1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries show different trends, and investors need to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to specific situations [5][8][10] - Some industries may face price fluctuations and uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.52% to 111.240 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 108.165 yuan, the 5 - year main contract was flat at 105.915 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% to 102.478 yuan [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 1.66%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 2.72%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 3.09% [7] - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9] 3.3 Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 977.28 with a 3.97% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 17,085 with a 10.86% increase [10] - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [10][11] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,120 - 3,240 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,280 - 3,300 yuan/ton [12] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [13][14] 3.5 Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 795 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder spot price was 680 yuan/ton [15] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may support prices, but the impact may be limited. From a technical perspective, iron ore futures may rebound in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [15][16] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at high levels [17] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the supply may increase, and attention should be paid to the pressure. For coke, the supply is stable, and the increase in demand supports prices. From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [18][19] 3.7 Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.43% to 6,480 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.20% to 6,100 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price rose 80 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price rose 80 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton [20] - The cost of ferroalloys has limited downward space, and the overall oversupply pressure continues. The recent improvement in profitability in the main production areas weakens the cost support. The short - term surplus of silicon - iron may increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate [20] 3.8 Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the US delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and the possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran [21] - The increase in net long positions in CFTC futures and options shows that US funds are more optimistic about the future of crude oil. However, the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed, and the US and Iran may cease fire for a month for negotiations. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for INE crude oil [22][23] 3.9 Polyolefins - Last trading day, the Hangzhou PP market mostly declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE market also fell [24] - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure has increased, the futures fluctuate frequently, and the industry's operating rate has continued to decline. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for polyolefins [24][25] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.06%. The mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable at 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [26] - The current main contradiction is cost - driven. The short - term price may maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance in the second half of the month, the trend of crude oil prices, and changes in tire export orders [26][28] 3.11 Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.37%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 2.27%. The Shanghai spot price of whole - latex increased to around 16,300 yuan/ton [29] - The current core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the approaching domestic production area opening and slow demand recovery and inventory pressure. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and the price may maintain a wide - range oscillation [29][30] 3.12 PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell 4.41%, and the spot price in the East China region decreased by 250 yuan/ton [31] - The current core contradiction is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts, the start of domestic spring demand, and high inventory. In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price may oscillate strongly, but the upward space is restricted by high inventory. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength [31][33] 3.13 Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%, and the spot price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,880 yuan/ton [34] - The recent main contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price oscillates weakly, but the cost support and the arrival of the demand peak season limit the downward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the export policy will be adjusted and the demand connection after April [34][35] 3.14 PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell 4.22%. The PX profit has dropped significantly, and the PXN spread has dropped to around 65 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread has dropped to around 88 US dollars/ton [36] - Affected by the supply concerns of upstream raw materials, domestic refineries have reduced their loads. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are continuously compressed, and the processing fee has room for repair. The PX price may oscillate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] 3.15 PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 4.15%. The PTA processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton [38] - Affected by the shrinkage of raw material supply, PTA production cuts have increased. The cost support has collapsed recently. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and changes in crude oil prices [38] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 6.23%. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.45%, and the inventory in some main ports in East China has increased [39][40] - The short - term Strait passage has loosened, and the import is expected to shrink. The inventory may gradually decrease, and there is support below. