1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, and the short - term volatility of precious metals will increase. Silver is oscillating upward, but beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut is realized [1] - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - Coking coal is greatly affected by supply disturbances. The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term steel price may oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4] - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - The national hog price is mainly stable. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - Palm oil may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the MPOB report's production - cut expectation [6] - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to relevant policies and import news [6][7] - The long - term treasury bond oscillates downward, but the downside is limited [7] - Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term under the background of high inventory, stable supply and weak demand [8] - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term due to increased supply, rising inventory and weak downstream demand [9] - Copper will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] - Crude oil is under pressure from supply - demand surplus, and should be treated with a weak - oscillation mindset [10] - PTA may rise after a decline, but be cautious when chasing high prices [11] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly due to insufficient demand [12] 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Precious Metals - **Silver**: The Fed may cut interest rates tonight. Silver is oscillating upward, and beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut [1] - **Gold**: The dot plot of Fed officials and the future Fed chairperson are the keys to the medium - and long - term trend. Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price is 1258 yuan/ton, with a weak price recently. The supply - demand is stable, but the high inventory is difficult to resolve. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - **Methanol**: The production in the northwest is decreasing, the price in the Jiangsu market is falling, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling, the supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the downstream is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, the load is expected to be stable, but the demand is expected to weaken. PTA may rise after a decline, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The global supply is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pressures the price. It is expected to oscillate weakly [10] Metals - **Coking Coal**: The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - **Steel (Rebar)**: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price may oscillate, but the upside is limited [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - **Copper**: It will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production in Malaysia may decline slightly in November, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic market price is falling, the demand is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] - **Hog**: The price is mainly stable, expected to oscillate within a range. Wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material is resistant to price drops, but the demand is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term outlook of "sideways" for the entire black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm. The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later period. The fundamentals are still under pressure after entering the off - season, and the steel futures market is running weakly. There is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, and there is an expectation of an increase in Mongolian coal imports. The iron ore and coking coal markets were weak during the day session and showed signs of stabilization at night. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are not good. Without any signals beyond expectations from the Politburo meeting, it is expected that the sector will still face downward adjustment pressure in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are conducting annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the spot price has fallen, its cost - effectiveness has recovered. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported. It is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter restocking for raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment in the coking coal market. The downstream winter restocking that will start in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [2]. 3.3 Alloys - The firm cost supports the price, but the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient driving force for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the ferrosilicon manganese futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is relatively obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased. Although the overall supply - demand is still in surplus, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][12]. 3.5 Specific Products 3.5.1 Steel - The macro support is limited, and the futures market continues to be weak. The spot market transactions are generally weak. Near the end of the year, steel mill maintenance has increased, iron and steel production has declined from a high level, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the steel production will not decline significantly in the later period, and the futures market will run weakly [7]. 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The market sentiment is average, and the price fluctuates. The overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals have decreased significantly this period. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline seasonally, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrivals have increased slightly, and the price fluctuates. The supply has increased, and the demand from electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has changed. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate [9]. 3.5.4 Coke - The futures market has stabilized at a low level, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the spot market. The supply is affected by raw material prices and environmental protection, and the demand has declined seasonally. The inventory has slightly accumulated. The cost support has weakened, but there is an expectation of winter restocking. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal [10]. 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The auction transactions have improved slightly, and the futures market is still running weakly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the imports have recovered. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. The pessimistic sentiment needs time to reverse, and the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [11]. 3.5.6 Glass - The futures and spot transactions have improved, but the spot market is still weak. The supply is expected to decline in the long run but is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the high inventory of middle - stream enterprises suppresses the valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may have a downward pressure [12]. 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The industry is in the bottom - clearing stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. 3.5.8 Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost price is firm, and the decline of the futures price is limited. The cost support is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [14]. 