早上好，先来看下重要消息。 美国宣布将对进口铜产品征收50%关税，COMEX铜期货价格暴跌近18% 据新华社消息，根据美国白宫网站30日发布的事实清单，美国总统特朗普当日签署公告，从8月1日起将 对进口的铜半成品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的关税。 周三纽约尾盘，COMEX铜期货价格一度下跌18.03%，报4.6115美元/磅，截至收盘跌17.7%。 特朗普称与韩国达成贸易协议，将对巴西征收50%关税 据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月30日，特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。根据 协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于由美方拥有并控制的投资项目。此外，韩国还将采购价值 1000亿美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品，并承诺再投资一笔大额资金，用于其本国投资目的。该金额 将在韩国总统李在明两周后访美举行双边会谈时公布。 特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致，美国将对韩国征收15%的关税。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩国将 对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，特朗普签署行政命令，对巴西加征40%关税，使总关税额达到 50%。 白宫表示，对巴西产品 ...

每经编辑｜毕陆名 美东时间周三（7月30日），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指跌0.38%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数跌 0.12%。交易员预计9月降息的可能性低于50%，之前为60%左右。 热门科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨超2%，博通涨超1%，苹果跌超1%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收跌0.22%，报13985点。 周三纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约较周二纽约尾盘跌0.38%，至11.8万美元下方，盘中跌穿11.6万美元。 周三纽约尾盘，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.2113元，较周二纽约尾盘跌305点，日内整体交投于7.1753~7.2146元 区间。 黄金价格下跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.72%，报3266.90美元/盎司；10月合约跌1.72%，报3295.60美元。 周三纽约尾盘，COMEX铜期货一度下跌18.03%，报4.6115美元/磅，截至收盘跌17.7%。 国际油价站上70美元，WTI 9月原油期货收报70.00美元/桶，布伦特9月原油期货收报73.24美元/桶。 消息方面，美联储决议继续维持基准利率在4.25%至4.50%区间。鲍威尔认为，政策的不断变化对经济影响仍不确 ...

当被问及美联储理事鲍曼和沃勒在利率决议中的反对票时，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，FOMC大多数成员 认为，鉴于通胀高于目标，维持适度限制的立场是合适的。两位反对者清楚地解释了他们的想法，我们 希望看到这种清晰的思路和表达，而今天我们所有人都看到了这一点。（格隆汇） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged despite internal disagreements and external pressures, reflecting a cautious approach to current economic conditions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 2 to keep the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - This decision impacts the cost of overnight borrowing among banks, influencing the broader economic funding landscape [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Two Federal Reserve officials, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, opposed the decision, advocating for a rate cut due to controlled inflation and a potentially weakening labor market [1] - This marks the first instance since late 1993 where multiple officials voted against the interest rate decision [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.56%, currently at 99.439 points before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond narrowed to less than 2.8 basis points, reported at 4.3481%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.6 basis points, falling below 3.89% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold decreased by 0.76%, currently at $3301 [2] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.23%, the Dow Jones remained roughly flat, the Nasdaq increased by 0.43%, the biotechnology index rose by 1%, the Philadelphia semiconductor index increased by 1.2%, the banking index rose by 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.9% [2]

FOMC Statement - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to pass the interest rate decision with a voting ratio of 9-2, with Governors Bowman and Waller likely voting against it [1] - There is an anticipation of minimal substantive changes in the wording, possibly simplifying the expression of economic uncertainty and acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1] - The balance sheet reduction is likely to remain unchanged, with monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS [1] Interest Rate Outlook - There is a focus on how to interpret the "two rate cuts" implied by the June dot plot and whether there will be any clues regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The emphasis on economic data is expected to continue, maintaining a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting decision-making communication style [1] - The stance on inflation and tariffs may remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to price stability; if tariffs are highlighted as an upward risk to inflation, it could indicate a more hawkish tone than anticipated [1] Term and Independence - In response to frequent pressures from Trump, it is likely that there will be no substantial response, with a reaffirmation of maintaining independence and professionalism during the term [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with a 97.4% probability of no change in July and a 34.6% probability of maintaining rates in September [1][6] - President Trump has called for a rate cut, stating "the Federal Reserve must lower rates" just hours before the Fed's decision [1][6] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has declined by 1% as of the report time, indicating weakness in Chinese concept stocks [1][7] Group 2 - New Oriental's Q4 net profit has decreased by 73.7% year-on-year, attributed to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment, despite a 9.4% increase in net revenue to $1.243 billion [9][11] - For the fiscal year 2025, New Oriental's revenue is projected to grow by 13.6% to $4.9 billion, with a net profit increase of 20.1% to $372 million [11] - The company expects revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10% [11]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The Bank of Japan is set to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact market expectations and investor sentiment [1] - Key Point 2: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy [1] - Key Point 3: China's official manufacturing PMI for July will be released, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and economic activity [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Switzerland's actual retail sales year-on-year for June will be reported, which may reflect consumer spending trends in the region [1] - Key Point 2: The press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be closely watched for insights on future monetary policy direction [1] - Key Point 3: France's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for July will be published, providing a snapshot of the labor market [1] - Key Point 2: The Eurozone's unemployment rate for June will be reported, which is essential for assessing economic stability in the region [1] - Key Point 3: The Challenger Job Cut Report for July will indicate the number of layoffs in the U.S., offering insights into employment trends [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: Germany's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is important for gauging inflationary pressures [1] - Key Point 2: Canada's GDP month-on-month for May will be reported, providing insights into economic growth [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 will be published, which is a key indicator of labor market health [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for June will be released, which is a critical measure of inflation [1] - Key Point 2: The U.S. personal spending month-on-month for June will be reported, indicating consumer behavior and economic activity [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. labor cost index quarter-on-quarter for Q2 will be published, which is important for understanding wage pressures [1] Group 6 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index month-on-month for June will be released, providing further insights into inflation trends [1] - Key Point 2: The Chicago PMI for July will be published, which is a key indicator of manufacturing activity in the U.S. [1] - Key Point 3: The EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending July 25 will be reported, which is significant for energy market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is anticipating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of maintaining the current rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting [1][2]. Interest Rate Expectations - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in July is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 2.6%. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 34.6%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 63.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 1.7% [2]. Market Reactions - Prior to the Federal Reserve's announcement, President Trump reiterated calls for rate cuts, stating "the Fed must lower rates" [3][9]. - As of 23:00, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down by 1% [4][11]. - The U.S. dollar experienced a sharp increase, while gold prices fell below $3,300 [5][6]. Company Performance - New Oriental's stock saw a decline of over 10% at one point, with a subsequent narrowing of losses to 4.58%. The company reported a 73.7% year-on-year decrease in net profit for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [10][13]. - New Oriental's Q4 revenue increased by 9.4% to $1.243 billion, but the significant drop in net profit was primarily due to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment. Excluding the Oriental Selection business, core education revenue grew by 18.7% to $1.09 billion [13][15]. - For the fiscal year 2025, New Oriental's revenue grew by 13.6% to $4.9 billion, with net profit increasing by 20.1% to $372 million. The company expects revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10% [15]. Sector Trends - The automotive sector showed weakness, with companies like Li Auto and NIO experiencing declines of over 3% [16].

③关注加拿大央行对美国与欧盟、美国与日本等国家签订的贸易协议的看法。 ④关注加拿大央行通胀、经济、就业、油价、汇率等的看法。 ①市场普遍预计加拿大央行将维持利率于2.75%不变。 ②关注加拿大央行对未来降息可能性的暗示。 注：北京时间21:45，加拿大央行将公布利率决议。 ...