Market Performance - The three major US stock indices reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.37% at 46,315.27 points, the S&P 500 up 0.49% at 6,664.36 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.72% at 22,631.48 points [4] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.22%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.21% [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Market expectations for further monetary easing have increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October rising to 89.8% from 87.4% the previous day [6] Trump Gold Card Announcement - Former President Trump announced the launch of the "Trump Gold Card," which individuals can apply for at a cost of $1 million and businesses for $2 million, projecting over $100 billion in revenue [7][9] Apple iPhone Pricing - Apple CEO Tim Cook stated that the high starting price of the new iPhone is not due to Trump's tariff policies, marking a rare direct response to such claims [10] Precious Metals Market - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index rose by 4.76%, closing at 283.70 points, surpassing the previous historical high of 277.84 points [13] - Spot gold increased by 1.11% to $3,684.80 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 1.15% [13] - Spot silver rose by 2.14% to $43.0854 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.28% to $43.380 per ounce [13] Oil Market Trends - Oil prices fell for the third consecutive day, with WTI crude oil futures for October down 1.4% to $62.68 per barrel, and November Brent crude down 1.1% to $66.68 per barrel [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision has led to a boost in market risk appetite, particularly benefiting technology stocks [1] - Major U.S. stock indices closed at all-time highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.94% [1] Group 2: Gold and Commodities - Following the Fed's rate cut, gold prices fell over 1%, with December futures closing at $3,678.3 per ounce, down 1.06% [4] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with light crude futures at $63.57 per barrel and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, both down 0.75% [13] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, purchasing shares at $23.28 each, which led to a 22% surge in Intel's stock price, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987 [6] - Novo Nordisk's stock rose over 6% following positive trial results for semaglutide's weight loss effects [11] Group 4: European Market Response - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4% and indicated a cautious approach to future rate cuts, contributing to a positive response in European stock indices [9] - European indices saw gains, with the FTSE 100 up 0.21%, CAC 40 up 0.87%, and DAX up 1.35% [9]

Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors are assessing the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and future rate cut paths, leading to increased market risk appetite and a rise in technology stocks [1] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showed a significant rebound, indicating an improvement in regional manufacturing activity [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices closed at record highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, S&P 500 up 0.48%, and Nasdaq up 0.94% [1] Group 2: Gold and Commodities - Following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, some investors chose to take profits, coupled with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, putting downward pressure on gold prices [4] - As of the close, December gold futures were priced at $3678.3 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.06% [4] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline due to geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. crude demand, with light crude futures at $63.57 per barrel and Brent crude at $67.44 per barrel, both down 0.75% [13] Group 3: Company Developments - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment to purchase Intel common stock at $23.28 per share, with Intel integrating Nvidia's graphics processing technology into its next-generation PC chips [6] - Following the announcement, Intel's stock surged over 22%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987, while Nvidia's stock rose approximately 3.5% [6] - Novo Nordisk's stock increased by over 6% due to significant weight loss results from its drug semaglutide [11]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, indicating a moderate recovery in the Japanese economy with stable trends in exports and production [2] - The core CPI inflation, excluding fresh food, is expected to remain subdued due to economic slowdown, despite a gradual decline in the impact of rising food prices [2] - There were two dissenting votes for a rate hike, suggesting a shift in sentiment regarding inflation risks, with calls to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan announced plans to begin selling its ETF and J-REIT holdings, with an annual target of approximately 330 billion yen for ETFs and 5 billion yen for J-REITs [4] - The central bank's ETF holdings have reached 35 trillion yen since it began purchasing ETFs in 2010, particularly increasing after the monetary easing in 2013 [5] - Following the announcement, the market reacted with a decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate and a rise in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield by 4 basis points to 1.635% [6][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the A - share major indices closed generally lower. Although the economic data in August was under pressure, the financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. The RMB was under short - term pressure due to Powell's hawkish remarks, but the dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts this year, which would reduce the RMB depreciation pressure and provide room for domestic policy easing. Therefore, stock indices still have long - term upward potential, and it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped from the previous level to 4487.2, a decrease of 61.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed a downward trend. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread decreased by 20.6 to 1576.4 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: Most of the seasonal - monthly spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, except for the IH seasonal - monthly spread which increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Position Holdings**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position decreased by 3206 to - 24,119 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 dropped by 52.9 to 4498.11 [2]. - **Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume increased by 7637.19 billion yuan to 31,666.43 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by 127.92 billion yuan to 24,054.44 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume increased slightly, and the reverse repurchase operation volume increased while the maturity volume decreased [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased, the Shibor increased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option increased, and other indicators showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market, technical, and capital aspects all showed a weakening trend in the Wind market strength - weakness analysis [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year and after a 9 - month pause. The A - share major indices closed generally lower, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic economic data in August was under pressure, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, while expected, has led to cautious signals that dampen market optimism for continued easing in the future [5][6]. Market Reactions - The Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 1.1%, reaching an intraday high, while popular Chinese stocks in the U.S. market experienced declines, with JD.com, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Baidu, and Alibaba down by 1%, Xpeng down by 2%, and Bilibili and NIO down by 3% [2][5]. - European stocks saw gains, with the German DAX index increasing by 1%, the UK FTSE 100 opening up by 0.21%, the French CAC40 rising by 0.41%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.64% [5]. Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points signals a response to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation, indicating a gradual approach rather than a shift to aggressive easing [6]. - The dot plot from Fed officials suggests two more rate cuts this year, but only one by 2026, contrasting with traders' expectations of two to three cuts next year [5]. Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2 basis points to 4.057% [5]. - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 96.98, while spot gold rose by 0.15% to 3665.13 [7].