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and cautious treatment is required, paying attention to the negotiation progress and Strait situation [40] 3.17 Short Fibers - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell 3.28%. The short - fiber device load has slightly decreased [41] - Recently, the short - fiber supply has declined, and the terminal factory inventory has decreased. The overall supply - demand has weakened slightly. The short - term still trades based on the cost logic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and the resumption progress of downstream factories [41] 3.18 Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell 3.38%. The bottle - chip processing fee is adjusted to around 1,200 yuan/ton [42] - The supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, and the processing fee continues to repair. The manufacturer's price - holding intention is relatively strong. Due to the changeable Middle East situation, the price fluctuations of crude oil and PTA may increase. Cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation dynamics, and cost changes [42][43] 3.19 Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,240 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase [44] - The supply of soda ash remains high, the inventory has decreased to some extent, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The short - term price may oscillate steadily under emotional support [44] 3.20 Glass - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,064 yuan/ton with a 1.12% decrease [45] - The glass production line continues to shrink, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the downstream order recovery is slow. The cost support is still there, and the subsequent market sentiment may fluctuate [45][46] 3.21 Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,557 yuan/ton with a 1.27% decrease [47] - The supply of caustic soda has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The price of alumina has risen, which supports the price of caustic soda. The 50% and 32% caustic soda prices are bifurcated. Attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export order implementation, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [47][48] 3.22 Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,210 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [49] - The port inventory of pulp continues to decrease, and the domestic supply has changed little. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The risk of needle - leaf pulp fluctuation is relatively large, and broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable with cost support [49] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton [50] - The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the demand in the consumer end is improving. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict [50] 3.24 Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [51] - The inflation expectation has almost erased the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the global risk preference is suppressed. The supply of refined copper is at risk of contraction, and the demand has a solid bottom. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak oscillation with a bottom [51][52] 3.25 Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton with a 0.42% increase, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,962 yuan/ton with a 2.18% decrease [53] - Alumina shows a cost - driven passive rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The price of alumina may enter an oscillatory adjustment state, and the price of electrolytic aluminum may oscillate weakly, but there is support at the bottom [53][55] 3.26 Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,880 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease [56] - The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, and the domestic refined zinc production has increased. The real - estate sector may drag down the galvanizing field. The zinc price may be under pressure due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the strong - dollar logic [56][57] 3.27 Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,470 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [58] - The production of primary lead enterprises is increasing, and the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises is delayed. The demand is flat, and the lead price may run weakly due to the lack of fundamental highlights and macro - pressure on the non - ferrous sector [58][59] 3.28 Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.81% to 348,620 yuan/ton [60] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The supply of refined tin is slightly eased, and the demand has short - term support. The short - term price of tin has support below, but the overseas situation is still highly uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [60][61] 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 0.59% to 133,890 yuan/ton [62] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is still in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [62] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.60% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.97% to 8,594 yuan/ton [63] - Brazil's soybean harvest progress is over 60%, and the domestic soybean import has slowed down. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. The price of oil and meal may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [63][64] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm

Market Overview - On March 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.78%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.5%[3] - The total trading volume on March 24 was 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 350 billion yuan compared to the previous day[1] Sector Performance - All sectors except for oil and coal saw gains, with notable increases in environmental protection, textiles, non-ferrous metals, and building materials[1] - The main sectors attracting capital inflow were electric power, chemical pharmaceuticals, and optical electronics, while photovoltaic equipment, passenger vehicles, and precious metals experienced significant outflows[4] Market Sentiment - The recent market rally is characterized as a rebound from oversold conditions, indicating a short-term speculative nature[1] - The gold market has seen a decline, primarily influenced by short-term events, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing concerns about the credibility of the US dollar[1] Policy and Economic Developments - The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported that over 1.05 million elderly individuals have benefited from a subsidy program for elderly care services, with a total of 23.5 billion yuan in vouchers issued, leading to 115 billion yuan in consumption[7] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to construct over 30 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, enhancing power regulation capabilities by over 70% by 2030[10] Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in foreign investment in Chinese assets, with a growing interest from foreign public funds, private equity, and sovereign wealth funds[13] - On March 23, a total of 21.8 billion yuan flowed into stock ETFs, with broad-based ETFs becoming a preferred "safe haven" for investors amid market volatility[14]

