Economic Indicators - July 2025 domestic CPI is expected to be approximately 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate remaining at 0.1%[3] - July PPI is projected to be around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase to -3.3%[3] - Industrial added value is expected to slightly decline to 6.3% year-on-year in July[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to rise to 5.0% year-on-year in July[3] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to decrease slightly to 2.5% year-on-year cumulative[3] - Exports in dollar terms are expected to continue a slight increase to around 6.0% year-on-year[3] Financial Metrics - Trade surplus for July is projected at $1,002 million, down from $1,148 million[4] - Monthly credit increment is expected to be 2,900 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous 22,400 million yuan[4] - Total social financing monthly increment is forecasted at 16,000 million yuan, down from 41,993 million yuan[4] - M2 year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain stable at 8.3%[4]

核心观点 7月制造业PMI为49.3%，环比下降0.4pct，处于历史同期偏低水平。 7月PMI弱于季节性，需求疲软是主因。7月新订单和新出口订单指数明显低于历史同期均值；生产指数虽受高温、暴雨洪涝灾害影响，季节性走 弱，但总体而言仍持平历史同期水平，7月生产相对有韧性。 市场关注7月PMI，更看重需求端。7月PMI给出两则信号回应： 其一，后续出口或边际放缓，高频数据亦显示出口有走弱迹象。美洛杉矶港口进口吞吐量下滑，对美航线运价下滑。韩国最新披露7月前20日出口 同比-2.2%，而上月为+8.3%。 其二，"反内卷"之下市场交易了一轮上游涨价预期，但当需求偏弱，上游涨价交易的持续性有待观察。 正文 国家统计局7月31日发布PMI数据，7月制造业采购经理指数为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点。 一、7月制造业PMI表现偏弱，需求疲软是主因。 7月制造业PMI环比增速处于历史同期偏低水平，表现偏弱。 7月制造业PMI为49.3%，连续四个月处于荣枯线下方，环比下降0.4pct，处于历史同期偏低水平（近10年同期均值为0.0pct），仅高于2021年和 2022年。 生产指数受部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素 ...

Core Insights - Thai officials stated that the tariff rates are consistent with the region, which maintains Thailand's competitiveness and promotes exports [1] Group 1 - The alignment of tariff rates with regional standards is emphasized as a strategy to enhance Thailand's competitive edge [1] - The promotion of exports is highlighted as a direct benefit of maintaining these tariff rates [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coke**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The overall industrial product futures market is under pressure, and the short - term market is affected by factors such as weak demand and "anti - involution" policies. Different varieties have different fundamentals and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices dropped significantly. This week, thread steel's apparent demand weakened, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil's demand and production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and the market's negative feedback pressure was low under the low - inventory pattern. The overall domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a relatively high level. The "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact, and the futures market was under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices declined. The global shipment was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume was weak. The port inventory was volatile and might decline slightly in the short term. Steel mills had good profitability, had no motivation to cut production actively, and replenished iron ore stocks. The iron - water production remained high. The market sentiment cooled down, and the price was expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price dropped significantly during the day. The fifth round of price increases by coking enterprises had thin profits, and the daily production increased slightly. The overall inventory continued to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was good. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the coke price was more affected by steel prices [4] Coking Coal - The main - contract price of coking coal hit the daily limit during the day, and the far - month price also hit the limit. The total inventory increased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. The "anti - involution" and coal over - production inspection policies had a positive impact on prices. The further downward space was relatively limited [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price rose first and then fell during the day. The long - term expectation of manganese ore inventory accumulation was improved, but it would still accumulate in the second half of the year, with a small short - term accumulation range. The forward price of manganese ore increased, and the price bottom of silicon manganese gradually rose [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon - iron price rose first and then fell during the day. The iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 242. The export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The silicon - iron price followed the silicon - manganese trend, and the power cost might decline again [7]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan indicates a moderate rise in inflation expectations, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy outlook [1] - Output and exports in Japan are likely to remain weak, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [1]

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议指出，宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效 应。 如何看待当前经济运行状况？如何展望下半年经济形势？如何推动物价合理回升？下半年是否有必要推 出增量政策？要如何加力促消费？如何更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳？如何有效推进"反内卷"的工 作？带着这些问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了上海财经大学校长刘元春。 下半年需重点关注投资 《21世纪》：上半年我国经济增长5.3%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。如何看待上半年经 济运行状况？ 刘元春：得益于超预期的出口和一揽子增量政策带来的消费反弹，中国经济上半年维持5.3%的增速， 显示出中国经济的韧劲和弹性。 在肯定上半年经济成绩的同时，也要看到一些结构性变化。当前，供给端增长要好于需求端，制造业韧 劲好于服务业，中央投资好于地方投资，大中型企业运行状况好于中小企业。更重要的是，6月份的一 些数据变化，包括投资增速回落、房地产市场出现波动等，暗示了下半年经济运行的新逻辑。 《21世纪》：如何展望下半年经济形势？出口、投 ...