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the futures price runs at a low level. The cost is at a high level, the demand from steel mills and metal magnesium is weak, and the supply has decreased slightly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [16].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-09 宏观⽀撑有限，盘⾯延续弱势 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢⼚盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以⼤幅下降，基本⾯在进⼊淡季之后仍有压⼒，钢材盘⾯弱 势运⾏。铁⽔仍有季节性⾛弱预期，蒙煤进⼝仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘⾯表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘⾯价格。 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢厂盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以大幅下降，基本面在进入淡季之后仍有压力，钢材盘面弱 势运行。铁水仍有季节性走弱预期，蒙煤进口仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘面表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水下降明显，下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检 修，但钢厂盈利率略有好转，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环 比略增，澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增 加，本期到港环比减量明显。但港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环 比增加，整体仍有累库压力。废钢基本面矛盾有限，现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in an oscillating range, waiting for a driver to break through the position. The iron ore futures price has dropped as expected, and the coking coal futures price has broken through the position and hit a new low. It is necessary to pay attention to the guidance of important meetings in December [3]. - The steel market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc. Currently, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are structural differentiations and regional contradictions. The coking coal and coke market is affected by downstream demand and supply - side factors, with prices under pressure [5][69]. - The iron ore market is expected to see continued inventory accumulation due to weakening demand and stable supply, and the price is difficult to break through the upward range [118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: The molten iron output continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.38 to 232.3wt in the current week. The daily consumption of scrap steel decreased slightly month - on - month, and was lower than the level in 2023. After entering December, the production profit of steel mills improved slightly compared with November [5]. - **Demand**: From the perspective of industrial data, the supply - demand structure is statically balanced, and dynamically shows a trend of weakening supply and demand, with the decline in supply greater than that in demand. From the perspective of market perception, the demand is basically around the rigid - demand level, and speculative demand is light. The demand for medium - plate is stable, the cold - rolled demand has slightly improved, the apparent demand for building materials has shown a seasonal decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratios of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products are under great pressure [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is still steadily decreasing, which may be mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratios of rebar and wire rod have changed from improvement to stability, while those of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products are under great pressure, and the medium - plate inventory is healthy [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 93, and the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 20 [5]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has slightly rebounded, but the profitability level is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36%, with a week - on - week change of + 1.3% [5]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, which is more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage. From an industrial perspective, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is neutral [5]. - **Macro and Risk Preference**: This week is important and will be a key week for the macro - trading expectations of December. There will be a game on the new round of interest - rate cut expectations in the United States, and important domestic meetings such as the Central Economic Work Conference and a Politburo meeting at the end of the year [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the market is in an oscillating range. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - reduction logic and then observe the start of the winter - storage replenishment drive. It is advisable to focus on the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of hot - rolled coils [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Cash - and - carry: Pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of hot - rolled coils [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The supply and demand of steel have both declined. This week, the apparent demand for five major steel products is 864.17 (- 23.83), and the output is 828.95 (- 26.76). The demand shows a seasonal performance, the supply is declining rapidly, and the inventory is being depleted quickly, but the absolute inventory value is high, and the industrial contradictions are not prominent. The profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded month - on - month, and the molten iron output has continued to decline. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week is 232.30 (- 2.38), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36% (+ 1.30%) [69]. - **Supply of Coking Coal**: The domestic coal - mine production maintains a low level, and large mines still have the intention to reduce production in the later period. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains high, and the inventory in the supervision area has continued to accumulate and is close to 3 million tons. The quotation of overseas coal has continued to rise. As of December 4, the CFR quotation of Australian Peak Downs coal is 221.45 US dollars (+ 5.6), and the CFR quotation of first - line prime coking coal is 205.5 US dollars (+ 0.5) [69]. - **Supply of Coke**: The supply of coke has rebounded. This week, the daily average coke output is 111.1 (+ 1.1), the coking profit is 30 (- 17). The price - reduction rhythm is slow, the price of raw coal has fallen in advance, the coking profit remains at a good level, and the supply of coke has continued to recover rapidly [69]. - **Inventory**: The middle and lower reaches have continued to slow down their procurement, and the upstream has continued to accumulate inventory. The total inventory has continued to increase, and the corresponding price has been under downward pressure [69]. - **Basis/Spread**: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the market still has expectations for subsequent price cuts. After the implementation, the warehouse - receipt cost is 1700, the port trade quotation has fallen in advance, and the converted warehouse - receipt cost is 1600. The futures price around 1550 reflects the expectation of four - round price cuts. The warehouse - receipt cost of Mongolian coal is around 1100, but several near - month contracts are affected by the difficulty of handling long - position deliveries, and are basically below 1000 near the delivery time [69]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36% (+ 1.30%), and the coking profit is 30 (- 17) [69]. - **Summary**: The Black Chain Index rose first and then fell this week. By Friday, the downward pressure on commodities increased, and many varieties began to accelerate their decline. The coking coal futures broke through the position at night and hit a new low. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of steel have both declined, the inventory is being depleted quickly, but the industrial contradictions are not prominent. Coking coal prices have continued to weaken due to the slowdown in downstream replenishment. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and it is not recommended to chase short positions even if the position is broken [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [69]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipment volume has rebounded by 21.1 tons per day to 4.67 million tons per day month - on - month. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia has rebounded by 38.4 tons per day, that from Brazil has declined by 34.1 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines has rebounded by 16.4 tons per day to 1.024 million tons per day. The arrival volume in China has rebounded by 31.4 tons per day, with the arrival volume from Australia increasing by 21.2 tons per day, that from Brazil increasing by 6.6 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream sources increasing by 3.6 tons per day [118]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has slightly declined to 2.323 million tons (- 2.38). The main reason for the weakening demand is the maintenance of steel mills. The profit ratio of steel mills has slightly rebounded, but has declined by 1.3% month - on - month to 36.36%. The port inventory has increased by 898,900 tons and exceeded the level of the same period last year. The output of five major steel products has significantly declined, mainly due to rebar. Rebar still maintains a rhythm of low output, low apparent demand, and slight inventory depletion. The output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory is stable, but the slope has weakened, and the overall inventory far exceeds the seasonal level [118]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 898,900 tons month - on - month. Under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [118]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to gradually affect the molten iron output [118]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral. After oscillating at the upper edge of the range, the iron ore price has declined. Fundamentally, the short - term arrival volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the subsequent shipment volume will remain stable, with no major unexpected fluctuations. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate under the pressure of molten iron production [118]. - **Summary**: It is expected that the subsequent fluctuations will mainly come from the production reduction of steel mills due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel mills. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise. Under the inventory pressure, it is difficult for the iron ore price to break through the upward range, and the previous short positions can be held [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [118].

| 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 【钢材】区间震荡,等待新驱动 CAP 2000 周末现货偏弱,现货价格小跌10-20元不等,成交清淡。宏观层面,本周比较重要,将是12月宏观交易的重点博弈周: 降息预期博弈以及国内中央经济工作会议等重要会议:目前看,市场暂时没有做出太多预期交易。产业这端,周度层面的 1000 需结构变化都偏平稳。上周数据看钢材五材供需更多表现为供需两弱。压力或重新给到炉料,五材中板材去库压力比较突 出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿。此外,后续预计产业端会有一些适当补库的行为, -200 释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。因此,构成了近期黑色板块行情波动不大,价格区间震荡的基础。12月相对 可以预见的是铁水产量或许还有一些下降空间,再之后的冬储补库,按照这个产业链逻辑备采线性外推的话,目前需要适 00 + 100 20 + 100 70 + 2002 z ++700 60-7707 2024-07 5-02 当等待减产逻辑兑现:之后观察冬储补库驱动的启动。当下比较有效的参与方式是在基差有安全边际 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, but the profit of terminal steel mills is under pressure, and the hot metal production continues to decrease, leading to an increase in the surplus of coking coal. The inventory pressure of upstream mines is gradually emerging, and the short - term coal price will still be under pressure. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and the coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. The spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price reduction pressure [2]. - The JiaoMei 01 contract has a clear short - term bearish trend, and the short positions at the previous high can be held. The far - month 05 contract has medium - to - long - term long - allocation value. For coke, the current main contract price has factored in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts, and it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal supply: Domestic mine production decreased slightly this week. The impact of over - production inspection and environmental protection inspection continues. In December, the domestic mine operation is expected to be generally stable, and the possibility of a significant increase in coking coal production is low. The Mongolian coal at the port actively cleared customs this week. The import profit of coking coal has narrowed, and the subsequent arrival of overseas coal is expected to decline [2]. - Coking coal demand: Terminal steel mills' profit is under pressure, hot metal production continues to decrease, and coking enterprises actively control the raw material procurement rhythm, resulting in increased inventory pressure on upstream mines [2]. - Coke supply: Due to the decline in the cost of coking coal, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase [2]. - Coke demand: With the gradual recovery of coking enterprise operation, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay [8]. - **Price Range**: JM2601 operates in the range of 1000 - 1100, 2605 in the range of 1100 - 1350; J2601 operates in the range of 1500 - 1700, 2605 in the range of 1650 - 1900 [8]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis of coking coal has slightly narrowed, and the basis of coke is currently at a moderately high valuation. It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [9]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal fluctuated little this week, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened. The 1 - 5 positive spread of coke is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: None [10]. - **Option Strategy**: None [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Coking Coal Purchase Management**: It is recommended that industrial customers with purchase plans maintain normal raw material inventory and wait for the spot valuation to fall before purchasing [12]. - **Coke Sales Management**: It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [12]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The output of some coking coal mines and coal washing plants has changed slightly. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased by 42.97 tons compared with last week [13]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants has increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has decreased by 1.69 tons compared with last week [13]. - **Coal - Coke Futures Price and Spread**: The price and spread of coking coal and coke futures contracts have changed to varying degrees [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The social inventory of steel products has continued to decline, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased. The profitability of steel mills has improved [20][21]. - **Negative Information**: The enthusiasm of coking plants for restocking is poor, and the inventory pressure of mine coking coal has increased. The coking enterprise operation rate has increased, and the number of downstream steel - mill overhauls has increased, deteriorating the supply - demand structure of coke [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday, pay attention to China's November trade balance in US dollars. - Next Wednesday, pay attention to China's November M2 money supply annual rate and November CPI annual rate. - Next Thursday, pay attention to the upper limit of the Fed's interest rate decision as of December 10 and the number of initial jobless claims in the US as of December 6 [22][25]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The JiaoMei 2601 contract is oscillating at the bottom this week, with a clear short - term bearish trend. The coke 2601 contract has a driving force to rebound and repair the basis [23]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal fluctuated little this week, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened [32]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of coking coal has slightly narrowed, and the current basis of coke is at a moderately high valuation. It is recommended that industrial customers with coke inventory speed up sales [41]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profit of coking coal mines has declined from a high level, the immediate coking profit is expected to shrink marginally, and the loss situation of steel mills has eased [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The clearance enthusiasm at the 288 port has significantly increased, but the long - term trade profit of Mongolian coal has shrunk significantly. The import profit of overseas coal has narrowed, and the subsequent arrival of overseas coal is expected to decline [51][56]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In the fourth quarter, the production increase space of coking coal mines is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal in December will be about 9.67 million tons, and the net import volume will be 10 - 10.2 million tons [78]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Recently, the profit of steel mills has shrunk, and the number of steel mills planning overhauls has increased. It is estimated that the daily average hot metal output in December will be 2.29 million tons [81]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply and demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke from Week 40 to Week 51 in 2025 are estimated, and the changes in supply, demand, and inventory are predicted [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs, with gradually improving profits. The market may pre - trade market expectations, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate moderately. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel and downstream consumption [3]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and steel mills have actively carried out maintenance and production cuts. After the reduction in steel production, steel inventory has been destocked, and the contradictions in the industrial chain have been alleviated. The price of coking coal has generally declined, benefiting steel mills, and the profits of steel mills have recently increased. Steel mills now have the space and motivation for new production increases. Steel currently has low raw material inventory and has the demand for winter storage replenishment. With the approaching of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, macro - expectations provide support, and the short - term price decline space is limited [21]. - For coking coal, the marginal change in supply is limited, but the profits of terminal steel mills are under pressure, and the production of hot metal has been continuously reduced. The supply and demand of coking coal have turned into a slight surplus. Coking enterprises are actively controlling the raw material procurement rhythm due to the expected price cuts, and the inventory pressure on upstream mines is becoming apparent. Short - term coal prices will still be under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal has decreased, the immediate coking profit has recovered, and the subsequent coke supply is expected to increase. As the coking enterprises' production gradually resumes, coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of mainstream steel mills. Considering that the futures market has already priced in 4 - 5 rounds of price cuts in advance, the spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price - cut pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may decline due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the supply side maintains the trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Recently, the price of finished steel has been relatively strong, and the market may pre - hype market expectations, driving the rebound of ferroalloys. However, due to the weak fundamentals of ferroalloys themselves, they may return to their own fundamentals after the rebound [47]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is firm, the valuation has no upward elasticity without a trend - based production cut. The cold repair of glass has accelerated, and the expected rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The expectation of maintaining a high - level supply of soda ash in the medium and long term remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started inventory accumulation at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, and the balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In October, the export of soda ash exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - In December, the expectation of cold repair of glass production lines has resurfaced, and the implementation situation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key lies in the spot price in Hubei and the expectation of warehouse receipts. In reality, with the recent acceleration of cold repair and the expected further decline in daily melting volume, but the terminal has entered the off - season, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains at a high level, so there is still pressure on the spot price. The degree of inventory destocking in the mid - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3137, 3157, and 3192 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3320, and 3329 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed slight changes on December 5, 2025. For example, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3326 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [9][11]. - The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed compared with the previous day [4]. - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke remained unchanged at 4 and 2 respectively on December 5, 2025 [18]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil's futures prices, month - spreads, and basis were provided [5][6][7]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 785.5, 769, and 744 respectively, with daily changes of - 9, - 8, and - 9 respectively [22]. - The basis of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed certain changes [22]. - **Fundamentals** - On December 5, 2025, the daily average hot - metal production was 232.