise. The former chief economist of a brokerage firm, Li Daxiao, emphasizes the importance of cost control and suggests that the speed of "gaining weight" in the market will exceed the speed of "gaining height" in the future [1][6][8]. Market Analysis - As of January 14, the market data indicated a rise of 375 points, with a total increase of 376 points for the year 2024. This rapid increase raises concerns about the sustainability of such growth over the remaining months [3][9]. - A trading volume of 4 trillion may represent a recent or medium-term peak, while the market still shows strong sentiment with nearly 3 trillion in trading volume even after recent adjustments [9][10]. - The probability of a significant top at 4200 points is considered low, indicating a more stable outlook for the market [10]. Current Market Conditions - The total market capitalization stands at 129 trillion, with a rapid increase in the "gaining weight" aspect of the market that requires careful measurement [11]. - The current market environment is characterized as a cooling phase rather than a reversal, suggesting a potential stabilization in market dynamics [10]. - The focus remains on sectors such as insurance and non-ferrous metals, which may lead the market, while high dividend stocks are seen as a stronghold [12][13]. Investment Sentiment - The bond market is advised to be approached with caution this year, reflecting a more conservative investment strategy [12]. - Recent market fluctuations have seen significant selling pressure from major companies, but there are signs of a shift from selling to supporting the market, indicating a possible end to the recent cooling phase [13].