预计三季通胀率为1.8%，核心通胀率为3.1%。 加拿大央行：预计在当前的关税下，二季度GDP萎缩1.5%，三季度GDP增长1%。 人口增长乏力及投资疲软将制约加拿大下半年经济表现。 2025年下半年及2026年消费增长或持续温和。 在新贸易环境下，预计加拿大下半年出口有望"企稳"。 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold and copper prices are experiencing slight upward trends, while oil prices are also on the rise [1][11] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan may impact commodity prices positively, particularly for gold [11][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales are seeing an expanded decline, while used car sales are stabilizing; however, tourism consumption remains strong [2][3] - The average selling price of home appliances has shown mixed performance year-on-year, with some categories increasing and others decreasing [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - Export activities are slightly weakening, with a decrease in container shipping rates and a drop in scheduled container bookings from China to the US [5][4] - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 15%, which may influence trade dynamics in the region [6] Group 4: Production Insights - Steel prices continue to rise, supported by market sentiment and cost factors, with steel mill profitability improving [9][8] - The glass market is showing signs of improvement, although downstream demand remains weak, limiting price increases [10] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The average occupancy rate of hotels and the average daily rate per available room are both on the rise, indicating a robust tourism sector [3]

Economic Overview - China's GDP reached 66 trillion RMB, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, equivalent to approximately 9.19 trillion USD, accounting for 62% of the US GDP [1][14] - The first half of the year saw total imports and exports of 21.8 trillion RMB, with exports at 13 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 7.2% [3] Export Dynamics - Despite a significant drop in exports to the US, overall exports remained positive, driven by increased trade with ASEAN, which saw a 13% rise, making it the largest buyer [3] - Exports to the EU increased by 6.6%, while Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa experienced double-digit growth [3] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, but excluding real estate, the growth rate surged to 6.6% [6] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11%, but the decline narrowed from 14% at the beginning of the year to 9% by June, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market [8] Manufacturing Sector - The industrial growth rate for large-scale manufacturing was 6.4%, with equipment manufacturing exceeding 10% and high-tech manufacturing at 9.5%, indicating a shift of investment towards sectors capable of producing advanced technologies [8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales totaled 24.5 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 5%, but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at -0.1%, suggesting weak demand [10] - Consumer sentiment is affected by concerns over housing, education, and healthcare costs, leading to increased savings rather than spending [11][12] Future Outlook - The stability of infrastructure and manufacturing sectors is expected to continue, while the recovery of the real estate market hinges on consumer willingness to take on debt [7] - The economic landscape is characterized by a search for new markets in exports, structural adjustments in investments, and cautious consumer spending [16]

Group 1 - The overall fund positions increased marginally in Q2 2025, with a notable increase in the ChiNext index and a decrease in the main board [6][10][14] - In terms of industry allocation, public funds increased their holdings in technology and cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to manufacturing and consumer sectors [25][31] - The allocation to high-dividend sectors rose, with significant increases in insurance holdings [50][52] Group 2 - The public funds significantly increased their positions in the ChiNext index by 1.74 percentage points to 15.18% and reduced the main board by 1.87 percentage points to 72.46% [14][24] - The technology sector saw increased allocations, particularly in electronics, healthcare, and home appliance manufacturing, while the food and beverage sector saw a decline [31][34] - The telecommunications and financial sectors experienced notable increases in allocation, while discretionary and staple consumer sectors were reduced [28][31] Group 3 - The report highlighted a marginal increase in the stock positions of four types of funds, with the balanced mixed funds showing a more significant increase [11][19] - The concentration of the top ten holdings decreased, with the top ten holdings accounting for 16.70%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [24] - The report indicated a continued rise in the allocation to Hong Kong stocks, while the allocation to the Hang Seng Technology index saw a decline [15][17]