Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Steel prices have weak driving force for continuous increase. The current low - volatility structure remains unbroken. Short - term long positions can be appropriately closed near price integer levels, and in the absence of new drivers, operate with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon face a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with prices oscillating. Their fundamentals are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, but policy benefits and cost support may lead to a risk of price decline after a rise [3]. - Coking coal and coke futures are oscillating after basis repair. There is currently no sign of an upward trend in coking coal, but it is difficult to break below the high - cost margin of 1000. After short - term valuation repair, it waits for the spot rhythm. Industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot [5]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to rising port inventories. However, as iron - making molten iron is expected to stabilize and rebound at the end of the month and steel mills need to replenish inventories, the decline in iron ore prices may slow down [6]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - The supply and demand of steel are both weak, but the inventory can still be depleted, mainly contributed by rebar. The iron - making molten iron output may not have reached the bottom, but the subsequent resumption of production power is also strong. There is also incremental demand for winter storage replenishment in the future. Short - term long positions can be appropriately closed near price integer levels, and operate with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - For trading strategies, short - term long positions should pay attention to closing, and hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage can be rolled, or option strategies can be used to assist spot sales [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The demand for silicon iron and manganese silicon has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply is still high, with a large pressure of over - supply in the medium term. The cost support for manganese silicon has strengthened. The overall fundamentals are under pressure, and industrial customers can sell short for hedging at high prices [3][7]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has a fourth - round price cut expectation, and the trading atmosphere is general. The futures market is oscillating after basis repair. There is potential for inventory replenishment in the future. Industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [5][7]. Iron Ore - The iron - making molten iron output has stabilized in the short term, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, putting pressure on prices. However, as the iron - making molten iron is expected to rebound and steel mills need to replenish inventories, the decline in iron ore prices may slow down [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal futures is driven by macro policy expectations and changes in supply-demand dynamics, despite the fundamental market conditions remaining unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Policy Factors - The release of the "Key Areas for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)" in mid-December has been a pivotal factor in shifting market sentiment, imposing stricter coal consumption standards for power generation and heating [1]. - This policy aims to eliminate outdated production capacity and suppress low-price homogeneous competition, which is expected to reshape the overall valuation of the coal industry [1]. - The Central Economic Work Conference's stance on addressing excessive competition has provided emotional support for undervalued black commodities [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Coking coal supply is characterized by weak domestic production and strong imports, with major coal-producing regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia reducing output as they complete annual production assessments [2]. - Safety production policies have tightened, further exacerbating supply constraints, while imports of Mongolian coal have remained high, with customs clearance rates peaking at over 1,600 trucks per day in mid-December [2]. - Despite rumors of restrictions on imported coal, actual customs data indicates that the influx of Mongolian coal has not been hindered, leading to an accumulation of inventory at ports [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The high volume of imported Mongolian coal is suppressing domestic coking coal prices, as the typical seasonal supply contraction is offset by the influx of imports and high social inventory levels [3]. - Price differentiation among coal types is evident, with main coking coal and fat coal showing resilience, while other types like lean coal and gas coal face significant price pressure due to weak demand and ample supply [3]. - The steel industry is currently in a traditional consumption lull, with average daily pig iron production dropping to approximately 2.265 million tons, leading to reduced consumption of coking coal and coke [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Demand Outlook - Coking coal inventories at steel mills are at 8.0499 million tons, with a usable days supply of 13.02 days, while independent coking plants hold 10.3629 million tons with 12.4 days of supply [4]. - The winter storage replenishment by coking steel enterprises is expected to be delayed this year due to sufficient social inventory and the later timing of the Spring Festival [4]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that coking coal futures may maintain a strong trend, but the sustainability of this rebound is uncertain, with potential inventory pressures from imports and steel production levels limiting price increases [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure on the real - world end still exists, and the performance of the futures market is under pressure. Although steel is in the off - season and continues to destock, with the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, there is support for furnace materials. However, the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains, the downstream restocking willingness is low, the iron ore port inventory accumulates, and the inventory of the coking coal and coke industry chain increases. The fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market performance is under pressure. In the short term, the futures market is under pressure, but there is still room for a rebound at low levels after the weak adjustment before spring due to the winter storage restocking expectation [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory has increased significantly, iron water production is basically stable, steel mills make small - scale restocking, and the game between upstream and downstream is strong. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly month - on - month, the arrivals this period have decreased month - on - month, and the demand side has seen a slight recovery in the steel mill profit rate, but the restocking demand release is still slow [2][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply is weak and demand is stable. Steel mills are destocking, and the fundamentals are marginally strengthening. Short - term electric furnace profits are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from short - process steel enterprises still has support. It is expected that the spot price will oscillate. This week's arrivals are low, the daily consumption of steel enterprises is stable, the inventory of long - process steel mills is high, and the total inventory has decreased slightly [2][8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. After January, there is an expectation of steel mill复产. With the gradual start of winter storage restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The fundamentals still support the price, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the New Year approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and after January, the import pressure will ease. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still room for the futures market valuation to repair [2] - **Coking Coal**: Before the parade, the coal mine production is tightened, and the futures market oscillates. The overall production has declined, and the spot price has slightly decreased. The supply is affected by accidents, safety inspections, and self - initiated production cuts. The import is still at a high level, and the demand has slightly declined in the short term. The futures market is expected to be supported before the parade, and the short - term fundamentals' contradiction is not prominent [10][11][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The supply - demand pattern of loose supply continues, the upstream inventory pressure is obvious, which suppresses the upward space of the futures market. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The cost has slightly loosened, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply contraction is insufficient to achieve high - level destocking [15] - **Ferrosilicon**: The upstream supply pressure is gradually alleviating, but the market has weak supply and demand in the terminal off - season. It is difficult for the ferrosilicon futures price to have an independent upward trend. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. The cost is at a relatively high level, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium industry is weak, and the supply has decreased significantly [17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply still has the expectation of disturbance, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The macro is neutral, the supply is under pressure in the long term but difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term, and the demand is weak [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. The daily production has rebounded, the demand is weakening, and the industry is in the stage of clearing out at the bottom of the cycle [3][13][15] 3.5 Steel - The spot market transactions are generally weak. Steel mill profitability has improved, iron water production has stopped falling and stabilized, and the decline in the output of the five major steel products has slowed down. The off - season demand has declined seasonally, but there is still support for demand. The overall steel inventory continues to destock, but the mid - stream inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and there is an expectation of weakening demand. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate at a low level [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial product index was 2254.18, down 0.17%. The steel industry chain index on December 25, 2025, was 1976.20, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a five - day increase of 0.29%, a one - month decline of 0.20%, and a year - to - date decline of 6.26% [103][105]

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续偏强运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 19 日独立焦企焦炭库存增加 3.78 万吨 91.1 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存则下降 1.55 万吨至 633.73 万吨，因港口焦炭库存减少 9.15 万吨， 焦炭综合库存下降 0.71%至 964.28 万吨,同比增幅回落至 4.93%。 现货市场：港口现货市场持稳运行，日照港准一级冶金焦出库 1460；现货 市场交投氛围一般，两港库存较上一个交易日略有增加。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利 16 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利 35 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 65 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-23 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 66 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂盈利率较上周持平，高炉开工率环比下降 0.16%至 78.47%，高炉炼铁产能利用率减少 0.99%至 84.93%，日均铁水产量较上周减少 2.65 万吨至 226.55 万吨，为今年 2 月份以来最低值，同比去年减少 2.86 万吨。 上游焦煤：供应方面，煤矿炼焦煤库存延续累库，港口进口炼 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 观望情绪较浓，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 25 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1739 元/吨，日内录得 0.03%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.91 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +329 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1460 元/ 吨，周环比下跌 1.35%。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改 善，不过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌震荡，叠加 1 月后 钢厂存复产预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 25 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1124 点，日内上涨 0.00%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.36 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+3101 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The PTA market is expected to have a better situation than previously anticipated, with a de - stocking balance sheet in December and no inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [1]. - The silver market has increased the probability of a short - term peak, and excessive bullish sentiment is not recommended [1]. - The iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term, and is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The coking coal market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [3]. - The steel market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [4]. - The pig price is expected to rebound and then weaken in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in southern curing and farmers' slaughter volume [4]. - The palm oil price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [5]. - The soybean meal price is expected to run in the range of 2700 - 2790 yuan/ton in the short term, and the price will continue to be under pressure if the supply pressure increases and demand does not improve [6]. - The copper price has reached a new high driven by macro and supply factors, but lacks demand support, and price fluctuations should be vigilant [7]. - The crude oil supply is still sufficient, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [8]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate [9]. - Gold should not be overly bullish, and mid - term high - level oscillation is expected [10]. - The bond market should not be bearish in the short term, and a waiting - and - watching attitude is recommended [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Polyester market inventory is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, and the average polyester sales rate is 34.7%. Near - term maintenance is frequent, and the balance sheet will de - stock in December. PTA supply has not recovered, and there is no inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [1]. Silver - The US labor market shows no obvious pressure, which is beneficial to silver, but the upward momentum is insufficient, and the probability of a short - term peak has increased [1]. Iron Ore - From December 15th to 21st, global iron ore shipments decreased. Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals are at a high level in the same period of history, and port inventories are rising. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants decreased, and the supply - side pressure was released. Market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [3]. Rebar - The steel market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, with low inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range due to cost support [4]. Pig - The pig price rebounded recently, but the overall supply is loose, and it is expected to weaken after the rebound. Attention should be paid to southern curing and farmers' slaughter volume [4]. Palm Oil - The palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1st to 20th decreased by 7.44% compared with the previous month, which supports the price. The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [5]. Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal has obvious bottom support. The main M05 contract is expected to run in the range of 2700 - 2790 yuan/ton in the short term. If the supply pressure increases and demand does not improve, the price will continue to be under pressure [6]. Copper - The copper price has reached a new high driven by macro and supply factors, but downstream procurement demand is suppressed, and there is a situation of high price but no market. Price fluctuations should be vigilant [7]. Crude Oil - The EU's oil and LNG imports from the US have decreased. The oil supply is still sufficient, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [8]. Natural Rubber - The domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the off - season, and the supply elasticity is weakening. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the tire market is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [9]. Gold - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates with a limited range in 2026. Gold should not be overly bullish, and mid - term high - level oscillation is expected [10]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The follow - up monetary policy relaxation time point is worthy of attention. The bond market should not be bearish in the short term, and a waiting - and - watching attitude is recommended [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". For specific varieties, the outlook for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon is "oscillation", while the outlook for coking coal is "oscillation with a slight upward trend" [5][7][8][10][12][13][15][17] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry have limited highlights. However, the policy tone remains positive, and there are still expectations for winter storage and restocking. The futures market is expected to have room for a rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited. The overall market presents an oscillatory pattern [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - Steel is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. Although there is a slight improvement in demand and inventory is decreasing, the inventory level is still high year - on - year, and the upside space for the futures market is limited. Iron ore has a strong support at the bottom of the futures market due to the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Coal and coke are in a state of low - level valuation repair. Coke's supply - demand structure may tighten, and coking coal's fundamentals will continue to improve marginally [1][2] 2. Sub - sectors Analysis Iron Element - Iron ore: The demand support from molten iron is weakening, the port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills have not started restocking. The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. Scrap steel: Supply is decreasing while demand is stable. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. With the expected steel mill复产 in January and the start of winter storage and restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the import pressure will ease in January. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the futures valuation still has room for repair [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of the manganese silicon market remains loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upside space for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation in the medium term. Ferrosilicon: The upstream supply pressure has eased, but the market has weak supply and demand in the off - season. The upside space for the futures price should not be overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern will further intensify in the long term, with the price center continuing to decline [3] 3. Index Information - On December 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.22% on that day, 0.35% in the past 5 days, 0.04% in the past month, and decreased by 6.04% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续偏强运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 19 日独立焦企焦炭库存增加 3.78 万吨 91.1 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存则下降 1.55 万吨至 633.73 万吨，因港口焦炭库存减少 9.15 万吨， 焦炭综合库存下降 0.71%至 964.28 万吨,同比增幅回落至 4.93%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利 16 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利 35 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 65 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-23 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 66 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂盈利率较上周持平，高炉开工率环比下降 0.16%至 78.47%，高炉炼铁产能利用率减少 0.99%至 84.93%，日均铁水产量较上周减少 2.65 万吨至 226.55 万吨，为今年 2 月份以来最低值，同比去年减少 2.86 万吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期现行情】 期货盘面：05 焦炭开盘 1741，收盘 1746，减仓 552 手，短 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1746 元/吨，日内录得 0.20%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.87 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 552 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭维持供需两弱格局，基本面未明显改善，不 过下游冬储补库和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌，叠加 1 月后钢厂存复产 预期，关注后续下游补库和生产节奏。 焦煤：12 月 24 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1132 点，日内上涨 0.62%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.05 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-8652 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平。目 前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰 动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位反 ...

周二期价略偏强运行,现货小涨,但涨价后成交转弱。往后看,从钢厂检修计划来推导,铁水产量尚未见底,但后续可能复 | 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤( (家古,A10%,V27%,0. 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 1000 产的动力也不差;更重要的是,时间再往后,还有冬储补库的增量需求,给低位价格提供支撑。煤焦的盘面异动是否会带动 现货企稳甚至出现补库的行为,是决定当下行情能否再延续的重要驱动力。从估值的角度,可适当短多,设置止损;止盈 -200 标位观察前一处高点位置。 【硅铁锰硅】能源端犹动较多,同上走强 近期有关能耗双控,清洁能源和反内卷等政策消息较多,双硅价格受情绪助推向上。由于电力和煤炭是双硅的主要成本,短 期情绪发酵下,双硅价格仍将偏强为主。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润不佳,铁水向下调整,直接需求走 焦炭基差(右轴) 弱。随着终端需求淡季来临,负反馈压力大。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足, 中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。对比双硅,近期猛硅供需弱于硅铁 = 青岛港: ...