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada announced a 25 basis point reduction in the policy interest rate to 2.50% on September 17, 2023, in response to rising unemployment and inflation nearing 2% [1][2] - The Canadian economy showed signs of slowing growth, with a projected 1.5% decline in real GDP for Q2, significantly impacted by tariffs and trade uncertainties [2] - The unemployment rate increased to 7.1% in August, with job losses concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, reflecting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [2][3] Group 2 - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate was reported at 1.9%, with core inflation indicators around 3%, indicating a potential easing of price pressures due to the recent removal of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports [3] - The Bank of Canada aims to balance risks in a weakening economy with low inflationary pressures, focusing on maintaining public confidence in price stability while supporting economic growth [3]

每经编辑｜金冥羽 据央视新闻，加拿大银行（央行）当地时间9月17日宣布，将政策利率降低25个基点至2.50%。 此前一天，加拿大统计局公布的数据显示，8月份消费者价格指数同比增长至1.9%，表明通胀率正在接近2%，为央行调整利率提供了窗口。同时，受美国 关税影响，加拿大失业率也在升高。多重因素之下，加拿大银行做出降息决定。 值得一提的是，北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，美联储FOMC将公布利率决议结果和经济预期。凌晨2点30分鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 8月CPI通胀为1.9%，与7月MPR时相同；若剔除税项，通胀为2.4%。央行偏好的核心通胀指标近月大约在3%，但从环比动能看，年内早些时候的上行趋 势已消退。更广泛的一揽子指标——包括替代性核心通胀度量与CPI各分项价格变动的分布——仍显示潜在通胀大约在2.5%。加拿大政府近期决定取消大 部分针对从美国进口商品的报复性关税，意味着相关商品未来的上行价格压力将有所减轻。 在经济走弱且通胀上行风险较小的背景下，管理委员会认为下调政策利率更有助于在前景中更好地平衡风险。展望未来，贸易格局变化带来的扰动效应在 拖累经济活动的同时，仍将增加成本。管理委员会将谨慎推进，特别关 ...

智通财经9月17日讯（编辑 赵昊）周三（9月17日）美股盘前，三大指数期货涨跌不一。 截至发稿，道琼斯指数期货涨0.17%，标普500指数期货涨0.02%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.01%。 个股方面，特斯拉、英伟达盘前跌超1%；与此同时，明星中概股整体走强，百度涨8.6%，阿里巴巴涨2.5%，拼多多、蔚来涨近3%。 前一交易日，美股三大股指在震荡交投中收低，投资者在美联储利率决议前保持谨慎。北京时间周四凌晨02:00，该行将公布利率决议；半小时后，鲍威尔 将出席记者会。 芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场预计美联储本次降息25个基点的概率高达94%，另外的6%则是降息50个基点。前一天，美国财长贝森特就指出，25个 基点的降息已被市场消化。 Pimco前首席经济学家Paul McCulley表示，最有可能的结果是较为保守的降息25个基点，"因为我不知道当前情况下该如何解释降息50个基点，而且这不是 鲍威尔主席想要传达的信息。" 值得一提的是，美联储还会在公布决议时发布利率预测"点阵图"，给未来的利率行动提供指引。发稿前不久，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗说，当前利率至少比正常 水平高了100个基点。 正在交易的欧洲股 ...