Fixed Income Research - The overall yield of credit bonds has declined, with a significant decrease in the short to medium term, while the long end has mostly increased, with changes ranging from -2 BP to 1 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds continues to grow, remaining at historically high levels, with corporate bonds maintaining zero issuance and a decrease in the issuance amount of targeted tools [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds has increased, with corporate bonds and company bonds seeing net financing growth, while medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and targeted tools have decreased [2] - The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market has increased, with a rise in most varieties except for corporate bonds [2] - The credit spread for short to medium-term notes and corporate bonds has narrowed, while the long-end spread has widened [2] - The demand for credit bonds is robust, suggesting a continuation of the recovery trend, although adjustments are expected due to various factors [2] Real Estate Policy - Continuous optimization of real estate policies by central and local governments is aimed at stabilizing the market, with a focus on controlling increments, reducing inventory, and improving supply [3] - The government work report emphasizes the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a shift from "breaking the problem" to "deepening" the new development model [3] - The recovery in sales will significantly impact bond valuations, and funds with higher risk tolerance may consider early positioning in companies showing improved financing and sales performance [3] Urban Investment Bonds - The likelihood of defaults in urban investment bonds is low, making them a key focus for credit bond allocation [4] - The reform of financing platforms is nearing completion, with a focus on resolving operational debt risks [4] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is expected to see marginal improvements as the weather warms, but macroeconomic factors may still impact steel prices [6] - The copper market is currently influenced by limited industry fundamentals, with future attention on oil prices and geopolitical situations [6] - The aluminum market is affected by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, impacting production and export, which in turn affects aluminum prices [6] - Gold prices are currently suppressed by high oil prices, but there is potential for a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease [6] - Lithium prices are adjusting due to economic outlook concerns, but demand recovery could support prices [6] - Rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [6] Investment Ratings - The steel industry and non-ferrous metals industry are rated as "positive," with specific companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum rated for "increased holdings" [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - The situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain. Before the war shows obvious signs of easing, precious metals may maintain a weak operation, and the gold price is testing the support at $4000 per ounce [1] - The marginal tightening direction of US dollar liquidity remains unchanged. Platinum and palladium are priced based on the logic of industrial metals. The consumption - end narrative of large - scale application of hydrogen energy still needs time to materialize, and the consumption end has insufficient support for platinum and palladium prices. However, due to the rigid constraints at the mine end of platinum and palladium resources, there is still a resource - end premium, and the strong support below for platinum and palladium is temporarily seen at the 350 - yuan - per - gram level [2] Summary by Related Information Market News - Fed Governor Milan said that if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rate hikes may be needed, but currently, there is no need to consider it. It is still expected that there will be four interest rate cuts in 2026, and the inflation dot - plot at the end of this year is raised to 2.7%, expecting overall inflation to rise [3] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US economic recession to 30% and still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and December [3] - The global central bank director of the World Gold Council, Shaokai Fan, said that gold's role as a hedge against de - dollarization and geopolitical risks is expected to prompt central banks that were previously absent from the market to buy this precious metal this year [3] - An Israeli official said that the US has set April 9 as the target date to end the war against Iran, meaning there are about 21 days left for continued fighting and negotiations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, gold prices are suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar after the oil price soars due to the Middle - East conflict. The oil - dollar - gold transmission mechanism has two core paths, and the short - term co - movement of oil and gold prices is difficult. Before the situation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict becomes clear, short - term hasty layout has high risks [3]. - In the long - term, the US's strategic intervention in Venezuela and Iran weakens the global trust in the US dollar as a reserve asset, and the long - term allocation logic of gold is further strengthened. The US's deteriorating fiscal situation also undermines the credibility of the US dollar as a credit currency [3]. - The Fed's monetary policy has not undergone a fundamental change. The current economic environment and AI "rigid demand" limit the Fed's room for interest rate hikes. Short - term policy fluctuations are just noise and do not change the medium - term trend [3]. - The US dollar exchange rate has entered a long - term downward cycle, and gold, as a hedging and alternative asset for the currency system's credit, will benefit significantly and has medium - term allocation value after the over - decline [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Review - Gold has experienced a "roller - coaster" market, rising to a historical peak of over $5500 and then giving back the quarterly gains [5]. - At the March FOMC, the Fed will not cut interest rates without inflation progress. The Fed has adjusted its forecasts for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation [7]. - Powell seems more hawkish, believing that the impact of the US - Israel - Iran conflict on the economy is short - term, being worried about the rise in inflation expectations, and noting that the unemployment rate has been stable since last September [9]. Dynamic Game among Oil, Dollar, and Gold - In the short - term, avoid the strengthening of the US dollar caused by rising oil prices. The "oil - dollar agreement" still supports the US dollar's strength, and the US dollar index and gold prices show a significant medium - term negative correlation. The time window with a negative 60 - day rolling correlation coefficient from 2010 - 2026 accounts for 78.5% [11][16]. - The US's military actions in Venezuela aim to control global oil reserves, enhance its military presence, and strengthen the oil - dollar system. Oil's strategic value lies in its irreplaceability in the military, and it forms a positive cycle of "oil control - military advantage - US dollar reserve status" [20]. - The long - term US - Iran war is likely to turn into a war of attrition, which will erode the foundation of the US dollar's hegemony [25]. - The relationship between gold and oil prices has weakened. Since the US - Israel - Iran conflict in March 2026, their correlation has dropped from 0.8 to near zero and then turned negative. The reference value of the gold - oil ratio has decreased significantly [29]. The US Fiscal Situation in 2026 - The abolition of IEEPA has led to a decline in the effective tariff rate. The new 122 - clause tariff measures and the expansion of the exemption list will also affect the tariff revenue [35]. - The Trump administration's tariff substitution plans cannot change the upward trend of the fiscal deficit. The current effective tax rate has decreased significantly, and if the 122 - clause tariff is not extended, the fiscal revenue from tariffs will drop sharply [39]. - If the war expands, the US may increase defense spending. Trump has proposed to increase the 2027 fiscal year's defense budget to $1.5 trillion, a more than 50% increase from 2026 [45]. - The US's current fiscal situation is in a historically dangerous range, with the federal public debt - to - GDP ratio approaching 100%. If the conflict leads to an economic recession, the fiscal pressure will increase sharply [46]. - The sharp increase in the deficit may lead to the selling of US Treasury bonds and an increase in the demand for gold [56]. Monetary Policy and Gold - The current economic environment does not support the Fed's interest rate hikes. Compared with 2022, the US labor market is weak, inflation is moderately high and stable, and there is no large - scale fiscal rescue plan [62]. - AI's rigid demand restricts the Fed's interest rate hikes. The US economy in 2026 is highly dependent on AI - related investments, and higher interest rates will have a fatal impact on AI enterprises [68]. Wash Transaction - Wash is considered a hawkish figure, but large - scale balance - sheet reduction is operationally challenging and conflicts with the Trump administration's goal of maintaining a loose financial environment. Adjusting the asset structure is a more feasible policy goal [74]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, despite the high gold price, central banks' official demand for gold remained strong, with a cumulative purchase of 863 tons. The UK's gold exports to China in 2025 were significantly higher than China's official purchase volume [79]. Liquidity Impact - The long - term core trading line supporting the gold price is unlikely to reverse in the short - term. Liquidity risks may cause short - term gold price declines. Looking back at past liquidity crises, the gold price shows a phased pattern, and the Fed's crisis - response ability has been upgraded [86].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [3][8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to see marginal improvement in fundamentals as the weather warms up, indicating a potential recovery in demand [6][19]. - The copper market is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, with a focus on oil price trends and international developments [6][40]. - The aluminum sector is affected by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, impacting energy and production, which may influence aluminum prices [6][45]. - Gold prices are currently suppressed by high oil prices, but there is potential for a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease [6][52]. - Lithium prices are adjusting due to economic outlook concerns, but demand recovery could support prices in the future [6][56]. Industry Data Summary Steel - Steel production increased to 8.3982 million tons as of March 20, 2026, a 2.30% increase from March 13, 2026, but a 2.96% decrease year-on-year [21][19]. - The total steel inventory decreased to 19.2485 million tons, a 1.33% decline from the previous week, but an 8.26% increase year-on-year [28][19]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 85.53%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week [23][19]. Copper - The LME copper price was $12,000 per ton, down 5.77% from March 13, 2026, while domestic copper inventory decreased [42][40]. - The copper smelting fee was reported at -$67.20 per dry ton, indicating tight supply conditions [41][40]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum price was $3,300 per ton, down 5.43% from March 13, 2026, with domestic aluminum inventory showing mixed trends [46][45]. - The average price of alumina was reported at 2,752.00 yuan per ton, a 2.00% increase from the previous week [46][45]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell to $4,492.00 per ounce, a 10.57% decrease from March 13, 2026, influenced by high oil prices and geopolitical tensions [52][52]. - Silver prices also saw a significant drop, with COMEX silver at $67.81 per ounce, down 15.92% [52][52]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices were reported at 152,500 yuan per ton, a 3.17% decrease, while lithium hydroxide was at 149,500 yuan per ton, down 0.66% [57][56]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Light rare earth prices, such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide, decreased to 702,500 yuan per ton, down 12.46% [63][63]. - Tungsten concentrate prices were reported at 1,023,000 yuan per ton, down 2.39% [68][67].

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in precious metal prices on March 23 was due to the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, which led to high oil prices and market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing a sell - off in the precious metal market. However, as the market panic eased at night, precious metal prices rebounded [6]. - In the short term, with the temporary alleviation of market panic, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize, but the market may remain highly volatile due to the unstable Middle - East geopolitical situation, so investors are advised to trade with light positions. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which can support precious metal prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On March 23, 2026, London gold spot was at $4211.63/ounce, London silver spot was at $62.72/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4215.50/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $62.96/ounce. Compared with March 20, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 9.8% - 9.9% and silver down about 12.2% - 12.5% [5]. - For domestic futures, AU2604 was at 940 yuan/gram and AG2604 was at 15498 yuan/kilogram on March 23, 2026, with a decline of about 9.5% and 12.5% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Spread/Ratio - On March 23, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.01 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 134 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 20, 2026, the spreads increased, with the gold spread up 40.3% and the silver spread up 148.1% [5]. - The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 60.65 and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 66.96 on March 23, 2026, with increases of 3.4% and 2.7% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, with a decrease of 0.48% compared to March 19, 2026. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, with an increase of 0.41% [5]. - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 215961 contracts, the short - position quantity was 56092 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 159869 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity increased by 0.24%, the short - position quantity increased by 7.22%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 2.00% [5]. - For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 31125 contracts, the short - position quantity was 9244 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 21881 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity decreased by 6.55%, the short - position quantity increased by 5.91%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 10.97% [5]. Inventory Data - On March 23, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106746.00 kilograms, with a decrease of 0.09% compared to March 20, 2026. SHFE silver inventory was 364549.00 kilograms, with an increase of 0.57% [5]. - On March 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, with no change compared to March 19, 2026. COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, with a decrease of 0.59% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 23, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, with an increase of 0.21% compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.51, with an increase of 0.33% compared to March 19, 2026. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, with an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, with an increase of 3.29% [5]. - The VIX was 26.78 on March 20, 2026, with an increase of 11.31% compared to March 19, 2026. The S&P 500 was 6506.48, with a decrease of 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil was 98.09, with an increase of 3.70% [5]. Market Review - On March 23, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 8.62% to 940 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 11.67% to 15411 yuan/kilogram [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals have rebounded significantly. Trump unilaterally signaled negotiations, causing crude oil prices to drop sharply, and risk appetite to recover, driving the rebound of precious metals. The core drivers of the precious metals adjustment are the downward revision of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the medium to long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to move up due to geopolitical risks and concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process will continue to advance. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector's trend with relatively larger fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: - For沪金2606, yesterday's closing price was 942.80, down 99.22 (-9.52%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 370,312, and the open interest was 156,399. The spot premium was -21.81 [2]. - For沪金2604, yesterday's closing price was 940.00, down 99.22 (-9.55%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 386,422, and the open interest was 62,764. The spot premium was -19.01 [2]. - **Silver Futures**: - For沪银2606, yesterday's closing price was 15,411, down 2,214 (-12.56%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,259,324, and the open interest was 222,721. The spot premium was -142 [2]. - For沪银2604, yesterday's closing price was 15,498, down 2,216 (-12.51%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 136,668, and the open interest was 55,828. The spot premium was -229 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Gold**: Shanghai Gold T+D's closing price was 920.99, down 119.61 (-11.49%) from the previous day; London gold was at 4407.35 dollars per troy ounce, down 84.32 (-1.88%) [2]. - **Silver**: Shanghai Silver T+D's closing price was 15,269, down 2,511 (-14.12%) from the previous day; London silver was at 69.11 dollars per troy ounce, up 1.21 (1.79%) [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Gold**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 106,746 kg (down 99 kg), and the COMEX inventory was 32,032,542 troy ounces (down 21,733 troy ounces) [2]. - **Silver**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 364,549 kg (up 2,054 kg), and the COMEX inventory was 332,090,493 troy ounces (down 604,761 troy ounces) [2]. 3.4 Related Derivatives and Other Data - **SPDR Gold ETF**: The current holding was 1,053 tons, down 4 tons [2]. - **SLV Silver ETF**: The current holding was 15,514 tons, up 265 tons [2]. - **CFTC Speculators' Net Positions**: For gold, it was 159,869, down 3,263; for silver, it was 21,881, down 2,697 [2]. - **Other Related Indexes**: The US dollar index was 99.12 (down 0.40), the S&P 500 index was 6,581.00 (up 74.52), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.34% (down 0.05%), Brent crude oil was at 96.07 (down 8.34), and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9062 (up 0.0245) [2]. 3.5 Macro - information - **Iran Situation**: There are differences in statements between the US and Iran regarding negotiations. Trump said there were productive talks and a possible agreement in 5 days, but Iran denied having negotiations. Israel will continue to attack Iran and Lebanon, and the US military is considering sending troops to Iran [3]. - **Fed**: Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 92.8% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term volatility has increased due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes [4]. - As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retreated from their February 24 repair highs, with the previous rebound space mostly given back [4]. - The core disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected. After the nomination, the US dollar strengthened in the short - term, dragging down platinum and palladium. The nomination process and subsequent policy independence are still uncertain, and short - term monetary policy expectation games continue [4]. - Macroscopically, the judicial investigation of Powell shakes the US dollar's credit, the global central bank gold - buying wave continues, and the reserve value of platinum and palladium is prominent under de - dollarization. Geopolitical risks in Greenland provide periodic support, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged, with long - term loose environment still providing support [4]. - In the industrial sector, the supply - demand gap for platinum is clear, and the surge in hydrogen energy demand and South African production capacity constraints provide strong support. Palladium supply is rigid, and hybrid demand and strict emission policies support demand, with the spot market in tight balance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Platinum futures: The prices of pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610 are 457.75, 453.80, and 452.65 respectively, with price drops of - 58.80, - 60.75, and - 59.50, and price decline rates of - 11.38%, - 11.81%, and - 11.62% respectively. The持仓 volume is 13077 for all, and the trading volumes are 18262, 571, and 221 respectively [1]. - Palladium futures: The prices of pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610 are 327.85, 333.00, and 332.20 respectively, with price drops of - 46.50, - 40.95, and - 38.05, and price decline rates of - 12.42%, - 10.95%, and - 10.28% respectively. The持仓 volume is 4478 for all, and the trading volumes are 6786, 161, and 88 respectively [1]. Spot Market - Platinum: The Shanghai platinum price is 459.83 yuan/gram, with a price drop of - 49.05 and a decline rate of - 0.096%. The London platinum price is 1893.00 US dollars/ounce, with a price drop of - 85.00 and a decline rate of - 0.043%. The prices of Zhou Dafu platinum and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 745.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with price drops of - 44.00 and 0.00, and decline rates of - 0.056% and 0.000% respectively [1]. - Palladium: The Chinese palladium price is 350.00 yuan/gram, with a price drop of - 20.00 and a decline rate of - 0.054%. The Russian palladium price is 3774.84 rubles/gram, with a price drop of - 108.63 and a decline rate of - 0.028% [1]. Inventory - Platinum: The NYMEX inventory is 579,273.64 ounces, with no change. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts are 308,556.37 ounces, a decrease of 5011.6 ounces. The Shanghai Gold Exchange trading volume is 438.00 kilograms, an increase of 294.00 kilograms, and the trading amount is 21,006.18 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 13715.2 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Palladium: The NYMEX inventory is 248,373.69 ounces, an increase of 3196.9 ounces. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts are 211,887.35 ounces, an increase of 3196.9 ounces [1]. Related Derivatives and Indexes - Related indexes: The US dollar index is 99.16, a decrease of - 0.35; the S&P 500 index is 6,581.00, an increase of 74.52; the US bond yield is 4.34, a decrease of - 0.05; the Nasdaq index is 21,946.76, an increase of 299.15; the Dow Jones index is 46,208.47, an increase of 631.00; the US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 6.90, an increase of 0.01 [1]. - Related derivatives: The prices of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 940.00, 942.80, and 945.50 respectively, with decreases of - 99.22, - 99.22, and - 99.50. The prices of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 15498.00, 15411.00, and 15384.00 respectively, with decreases of - 2216, - 2214, and - 2217 [1]. Macroeconomic News - The Fed keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposes the decision and advocates a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The economic outlook is highly uncertain, and the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2]. - The US and Israel's military strikes on Iran have blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and improving service quality [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, and its impact on global markets, especially the price of gold, which has shown unusual behavior as a traditional safe-haven asset [2][7]. Group 1: Geopolitical Conflict and Market Reaction - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, marked by Israeli airstrikes on Iran's South Pars gas field and subsequent Iranian retaliation against oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, has led to a significant market downturn [2]. - Despite the traditional view of gold as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical turmoil, gold prices fell over 10% from March 16 to March 20, marking one of the largest weekly declines since the 1980s [2]. Group 2: Shift in Market Dynamics - The current market environment reflects a shift from a "risk-driven" to a "rate-driven" pricing logic, indicating that investors are prioritizing interest rate expectations over geopolitical risks [7]. - The Federal Reserve's recent adjustments to inflation expectations and interest rate projections have contributed to rising concerns about real interest rates, which have overshadowed fears related to the conflict [7][8]. Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold, as a non-yielding asset, has a high negative correlation with real interest rates; rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, prompting investors to shift towards yield-bearing assets [8]. - Institutional investors facing margin pressures or portfolio rebalancing needs may have been forced to liquidate gold positions, exacerbating the price decline [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to persist as long as the geopolitical situation maintains a cycle of "high oil prices—high inflation—high interest rates" [11]. - In the medium to long term, the fundamental drivers for gold remain intact, with potential shifts towards "stagflation" dynamics if high oil prices persist, which could lead to a decline in real interest rates and create new upward momentum for gold [12].