1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 20, the central bank guided the LPR to decline synchronously through policy rate cuts, which will drive down the loan costs of enterprises and residents and reduce the financing costs of the real economy. Meanwhile, state - owned big banks and some joint - stock banks lowered deposit rates, with the current deposit rate of state - owned big banks falling below 0.1% and the 1 - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1%. Driven by liquidity, small - cap stocks were active, and the stock index showed a strong oscillation. In the short term, the market may enter a shock consolidation phase, and short - term long positions should consider taking profits on rallies and beware of adjustment risks [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.52%, down 2.07bp; DR007 at 1.59%, down 1.57bp; GC001 at 1.52%, up 3.00bp; GC007 at 1.62%, up 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.64%, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, down 10.00bp; 1 - year treasury at 1.44%, up 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.54%, up 1.10bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, up 1.20bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.46%, up 3.00bp [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 430 billion yuan of repurchase maturing, the net investment on the day was 920 billion yuan [3] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.54% to 3898.2; the SSE 50 rose 0.43% to 2716.6; the CSI 500 rose 0.46% to 5747.4; the CSI 1000 rose 0.83% to 6146. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 100 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with jewelry, household light industry, and other sectors leading the gains, while the shipping port sector fell sharply [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For IF, the closing price of the current - month contract was 3862, up 0.6%, with a trading volume of 72250 (up 4.0%) and an open interest of 237717 (up 1.2%); for IH, the current - month contract closed at 2699, up 0.4%, with a trading volume of 37208 (up 2.2%) and an open interest of 78851 (up 2.3%); for IC, the current - month contract closed at 5621, up 0.5%, with a trading volume of 67678 (down 9.4%) and an open interest of 199111 (down 2.3%); for IM, the current - month contract closed at 6019, up 0.7%, with a trading volume of 173350 (down 9.7%) and an open interest of 309017 (down 2.7%) [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF's current - month contract premium was 9.90%, IH's was 7.47%, IC's was 19.78%, and IM's was 24.26% [7]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,200 yuan/ton and closed at 122,870 yuan/ton, a change of -0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,167 lots, and the open interest was 63,519 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly in the morning and accelerated its decline near the mid - day close, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest increased. The daily MACD's red bar area did not significantly expand and was close to turning green. There might be a downward trend in the short - term. The 60 - minute line showed a top divergence near 126,400 before May Day and a bottom divergence near 123,000 after May Day. Pay attention to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 and the short - term support level of 122,000 - 123,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was lowered by 425 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was generally weak, with no recovery in downstream purchasing willingness and merchants reducing sales volume. The premium and discount increased slightly compared to the previous trading day and remained stable recently. Jinchuan nickel premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, imported nickel premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton, and nickel bean premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 23,142 (-329.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,098 (90) tons [2]. Strategy - The trading of refined nickel spot has been relatively sluggish recently, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is estimated to be around 122,000 - 123,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. For single - side trading, focus on range operations; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,970 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 133,035 lots, and the open interest was 128,677 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated weakly throughout the day, closing with a negative line. The trading volume of the 07 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased substantially. The daily MACD's red bar area failed to expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. Continue to pay attention to the resistance level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market lowered their morning quotations by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The market trading was average, and market confidence remained low. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared to the previous trading day, mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,175 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,175 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 360 - 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 946.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Recently, due to the decline in nickel - iron raw material prices, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has continued to weaken. It may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is estimated to be 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. The single - side trading strategy is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 123,660 yuan/ton and closed at 123,850 yuan/ton, a -0.67% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,247 lots, and the open interest was 57,470 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel oscillated at a high level in the morning and declined from the high in the afternoon, closing with a small positive line. The trading volume of the 06 main contract shrank compared with the previous trading day, while the open interest increased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a possible short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence near 126,400 before the May Day holiday and a bottom divergence near 123,000 after the May Day holiday on the 60 - minute line. Pay attention to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 and the short - term support level of 122,000 - 123,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan Nickel was lowered by 1,175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was generally average, and the premium and discount increased slightly compared with the previous trading day and remained stable recently. The premium of Jinchuan Nickel remained unchanged at 2,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,471 (-30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 202,008 (6786) tons [2]. Strategy - The spot trading of refined nickel has been relatively sluggish recently, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is estimated to be around 122,000 - 123,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell on rallies for hedging. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 13,005 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 89,358 lots, and the open interest was 125,759 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel followed the nickel futures to oscillate, closing with a doji negative line. The trading volume of the 07 contract shrank compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest was almost the same. The red column area of the daily MACD failed to expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. Continue to pay attention to the resistance level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted the same as the previous trading day in the morning, but the market trading support was insufficient, and market confidence was still low. The weakening of the afternoon session led most spot merchants to lower the price by 50 yuan/ton to promote sales. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically the same as the previous trading day, and the transaction price of a steel mill in South China was mostly at 940 yuan/nickel (delivered at the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,275 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,225 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 345 - 545 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron including tax changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 944.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Recently, due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has continued to weaken. It may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is estimated to be 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell on rallies for hedging. For single - side trading, it is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, overnight LME copper rose slightly and then declined. The domestic demand orders may gradually slow down as the peak season turns to the off - season. The Sino - US trade negotiation progress is expected to boost copper prices in the short term. Copper prices are expected to reach the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance and potential price fluctuations [1]. - For aluminum, alumina and Shanghai aluminum are oscillating strongly. Aluminum ingots continue to show a slight de - stocking state. The short - strong and long - weak pattern of aluminum prices continues. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption situation and subsequent tariff negotiation dynamics [1][2]. - For nickel, macro sentiment has improved, and the Philippine nickel ore event has attracted market attention. In the short term, nickel ore is relatively strong, but the overall trend is still oscillating. If domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate inventory, it will put pressure on nickel prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Trump pressured the Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, and the dollar's V - shaped trend restricted copper price increases. China's April social financing and new RMB loans data and M2 - M1 spread changes were reported. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,075 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 1,749 tons. Domestic demand orders are relatively stable but may slow down. Sino - US trade progress is expected to boost copper prices, with prices expected to reach 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and potential price drops [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum are oscillating strongly. Alumina AO2509 closed at 2,979 yuan/ton with a 3.51% increase, and AL2506 closed at 20,255 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase. Aluminum ingot prices changed from a discount to a premium. Some downstream processing fees changed. Aluminum ingots continued to de - stock slightly. The short - strong and long - weak pattern of aluminum prices continues, and attention should be paid to inventory - consumption and tariff negotiations [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose 0.35%, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.92%. LME inventory decreased by 84 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 398 tons. Nickel ore prices are strong, and some stainless steel production has decreased, but demand - side inventory has increased. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has recovered, and the demand for ternary precursors has decreased slightly. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, but overall, it is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes of various copper products such as flat - water copper, scrap copper, and downstream products were reported. LME and COMEX inventory changes, as well as other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss, were also provided [3]. - **Lead**: The average price and other indicators of lead remained stable, with some minor changes in lead ore prices and processing fees. LME and SHFE inventory changes and import profit and loss were also reported [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories were reported. Import profit and loss and other indicators were also provided [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes of various nickel products, including electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, nickel ore, stainless steel, and new energy products, were reported. Inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as import profit and loss, were also provided [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices, including the main settlement price, spot price, and alloy price, increased. TC remained stable, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories were reported [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price of tin increased, and the price of tin concentrate also rose. Inventory changes in LME and SHFE, as well as import profit and loss, were reported [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [7][8][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 were presented [12][15][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [20][22][23]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [25][27][29]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 were presented [31][33][35]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [38][40][42]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: Holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. Has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [45]. - **王珩**: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia. Serves as a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. Focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research and new energy industry chain dynamics [45]. - **朱希**: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK. Serves as a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks new energy industry chain dynamics [46].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2505 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,570 yuan/ton and closed at 124,630 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 101,917 lots, and the open interest was 67,940 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, closing with a small yang - yin line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line before the holiday. The spot market of electrolytic nickel had sluggish trading recently. Attention should be paid to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 450 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased slightly. After the holiday, the purchasing intention of downstream customers recovered, and merchants also had a certain intention to replenish stocks. The overall performance of refined nickel spot trading was okay, and the premium was basically stable compared to before the holiday, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,125 (- 183.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 (- 336) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Variety Strategy - Recently, the premium of refined nickel spot has been slowly declining, and the support of the premium has weakened. Coupled with the top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,680 yuan/ton and closed at 12,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,113 lots, and the open interest was 89,353 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel mainly fluctuated throughout the day, showing a slightly stronger trend in the afternoon, closing with a small yang line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly, and there was still short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted prices unchanged compared to the previous trading day. Affected by the weak market, market confidence was still low. Some downstream enterprises made low - price restocking actions, and most spot merchants maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was flat compared to the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 415 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 9.50 yuan/nickel point to 959.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to the continuous decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has been continuously weakening. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side operation is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].