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.38 tons and a monthly decrease of 1.92 tons. The 45 - port desulfurization volume was 318.45 tons, a weekly decrease of 12.13 tons and a monthly decrease of 2.48 tons. Other indicators such as global shipping volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel - mill inventory also changed [25]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of iron ore's futures month - spreads and basis were provided [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - The month - spreads of coking coal and coke, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05, showed different degrees of changes on December 5, 2025. The immediate coking profit, main mine - coke ratio, main rebar - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio also changed [35]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and different types showed certain fluctuations on December 5, 2025 [38]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of coking coal and coke's futures month - spreads, basis, and coking profit were provided [40][41][42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 24, with a daily increase of 72. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads also changed. The spot prices of silicon iron in different regions remained relatively stable, and indicators such as the price of semi - coke small materials and the price of thermal coal also showed certain changes [48]. - **Silicon Manganese** - On December 5, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 122, with a daily increase of 38. The 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 month - spreads changed. The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions increased slightly, and the prices of different ores and the inventory of silicon manganese also changed [49][50]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese's production costs, profits, month - spreads, and basis were provided [51][52][53]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1213, 1275, and 1137 respectively, with daily changes of - 19, - 19, and - 25 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash also remained unchanged in most regions [62]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of soda ash's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, production capacity utilization, and production were provided [63][64][65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On December 5, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1115, 1176, and 994 respectively, with daily changes of - 16, - 12, and - 16 respectively. The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) also changed. The basis of different contracts in Shahe and Hubei also changed [85]. - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed different degrees of fluctuations from November 28 to December 4, 2025 [86]. - **Seasonal Data** - Seasonal charts of glass's futures prices, month - spreads, basis, inventory, daily melting volume, and sales - to - production ratio were provided [87][88][89].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 2025 年 12 月 5 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1184.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.67%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1651.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.66%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1177.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 0.59%；J2601 合约收于 1656.5，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.30%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、欧盟已宣布终止在世贸组织诉中国贸易限制措施案。商务部条约法律司负责人对此 | | | | | 表示，中方始终认为，欧方启动案件缺乏依据。因此，欧方决定终止案件审理是正确的 | | | | | 选择。 | | | | | 2、12 月 5 日，中国人民银行将以固定数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations. Steel products are in the off - season but continue to reduce inventory, with a firm performance on the futures market. Iron ore is under pressure due to the expected seasonal decline in hot metal. Coal and coke have rebounded from low levels on the futures market, while glass and soda ash are suppressed by oversupply [1][2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals have limited highlights. There is a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability rate of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The current arrival volume has decreased month - on - month, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the release of restocking demand is slow. With macro expectations ahead of important meetings, short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Coke supply continues to increase, while steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. With the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts expected, but due to the subsequent winter restocking expectations for raw materials, the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The current valuation level of coking coal on the futures market is still low. The low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the subsequent winter restocking expectations of the middle and lower reaches are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in manganese silicon costs supports the price, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose. Further upward movement of the futures price will face spot warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The strong cost trend supports the bottom of the silicon iron price, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Further upward movement of the futures price may face warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Currently, supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices may rise [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash industry price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has increased further, but the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][18]. 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel Products**: The demand has declined month - on - month. The overall spot market transactions are average. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Steel production has decreased from a high level, especially the production of rebar. The funds available for domestic construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. Steel inventories continue to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. With the weakening demand, the speed of inventory reduction is difficult to accelerate. The third - round and fifth - batch central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams have reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei, but the impact on the production of northern steel mills is limited. The profitability rate of steel mills has improved this week, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the future. With the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited due to poor fundamentals [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume and daily consumption of scrap steel have decreased, and steel mill restocking has slowed down. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price of the main contract has oscillated strongly due to the warm trend of the black sector and the significant increase in manganese ore port quotations, which has strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The cost of manganese silicon has gradually increased, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of the main contract has risen due to the strong trend of black chain varieties and the increase in settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai, which has strengthened the cost support and production - reduction expectations for silicon iron. The cost trend is strong, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [21].

近期双硅价格跟随整个黑色板块反弹,但总体看来驱动仍不足。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润收缩,铁水 下调整,直接需求走弱预期较强。随着终端需求淡季来临,负反馈压力逐步累积。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高 合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。 近期双硅供给偏高而需求偏弱,虽然成本支撑走强,但供需过剩格局延续,价格将承压偏弱。 【焦煤焦炭】焦煤现货竞拍跌幅收窄,部分煤种小幅反弹 | | | | | | | | HE A F V FE W | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/04 | | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | ...